Joe Biden 2022: Enter Dark Brandon

[Willfully Horn 7820]

11 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

OK, cool.  I've never heard of this guy, but Google tells me that he is a blogger that dropped out of HS, but later obtained the Canadian equivalent of a GED.  He also went on to college studies, but was not awarded any degrees.  Why, exactly, are you quoting him as an apparent authority on anything?

I offered his thoughts as counterpoint. You can attack him, or what he says. 
Hus ohservation that the progress of the New Deal is being acrively dismantled is right on the money. His claim that the success of programs like SS are dismissed as naive and unworkable by folks like you is also correct. But, folks like you, not you, per se, but folks armed with Friedman and the like preached fallacies that decades of contrary data still haven’t silenced. An example being the benefits of trickle down policies. 

Biden halved the deficit this year. The Rs are committed to a plan with a 3T price tag.

There’s more. It’s late. I will probably pick this back up tomorrow.  Feel free to dismiss whatever you care to ignore, or, show your work.

 

 

 

[Willfully Horn 7820]

9 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

I offered his thoughts as counterpoint. You can attack him, or what he says. 

…

There’s more. It’s late. I will probably pick this back up tomorrow.  Feel free to dismiss whatever you care to ignore, or, show your work.

 

 

 

As I suspected, the economists have ignored their critique from this guy, Doctorow, who has shown his work, and whose primary objective is to hit the bullet points from a book called “the Great Transformation,” by Karl Polanyi.”

While a critique of Polanyi’s theses would be interesting, it is not my purpose. 

I’ve quoted Doctorow’s take on the meat of Polanyi’s book. 

Quote

Polanyi's anti-economism critique was updated and formalized into five major areas:

I. Excessive reliance on models.Famously, Queen Elizabeth visited the London School of Economics and demanded to know why they hadn't predicted the Great Financial Crisis. Economic forecasting basically sucks, and even though it now consumes vastly more computing power and has vastly more data to crunch, it's only made the most marginal and tenuous improvements.

Noah rejects the comparison of economic forecasting to weather forecasting: since 1984, economic forecasting has incorporated 20,000 times more variables with few improvements, over the same period, the time horizon for weather forecasts has grown from a few days to a few weeks ("Hurricanes no longer surprise us. Financial crises still do").

Despite this, economicists continue to claim that models can solve our problems. In 1991, Larry Summers (ugh) said, "the laws of economics, it’s often forgotten, are like the laws of engineering. There’s only one set of laws and they work everywhere."

Summers' economicist doctrine was at work in post-Soviet Russia, where the models confidently predicted that an "open economy" would be unleash massive growth. Instead, it delivered "a semi-fascist and not terribly prosperous kleptocracy."

II. Underreliance on data. As Ely Devons famously quipped, "If economists wished to study the horse, they wouldn’t go and look at horses. They’d sit in their studies and say to themselves, ‘What would I do if I were a horse?’"

As Robert Skidelsky wrote, an economics that can't validate its hypotheses empirically "has a strong tendency to slide into ideology."

In the pre-economicist age, economists focused on "history and the dynamics of change." These were the New Deal "institutional economists" of the 1930s, who were supplanted by the more math-heavy Keynesians and then the purely theoretical neo-classicals. These economists were seduced by "beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics," which they "mistook for truth," in the words of Paul Krugman.

https://www.nytimes.com/2009/09/06/magazine/06Economic-t.html

The difficulty of finding data and the seductive power of models produced an establishment that dismissed the evidence before them, and common sense, as inconsistent with the theory and thus wrong. This is how the "virtual consensus" that minimum wage hikes increase unemployment was born, and it's why the minimum wage stagnated at $7.25, lower in real terms that the minimum wage MLK marched against in 1963.

https://www.jstor.org/stable/2677856#metadata_info_tab_contents

III. A rejection of society. At the core of economism is a rejection of the very idea of society ("There is no such thing as society" – M. Thatcher). The only way to understand our lives is to model us as individuals, making individual choices and expressing individual preferences. Economism gives short shrift to how individuals affect one another.

Nowhere is this more visible than in Garrett Hardin's 1968 hoax "The Tragedy of the Commons," which purported to be a factual account of how people in communities persistently and reliably failed to manage common resources (Hardin, a eugenicist, was later revealed to have made the whole thing up):

https://memex.craphound.com/2019/10/01/the-tragedy-of-the-commons-how-ecofascism-was-smuggled-into-mainstream-thought/

The actual nature of how people manage commons is far more interesting. Elinor Ostrom – one of the few women to have been given an economics "Nobel" – has devoted her career to analyzing and explaining the long, factual history of well-managed commons, some of which have been run successfully for centuries:

https://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/elinor-ostroms-8-principles-managing-commmons

IV. A failure to understand "irrationality." In the neoclassical model humans are present as "rational utility-maximizing agents" whose actions can be predicted by asking "What would this person rationally do to get the most out of their situation" (e.g. "What would I do if I was a horse?").

In the early 2000s, the "behavioral economists" turned the profession upside-down by taking the radical step of observing how people actuallybehaved, which turned out to bear little relation to the homo economicus of the models.

This "irrationality" could also often be called "ethics" – for example, the decision in various "ultimatum games" to punish selfish people, even if it means getting less for yourself. You can view this as "irrationality" if your sole conception of human motivation is "how do I get more for myself?" But you can equally say, "I don't like people who betray the social contract and I am prepared to go with less if it means punishing them."

But by insisting that ethics are irrational, economism can actually do away with them. Michael Sandel's 2012 book "What Money Can’t Buy," offers examples of things that you shouldn't be subject to market forces, like concierge medical services. A decade later, these have gone from examples of the unthinkable to actual products.

https://us.macmillan.com/books/9780374533656/whatmoneycantbuy

V. The prejudices of economism.Economists themselves are more likely to behave like "economic man," "pursuing self-interest at the expense of cooperation":

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167268111000746

Economists also give less to charity than other sorts of people:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0167268111000746#!

It is one of the least racially and gender-diverse of all disciplines:

https://www.piie.com/research/piie-charts/us-economics-phds-are-less-socioeconomically-and-racially-diverse-other-major

It's one thing for a profession to be so different from the majority – but when that profession has elevated itself to the final arbiter of all regulation and government, its narrow composition and ideological blinkers start to tell.

Anyway, there’s much more to think about here. I will submit again the original link.

https://pluralistic.net/2022/10/27/economism/#what-would-i-do-if-i-were-a-horse

[elfenix 34000]

recovery is much faster than the last one:

 

 

wealth of the bottom half has more than doubled:

 

Edited October 28, 2022 by elfenix

[Js1 82354]

Quote

 

stimulus checks family of four: $11,400, that's almost 20% of the median family income. the labor market has never been better. raises for low-wage workers, many job openings, and moving up career ladders.

Conservatives:

[Biff Tannen 44917]

10 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

This "irrationality" could also often be called "ethics" – for example, the decision in various "ultimatum games" to punish selfish people, even if it means getting less for yourself. You can view this as "irrationality" if your sole conception of human motivation is "how do I get more for myself?" But you can equally say, "I don't like people who betray the social contract and I am prepared to go with less if it means punishing them."

This is a VERY difficult concept for conservatives to grasp, I feel.

[wildcat09 28387]

Just now, Biff Tannen said:

This is a VERY difficult concept for conservatives to grasp, I feel.

They grasp it just fine in other contexts. For example, they love to vote for policies that hurt them because the same policies hurt poor black people more.

[Willfully Horn 7820]

Here’s proof I am often petty.

Hey, @DalTxHornFan

”Related to this is the fact that the Economics Nobel isn't actually a Nobel at all – rather, it is part of economism's drive to subordinate evidence-based science to economicist ideology. The prize was created 73 years after the Nobel by Sweden's finance sector, who backed it with a perpetual grant, in a bid to establish that economics was a science:”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-economics-nobel-isnt-really-a-nobel/

 

[jimmyjazz 45055]

Economics isn't referred to as a "soft science" for no good reason.

[MeerkatBong 115]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

Economics isn't referred to as a "soft science" for no good reason.

"social science"

[Willfully Horn 7820]

Whether soft, or social, it’s got the decision makers by the balls.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33693]

Not sure tfg could even get his leg that high

 

 

[elfenix 34000]

rents apparently dropping hard, but might not show up until next year due to measurement lag:

 

 

 

[jimmyjazz 45055]

Claudia Sahm seems like she needs to post on surly.

[Longhorn_Fan68 33693]

 

[Biff Tannen 44917]

21 hours ago, elfenix said:

rents apparently dropping hard, but might not show up until next year due to measurement lag:

 

 

 

 

8 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Claudia Sahm seems like she needs to post on surly.

If she tweeted "You're killing your father Larry!" at him, I would lose my shit.

[TexEx15 16784]

 

[Bama Chick 28595]

Joe Biden is officially the best president in history.

[tchookem 3892]

Joe Biden is officially the best president in history.

Somewhere Eddie Vedder is smiling.

[tigol 2374]

On 10/28/2022 at 10:46 AM, wildcat09 said:

They grasp it just fine in other contexts. For example, they love to vote for policies that hurt them because the same policies hurt poor black people more.

I was gruntled to hear my Father In Law bitch about how he had to drive 10 miles farther to vote this year.  My SIL and I looked at each other and said in unison, "You voted for this."  All we got was ignored.

[Gravy Train 969]

On 10/30/2022 at 11:42 AM, jimmyjazz said:

Claudia Sahm seems like she needs to post on surly.

I'm objectively trying to give her tweets consideration, but she failed to mention M2 and the role of Central Banks in the rapid bounce-back from COVID-19 (which directly contributed to inflationary pressures).  She also floated out some confidence in rents falling at such a rate to not significantly impact CPI until the middle of next year... a metric that's mostly demand-side driven.

Guess I'll keep reading?  LOL I should ask her which portions of the Inflation Reduction Act address austerity measures.

[elfenix 34000]

Quote

A friend of mine once said: You know what the problem is with being an economist? Everyone has an opinion about the economy. Nobody goes up to a geologist and says, 'Igneous rocks are fucking bullshit.'

 

[pacman 7212]

my only complaint, we need more dark brandon. Much, much more...

 

 

[elfenix 34000]

 

[Voldemort86 2230]

That’s part 2 of the GOP playbook. After the feared event has passed and nothing has happened, sweep it under the rug, pretend it was never a problem, give nobody any credit, and immediately look for the next scare tactic. The olds and rural folk need their daily dose of hate serum.

[Incredulity 11141]

If a speech falls in the forest and no one is there to hear it, does it make a sound?

[StassneyHorn 6407]

You watched it.

[High Plains Drifter 10915]

 

Compare this to the shit that the traitor family posts

 

 

 

 

[High Plains Drifter 10915]

On 11/1/2022 at 11:02 AM, elfenix said:

 

 

uh well, actually, I used to volunteer at a nature center and led geology based hikes and one time I unknowingly had a group of religious wackos who told me that there was no way the igneous rocks we were currently walking on were any more than 6 or 7 thousand years old.

 

[fattyflattie 4631]

Brow game is strong to very strong. 

[tx 3 putt 74767]

no idea where to put this. it's just a great listen and reminder of days when both sides would come together for the better of the country 

 

Edited November 4, 2022 by tx 3 putt

[brakeman 28040]

 

Alright, alright, alright.

Protect your Democracy!

Vote.

 

[StassneyHorn 6407]

I didn’t do a Jobsgiving eve post this month because the Astros got me too drunk last night. 

Fed can’t stop Joe Biden from delivering turkeys for Thanksgiving and Gifts for Christmas.

261k. 
Unemployment rate up
Labor participation rate down
Wages continued to go up

 

[mchookem 15429]

we are so fucked. and posters on this site support it. GOTDAMMIT. 

never in my worst nightmare and wildest imagination would i have thought i would see the downfall of American democracy in my lifetime.

i have never been more relieved in my life that i don't have children...i would be nothing but a ball of anxiety, rage and depression trying to encourage my children to lead happy lives and not worry, things will be fine, just be positive. it's bad enough just having one niece and goddaughters...

listening to them rage and lament the state of the world and why they should even bother with things like college, careers, voting, relationships, their futures...it's difficult to come up with encouraging things to say when the nightmare scenarios just keep becoming reality. 

i mean...what is there to say? we're fucked.

[MeerkatBong 115]

Quote

 

The outcome of tomorrow’s midterm elections could be influenced by something the government has little control over: the cost of filling up your car with gas.

Since the 1970s, presidential approval ratings have tended to sag when gas prices rise. And that correlation has been especially pronounced this year as inflation has run rampant and gas prices have spiked.

The Washington Post found that the share of Americans who said the country was on the right track has moved remarkably in sync with gas prices.

Since gas prices peaked in June, the correlation between Democratic generic-ballot polling and the price of gas clocked in at minus-.91, nearly a perfect inverse correlation (which is minus-1).

Why are gas prices so powerful?

Because it’s the only consumer good whose price we’re reminded of virtually every time we leave the house, experts say. Unlike tuna fish or patio furniture or sneakers, the price of gas is advertised in size-500 font on huge signs that you can’t help but notice.

Gas prices have been so beaten into us that they can change our behavior over decades. Researchers at the University of Pennsylvania discovered that people who experienced raging gas prices in their formative driving years in the 1970s seemed less likely to drive to work 20 years later than other age cohorts.

The curious part about the link between voter sentiment and gas prices is that gas prices have very little to do with whoever’s occupying the White House. Gas prices are largely influenced by the price of crude oil, which is a globally traded commodity. That commodity has been dealt a shock this year by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, technical snags with refineries in the US, and OPEC+’s production cuts.

Still, President Biden’s team is fully aware of the importance of gas prices, which explains his incessant attacks on oil companies’ windfall profits, his releasing of crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, and his visit to Saudi Arabia, a major oil producer.

Price check: The current national average for a gallon of unleaded gas is $3.80, per AAA. That’s roughly the same as a month ago, down significantly from the record of more than $5, but about 38 cents more than a year ago.

 

 

[Biff Tannen 44917]

2 minutes ago, MeerkatBong said:

 

Yep.  The OPEC part is the most infuriating.  Seems to be an obvious play to help get Rs back in power, which benefits the Saudis of course.

[Bateshorn 9475]

Fight the GOP to a draw in midterms and see the Russians abandon Kherson?  Dark Brandon is kinda slinging it around. 
 

[Valmy77 12519]

Dark Brandon pushing things like decriminalizing weed and easing student loan debt and all that I think made a big difference in holding back the red wave.

He needs to do more of it. Stuff that makes the lives of individual Americans better.

[Hook1997 5231]

On 11/4/2022 at 1:17 PM, mchookem said:

we are so fucked. and posters on this site support it. GOTDAMMIT. 

never in my worst nightmare and wildest imagination would i have thought i would see the downfall of American democracy in my lifetime.

 

i mean...what is there to say? we're fucked

Eh I’ve heard this exact sentiment ever election by some of either side that loses for the last 30 plus years.  We just bounce back and forth over and over again and life goes on.  The sky is not falling. 

[wildcat09 28387]

19 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Fight the GOP to a draw in midterms and see the Russians abandon Kherson?  Dark Brandon is kinda slinging it around. 
 

Now let's park a couple of carrier battle groups in the Persian Gulf and ask MBS if he'd like to reconsider trying to fuck with our elections.

[wildcat09 28387]

6 minutes ago, Hook1997 said:

Eh I’ve heard this exact sentiment ever election by some of either side that loses for the last 30 plus years.  We just bounce back and forth over and over again and life goes on.  The sky is not falling. 

The reason the sky is not falling quite yet is because we narrowly avoided having GOP lunatics in charge of running elections and counting the votes in a half dozen swing states.  The threat is still very real.

[mchookem 15429]

yeah, pretty sure i happily ate crow in one of the election threads. 

HOWEVER... just bc authoritarianism was beaten back this time doesn't mean the threat wasn't/isn't real. the stakes were that high.

which is why it's such a relief to be surprised at the results. 

[Biff Tannen 44917]

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

yeah, pretty sure i happily ate crow in one of the election threads. 

HOWEVER... just bc authoritarianism was beaten back this time doesn't mean the threat wasn't/isn't real. the stakes were that high.

which is why it's such a relief to be surprised at the results. 

The votes are still being counted.  All it takes is losing the House.

[Mrs Whiggins 13049]

32 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

The votes are still being counted.  All it takes is losing the House.

True, but meanwhile I enjoyed the 'oh, yeah?'

Biden understands what gets under the skin of a bully.

But,  resentment politics (per The Atlantic) is what Trump & Co do very successfully so we'll see how that shakes out over the next two years. I have concerns that it's going to escalate in several sectors: (more local level GOP inroads), more gerrymandering to cement states that were already heavily GOP, and more outbursts of domestic terrorism. I'm hoping I am wrong. I haven't gone around RW social and won't for a little while until more of the results shake out and then will see how the mood is. They are still a powder keg and it's worrisome.

 

[Born to Run 6186]

Eh I’ve heard this exact sentiment ever election by some of either side that loses for the last 30 plus years.  We just bounce back and forth over and over again and life goes on.  The sky is not falling. 

Sure, I voted for McCain and wasn't unhappy when Obama won (it wasnt a big deal), I just expected Obama would get the JFK treatment and it would hurt the country.

Fast forward through a decade of passive aggressive racism culminating in a attempted overthrown of our Capitol with dead bodies, and many more bodies deserving to be dead and I'm a little less rosey on the whole situation bro.

[tx 3 putt 74767]

 

[tx 3 putt 74767]

 

[Js1 82354]

7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Every time Biden or Dems get wins, he gets saltier and funnier 

[jimmyjazz 45055]

He's always been salty.

[Js1 82354]

Saw this proposed on Twitter and figured it could go here

If you're Biden and the Dem Senate, knowing the Senate map is ass in 2024 and may take a while to win back... Do you push Sotomayor and/or Kagan to retire early to install someone in their 40s or early 50s onto the Court for 20-30 years? 

We all know about RBG not retiring under Obama when she had the chance before 2014 and what happened then. 

Dems have had two 10+ year stints where they had 0 SCOTUS nominees (81-93 but they didn't hold the presidency and 95-09 when they had Bill Clinton as POTUS for nearly half of that)

Sotomayor will be 70 in 2024 and Kagan will be 64.  Kagan can hold on for 10-15 years, but Sotomayor is also diabetic. 

[Gengs1 2583]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Saw this proposed on Twitter and figured it could go here

If you're Biden and the Dem Senate, knowing the Senate map is ass in 2024 and may take a while to win back... Do you push Sotomayor and/or Kagan to retire early to install someone in their 40s or early 50s onto the Court for 20-30 years? 

We all know about RBG not retiring under Obama when she had the chance before 2014 and what happened then. 

Dems have had two 10+ year stints where they had 0 SCOTUS nominees (81-93 but they didn't hold the presidency and 95-09 when they had Bill Clinton as POTUS for nearly half of that)

Sotomayor will be 70 in 2024 and Kagan will be 64.  Kagan can hold on for 10-15 years, but Sotomayor is also diabetic. 

Yes you do, you have a sit down with them and ask their thoughts and encourage it. Ask them to provide you a list who they want their replacement to be and make it happen. Promise them they will get their pick on replacement and Ram it through.

Dem needs to think long term here 

 

on their way out, push one of them Rs from a stairs and get pardoned as well

Edited November 10, 2022 by Gengs1