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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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8 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

Beats me. There's two ways to get to Progressive -- either thru an independent broker like us or directly to them. I think pricing is slightly better if you go direct because then they don't have to pay the commission. Could be something changed slightly -- deductible options, coverages might've been tweaked slightly from your previous policies and it's possible you're getting a "new business" credit because the system didn't/doesn't recognize you as a current client. You might not have selected a few add-in coverages this time or they might no longer be offered. Could also be that you've got a better insurance score than the first go-round and the system could be spitting out renewal offers without updating that info. Really hard to tell exactly.

There are small tweaks here and there, but nothing major. I went direct, online, as I did when I first bought. There were signs it saw me as a new customer and then also signs that it recognized me in their system.

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted (edited)

The man is literally saying out loud what most people think will happen before the election. He didn’t even put a number on it, just said down.

I bet he’s got some Cherry Luden cough drops in his pocket.

I bet he’s gonna find a quarter behind some young kids ear.

I bet he might have an ice cream cone sometime this summer.

Edited by StassneyHorn
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They can’t justify lower rates yet. Employment was great, inflation is normalizing but still a bit high. You lower rates to stimulate the economy for employment growth and to creat a little inflation. Sadly we had rates so low for so long when we didn’t need to that permafucked the real estate, development, and heavy industry economics by making them dependent on lower rates. It will take some time for everything to adapt to the non free money world.

if housing rates ever get back to the low 5’s, I think you’ll see another boom in developments and, hopefully, major capital expenditure investments by big business (factories, equipment, etc). 

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23 hours ago, bernorange said:

If that is accurate. so much for central bank independence.

  • In a new memoir, Volcker recounts being privately ordered by Reagan's chief of staff to not raise interest rates prior to the 1984 election while Reagan was in the room.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ronald-reagan-fed-chair-volcker-trump-2018-10

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1 hour ago, NoRagrets said:

They can’t justify lower rates yet. Employment was great, inflation is normalizing but still a bit high. You lower rates to stimulate the economy for employment growth and to creat a little inflation. Sadly we had rates so low for so long when we didn’t need to that permafucked the real estate, development, and heavy industry economics by making them dependent on lower rates. It will take some time for everything to adapt to the non free money world.

if housing rates ever get back to the low 5’s, I think you’ll see another boom in developments and, hopefully, major capital expenditure investments by big business (factories, equipment, etc). 

Yeah, I'm lost on why people (not really here, but the "market") seems fixated on when the Fed will cut. There's no reason to cut now outside of trying to make our massive debt more affordable. 

Rates aren't choking the economy, inflation still isn't completely knocked out, unemployment is ridiculously low. I absolutely don't think they are going to raise, but if you made me pick one side or the other, I'd say that things point more to a rate hike than a cut at the moment.

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14 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Pull up the last president’s remarks on the Fed and Powell so we can review. You won’t 

The previous President criticized Powell and the Fed regularly. Biden’s remarks were different in the sense that they seemed more like a wink wink prediction. 
 

I guess it all depends on what you think is more noteworthy. An orange man railing against something he can’t control, or an Average Joe sharing what he heard around the water cooler? Sure, the previous Chair of the Federal Reserve is around the proverbial water cooler but whatever.   

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3 hours ago, Cum Rocket said:

The previous President criticized Powell and the Fed regularly. Biden’s remarks were different in the sense that they seemed more like a wink wink prediction. 
 

I guess it all depends on what you think is more noteworthy. An orange man railing against something he can’t control, or an Average Joe sharing what he heard around the water cooler? Sure, the previous Chair of the Federal Reserve is around the proverbial water cooler but whatever.   

Did Biden admit pressuring Powell to lower rates and because of said pressure, he lowered the rates.

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/4208224-trump-interest-rates-too-high-people-cant-buy-homes/

Quote

The remarks harken back to the contentious relationship the two officials had when Trump served from 2017-2021.

Using the platform formerly known as Twitter, Trump often berated Fed officials, once calling them “boneheads,” and compared Powell to “a golfer who can’t putt.” Those remarks came while the Fed was raising interest rates in 2018 and 2019.

“We do know that I put a lot of pressure on him,” Trump told Welker. “It was outside pressure, because nobody knows whether or not you can really do that, but I did, because I thought his interest rates were too high. And he ultimately dropped his interest rates.”

 You guys are fucking clowns 

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3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

You think the wink wink prediction is because of behind the scenes pressure to interfere in an election year, while others would consider all economic indicators are factored in and point to this occurring 

Which economic factors point to a rate cut?

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2 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Did Biden admit pressuring Powell to lower rates and because of said pressure, he lowered the rates.

https://thehill.com/homenews/sunday-talk-shows/4208224-trump-interest-rates-too-high-people-cant-buy-homes/

 You guys are fucking clowns 

Lulz. 
 

Which is more likely? Powell cutting rates because of something Trump said, or Trump falsely taking credit for something? 

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1 hour ago, Cum Rocket said:

Which economic factors point to a rate cut?

The soft landing that our back wheels just touched down on that is apparent to everyone but you, unless you wanted me to do your homework with a lengthy post about inflation numbers continuing to trend downwards. PCE hitting 2.4% last month as part of the continued falling trend that the Fed favors over other inflation measures is the most obvious. We had percentages in the 90s of a rate cut for this March but January repricing spooked people and set the timeline back. 

6 weeks ago we were looking at a 90% chance of a cut this month, now we’re around 33%. The question is when not if.

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1 hour ago, Cum Rocket said:

Lulz. 
 

Which is more likely? Powell cutting rates because of something Trump said, or Trump falsely taking credit for something? 

About as likely as Biden having anything to do with Powell or rate cuts you clown. Is this your 32nd username? 

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3 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

The soft landing that our back wheels just touched down on that is apparent to everyone but you, unless you wanted me to do your homework with a lengthy post about inflation numbers continuing to trend downwards. PCE hitting 2.4% last month as part of the continued falling trend that the Fed favors over other inflation measures is the most obvious. We had percentages in the 90s of a rate cut for this March but January repricing spooked people and set the timeline back. 

6 weeks ago we were looking at a 90% chance of a cut this month, now we’re around 33%. The question is when not if.

What’s the Fed’s inflation goal?

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Consumers increasingly doubt the Federal Reserve can achieve its inflation goals anytime soon, according to a survey Monday from the New York Federal Reserve.

While the outlook over the next year was unchanged at 3%, that wasn't the case for the longer term. At the three-year range, expectations rose 0.3 percentage point to 2.7%, while the five-year outlook jumped even more, up 0.4 percentage point to 2.9%.

All three are well ahead of the Fed's 2% goal for 12-month inflation, indicating the central bank may need to keep policy tighter for longer. Economists and policymakers consider expectations as a key factor in viewing the path of inflation, so the Survey of Consumer Expectations for February could be bad news.
...

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/03/11/long-term-inflation-expectations-rise-spelling-possible-trouble-for-the-fed-survey-shows.html

 

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20 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

Don’t ask questions we already know the answer to, especially when you know the number is a lagging response.

Ok well hard to see the justification with great employment numbers and CPI well above goal. 
 

 

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52 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Yeah, I'm not sure I see the logic in delaying (small) rate cuts until the inflation target is hit.  Seems like a classic "too late" move, prone to overshoot.  (Well, undershoot in an absolute sense.)

What’s the impetus for rate cuts then? Is there some softening in the economy that is under appreciated by most?

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5 minutes ago, Cum Rocket said:

What’s the impetus for rate cuts then? Is there some softening in the economy that is under appreciated by most?

Absent human psychology, I would expect a rate cut delayed until we hit the target inflation metric to allow that inflation number to drop further, as it should take time for markets to respond.  Perhaps I'm wrong.  I deal with oscillatory systems daily, I think in engineering terms that might not apply.

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On 3/9/2024 at 3:34 PM, StassneyHorn said:

The man is literally saying out loud what most people think will happen before the election. He didn’t even put a number on it, just said down.

I bet he’s got some Cherry Luden cough drops in his pocket.

I bet he’s gonna find a quarter behind some young kids ear.

I bet he might have an ice cream cone sometime this summer.

deep state.

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Yeah, I'm not sure I see the logic in delaying (small) rate cuts until the inflation target is hit.  Seems like a classic "too late" move, prone to overshoot.  (Well, undershoot in an absolute sense.)

Where is the logic in cutting rates (small) when inflation has been stuck between 3-4% for the last 8 months, GDP fine, labor market fine and your target is 2%?

I’m afraid it’s higher for longer. You didn’t hear it here first.
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4 hours ago, TxTower said:


Where is the logic in cutting rates (small) when inflation has been stuck between 3-4% for the last 8 months, GDP fine, labor market fine and your target is 2%?

I’m afraid it’s higher for longer. You didn’t hear it here first.

Historically speaking 7% is pretty low. My folks first mortgage back in the 80s was at 9.5%, but their principle amount was less than most pickup trucks nowadays. 

Interest rates and principle amounts this high don't really jibe with a national median income of $41k, but the free market will adjust or something. Just like after the 2008 black swan event lol

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All I know is god damn chicken wings went up to like $19/10 pieces right after covid and somehow are never coming back down again, despite everything saying there are no supply chain issues.  It's almost as if people keep paying inflated prices instead of using their consumer habits to force corporations to capitulate.  But that couldn't be.

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8 hours ago, Captainant said:

Historically speaking 7% is pretty low. My folks first mortgage back in the 80s was at 9.5%, but their principle amount was less than most pickup trucks nowadays. 

Interest rates and principle amounts this high don't really jibe with a national median income of $41k, but the free market will adjust or something. Just like after the 2008 black swan event lol

A lot of people are sitting on the sideline at 7% 

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36 minutes ago, UTPhil2006 said:

A lot of people are sitting on the sideline at 7% 

I can't imagine that more people are coming in at a higher interest rate than a lower one lol, but also the inflated home values from the 2020->2023 run up are what's really making the monthly payments out to reach for hourly wage earners. 

It's wild that pretty much the entire market shot up 50% or more, for really no reason aside from speculation. Every attractive house my wife and I have looked at (we would love a yard and not 3 stories) is $700k-$900k in 2024 but had a market value in the $400-500s pre-COIVD. 

Heck, my parents sold their old house in NE San Antonio for $175k in 2017. Last year it was on the market and sold for $300k, and judging from the listing photos of the flooring I installed, they didn't put money into the property to improve things THAT much. 

That ain't inflation, that's gouging. 

Edited by Captainant
Typo'd a number
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Quote

...
What the PPI is telling us. The measure that tracks consumer-facing inflation, the Consumer Price Index, has for months seen hot and rising services inflation, but durable-goods inflation has been negative (deflation) since the peak of the spike in 2022, and these negative readings in durable goods, plus the plunging energy prices of yore provided a big counterweight to services inflation and a downward push for the overall CPI readings in 2023. But this counterweight and downward push is now in the early stages of fizzling – that’s what the PPI is telling us.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/03/14/what-the-ppi-is-telling-us-disinflation-in-core-goods-a-hefty-counterweight-to-hot-services-inflation-may-be-over/

 

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On 3/15/2024 at 8:44 AM, Captainant said:

I can't imagine that more people are coming in at a higher interest rate than a lower one lol, but also the inflated home values from the 2020->2023 run up are what's really making the monthly payments out to reach for hourly wage earners. 

It's wild that pretty much the entire market shot up 50% or more, for really no reason aside from speculation. Every attractive house my wife and I have looked at (we would love a yard and not 3 stories) is $700k-$900k in 2024 but had a market value in the $400-500s pre-COIVD. 

Heck, my parents sold their old house in NE San Antonio for $175k in 2017. Last year it was on the market and sold for $300k, and judging from the listing photos of the flooring I installed, they didn't put money into the property to improve things THAT much. 

That ain't inflation, that's gouging. 

The market didn’t shoot up 50% due to speculation or gouging. There are real economic reasons. Housing has been under built for over a decade, some estimates today say around 5.5 million homes. Due to Covid, money became cheaper than ever before. Everyone, including their mother either bought a house or refinanced. Now, we still are under built and no one wants to move due to their low Mortage rate and 40% don’t even have a mortgage, hurting inventory even more. It’s not speculation or gouging, it’s supply and demand. Want home prices to come down? Build more houses. That’s it. 

Improvements are not the only reason a home’s value increases. Scarcity also increases the value of an asset. 

Some markets were overinflated (like Austin) but they have come down 10% or more from peak. Other markets that were not overinflated have increased continuously 

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In case anyone is interested, I plotted Austin's single-family residential pricing from 2011 forward.  Data came from the Texas A&M Real Estate site. 

We are currently down ~ 23% from the summer 2022 peak, and are approximately even with spring 2021 prices.

image.thumb.png.110fc1cf6f16e178185b958cae50154e.png

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10 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

In case anyone is interested, I plotted Austin's single-family residential pricing from 2011 forward.  Data came from the Texas A&M Real Estate site. 

We are currently down ~ 23% from the summer 2022 peak, and are approximately even with spring 2021 prices.

image.thumb.png.110fc1cf6f16e178185b958cae50154e.png

Is this a soft landing? 

IMG_1075.jpeg

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On 3/10/2024 at 9:09 AM, Redneck Mutha said:
  • In a new memoir, Volcker recounts being privately ordered by Reagan's chief of staff to not raise interest rates prior to the 1984 election while Reagan was in the room.

https://www.businessinsider.com/ronald-reagan-fed-chair-volcker-trump-2018-10

In fairness, the 1984 election was a real squeaker

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On 3/9/2024 at 4:34 PM, StassneyHorn said:

The man is literally saying out loud what most people think will happen before the election. He didn’t even put a number on it, just said down.

I bet he’s got some Cherry Luden cough drops in his pocket.

I bet he’s gonna find a quarter behind some young kids ear.

I bet he might have an ice cream cone sometime this summer.

Hey, quit putting CR posts in the inflation thread (and you didn't even predict an ice cream flavor)

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On 3/15/2024 at 7:44 AM, Captainant said:

I can't imagine that more people are coming in at a higher interest rate than a lower one lol, but also the inflated home values from the 2020->2023 run up are what's really making the monthly payments out to reach for hourly wage earners. 

It's wild that pretty much the entire market shot up 50% or more, for really no reason aside from speculation. Every attractive house my wife and I have looked at (we would love a yard and not 3 stories) is $700k-$900k in 2024 but had a market value in the $400-500s pre-COIVD. 

Heck, my parents sold their old house in NE San Antonio for $175k in 2017. Last year it was on the market and sold for $300k, and judging from the listing photos of the flooring I installed, they didn't put money into the property to improve things THAT much. 

That ain't inflation, that's gouging. 

So now every home owner in America getting the price they ask when they sell their home is gouging?   Jesus Tapdancing Christ bro.   

 

When will the government step in and stop the collusion!!!!!!??????  

 

lol 

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On 3/17/2024 at 1:43 PM, jimmyjazz said:

In case anyone is interested, I plotted Austin's single-family residential pricing from 2011 forward.  Data came from the Texas A&M Real Estate site. 

We are currently down ~ 23% from the summer 2022 peak, and are approximately even with spring 2021 prices.

image.thumb.png.110fc1cf6f16e178185b958cae50154e.png

I would caution anyone from misreading “price” as “value”.  Values, for the most part, don’t appear to have fallen by much in the aggregate (just my opinion, but I think homes in the $1m-$1.5m or so aren’t moving and that’s probably the weakest part of the demand curve).  

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57 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I would caution anyone from misreading “price” as “value”.  Values, for the most part, don’t appear to have fallen by much in the aggregate (just my opinion, but I think homes in the $1m-$1.5m or so aren’t moving and that’s probably the weakest part of the demand curve).  

Anecdotally I can confirm this.  I have 3 homes in Austin.  The 2 in the $350k-$500k range have recent comps that show their prices are continuing to go up or are at least stable.  My other property is in the $600k-$900k range and the asking prices for similar homes has come down a bit, but not 20% down from peak.  My guess is that 20-25% decrease is coming from the homes in the $900k-$2M range.

Edited by Snake Diggity
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