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2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread


Rip76

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9 hours ago, Rip76 said:

I’ll dig up some earlier model runs, than that Thursday.

I mean I hear you but model runs are model runs and until it gets closer, the storm kind of does what it wants.  That doc shows Thursday with a crazy wobble and it was spot on.  The big rains didn't hit our house until Saturday night.

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1 hour ago, CHEF DIESEL said:

These models are worthless until a center of circulation develops. There is also an Easterly Wave developing along the LA coast which will move west this weekend. Not even looking at this until then.

Jokes on you.

I’ve already gassed up 3 55 gal (open) trash cans. 

Edited by UTexasFight
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Deja vu from almost exactly one year ago. Straight at Galveston and then a turn north at the last minute to Lake Charles. Gotta feel bad for them if it verifies, I was driving through there about a month ago and there are still a lot of blue tarps on the roofs.

All of the models are clustering around Louisiana this morning.

(recognize that it's still very early)

 

474121866_gfs-deterministic-conus-mslp-1629892800-1630152000-1630508400-10.2021-08-2511_26_04.gif.5db1d62744226ab3c4a0aa89e447a85a.gif

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3 minutes ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Deja vu from almost exactly one year ago. Straight at Galveston and then a turn north at the last minute to Lake Charles. Gotta feel bad for them if it verifies, I was driving through there about a month ago and there are still a lot of blue tarps on the roofs.

All of the models are clustering around Louisiana this morning.

(recognize that it's still very early)

 

474121866_gfs-deterministic-conus-mslp-1629892800-1630152000-1630508400-10.2021-08-2511_26_04.gif.5db1d62744226ab3c4a0aa89e447a85a.gif

Also a reminder that NHC dragged their nuts across the face of every spaghetti model on this one. I was just skimming thru the 2020 thread last night - we were all panicking in Houston but the whole time the NHC was like "bitch, be cool".

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1 hour ago, crimsonlonghorn said:

Deja vu from almost exactly one year ago. Straight at Galveston and then a turn north at the last minute to Lake Charles. Gotta feel bad for them if it verifies, I was driving through there about a month ago and there are still a lot of blue tarps on the roofs.

All of the models are clustering around Louisiana this morning.

(recognize that it's still very early)

 

Here's the 12z Euro. Pretty much identical. 

691185606_ecmwf-deterministic-conus-mslp-1629892800-1630141200-1630400400-10.2021-08-2514_59_57.gif.e296458bced86345b53964ac3d0da2dd.gif

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What's the hospital situation like in Southern Louisiana right now?  Are they packed like ours with Covid folks who would need to be evacuated?  Are there ICU beds for those injured in the storms?  I can barely get good data for Austin, and then Texas.  Nevermind Louisiana. Godspeed to y'all in that path. 

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11 minutes ago, Lobo said:

What's the hospital situation like in Southern Louisiana right now?  Are they packed like ours with Covid folks who would need to be evacuated?  Are there ICU beds for those injured in the storms?  I can barely get good data for Austin, and then Texas.  Nevermind Louisiana. Godspeed to y'all in that path. 

Memorial and St. Pat's are the two largest hospitals in LC. Memorial ICU is 65% full and St. Pat's is 100%.

Calcasieu Parish's vax rate is 31% (just 27% a month ago). 

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20 minutes ago, Lobo said:

I'm gonna assume moving hundreds of ICU patients (many of whom are intubated) for a hurricane evacuation is probably not super easy?  

Not being a dick here, but what is the appropriate place to discuss this? DT? Cloak Room? It's own thread?

If this hits the right way, it could be one of the most painful humanitarian disasters we've seen in this country in a long, long time. Maybe ever? You'd be talking about not only the evacuation to literally NOWHERE in the south with capacity, only a few days out, or the possibility of leaving folks there, unconscious or sick and hoping power remains, and zero hope of any new admittance. And asking medical personnel to stay at their own risk in even worse conditions. 

This probably deserves it's own thread. 

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Cloak Room?  What the fuck?  I asked an innocent question about what the hospital scene was like in the path of a hurricane.  It's a legit question because evacuation logistics are already a fucking nightmare when hundreds of people on breathing vents are involved.  It's a thread about hurricanes.  So I asked a question about how we get vulnerable people out of its path.  I honestly don't know the Louisiana hospital situation so I asked and got some great data straight away.  I wanna figure out a way to help between now and then.  Obviously I ain't going there and obviously donations aren't really gonna help right now. 

And our own hospital systems here in Texas are completely overrun so if we all put our heads and hearts and wallets together, maybe we can figure something out.  Our trucking company always offers to help move supplies (we're not set up for human transport).  We've been doing it since September 11th.  If there are hospital groups not in Covid shitshow spots, we could help move their spare equipment to points north of the hurricane path and get people resettled there for a week or so?  I wouldn't know where to begin but I can muster a rather large fleet on a day's notice if hospital groups in places like Little Rock, Memphis, or Tulsa can spare equipment.  But they're probably overrun themselves with covid patients.

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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Cloak Room?  What the fuck?  I asked an innocent question about what the hospital scene was like in the path of a hurricane.  It's a legit question because evacuation logistics are already a fucking nightmare when hundreds of people on breathing vents are involved.  It's a thread about hurricanes.  So I asked a question about how we get vulnerable people out of its path.  I honestly don't know the Louisiana hospital situation so I asked and got some great data straight away.  I wanna figure out a way to help between now and then.  Obviously I ain't going there and obviously donations aren't really gonna help right now. 

And our own hospital systems here in Texas are completely overrun so if we all put our heads and hearts and wallets together, maybe we can figure something out.  Our trucking company always offers to help move supplies (we're not set up for human transport).  We've been doing it since September 11th.  If there are hospital groups not in Covid shitshow spots, we could help move their spare equipment to points north of the hurricane path and get people resettled there for a week or so?  I wouldn't know where to begin but I can muster a rather large fleet on a day's notice if hospital groups in places like Little Rock, Memphis, or Tulsa can spare equipment.  But they're probably overrun themselves with covid patients.

Did you miss the part about me saying "Not trying to be a dick." It was an honest fucking question, and I thought your point was legit as I illustrated with the rest of my fucking post. But yeah, I know you know better than to think many posts and conversations can't turn fucking political, and this is the hurricane path thread, so I thought folks might not want to clutter it the fuck up with anything other than paths and such. Were you always a sensitive boy, Tommy?

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I gotcha man.  Just everybody is so damn touchy with any thread getting slightly political.  We can't talk about Afghanistan, Delta Variant, school, the football stadium, anything without somebody declaring "AHHH Cloak Room!"  Mea culpa.  
You're right about the inevitable veering of the thread, but for now I want to see how we can help. Lots of Cajuns on this board.  Maybe they know something concrete we can do.  But then yes, right after that we can cloak room this shit up and bitch again!  
I've never liked August.  Now I know why.

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44 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not being a dick here, but what is the appropriate place to discuss this? DT? Cloak Room? It's own thread?

If this hits the right way, it could be one of the most painful humanitarian disasters we've seen in this country in a long, long time. Maybe ever? You'd be talking about not only the evacuation to literally NOWHERE in the south with capacity, only a few days out, or the possibility of leaving folks there, unconscious or sick and hoping power remains, and zero hope of any new admittance. And asking medical personnel to stay at their own risk in even worse conditions. 

This probably deserves it's own thread. 

I think as this storm forms that will become the major story. It should be being discussed. 

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KPRC just said a new model came out saying a direct hit with 120mph winds to New Orleans sometime Monday?

That’s typical local news sensationalism. Could that happen, sure, but five days out there’s not a lot of confidence in any given track or strength forecast.

Keep an eye on it and prepare accordingly, definitely, but remember that “the field” is definitely the safe bet vs. any single given scenario at this point.
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