COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such

[dcar00 13861]

1 minute ago, Skipper said:

I think that's technically speculation on a large scale but the handful of hospitals that I did see tracking that (NY for example) seemed to be ~ 40% "with" COVID.  I never did see any Texas hospitals breaking that down which was disappointing.

hmm.  I wonder what the "with covid" percentage was for the previous hospitalization spikes.   

Also, did Texas ever give data by vaccinated vs. unvaxed for hospitalization/death?  it seemed canada and UK were providing that but couldn't find it for Texas or US.

[Skipper 5952]

Just now, dcar00 said:

hmm.  I wonder what the "with covid" percentage was for the previous hospitalization spikes.   

Also, did Texas ever give data by vaccinated vs. unvaxed for hospitalization/death?  it seemed canada and UK were providing that but couldn't find it for Texas or US.

It stands to reason that the "with covid" percentage would have been materially higher this wave compared to others give the estimated case rate was multiples of any other peak.  But it sucks we don't have that Data.   I mean I get everything was chaos the first few months but after that initial wave I don't understand why detailed reporting wasn't standardized.   As for the vax issue - same damn thing.  I feel like I've seen that reporting from a handful of Texas hospitals at times but not in the aggregate.

[Pato del Muerto 51913]

59 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

how do you know?

If you go to the Austin arcgis dashboard and look at the various 7 day moving average charts, you will see that the omicron peak is about 50% higher than delta (120 vs 80 approx) for new admissions but that the icu bed and ventilator use peaks are close to half of delta wave. 
 

I think we have data somewhere showing the avg hospital stay for omicron is shorter than the other peaks, so that’s one explanation- the Covid patients aren’t building up, they are getting turned around quicker and more often. 
 

but we also found out that some/many hospitals aren’t parsing data by being treated for Covid symptoms vs being treated for other things but testing positive for Covid. 
 

i guess one must also consider the staffing issues during the spikes- by omicron, more and more nurses and doctors had gotten sick or gotten vaxed and maybe that has led to fewer man-hours lost to sickness and quarantine.  Allowing for a higher capacity. 

Edited February 9, 2022 by Pato del Muerto

[Guest Lobo]

I'm still confused.  Got my last round of TEXCares results back.  I'm N-negative, but S-positive.  So that means I've been vacc'd and boosted, but have not had Covid-19 in the last 12 months?  My PCR said otherwise.  Good news is whatever that "stat" is, mine is back over 2500 like the old days.  Down to clown! 

[Anastasis 23191]

18 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm still confused.  Got my last round of TEXCares results back.  I'm N-negative, but S-positive.  So that means I've been vacc'd and boosted, but have not had Covid-19 in the last 12 months?  My PCR said otherwise.  Good news is whatever that "stat" is, mine is back over 2500 like the old days.  Down to clown! 

Correct that is what the antibody testing would indicate. 

[Guest Lobo]

So I'm guessing my PCR that said I had it was wrong then?  I would think TEXCares is kinda the gold standard for what lay people like me can have access to?

 

[Anastasis 23191]

1 minute ago, Lobo said:

So I'm guessing my PCR that said I had it was wrong then?  I would think TEXCares is kinda the gold standard for what lay people like me can have access to?

Maybe false positive PCR, or maybe you just didn't convert on the nucleocapsid specific antibody as result of the vaccine antibodies knocking it out before you could mount a measurable N response? No idea. Not sure what data exists regarding extent of N conversion in someone that is vaxxed adn boosted. What kinda of PCR and where did you get it?

[Guest Lobo]

Appreciate your feedback.  I know people that were convinced they had Covid-19 are a fucking pain in the ass, but I got really sick ~15 days ago when the other three members of my house had it.  I had two separate PCR tests (waited 3-4 days on results) but both tests done after major exposure (first youngest and wife) and then many days later (when oldest had it).  Got 'em both done at an express clinic affiliated with our hospital group during early January and then late January.  Was just thinking I had finally gotten it after two years of duck and dodge and was pleased as sick as I was that I didn't have a more severe reaction and take up a hospital bed.  Then got the random third blood draw call from TEXCares on Monday, went in yesterday, results today saying N-negative/S-positive.  Threw me for a curve.  Maybe I just had the vomit equivalent of malaria?  

[dcbc 14179]

6 hours ago, Lobo said:

So I'm guessing my PCR that said I had it was wrong then?  I would think TEXCares is kinda the gold standard for what lay people like me can have access to?

 

Did you have symptoms back when you tested or did you test based on exposure?

 

Nevermind, I read the subsequent post.

Edited February 10, 2022 by dcbc

[Pato del Muerto 51913]

On 2/9/2022 at 4:06 PM, Lobo said:

Maybe I just had the vomit equivalent of malaria?  

A little hydroxychloroquine would have taken care of that. 

[Anastasis 23191]

ATX numbers look pretty pretty good. 

[Stringer 1398]

7 day average admissions went up today.  You guys need to shot your gotdamn mouths.  

[Newdoc 3421]

On 2/9/2022 at 2:18 PM, Pato del Muerto said:

But the moon is made of cheese, and cheese breeds bacteria for flavor/texture. So we are goners either way. 

[52-80 18962]

Hot off the press. Norway repeals all regulations and restrictions around Covid. 

Covid is determined to no longer be an unusual threat requiring measures that imposes burden on both society and individuals. 
 

Long term govt planning will be made, on the basis that covid is something that everyone will always “live with”

[Hpara759 1777]

4 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Hot off the press. Norway repeals all regulations and restrictions around Covid. 

Covid is determined to no longer be an unusual threat requiring measures that imposes burden on both society and individuals. 
 

Long term govt planning will be made, on the basis that covid is something that everyone will always “live with”

 

[Pato del Muerto 51913]

I thought we don’t want to be like those socialist Scandinavian countries. 

[52-80 18962]

And not everyone has access to hospitals anyway so whats the worry

[BrazilHorn 6552]

Deaths for Travis County Week ending 2/11. 33 deaths. Highest single week since week ending Sept 24th.

They break down as follows:

40 to 49 (1)

50 to 59 (4)

60 to 69 (10)

70 to 79 (11)

80+ (7)

Hopefully these will tail off as cases overall have come down. Get vaxxed bitches. You may still get sick but you have a much lower chance of dying.

[Pato del Muerto 51913]

New Admits has hit a wall and is holding in the 50s to low 60s over the past week.  I’ve given some thought to why, and haven’t come up with anything. 
 

the “stealth omicron variant” or whatever picking up steam?

[Armybrat 40464]

44 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Deaths for Travis County Week ending 2/11. 33 deaths. Highest single week since week ending Sept 24th.

They break down as follows:

40 to 49 (1)

50 to 59 (4)

60 to 69 (10)

70 to 79 (11)

80+ (7)

Hopefully these will tail off as cases overall have come down. Get vaxxed bitches. You may still get sick but you have a much lower chance of dying.

Are they keeping stats on how many of those are vaxxed/unvaxxed?

[BrazilHorn 6552]

55 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

Are they keeping stats on how many of those are vaxxed/unvaxxed?

They have at state level some tracking. I can try and dig out. One data point state published was that unvaxxed in Texas are 17x more likely to die from Covid than vaccinated folks are. 

[Snake Diggity 4545]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

New Admits has hit a wall and is holding in the 50s to low 60s over the past week.  I’ve given some thought to why, and haven’t come up with anything. 
 

the “stealth omicron variant” or whatever picking up steam?

Seems unlikely another variant since that doesn’t seem to be the story anywhere else.  Need to give it another handful of days to see, but for now I’m thinking/hoping it’s just a lag on this last wave.

[texasdago 7376]

Yesterday's new admissions were 39 so will be interesting to see if there is another drop today

[babysdaddy 2708]

https://www.dallascounty.org/Assets/uploads/docs/hhs/2019-nCoV/2022-COVID-19-Summaries/2022-Summaries-02/DCHHS COVID-19 Summary 02-11-2022.pdf

 

Dallas county back to levels before Christmas. Case peak was week ending 1/8

[Pato del Muerto 51913]

The hospitalizations are back to dropping after last week’s short lived issue. 7 day avg below 50 at 45, and new admissions is 30. So graphically it is just a little shoulder on the downward side. Positivity rate and transmission rates are also dropping. 
 

so that’s good. 

[South Austin 51409]

So anything to this, or just more CNN fear porn?

Quote

The BA.2 virus -- a subvariant of the Omicron coronavirus variant -- isn't just spreading faster than its distant cousin, it may also cause more severe disease and appears capable of thwarting some of the key weapons we have against Covid-19, new research suggests.

New lab experiments from Japan show that BA.2 may have features that make it as capable of causing serious illness as older variants of Covid-19, including Delta.

And like Omicron, it appears to largely escape the immunity created by vaccines. A booster shot restores protection, making illness after infection about 74% less likely.

BA.2 is also resistant to some treatments, including sotrovimab, the monoclonal antibody that's currently being used against Omicron.

As BA.2 subvariant of Omicron rises, lab studies point to signs of severity

[dcbc 14179]

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

So anything to this, or just more CNN fear porn?

As BA.2 subvariant of Omicron rises, lab studies point to signs of severity

This "second wave" just keeps on keeping on

Edited February 18, 2022 by dcbc

[Brisketexan 103139]

2 hours ago, South Austin said:

So anything to this, or just more CNN fear porn?

As BA.2 subvariant of Omicron rises, lab studies point to signs of severity

I'm really pulling for it being CNN fear porn.

Which is my second least favorite porn [pouring one out for NowThis].

Edited February 18, 2022 by Brisketexan

[BrazilHorn 6552]

22 deaths for Travis County w/e Feb 18th. I think we are coming down from the Omnicron related peak (which was last week with 33).

They break out as follows:

40 to 49 (2)

50 to 59 (6)

60 to 69 (6)

70 to 79 (1)

80+ (7)

Here is mortality rate by age group for Travis County pandemic to date:

<1 (0%)

1 to 9 (0%)

10 to 19 (0.004%)

20 to 29 (0.041%)

30 to 39 (0.113%)

40 to 49 (0.368%)

50 to 59 (0.967%)

60 to 69 (2.888%)

70 to 79 (5.773%)

80+ (12.205%)

Once again if you have autoimmune issues, BMI >40 and/or 60 years old or greater you should be vaccinated. Latest state of Texas data shows you are 45X more likely to die from CV19 if you aren't vaccinated.

I know at this point everyone is entrenched but I just feel better saying it.

[Hate 20037]

My best friend’s mom is in the hospital now. She would not get vaccinated and has every one of those you mentioned. It’s not looking good. She refused to get vaccinated but his dad did. He shook off Covid fairly easily even though he has all of those comorbidities as well.

[Brisketexan 103139]

My best friend’s mom is in the hospital now. She would not get vaccinated and has every one of those you mentioned. It’s not looking good. She refused to get vaccinated but his dad did. He shook off Covid fairly easily even though he has all of those comorbidities as well.

As much as we say FAFO, I don’t know if I’ll ever stop getting angry at people who commit suicide by stupidity. Fucking fuck.

[hookemATL 11496]

23 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

As much as we say FAFO, I don’t know if I’ll ever stop getting angry at people who commit suicide by stupidity. Fucking fuck.

Just be happy that they were able to own you one last time. In YOUR face. 

[BrazilHorn 6552]

1 hour ago, Brisketexan said:

As much as we say FAFO, I don’t know if I’ll ever stop getting angry at people who commit suicide by stupidity. Fucking fuck.

That’s why i keep doing my little PSA

[Brisketexan 103139]

That’s why i keep doing my little PSA

I wish it mattered. There is no convincing them, because by this point, the fate worse than death is “admitting you were wrong.”

[Armybrat 40464]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I wish it mattered. There is no convincing them, because by this point, the fate worse than death is “admitting you were wrong.”

Kinda like....aggy.

[Hate 20037]

My friend’s mom didn’t make it. She passed away earlier this afternoon. She’ll be in that list this week. Fuck Covid.

[BrazilHorn 6552]

2 hours ago, Hate said:

My friend’s mom didn’t make it. She passed away earlier this afternoon. She’ll be in that list this week. Fuck Covid.

Sorry to hear that my man. 

[dcbc 14179]

4 hours ago, Hate said:

My friend’s mom didn’t make it. She passed away earlier this afternoon. She’ll be in that list this week. Fuck Covid.

Sorry Bud

[Hate 20037]

She was a sweet lady. The type that would wake up in the middle of the night and drive to Ft Worth from Round Rock when her daughter told her she was sick and needed help with a newborn. She also made the best damn chocolate chip cookies ever. I haven’t had a chance to talk to my friend yet. He’ll reach out when he can, but he’s got to look out for his dad now who I am sure is hurting right now. I’m sure it’s even worse since he got vaccinated and she didn’t.

[Brisketexan 103139]

She was a sweet lady. The type that would wake up in the middle of the night and drive to Ft Worth from Round Rock when her daughter told her she was sick and needed help with a newborn. She also made the best damn chocolate chip cookies ever. I haven’t had a chance to talk to my friend yet. He’ll reach out when he can, but he’s got to look out for his dad now who I am sure is hurting right now. I’m sure it’s even worse since he got vaccinated and she didn’t.

I’m so sorry for your friend. And angry. And just….done. I just don’t know what to even think or feel about this shit anymore.

[Scheiss Meister 8300]

I'm sorry for your friend's and your loss, Hate.

[InkaUtexas 24819]

On 2/19/2022 at 4:39 PM, Hate said:

My friend’s mom didn’t make it. She passed away earlier this afternoon. She’ll be in that list this week. Fuck Covid.

Sorry Hate. 

[Buzzrock 14775]

I’m just….done.

Don’t tease us.

Very sorry for your friend Hate.

[Harrison Bergeron 1798]

On 2/19/2022 at 4:39 PM, Hate said:

My friend’s mom didn’t make it. She passed away earlier this afternoon. She’ll be in that list this week. Fuck Covid.

I'm really sorry man. Grace and peace to your friend and his family.

[South Austin 51409]

Sorry, Hate.  I wish I still wasn't reading stories like this.

[williemackgarza 1826]

Tough. Sorry for your bud.
Losing mom is tough.
I lost mine 6 years ago and still miss her daily.

[Pato del Muerto 51913]

Things are happening. 
austin msa staging dashboard finally moved to stage 4 a day or two ago, a couple day lag from 7 day avg of new admits dropping below 50. 
and today that number hit 25 which is the lower threshold for stage 4, so any decrease puts it into 15-24 stage 3 range. 
additionally, the community transmission rate dropped below 100 and the % positive rate dropped below 10. (That data is as of 24 hours ago)

only 11 new admits showing for today and 357 new cases (assuming those are tallies for yesterday) 

let’s hope for continued good numbers over the weekend so we are comfortably into stage 3(or better) when the numbers get plugged in on Monday. 

[BrazilHorn 6552]

Deaths in Travis County for week ending 2/25 were 14 (third straight week in decline)

they break down as follows:

40 to 49 (4)

50 to 59 (2)

60 to 69 (2)

70 to 79 (3)

80+ (3)

[Pato del Muerto 51913]

Dashboard shows 1 new admission reported today. 

[South Austin 51409]

Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

Dashboard shows 1 new admission reported today. 

Fuck that guy!