2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread

[phdhorn 6224]

Fred doesn't look to have a lot of oomph wherever it goes.  Lots of shear and other crap on the way.  Right now not forecast to get above TS strength, but of course that could change and probably will.  Maybe a 1 going into NE Florida late this week.

[Zwylde 810]

Rented a beach house on St. George Island Florida Sunday through Friday.  Hope Fred either picks up his pace and gets on through or hooks East and goes through South Fl.  As luck would have it, the projected path right now is a fucking bullseye. 

[Zwylde 810]

[Parliament 13979]

Looks like Cuba's gonna take the length AND the girth. 

[texasdago 7376]

Uh oh, better get out the Sharpie.

[Dewey 3266]

4 hours ago, Zwylde said:

Rented a beach house on St. George Island Florida Sunday through Friday.  Hope Fred either picks up his pace and gets on through or hooks East and goes through South Fl.  As luck would have it, the projected path right now is a fucking bullseye. 

That's part of the charm these coastal towns have. Get there early, do as the locals do. 

[BearSchlong 7963]

6 hours ago, Zwylde said:

Rented a beach house on St. George Island Florida Sunday through Friday.  Hope Fred either picks up his pace and gets on through or hooks East and goes through South Fl.  As luck would have it, the projected path right now is a fucking bullseye. 

My condolences.

But anything that misses Texas is fine by me.

[Brew 2917]

We need more rain in SWFL like we need another kick in the nuts but looks like more is on the way. The water is higher around our house at the moment than I can remember it being the last several years.

[jdhorn92 1524]

On 8/10/2021 at 8:40 AM, Zwylde said:

Rented a beach house on St. George Island Florida Sunday through Friday.  Hope Fred either picks up his pace and gets on through or hooks East and goes through South Fl.  As luck would have it, the projected path right now is a fucking bullseye. 

IMO...Good news is its running at 16mph, that is really cooking.  I look at the forward moving speed a lot with these systems.  By Monday afternoon, the storm will all be but gone from the island at that speed and by Tuesday (based on the current path) you should have beach weather.  Once it hits land, the back side will be breaking up and you should be fine, and of course at 16mph, it will move through rather quickly.  Any movement east and you are golden.

I live along gulf coast, so i watch them pretty close.  We will know a lot more on this one after it passes Cuba/Dominica area

 

[jdhorn92 1524]

17 hours ago, Brew said:

We need more rain in SWFL like we need another kick in the nuts but looks like more is on the way. The water is higher around our house at the moment than I can remember it being the last several years.

Yeah, I was in Port Charlotte last week on business and got soaked pretty good.  The locals at the hotel in Punta Gorda were telling me you have been drenched  a lot lately.

[Hate 20037]

Here are some models for 95L which is currently in the Atlantic .  It is a long way off (Aug 24 landfall), but it absolutely should be watched. 

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several 
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by 
early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical 
Atlantic near 20 mph.  This system could reach portions of the 
Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[Rip76 4871]

8 minutes ago, Hate said:

Here are some models for 95L which is currently in the Atlantic .  It is a long way off (Aug 24 landfall), but it absolutely should be watched. 

 

Well that's pretty strong.

[Neonmoon 38126]

That little guy? I wouldn’t worry about that little guy 

[Zonahorn 7848]

Fred will need to be watched in gulf

[pearlandhorn 3256]

20 hours ago, Hate said:

Here are some models for 95L which is currently in the Atlantic .  It is a long way off (Aug 24 landfall), but it absolutely should be watched. 

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several 
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by 
early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical 
Atlantic near 20 mph.  This system could reach portions of the 
Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

GFS models don't do fuckall with that disturbance.  Definitely one to watch though.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021081206&fh=78

[pearlandhorn 3256]

18 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

GFS models don't do fuckall with that disturbance.  Definitely one to watch though.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021081206&fh=78

We’ll then. Within the timing of this post and midnight, the GFS got it’s act together and is now projecting this storm in the Atlantic to be a 940 mb storm and destroy North Carolina and Virginia.

[Dewey 3266]

Florida is in for a good washing, Fred, then whatever 95 turns into

[Zwylde 810]

Pretty big change overnight.  Looking like it has slowed down quite a bit and going Westward.  
 

[Mother mopar 3262]

Pretty big change overnight.  Looking like it has slowed down quite a bit and going Westward.  
 

I could use some rain here in FWB. I'm more worried about what's behind Fred.

[Zwylde 810]

Looks like they missed the Grace forecast pretty bad.  She’s coming for us.

 

[Lat22 3941]

I love Jen Carfagno and I have for a long, long time. There. I said it. 

[Zwylde 810]

Jim Cantore live look special.  St. George Island.  Brisk 25 mph right now.  No rain at least but this is gonna put a damper on the surf shark fishing for the next 48hrs.  I’m sure it will be perfect as soon as we’re loading up to leave on Friday.

 

[jdhorn92 1524]

18 hours ago, Zwylde said:

Jim Cantore live look special.  St. George Island.  Brisk 25 mph right now.  No rain at least but this is gonna put a damper on the surf shark fishing for the next 48hrs.  I’m sure it will be perfect as soon as we’re loading up to leave on Friday.

 

St George in for a long day/night, though Panama City will get the worst of it.

[tokamak 6321]

Still a long way out, but the latest cone has Grace turning south, hitting Cancun. 

[Zwylde 810]

We’ve had about 18 hours of high winds and rain but it has finally stopped, wind had calmed down to less than 20 and some sun peeking out.  Wasn’t great but not too bad considering.  Rest of the week looks fine.

[Dewey 3266]

A fast moving TS isn't bad at all, it's when they're slow movers, that's when things tend to flood. 

[Hate 20037]

Grace is still going to Mexico at the moment.  There is still time for changes though,

 

 

Some models are calling for a right turn after landfall, which would bring a lot of rain to Central Texas...possibly.

Edited August 17, 2021 by Hate

[Dewey 3266]

First spaghetti for Grace had Florida's east coast, 3 or 4 days later, Mexico.  Only sure thing is Grace will be a hurricane. 

[UTexasFight 9288]

5 hours ago, Hate said:

Grace is still going to Mexico at the moment.  There is still time for changes though,

 

 

Some models are calling for a right turn after landfall, which would bring a lot of rain to Central Texas...possibly.

How about that one line making a run right up I-37  and stopping exactly on top of Austin

that’s fun.

low fuel light came on today. I hope there is still gas at the stations tomorrow morning 

[Enchubben 5492]

5 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

How about that one line making a run right up I-37  and stopping exactly on top of Austin

that’s fun.

low fuel light came on today. I hope there is still gas at the stations tomorrow morning 

We’ll have gas, it will just be from Russian oil and cost $6/gallon.

[Zwylde 810]

All good now!

 

[phdhorn 6224]

Pretty certain that Grace is going to hit land well south of the U.S. It ought to be interesting to watch it intensify as it crosses the Bay of Campeche. Probably a 2 when it hits land in Mexico.

[Hate 20037]

Some weather models are sniffing out a possible tropical storm about a week from now.

[Dewey 3266]

 

[crimsonlonghorn 2299]

Latest GFS has moved north towards the Euro this morning and takes it up the Rio Grande. 

A month ago I would have loved this possibility for south and west Texas to get some heavy rain, now it will ruin the shit out of the dove hunting right before the season starts.

[Rip76 4871]

Going to be a busy couple of weeks watching the GOM.

[Rip76 4871]

Icon model with a 90mph storm at Port Aransas on Monday.  All just model guessing at this point, since there's not even a formed center, but something to watch.

Best to be in the bullseye now.

 

[Rip76 4871]

GFS into Corpus.

A bit weaker and a day later.

 

[Welch 635]

Courtesy of Mike’s Weather Page.

Most seem to be trending more north/east.

Euro had been pointed towards the middle Texas coast, now it’s Louisiana.

GFS had been northern Mexico, now lower Texas coast.

[NorthLoop 13906]

So it's gonna hit Tampa

[Brisketexan 103139]

6 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

So it's gonna hit Tampa

Get out your sharpie.

[Hate 20037]

Probably.  The Euro used to be the most dependable model, but they made some updates to it a couple of years ago and it has not performed as well since.  It literally used to be called "King Euro".  It still does fairly well once a COC (Center of Circulation) has formed, but it doesn't handle open waves quite as well as it once did.  I watch the models out of interest, but once a storm has formed I follow the NHC.  They are damn good at what they do.

[Welch 635]

Yeah, my hat’s off to NHC for the way they handled Laura last year.  
 

There were a lot of people pushing that track towards Beaumont or even farther west, but NHC stuck with Lake Charles and ended up splitting the uprights Justin Tucker-style.

Edited August 24, 2021 by Welch

[Rip76 4871]

After the Harvey track, lack of steering, etc, I’ll never not trust the NHC again.

[Stella Link 534]

1 hour ago, Welch said:

Courtesy of Mike’s Weather Page.

Most seem to be trending more north/east.

Euro had been pointed towards the middle Texas coast, now it’s Louisiana.

GFS had been northern Mexico, now lower Texas coast.

Just heard (TWC) if it hits south Texas, it will sit and not go anywhere.  

 

 

 

[miguelito 11060]

That's what I do when I go to South Texas.

[Brisketexan 103139]

3 minutes ago, miguelito said:

That's what I do when I go to South Texas.

Well, it WILL be pretty close to dove season (but not south zone yet).

[Dewey 3266]

3 hours ago, Hate said:

Probably.  The Euro used to be the most dependable model, but they made some updates to it a couple of years ago and it has not performed as well since.  It literally used to be called "King Euro".  It still does fairly well once a COC (Center of Circulation) has formed, but it doesn't handle open waves quite as well as it once did.  I watch the models out of interest, but once a storm has formed I follow the NHC.  They are damn good at what they do.

Last season was very noticeable,  but I was so used to trusting the euro, when they had two Cat 5s heading for Galveston,  I bailed on the first one, the second, I hung around, even went to work in 50mph sustained winds.

Early in the season, but if I'm watching,  I'm watching the GFS. Hope everyone on the coast gets some rain and wind, but may it never be a hurricane.  

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2617]

Filled up and bought extra water. If it looks close I’m heading out early.  I live on the coast with an 18 month year old. Not risking anything. 
 

the issue is that I have no idea where to head. At this point most of texas and Louisiana can get hit. 
 

hell, some models show a hill country Harvey. That would be bad. 

Edited August 25, 2021 by Xian

[texasdago 7376]

3 hours ago, Rip76 said:

After the Harvey track, lack of steering, etc, I’ll never not trust the NHC again.

I mean, they called it on Thursday