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2021 Rain Thread

South Austin

By South Austin
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Bash Riprock
Bash Riprock

Last night outside Lubbock.

Trey3216
Trey3216

He puts the hospital in hospitality   

Homercles
Homercles

My 13yo dog kept trying to shove past me to go outside.  We had to have a conversation: Me: ”Girl don’t go out there, it’s dangerous” Bindi: ”I must investigate this disturbance” M-”The

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Yeah, this one was kind of a bust, even for Austin predictions. However, the best case scenario really only called for 1/2" avg. Still a slight chance that the second Little Wave will produce some rain tonight but I wouldn't count on it.

And yes, we got about 1/10" at the Cave. Where it always rains.

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Homercles

Homercles 10162

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My 13yo dog kept trying to shove past me to go outside.  We had to have a conversation:

Me: ”Girl don’t go out there, it’s dangerous”

Bindi: ”I must investigate this disturbance”

M-”There’s fucking golf balls of ice falling from the sky...stop pushing me you big bitch”

B-”I will defeat this enemy, move aside citizen”

M-“No!  Cant you hear all those crashes?  Imagine that hitting your thick skull!”

B-“My advanced age has rendered me deaf as a stone wall, but now I hear no evil and will engage the enemy with fearless energy and my four remaining teeth”

M-“You’re fucking dumb”

B-“I’ve seen you masturbate”

M-“Ok fine, go out there”

...17 seconds later

image.gif.d828f71aaa6a197a2b3470acfcef3a93.gif

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6620

Posted
Posted
My 13yo dog kept trying to shove past me to go outside.  We had to have a conversation:
Me: ”Girl don’t go out there, it’s dangerous”
Bindi: ”I must investigate this disturbance”
M-”There’s fucking golf balls of ice falling from the sky...stop pushing me you big bitch”
B-”I will defeat this enemy, move aside citizen”
M-“No!  Cant you hear all those crashes?  Imagine that hitting your thick skull!”
B-“My advanced age has rendered me deaf as a stone wall, but now I hear no evil and will engage the enemy with fearless energy and my four remaining teeth”
M-“You’re fucking dumb”
B-“I’ve seen you masturbate”
M-“Ok fine, go out there”
...17 seconds later
image.gif.d828f71aaa6a197a2b3470acfcef3a93.gif
And you live... where?

Sent from my SM-G950U1 using Tapatalk

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ROFL BOX

ROFL BOX 6620

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On 4/16/2021 at 10:03 PM, Homercles said:

Cedar Park.  I actually sent you a PM this morning asking for a good contact. 

Aaaaand, that would be me.

Responded.  Send a text-a-mundo via the included instructions, GoodSir.  Well within our range... I have done Dallas, San Antonio, Hoo-sten...

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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I'll post more tomorrow, but yeah, good chance of localized hail.  I.e. someone's gonna get the short straw, but as usual, rather narrow path.

However it'll come in about dinnertime and be out within the hour from any given area.  Not a long event.

 

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Hey!  Almost forgot!  That March 25th Almost Annual Weirdly On That Day 4 Times In the Past 20 Years hailstorm slid through right on top of phd jr.'s 2012 Cali Special!  He's in a house for a year w/o a garage as he finishes up UT this year.  Got it assessed today and boingo!  Only $4K to fix!  Insurance will cover it.

So I've paid my dues.  It's not going to hail in Bee Cave tomorrow night.  Metaphysical certitude.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Unpossible to know where the hail is going to be, and equally unpossible to know until the line of storms actually forms.  That's why they do those big splotches over half of Texas that looks like Mrs. French's kindergarten class drew them.  Because we - just - don't - know.

I'll know better about 1-2 p.m. tomorrow - maybe - or at least how rough it might get.

Beyond, that, you'll have to ask the Cloak Room, because those assholes know everything.

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Nicole44

Nicole44 21941

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

Unpossible to know where the hail is going to be, and equally unpossible to know until the line of storms actually forms.  That's why they do those big splotches over half of Texas that looks like Mrs. French's kindergarten class drew them.  Because we - just - don't - know.

I'll know better about 1-2 p.m. tomorrow - maybe - or at least how rough it might get.

Beyond, that, you'll have to ask the Cloak Room, because those assholes know everything.

They do. They also neg posters like they have tourettes syndrome. I mean I NEVER neg anyone or even post much in the CR. I’m not down there stirring up shit and trying to start fights. 
 I don’t attack people and threaten to ram things up their asses. But if you post one thing they don’t like or maybe your post had the right intent just expressed poorly they will nuke bomb your post like a possessed person.

We usually get the heavy winds and lightning. But after last week will be worried about the hail.

Edited by Nicole44
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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

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Alright, my breakfast post.  Not much really at this point.

The first wave will get going about 10-11 (start looking out west for the rain).  That line won't really be very organized and the rain area should actually be very scattered.  But because it is, storms can pop up and rotate, which helps to make hail (and tornadoes, though in this case I don't think the energy is there - at least on the west side of I-35).  Anything that hits will do so at and somewhat after lunch.

A 2-3 hour break, then the more intense line forms and marches through ATX about 5-7.  It'll be quick and any severe weather for us will be scattered, as is usually the case - like somewhere in Buda gets it, and maybe somewhere between Leander and Jollyville or whatever.  Most of the threat is high wind and hail.

The forecast areas seem to be rougher E-NE of us, into far E Texas and LA.  That's where the storm really brings in more warm Gulf air.  Of course depending on how much sun, how warm, etc. it gets today for us.  This is a pretty textbook severe setup, although again the worst should be E and N of us.  But plenty of stuff - warm Gulf air, a fairly strong low coming more or less at us (not going way north of us) that will cause lift/turbulence, and a pronounced dry line that's about to leave the TX/NM border and march across the state.  What might spare us is we're not in the part that's supposed to be the roughest lift/storm intensity.  But of course we're way inside the possible area for at least a scattered few of these.

Keep an eye on the line and your garage - in these cases like .25-.75% of the area could get hail.  Not much - unless you're under it.

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phdhorn

phdhorn 6224

Posted
Posted (edited)

This is the first of the two forecast waves. This one's got some heavy rain but is at this point low-key. As kind of expected. Again as expected, seems like some heavier stuff is developing southeast of Austin and moving away from us.

I'd like to think that the rain has stabilized the atmosphere and kept temperatures down, which should help. And it probably will a little bit.

But severe storm systems don't always behave the way they should. Second wave to start developing within an hour or two west of us, we'll see what happens at dinner time. I'm hoping that whatever does come it will be scattered and quick.

Edited by phdhorn
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