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2021 Hurricane & Cyclone Thread


Rip76

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Fred doesn't look to have a lot of oomph wherever it goes.  Lots of shear and other crap on the way.  Right now not forecast to get above TS strength, but of course that could change and probably will.  Maybe a 1 going into NE Florida late this week.

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Rented a beach house on St. George Island Florida Sunday through Friday.  Hope Fred either picks up his pace and gets on through or hooks East and goes through South Fl.  As luck would have it, the projected path right now is a fucking bullseye. 

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4 hours ago, Zwylde said:

Rented a beach house on St. George Island Florida Sunday through Friday.  Hope Fred either picks up his pace and gets on through or hooks East and goes through South Fl.  As luck would have it, the projected path right now is a fucking bullseye. 

That's part of the charm these coastal towns have. Get there early, do as the locals do. 

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6 hours ago, Zwylde said:

Rented a beach house on St. George Island Florida Sunday through Friday.  Hope Fred either picks up his pace and gets on through or hooks East and goes through South Fl.  As luck would have it, the projected path right now is a fucking bullseye. 

My condolences.

But anything that misses Texas is fine by me.

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On 8/10/2021 at 8:40 AM, Zwylde said:

Rented a beach house on St. George Island Florida Sunday through Friday.  Hope Fred either picks up his pace and gets on through or hooks East and goes through South Fl.  As luck would have it, the projected path right now is a fucking bullseye. 

IMO...Good news is its running at 16mph, that is really cooking.  I look at the forward moving speed a lot with these systems.  By Monday afternoon, the storm will all be but gone from the island at that speed and by Tuesday (based on the current path) you should have beach weather.  Once it hits land, the back side will be breaking up and you should be fine, and of course at 16mph, it will move through rather quickly.  Any movement east and you are golden.

I live along gulf coast, so i watch them pretty close.  We will know a lot more on this one after it passes Cuba/Dominica area

 

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17 hours ago, Brew said:

We need more rain in SWFL like we need another kick in the nuts but looks like more is on the way. The water is higher around our house at the moment than I can remember it being the last several years.

Yeah, I was in Port Charlotte last week on business and got soaked pretty good.  The locals at the hotel in Punta Gorda were telling me you have been drenched  a lot lately.

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Here are some models for 95L which is currently in the Atlantic .  It is a long way off (Aug 24 landfall), but it absolutely should be watched. 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_53.png

two_atl_2d0.png

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several 
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by 
early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical 
Atlantic near 20 mph.  This system could reach portions of the 
Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
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20 hours ago, Hate said:

Here are some models for 95L which is currently in the Atlantic .  It is a long way off (Aug 24 landfall), but it absolutely should be watched. 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_53.png

two_atl_2d0.png

A tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic several 
hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to 
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental 
conditions are expected to become gradually more conducive for 
development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by 
early next week while moving generally westward across the tropical 
Atlantic near 20 mph.  This system could reach portions of the 
Leeward Islands by late Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

GFS models don't do fuckall with that disturbance.  Definitely one to watch though.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021081206&fh=78

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18 hours ago, pearlandhorn said:

GFS models don't do fuckall with that disturbance.  Definitely one to watch though.

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=atl&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021081206&fh=78

We’ll then. Within the timing of this post and midnight, the GFS got it’s act together and is now projecting this storm in the Atlantic to be a 940 mb storm and destroy North Carolina and Virginia.

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Jim Cantore live look special.  St. George Island.  Brisk 25 mph right now.  No rain at least but this is gonna put a damper on the surf shark fishing for the next 48hrs.  I’m sure it will be perfect as soon as we’re loading up to leave on Friday.

 

image.thumb.jpeg.1466130301060a002aa5435638c9880a.jpeg

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18 hours ago, Zwylde said:

Jim Cantore live look special.  St. George Island.  Brisk 25 mph right now.  No rain at least but this is gonna put a damper on the surf shark fishing for the next 48hrs.  I’m sure it will be perfect as soon as we’re loading up to leave on Friday.

 

image.thumb.jpeg.1466130301060a002aa5435638c9880a.jpeg

St George in for a long day/night, though Panama City will get the worst of it.

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Grace is still going to Mexico at the moment.  There is still time for changes though,

 

235123_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

Some models are calling for a right turn after landfall, which would bring a lot of rain to Central Texas...possibly.

E88BfmeVUBsOutp?format=jpg&name=small

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5 hours ago, Hate said:

Grace is still going to Mexico at the moment.  There is still time for changes though,

 

235123_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

 

Some models are calling for a right turn after landfall, which would bring a lot of rain to Central Texas...possibly.

E88BfmeVUBsOutp?format=jpg&name=small

How about that one line making a run right up I-37  and stopping exactly on top of Austin

that’s fun.

low fuel light came on today. I hope there is still gas at the stations tomorrow morning 

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5 hours ago, UTexasFight said:

How about that one line making a run right up I-37  and stopping exactly on top of Austin

that’s fun.

low fuel light came on today. I hope there is still gas at the stations tomorrow morning 

We’ll have gas, it will just be from Russian oil and cost $6/gallon.

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Probably.  The Euro used to be the most dependable model, but they made some updates to it a couple of years ago and it has not performed as well since.  It literally used to be called "King Euro".  It still does fairly well once a COC (Center of Circulation) has formed, but it doesn't handle open waves quite as well as it once did.  I watch the models out of interest, but once a storm has formed I follow the NHC.  They are damn good at what they do.

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Yeah, my hat’s off to NHC for the way they handled Laura last year.  
 

There were a lot of people pushing that track towards Beaumont or even farther west, but NHC stuck with Lake Charles and ended up splitting the uprights Justin Tucker-style.

Edited by Welch
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1 hour ago, Welch said:

1385ABBA-B013-4E26-A475-A128A72275DD.thumb.png.c0b0a2e09f874d8eb3576bf3ad0f7ada.png

Courtesy of Mike’s Weather Page.

Most seem to be trending more north/east.

Euro had been pointed towards the middle Texas coast, now it’s Louisiana.

GFS had been northern Mexico, now lower Texas coast.

Just heard (TWC) if it hits south Texas, it will sit and not go anywhere.  

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Hate said:

Probably.  The Euro used to be the most dependable model, but they made some updates to it a couple of years ago and it has not performed as well since.  It literally used to be called "King Euro".  It still does fairly well once a COC (Center of Circulation) has formed, but it doesn't handle open waves quite as well as it once did.  I watch the models out of interest, but once a storm has formed I follow the NHC.  They are damn good at what they do.

Last season was very noticeable,  but I was so used to trusting the euro, when they had two Cat 5s heading for Galveston,  I bailed on the first one, the second, I hung around, even went to work in 50mph sustained winds.

Early in the season, but if I'm watching,  I'm watching the GFS. Hope everyone on the coast gets some rain and wind, but may it never be a hurricane.  

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Filled up and bought extra water. If it looks close I’m heading out early.  I live on the coast with an 18 month year old. Not risking anything. 
 

the issue is that I have no idea where to head. At this point most of texas and Louisiana can get hit. 
 

hell, some models show a hill country Harvey. That would be bad. 

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