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2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread


Rip76

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Figured I'd get it started.

11 days until the 2021 Hurricane Season.

Right on time, models are hinting at some type of tropical disturbance forming out of that blob of convection in the GOM in the next day and moving into Southeast Texas.  That would not be good as far a training rains are concerned.

Screenshot_2021-05-20 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot_2021-05-20 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

 

Here is the list of names for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

  • Ana
  • Bill
  • Claudette
  • Danny
  • Elsa
  • Fred
  • Grace
  • Henri
  • Ida
  • Julian
  • Kate
  • Larry
  • Mindy
  • Nicholas
  • Odette
  • Peter
  • Rose
  • Sam
  • Teresa
  • Victor
  • Wanda
Edited by Rip76
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4 hours ago, Hate said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=gom&product=vis-swir

 

You can already see some rotation on satellite.  The Golden Triangle is already in trouble.  It's about to get really bad for them.  Any trips on I-10 into or out of LA/TX need to happen within the next 24 hours or so.

Oh, okay 👍

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file.php?id=17511&t=1

two_atl_2d0.png

A disorganized area of cloudiness and thunderstorms over the 
western Gulf of Mexico is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure. Conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for
some development over the next day or so before the disturbance 
moves inland over the northwestern Gulf coast late Friday or Friday 
night. Regardless of development, the system could produce heavy 
rainfall over portions of southeastern Texas and southwestern 
Louisiana on Friday and through the weekend.  Additional information 
on the rainfall and flooding potential can be found in products 
issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
1 hour ago, Dewey said:

 

Oh, okay 👍

 
 

 

I'm not really sure what this means. They shut down I10 earlier this week and it's possible there could be enough rain to do it again beginning tomorrow night.

Edited by Hate
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Now up to a 40% chance of development.

file.php?id=17515&t=1&sid=f57f1239096d4f

 

Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development,
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

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3 hours ago, Hate said:

Now up to a 40% chance of development.

file.php?id=17515&t=1&sid=f57f1239096d4f

 

Recent satellite imagery suggests that a low-level circulation is
forming associated with the mid- to upper-level disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico. However, shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Environmental conditions are expected to be
marginally conducive for development, and a short-lived tropical
depression or storm could form before the disturbance moves inland
over the northwestern Gulf coast tonight. Regardless of development,
the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana during the next few
days. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding potential
can be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

This thing isn't even causing Houston NWS to bat an eye.  They're saying a lot of dry air will be pulled in and even if it gets to TS strength, it'll weaken so quickly as to be really a non-factor(?).  Just heavy rain  - widespread, not everywhere - in extreme coastal Texas.

I'll check back but this is so far a nuthin'burger.  For now.

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18 minutes ago, phdhorn said:

This thing isn't even causing Houston NWS to bat an eye.  They're saying a lot of dry air will be pulled in and even if it gets to TS strength, it'll weaken so quickly as to be really a non-factor(?).  Just heavy rain  - widespread, not everywhere - in extreme coastal Texas.

I'll check back but this is so far a nuthin'burger.  For now.

Yeah, this isn't likely to become a big storm or anything, but it could dump a lot of rain on some places that have already had a lot of rain over the last week.

file.php?id=17517&t=1

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On 5/20/2021 at 10:44 AM, Rip76 said:

Figured I'd get it started.

11 days until the 2021 Hurricane Season.

Right on time, models are hinting at some type of tropical disturbance forming out of that blob of convection in the GOM in the next day and moving into Southeast Texas.  That would not be good as far a training rains are concerned.

Screenshot_2021-05-20 Models GFS — Pivotal Weather.png

Screenshot_2021-05-20 Models RDPS — Pivotal Weather.png

 

Here is the list of names for the 2021 Atlantic hurricane season

  • Ana
  • Bill
  • Claudette
  • Danny
  • Elsa
  • Fred
  • Grace
  • Henri
  • Ida
  • Julian
  • Kate
  • Larry
  • Mindy
  • Nicholas
  • Odette
  • Peter
  • Rose
  • Sam
  • Teresa
  • Victor
  • Wanda

They need to have one year where they bust out some of the retired names.

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Up to 60% now.

Surface observations and recent satellite wind data indicate that a
well-defined low pressure system over the western Gulf of Mexico has
winds of 30-35 mph near and east of the center. The associated
shower and thunderstorm activity remains limited, but any increase
in this activity may result in the formation of a short-lived
tropical depression or storm before the system moves inland over the
northwestern Gulf coast tonight, and potential tropical cyclone
advisories may be needed as early as this afternoon. Regardless of
development, the system could produce heavy rainfall over portions
of southeastern Texas and southwestern Louisiana through Saturday.
Given the complete saturation of soils with ongoing river flooding
along the Texas and Louisiana coastal areas, heavy rain could lead
to flash, urban, and additional riverine flooding across this
region. Additional information on the rainfall and flooding
potential can be found in products issued by your local National
Weather Service Forecast Office.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

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Everything I've read is basically, "it was going to rain anyway whether this thing turns into anything or not"
It will be inconsequential (unless you live near Beaumont and then you will get 2 feet of rain)

If you live in Beaumont, you deserve it. SE Texas sucks. Including Houston. I wish I could leave.
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35 minutes ago, clapclapclap said:

Meh, looks like it will be more to the west and no big deal.  NWS forecasts now of less than an inch for everywhere I looked in SE Texas.

Yeah, it sucked in a lot of dry air today which pretty much killed any chance of it developing.  I'm ok with that. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

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