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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only - Stats and such


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135 cases in Travis County today with 23 admits and 140 people hospitalized.

Cases still largely over-performing in the <50 brackets.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/7 vs 4/6 -1 8 17 38 34 13 15 5 5 1 135
% of Daily Change -0.74% 5.93% 12.59% 28.15% 25.19% 9.63% 11.11% 3.70% 3.70% 0.74%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.17% 10.41% 25.90% 20.65% 14.94% 11.32% 6.61% 3.26% 2.13%  
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11 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

135 cases in Travis County today with 23 admits and 140 people hospitalized.

Cases still largely over-performing in the <50 brackets.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/7 vs 4/6 -1 8 17 38 34 13 15 5 5 1 135
% of Daily Change -0.74% 5.93% 12.59% 28.15% 25.19% 9.63% 11.11% 3.70% 3.70% 0.74%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.17% 10.41% 25.90% 20.65% 14.94% 11.32% 6.61% 3.26% 2.13%  

I wish we had age data for the daily admits.  It’s being pretty stubborn in the 15-25 range.  The ratio of lagging admits to new cases seems high to me.

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5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

I wish we had age data for the daily admits.  It’s being pretty stubborn in the 15-25 range.  The ratio of lagging admits to new cases seems high to me.

Yep - Travis County basically does an MSA Snapshot weekly of hospitalizations by age group. They just updated with 4/4 info.

1 to 9 (1)

10 to 19 (2)

20 to 29 (8)

30 to 39 (9)

40 to 49 (12)

50 to 59 (17)

60 to 69 (18)

70 to 79 (19)

80+ (15)

I did a rough compare of cases by age group for the week prior to 4/4 and then looked at the share of hospitalizations and while cases are still majority skewing younger hospitalizations are skewing much older. Tipping point is the 50 to 59 group where % hospitalized starts to eclipse share of cases.

This is an imperfect way to do the data view as I don't know exactly when the folks hospitalized were exposed to CV19 etc but directionally it is ok.

  <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
# Cases Increased 3/25 to 3/31 2 23 78 210 134 61 57 35 9 6 615
% share of increase 0.33% 3.74% 12.68% 34.15% 21.79% 9.92% 9.27% 5.69% 1.46% 0.98%  
# MSA hospitalized 4/4 0 1 2 8 9 12 17 18 19 15 101
% share hospitalized 0.00% 0.99% 1.98% 7.92% 8.91% 11.88% 16.83% 17.82% 18.81% 14.85%  
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4 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Yep - Travis County basically does an MSA Snapshot weekly of hospitalizations by age group. They just updated with 4/4 info.

1 to 9 (1)

10 to 19 (2)

20 to 29 (8)

30 to 39 (9)

40 to 49 (12)

50 to 59 (17)

60 to 69 (18)

70 to 79 (19)

80+ (15)

I did a rough compare of cases by age group for the week prior to 4/4 and then looked at the share of hospitalizations and while cases are still majority skewing younger hospitalizations are skewing much older. Tipping point is the 50 to 59 group where % hospitalized starts to eclipse share of cases.

This is an imperfect way to do the data view as I don't know exactly when the folks hospitalized were exposed to CV19 etc but directionally it is ok.

  <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
# Cases Increased 3/25 to 3/31 2 23 78 210 134 61 57 35 9 6 615
% share of increase 0.33% 3.74% 12.68% 34.15% 21.79% 9.92% 9.27% 5.69% 1.46% 0.98%  
# MSA hospitalized 4/4 0 1 2 8 9 12 17 18 19 15 101
% share hospitalized 0.00% 0.99% 1.98% 7.92% 8.91% 11.88% 16.83% 17.82% 18.81% 14.85%  

So olds 60+ make up ~8% of the cases but still account for ~50% of the hospitalizations.  I will take that as a good sign.  There should be an all out blitz to find every person over 50 and hassle the fuck out of them until they get the shot.  Unvaccinated old people are officially keeping this problem from being almost entirely solved.  

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4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

So olds 60+ make up ~8% of the cases but still account for ~50% of the hospitalizations.  I will take that as a good sign.  There should be an all out blitz to find every person over 50 and hassle the fuck out of them until they get the shot.  Unvaccinated old people are officially keeping this problem from being almost entirely solved.  

Correct. An intelligent, data-driven response. Hence why I have a much different POV around my parents getting vaccinated vs. me getting vaccinated or my kids. Also why the bar shut down is sort of silly - olds are more likely to be at Home Depot or Wal-Mart than a bar. Armybrat noticeably the exception. 

Edited by Kyle
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3 minutes ago, Kyle said:

Correct. An intelligent, data-driven response. Hence why I have a much different POV around my parents getting vaccinated vs. me getting vaccinated or my kids. Also why the bar shut down is sort of silly - olds are more likely to be at Home Depot or Wal-Mart than a bar. Armybrat noticeably the exception. 

Sure, as long as the bar patrons pinky swear to not be around the olds at work, at the grocery store, or at home with older family. 

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4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Sure, as long as the bar patrons pinky swear to not be around the olds at work, at the grocery store, or at home with older family. 

#masks

I guess being a nursing home orderly gives you a different perspective.

Edited by Kyle
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4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

So olds 60+ make up ~8% of the cases but still account for ~50% of the hospitalizations.  I will take that as a good sign.  There should be an all out blitz to find every person over 50 and hassle the fuck out of them until they get the shot.  Unvaccinated old people are officially keeping this problem from being almost entirely solved.  

Fuck you

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109 cases today for Travis County with 20 admits and 139 hospitalized (down 1 from yesterday).

Only 6 cases in the >60 crew so that bodes very well for hosp/mortality.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/7 vs 4/6 1 3 11 40 22 16 10 4 2 0 109
% of Daily Change 0.92% 2.75% 10.09% 36.70% 20.18% 14.68% 9.17% 3.67% 1.83% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.17% 10.41% 25.92% 20.65% 14.94% 11.32% 6.61% 3.25% 2.12%  
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So olds 60+ make up ~8% of the cases but still account for ~50% of the hospitalizations.  I will take that as a good sign.  There should be an all out blitz to find every person over 50 and hassle the fuck out of them until they get the shot.  Unvaccinated old people are officially keeping this problem from being almost entirely solved.  
Is it a good sign, or is it a bad sign because the olds aren't getting vaccinated?
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8 hours ago, Chewbacca said:
16 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:
So olds 60+ make up ~8% of the cases but still account for ~50% of the hospitalizations.  I will take that as a good sign.  There should be an all out blitz to find every person over 50 and hassle the fuck out of them until they get the shot.  Unvaccinated old people are officially keeping this problem from being almost entirely solved.  

Is it a good sign, or is it a bad sign because the olds aren't getting vaccinated?

It’s a good sign in the sense that the variants don’t seem to be hospitalizing young people at a high rate.  But yes, a bad sign because it shows there are still enough unvaxxed olds to put 10+ more of them in the hospital every day.

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18 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

So olds 60+ make up ~8% of the cases but still account for ~50% of the hospitalizations.  I will take that as a good sign.  There should be an all out blitz to find every person over 50 and hassle the fuck out of them until they get the shot.  Unvaccinated old people are officially keeping this problem from being almost entirely solved.  

They should hire this guy.

Curare.gif&f=1&nofb=1

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sorry for delay - went to dinner last night and then older son's baseball tournament this morning.

92 cases yesterday for Travis County and only 10 admits with 131 people hospitalized. Solid day across the board.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/9 vs 4/8 0 4 8 26 29 14 4 5 2 0 92
% of Daily Change 0.00% 4.35% 8.70% 28.26% 31.52% 15.22% 4.35% 5.43% 2.17% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.17% 10.41% 25.92% 20.66% 14.94% 11.31% 6.61% 3.25% 2.12%  
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149 cases yesterday for Travis County which is higher than I'd like for a Saturday with the 60 to 69 group outperforming their normal share of cases. 70+ age groups are WELL below their normal share which is good to see.

20 admits and 127 hospitalized (first time <130 since 11/9).

Some really great news is that for w/e 4/10 there were only 4 deaths in Travis County and NONE of them were from people 70 years old or older. This is great to see and pretty solid proof that needles in arms work.

The deaths were (2) 60 to 69, then (1) each in the 40 to 49 & 50 to 59 cohorts.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/10 vs 4/9 2 14 15 47 25 22 7 14 2 1 149
% of Daily Change 1.34% 9.40% 10.07% 31.54% 16.78% 14.77% 4.70% 9.40% 1.34% 0.67%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.18% 10.41% 25.93% 20.66% 14.94% 11.30% 6.61% 3.25% 2.12%  
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173 cases for Travis County Sunday with 18 admits and 130 people hospitalized.

Lower share than normal in the three groups over 60 years old which is nice to see. Spike in the 10 to 19 range which should bode well for lower admits down the line.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/11 vs 4/10 2 11 35 38 35 22 17 10 3 0 173
% of Daily Change 1.16% 6.36% 20.23% 21.97% 20.23% 12.72% 9.83% 5.78% 1.73% 0.00%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.18% 10.43% 25.92% 20.66% 14.93% 11.30% 6.61% 3.25% 2.11%  
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alright - 88 cases today for Travis County with 18 admits and 134 hospitalized. Cases skewing younger which is preferable to the alternative.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/12 vs 4/11 1 5 11 36 15 8 7 2 1 2 88
% of Daily Change 1.14% 5.68% 12.50% 40.91% 17.05% 9.09% 7.95% 2.27% 1.14% 2.27%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.18% 10.43% 25.94% 20.65% 14.93% 11.29% 6.61% 3.24% 2.11%  
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109 cases in Travis County with 11 admits and 131 hospitalized.

big jump  in the 1 to 9 bracket.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/13 vs 4/12 1 13 12 27 23 18 11 1 2 1 109
% of Daily Change 0.92% 11.93% 11.01% 24.77% 21.10% 16.51% 10.09% 0.92% 1.83% 0.92%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.19% 10.43% 25.94% 20.65% 14.93% 11.29% 6.60% 3.24% 2.11%  
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156 cases today with 25 admits (highest for a couple of weeks) and 135 hospitalized.

Big jump in the school age groupings. They are way over normal share of cases. Good to see 60+ below.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 4/14 vs 4/13 3 16 24 34 26 16 23 8 4 2 156
% of Daily Change 1.92% 10.26% 15.38% 21.79% 16.67% 10.26% 14.74% 5.13% 2.56% 1.28%  
% of Total Cases 0.61% 4.21% 10.44% 25.93% 20.65% 14.92% 11.30% 6.60% 3.24% 2.11%  
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4 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Man, we're just kinda bouncing around, huh?  

Yeah, we hit a trough in hospitalizations in Texas and we are starting to go up. I don’t understand what drives these waves. I don’t think it’s our behavior.

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2 hours ago, XYZ said:

Yeah, we hit a trough in hospitalizations in Texas and we are starting to go up. I don’t understand what drives these waves. I don’t think it’s our behavior.

What makes you say that?  Seems pretty clear to me that there has been a consistent increase in social activity over the last month.  Speculating, the new variants that are circulating appear to spread more easily among younger people. Those 2 factors seem to explain why cases and admits haven't continued to go down since Spring Break.  On the flip side, it also seems pretty clear to me that the older groups have reached a vaccination threshold such that they are seeing consistent decreases in case counts (although they are still being hospitalized at a disproportionate rate).

I still think shots in arms, warmer weather, and school letting out for summer will finish this thing off in the US for the most part.  But vaccine hesitancy could fuck us.

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36 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

What makes you say that?

We peaked in mid January. Now we have 1/4 of the hospitalizations that we did then. Since January we’ve been coming down hard, and it couldn’t be vaccinations because in January hardly anybody had been vaccinated. So, what was it? Our awesomeness? I don’t think so.

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8 minutes ago, XYZ said:

We peaked in mid January. Now we have 1/4 of the hospitalizations that we did then. Since January we’ve been coming down hard, and it couldn’t be vaccinations because in January hardly anybody had been vaccinated. So, what was it? Our awesomeness? I don’t think so.

www.epidemiology.com

 

 

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7 hours ago, XYZ said:

We peaked in mid January. Now we have 1/4 of the hospitalizations that we did then. Since January we’ve been coming down hard, and it couldn’t be vaccinations because in January hardly anybody had been vaccinated. So, what was it? Our awesomeness? I don’t think so.

Ah.  Yes, the reduction from the January peak is similar to the fall after the previous wave.  At some point during a surge, infections peak then wane; I agree there’s not much information out there as to what determines that peak.  But the case/admit counts over the last month or so seem to be pretty logical and fit with what we are seeing in terms of social activity, variant prevalence, and vaccinations.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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On 4/8/2021 at 5:28 PM, Kyle said:

Correct. An intelligent, data-driven response. Hence why I have a much different POV around my parents getting vaccinated vs. me getting vaccinated or my kids. 

The issue with your intelligent, data driven opinion is there are enough people like you, scared of a vaccine developed by our best and brightest, that we won't get near herd immunity. Meaning the small percentage of folks that cannot be vaccinated will be left unprotected. You and yours, many of whom probably simultaneously believe China developed covid in a lab, will pick up and help grow variants while guaranteeing every annoying aspect of this pandemic is here to stay. 

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18 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Big jump in the school age groupings. They are way over normal share of cases. Good to see 60+ below.

My kids' schools both saw a pretty big jump in attendance the past few weeks.  Large enough, that I noticed more parents waiting on their kids after school.

I'm not sure if there were a bunch of parents waiting until April to send their kids back or what.

 

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

My kids' schools both saw a pretty big jump in attendance the past few weeks.  Large enough, that I noticed more parents waiting on their kids after school.

I'm not sure if there were a bunch of parents waiting until April to send their kids back or what.

 

Just anecdotally among my friends, several of them definitely waited to let their high-school-aged kids go back, until now.  Most parents of middle school and younger kids, that I know, let them go back last Fall.  

Our 5th and 7th grader have been in-person since October.

 

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3 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Just anecdotally among my friends, several of them definitely waited to let their high-school-aged kids go back, until now.  Most parents of middle school and younger kids, that I know, let them go back last Fall.  

Our 5th and 7th grader have been in-person since October.

 

Yeah. I totally understand applying a different calculus to HS aged kids vs elementary and middle

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

When he declared that it's okay to use beans as a primary ingredient in chili, and that steaks taste better with ketchup, that was it for me.

I would crowdsource Jesus Harold Christ for that heinous blasphemy.

edited to add: To be clear, I rarely neg anybody

Edited by Armybrat
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I'm pushing sending my fourth grader back to school.  He's now one of 5 kids in his class still remote while the other 13 are in person.  I'd say easily 60-70% of the school has gone back in person.  My ex still claims she's nervous about it, even though she and I are both fully vaccinated.

I'm okay with my daughter finishing out the year remotely.  It's the opposite at her school -- relatively few kids are going back in person.  Her grades are good and she's had social interaction with a small group of girls as her pod and while paying on the varsity basketball team.

 

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1 hour ago, South Austin said:

I'm pushing sending my fourth grader back to school.  He's now one of 5 kids in his class still remote while the other 13 are in person.  I'd say easily 60-70% of the school has gone back in person.  My ex still claims she's nervous about it, even though she and I are both fully vaccinated.

Clearly a good call. Congrats.

What's her reasoning? 

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