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2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread


Rip76

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There isn't a whole lot of confidence this is going to develop.  Some models showed it a day or two ago, but aren't showing anything now.  It's too early to tell and we probably won't know for sure for another 3 or 4 days...at least.  From the NHC:

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad trough of low pressure is expected to develop over the 
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days.  Some 
gradual development will be possible thereafter while the system 
moves slowly northwestward toward Central America.  Regardless of 
development, this system could produce heavy rainfall across 
northern Colombia and portions of Central America from Honduras 
southward later this week and into the weekend.  See products from 
your local meteorological service for more information. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
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So it turns out that the image above was actuslly picking up on a system that may cross over from the Pacific and develop last next week in the Bay of Campeche. It will have to be watched over the next several days.

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Claudette…

There is a 70 percent chance that the low pressure area and thunderstorms currently located in the Bay of Campeche in southern Mexico will strengthen into a tropical cyclone over the next 48 hours, the National Hurricane Center said on its website. If so, the storm will be named Tropical Storm Claudette.

Hurricane season kicked off on June 1 and the National Hurricane Center has already tracked three storms, a rarity for this time of year and a possible indication of what is to come. Forecasters have warned that they expect an “above-average” Atlantic hurricane season.

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15 hours ago, Rip76 said:

Turn up the blastfurnace even higher now.

The only thing that might save us from "west side burnout" is that the circulation isn't that strong so it might not funnel a lot of hot air.  Predicted highs haven't changed much from their numbers earlier this week.

  • Hook 'Em 2
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  • 2 weeks later...

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is 
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the 
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers 
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization. 
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development, 
and a tropical depression is likely form during the next few days 
while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.  
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely 
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region 
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

3B1C0D82-A752-449F-AE92-49251B584D3D.png

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Elsa will be a hurricane, I've read "less land interaction in the Caribbean" "slows down before turning north" and "warm waters". I think living in hurricane country, I've learned to see these models so far out and despite the experts still predicting TS, go ahead and buy extra toilet paper, it's a hurricane. Hope not too bad and really hope that northern sweeps out into the Atlantic in a hurry.

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Sitting here in SW Florida (in the cone for Tuesday 2 AM as of now), waiting for the mass hysteria over a tropical storm. I am sure Publix and other stores will be out of water soon.
I feel you, I'm in NW Florida and I'm just waiting for the run on toilet paper, paper towels, and other meaningless items.
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6 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Elsa moving in as a hurricane to Tampa & St Pete....Paging @phdhornto the batphone.

cone graphic

Just saw this, son got engaged last night and we had a in-law dinner tonight.

Elsa will hit the coast as the weakest hurricane possible, about 74 mph. It'll put down a lot of rain and some minor flooding but it's moving fast and will probably gradually weaken as a skirts the Atlantic coast. Out of the country by thursday.

Hurricanes are never anything to slough off, but this one shouldn't be a relatively big deal.

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8 hours ago, WBT said:

Yeah but it's going up the eastern seaboard so it will be a big deal.  Maybe even a superstorm.

My bad.  Sometimes I forget that what happens in Washington, New York, and Boston is the only relevant news in the United States.

You're right.  And now we'll throw in "78 million at risk" headlines.  Becuase no one watches our shit anymore unless we go all Disaster Movie.

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Yeah the center moved over land, probably won't go back out.  It tried, but I think it'll poop out.  Still, should drop some serious rain on the SE and N. Mex. coasts.  We'll be in that lovely border between "a lot" and "nothing, and you'll like it" with the steep gradients of tropical lows.  Still, radar showing a big mess coming our way, the only question is will it dissipate on its northern edges before making it up here?  Right now I'm thinking more scattered, less amounts for our area.

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3 hours ago, phdhorn said:

Yeah the center moved over land, probably won't go back out.  It tried, but I think it'll poop out.  Still, should drop some serious rain on the SE and N. Mex. coasts.  We'll be in that lovely border between "a lot" and "nothing, and you'll like it" with the steep gradients of tropical lows.  Still, radar showing a big mess coming our way, the only question is will it dissipate on its northern edges before making it up here?  Right now I'm thinking more scattered, less amounts for our area.

This is exactly what happened today.  Don't expect much out of this today.  Maybe tomorrow, depending on movement.

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Boston and NYC be like
 
 

Of course it will. I’m in Boston now heading to Maine on Friday. I’m supposed to play golf on Friday. I leave the Gulf Coast and still have my plans interrupted by a goddamn tropical storm. Fuck you Mother Nature.
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On 7/7/2021 at 2:48 PM, Ogie Ogilthorpe said:

It was a non event in SW Florida, 24 hours of rain and flooding in the places that flood normally, but if you watched local news you would swear a category 5 was coming.

We ended up with quite a bit of rain which we needed so not all bad. It blew through pretty quickly though which was a plus. Sea turtle nests took major hits from the tide which sucks.

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  • 1 month later...

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