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Twilight In T-Town: The End of the Nick Saban Era


closetojumping

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It’s funny Rees is catching 99% of the blame, but their OL Coach Eric Wolford has largely stayed out of the spotlight. Many Bama insiders wanted him replaced in the off-season. Bama gave 5 sacks against USF and 5 sacks against Texas. That’s not all on the QB and OC. At some point the OL needs to block somebody. 

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3 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

It’s funny Rees is catching 99% of the blame, but their OL Coach Eric Wolford has largely stayed out of the spotlight. Many Bama insiders wanted him replaced in the off-season. Bama gave 5 sacks against USF and 5 sacks against Texas. That’s not all on the QB and OC. At some point the OL needs to block somebody. 

Rees and his QBs do the line no favors by constantly putting the freshman tackle on an island.  They have athletic TEs so he likes to send them out Michael Mayer style, but the freshman OT can't do a speed rush.

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Nick Saban and Alabama football have a quarterback problem

Alex Scarborough, ESPN    Sep 19, 2023, 

Quote

Alabama receivers aren't creating enough separation, the offensive line is allowing too much pressure in the backfield, getting a snap from center has turned into an adventure rather than a formality, the running game is inconsistent at best, players across the board are committing too many penalties, and the offense as a whole doesn't appear to have a sense of identity or direction.

Now Alabama finds itself outside the top 10 of The Associated Press' poll for the first time in eight years. With the Crimson Tide absent from the playoff conversation, hope seems a long way off. Whether that remains true for the rest of the season is anyone's guess.

And while it's unfair to pin all the blame on the quarterbacks (see above), a critical eye has to start there. It's the most important position on the field, and the sharp decline has been startling. Alabama is a program that passed its quarterback baton from Jalen Hurts to Tua Tagovailoa to Mac Jones to Bryce Young. Depending on how you count Hurts' time at Oklahoma, you're talking about one or two Heisman Trophy winners and two Heisman finalists.

Coaches around the SEC last season said privately Young was covering up a lot of Alabama's flaws, including the mediocre play on the line and at receiver that continues today, but no one thought to look further down the depth chart at what would be missing once he left. To go from four consecutive future NFL starting quarterbacks to the rotation of backups we saw Saturday against South Florida boggles the mind.

Jalen Milroe, Young's former backup who began the season as the starter and was benched after throwing two interceptions in a loss to Texas, didn't take a single snap in Tampa. Tyler Buchner, the late addition from Notre Dame, got the start and completed 5 of 14 passes for 34 yards before he was pulled. His replacement, redshirt freshman Ty Simpson, wasn't much better, running for a 1-yard touchdown and completing 5 of 9 pass attempts for 73 yards.

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Against an unranked opponent it was favored to beat by five touchdowns, against a team that had given up 41 points to Western Kentucky in the season opener, Alabama had to grind out a 17-3 win that ranked among the ugliest of coach Nick Saban's 16-year tenure. Buchner and Simpson posted an 18.5 QBR in the game, the fourth lowest in 224 games under Saban and the lowest since 2009 against South Carolina.

Forget the five sacks, the 13 incompletions and that paltry QBR. Forget all those penalties that wiped points off the board. The video of a rain-soaked Saban leaving the field during a lightning delay told the story of a frustrating day.

Afterward, Saban was noncommittal about next steps.

But Monday, he seemed to have made up his mind.

"This is all I'm going to say about this," Saban said. "Jalen really showed the leadership I was looking for in terms of supporting his teammates."

Milroe, he added, "has earned the opportunity to be the quarterback."

But if Milroe has another performance like the one against Texas -- where he telegraphed his passes and threw a pair of back-breaking interceptions -- will Saban stick with him? Saban craves consistency from his quarterbacks and values the ability to take care of the football seemingly above all else. Old-school, he's said on more than one occasion that if a drive ends in a kick, whether it's a field goal or a punt, that's fine by him.

So pay attention because the drama might not be over yet.

But before asking where Saban and Alabama go from here, you have to ask how they got here in the first place. How is it that no one was ready to replace Young after he left school as the No. 1 overall draft pick? How did it fall to Milroe, Buchner and Simpson? How did it get to the point that the break in case of emergency option -- true freshman Dylan Lonergan -- might have his number called before he's ready?

The answer is complicated. Some sources close to the program say it's as simple as the program's luck finally running out. The Hurts-Tagovailoa-Jones-Young run was unprecedented for a reason, they say. But other, more cynical sources, question the recruiting and development at the position the last two-plus years.

Milroe might not have been Alabama's pick in the 2021 class had Drake Maye not decommitted in March 2020, opting instead to sign at North Carolina. Fast-forward to the end of last season and Alabama was back sniffing around Maye, according to multiple sources, in the event that he entered the transfer portal, which he didn't.

By the time it became clear neither Milroe nor Simpson had separated themselves -- after going through all of spring practice -- Alabama was too late to find a top quarterback in the transfer portal. Sam Hartman had already gone to Notre Dame and Brennan Armstrong had already gone to NC State. The rest of the SEC had already cleaned up with Kentucky signing Devin Leary, who broke Philip Rivers' single-season school record for touchdowns at NC State, and Ole Miss signing Spencer Sanders, an All Big-12 pick at Oklahoma State, and Walker Howard, a former five-star who spent his freshman year at LSU.

The rumor mill briefly connected Alabama and Miami's Tyler Van Dyke in April; the speculation was so rampant that the Canes' official X account posted a not-so-subtle message affirming Van Dyke's commitment to the program. When the music stopped and the portal quit spinning, it was Buchner, who would have been Hartman's backup, that became the best option remaining. And even then, Buchner was brought in not with the expectation that he'd be a slam dunk starter but rather as someone who could compete and push Milroe and Simpson.

Maybe he did that. Maybe he didn't. But Simpson started the season third on the depth chart for a reason and Milroe, despite being the starter the first two games, didn't show noticeable improvement in his first real test against Texas. A former SEC coach said Milroe simply isn't skilled enough in the short-to-intermediate passing game, which is what Alabama needs to keep defenses honest.

A Power 5 defensive coordinator said Milroe was essentially the same player he watched on film from a year ago: "Big play or nothing." But in Milroe's defense, he's had to deal with a not insignificant amount of turnover during his time at Alabama. Former offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian -- a wizard with the run-pass option -- recruited him and left to become the head coach at Texas two weeks after he signed his letter of intent. Then, when the opportunity to start finally came this year, the O-coordinator who coached Milroe the past three seasons, Bill O'Brien, left to join the New England Patriots.

That's not all. Alex Mortensen, the analyst and behind-the-scenes quarterback guru who spent nine seasons at Alabama, left in December to join the new staff at UAB. On Monday, Georgia coach Kirby Smart said of Mortensen, "He was at Alabama behind all the offenses -- worked with Bill O'Brien, worked with Sark, was there when I was there. I have a lot of respect for Alex."

Meanwhile, new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees has pulled back some on the RPO game (down 3.1% from 2021-22, down 7.3% from 2019-20) that might suit Milroe's skill set best.

"He's in a tough spot, but I do think he's talented," the Power 5 coordinator said of Milroe. "He throws a great deep ball, can create on his own. He just doesn't have that ability to make the off-platform throws that Bryce Young did."

Here's the thing, though: Alabama doesn't need any of its quarterbacks to be Bryce Young to have a more effective offense. At this point, it would take another Jake Coker -- someone who can manage the game, take the occasional deep shot and limit bad plays. In fact, last week Saban compared the offense's struggles to what the team went through in 2015 when Coker and Cooper Bateman competed for the starting job through the first three games of the season, including a heartbreaking loss to Ole Miss that prompted some in the media to speculate that Alabama's dynasty was at its end. Coker won the job, the Tide ran the table and won the national championship.

But that optimistic narrative has one glaring plot hole: This team doesn't appear to have another Derrick Henry to feed at running back. Henry set an SEC single-season record with 1,986 rushing yards in 2015 and won the Heisman.

With Saban reinserting Milroe into the starting lineup against Ole Miss on Saturday (3:30 p.m. ET, CBS), will he use his speed to field a more run-heavy offense? It's certainly possible. But can the offensive line support it? And will the receivers hold up their end of the bargain? And will the team stop shooting itself in the foot with penalties and unforced errors?

Picking a lane on offense is a good start to figuring things out, but it's going to take a lot more than that for Alabama to get back on track and back in the playoff hunt.

Until then, the questions about who should start at quarterback will dominate the conversation and the doubts over the health of Saban's dynasty won't end.

Julian Sayin, the No. 1-ranked dual-threat quarterback and No. 3 overall prospect in next year's class, has been committed to Alabama for nearly a year now and represents hope for the future. But he can't get to Tuscaloosa soon enough.

 

 

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On 9/18/2023 at 11:02 AM, LTtxfan said:

Lane Kiffin shares why they're preparing for a new-look Alabama defense

Kevin Steele is the Tide's defensive coordinator in title, but Lane Kiffin is preparing for a different defensive play caller this weekend.

DOUG SAMUELS    2 HOURS AGO

After losing to Texas and giving up 34 points at home in a rare early season loss for Nick Saban, it was no secret that there were going to be some changes at Alabama.

When the Tide took the field against USF on Saturday, those changes started at the quarterback position, as both Ty Simpson and Tyler Buchner struggled, combining to throw for just over 100 yards.

That's not where the changes seemed to have ended, as Lane Kiffin recently pointed out.

While veteran defensive coordinator Kevin Steele was brought back to Tuscaloosa this off season, after calling defenses at Clemson, LSU, Auburn, and Miami, the game against South Florida showed a new influence on the defensive side of the ball.

Kiffin told reporters Sunday during a Zoom interview yesterday that he believes there were some significant changes on the defensive side of the ball.

"I don’t know what happened after the Texas game, but you know, our guys watching the TV copy schematically in this last game, it certainly seems like T-Rob’s now calling the defense."

Secondary coach Travaris Robinson has been on staff since January of 2022, and the former South Carolina defensive coordinator from 2016-19 initially worked with just the corners before he took over the entire secondary this season.

"We played him before at South Carolina, so we’re preparing accordingly, you know, for him calling the defense. He’s done a good job too, and they’ve got really good players."

After previously working with Steele at Alabama, and then coaching against him when he moved on to LSU and Auburn, Kiffin has a hold on what a Kevin Steele defense looks like, and Saturday's game for the Tide showed a new influence with Robinson's DNA clearly discernable to the veteran offensive play caller.

The Rebels will travel to Bryant-Denny on Saturday to face off at 3:30pm EST on CBS.

 

This is funny... I think Kiffin was just fuckin' with Saban to piss him off... 😋

 

Saban refuted Kiffin’s assertion on Bama DC

He has all the defensive coordinator responsibilities,” Saban said Monday of Steele. “The only thing that we tried to improve on from an administrative standpoint was game day administration of getting the signals in quicker.

“That’s the only thing that we worked on together as a staff. The whole staff made a contribution to it, and I think it was a lot better in this game than it was in the Texas game.”

 

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  • 2 months later...
On 9/18/2023 at 11:28 PM, WBT said:

For everyone saying Bama loses 3 or 4 games: to whom?  With their defense, the conference looking way down, the lack of good qbs on the schedule, and the mental edge they still hold over that conference, I have a hard time seeing anyone other than LSU beating them.  It should be fun to watch.

Bump.

Not that I disagreed with the thesis that they're on the decline and won't return to their previous highs.  But 11-1 is 11-1.

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8 hours ago, WBT said:

Bump.

Not that I disagreed with the thesis that they're on the decline and won't return to their previous highs.  But 11-1 is 11-1.

Your original post was spot on. For all of the talk about “Bama has finally figured out how to use Milroe” and “this isn’t the same team that lost to Texas”, they’re just a good team playing against a really overrated set of opponents. Since my original post, they embarrassed themselves against South Florida and then skated by a down SEC west. 

Now I assume they’ll somehow beat Georgia and get touted as a deserving playoff recipient over a Texas team with the same record that beat them by double digits on their home field because … herp deeeerrrrrpp SECx3. 

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I personally think Bama never gets within 2 scores of Georgia, but am gruntled that they went 11-1 and to the SEC cg because it makes us look better in the beauty contest with Oregon. I was hopeful they wouldn’t collapse and they’d figure it out, and to the extent they have, it’s good enough.

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

Your original post was spot on. For all of the talk about “Bama has finally figured out how to use Milroe” and “this isn’t the same team that lost to Texas”, they’re just a good team playing against a really overrated set of opponents. Since my original post, they embarrassed themselves against South Florida and then skated by a down SEC west. 

Now I assume they’ll somehow beat Georgia and get touted as a deserving playoff recipient over a Texas team with the same record that beat them by double digits on their home field because … herp deeeerrrrrpp SECx3. 

Personally, I love how you have two long ass screeds that are front and center for how not right they are, but you're still doubling down. Never change. 

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On 9/11/2023 at 1:34 PM, Wulaw Horn said:

He's young.  This is equivalent to VY's 2003 year and people wanted to turn him into a WR and Chance Mock had to come bail him out of the Texas Tech game.  He has good touch on the deep ball and a good arm. IF he keeps working at it and improving he can be a really outstanding college QB I think.  

Oh look, that was super hard to see coming. 

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Just to be clear, I did trademark the term Alabraska.  That's still coming.  But the people who said Milroe sucked and would always suck are the same kind of paint chip eaters that think MM could be a great college QB, or that don't see that Arch is going to be awesome.  It's really not that hard to see some of these things yall.  

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There's a very strong narrative that MIlroe was terrible in the beginning of the season, and is now a very good / borderline elite quarterback.  And that doesn't make any sense at all.

Against Texas, he made some mistakes, but showed amazing athleticism and made several good throws.

Yesterday against Auburn, he made some mistakes, but showed amazing athleticism and made several good throws.

Narrative should be that he's been good all season, and his performance is a function of the quality of the defense he's facing.  Benching him against USF didn't make any sense.  He had a solid game against a very good UT defense the previous week.  I don't know what they were expecting.

Milroe's QBR against ESPN Defensive Efficiency Rank:

Top 25% (UT, TAMU, Auburn, Tenn, Ole Miss) = 72.5, which is very good considering the level of competition, and only 2 points lower than Ewers' total QBR on the season.

Next 25% (Kentucky, Miss St, Ark) = 85.5

Bottom 50% (MTSU, LSU, Chattanooga) = 93.0

To put that in context, in the game MIlroe was benched, Alabama QBs combined for QBR around 13, which is horrendous.  TUSF has the 118th ranked defensive efficiency per ESPN.

A very good QB is slightly worse against good defenses.  News at 11.

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These Nick Saban demise threads are hilarious.

2013: Alabama is coming off back to back MNC wins and misses out on the BCSCG because of the kick-6 at Auburn.

-Reaction: OMG here comes the fall!

2015: Alabama loses to Ole Miss for a second time in a row, because of fluke helmet bounce TD.

-Reaction: Ole Miss owns him! The tide era is over!

(Bama would win the MNC that year)

2019: Alabama gets crushed by Clemson in the 2018 season CFPCG and would get beat by Joe Burrow at home the following season.

-Reaction: He's really done now! He just can't hog all of the best recruits anymore!!1!

(Bama goes on to win it all in 2020)

2022: Alabama goes 10-2, immediately after losing a rematch CFPCG to a Georgia team they had dominated a few weeks prior.

-Reaction: Saban is getting old. He just isn't as passionate anymore. He can't compete with Georgia.

(Beats them the very next year)

Saban is a arguably the best coach in the sport's history. We owe him a huge thanks for developing Sark into the team builder and program CEO that he has become.

Edited by USNALonghorn
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On 11/26/2023 at 8:51 AM, BeardIP said:

I personally think Bama never gets within 2 scores of Georgia, but am gruntled that they went 11-1 and to the SEC cg because it makes us look better in the beauty contest with Oregon. I was hopeful they wouldn’t collapse and they’d figure it out, and to the extent they have, it’s good enough.

Obviously was wrong about Georgia, but I appreciate Bama figuring it out after we played them because without Bama going undefeated I don’t think we get in after an OU loss. Bama a) winning out and b) necessarily beating UGA to win out helped us as much as it helped them. After the OU loss our fates were yoked; and we are both dancing!

Edited by BeardIP
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14 minutes ago, BeardIP said:

Obviously was wrong about Georgia, but I appreciate Bama figuring it out after we played them because without Bama going undefeated I don’t think we get in after an OU loss. Bama a) winning out and b) necessarily beating UGA to win out helped us as much as it helped them. After the OU loss our fates were yoked; and we are both dancing!

Bama is the exact same team we played. They look the same. Mediocre o line. Terrible center. Talented QB that is playing in the wrong offense. They just unnecessarily panicked after playing us (and our d line in particular). 

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  • 1 month later...

So, yeah, that happened. I figured he'd stay on for a few more years, but allegedly a health issue is a factor. My friends say that the conversation with the longer staff members tonight was also about it being time. He's looked at having to replace 3 assistants and managing the portal this spring and raising more NIL money and just felt tired, a lot, this week. Felt like it was time and the landscape had changed. 

 

On 9/17/2023 at 5:45 PM, closetojumping said:

Texas is the Ra’s al Ghul of college football. When things fall too far out of balance due to an overbearing dynasty, Texas is compelled to climb out of the Lazarus Pits and return to restore an equilibrium. See Nebraska, USC, and Alabama. Georgia comes to town next season. 

I don't know where things really do go for Bama, but, yeah, I like my characterization of who we are. 

On 12/3/2023 at 3:07 PM, Jkwellborn said:

Their center is really bad at snapping the ball.

This was well said and even more meaningful now. 

 

 

 

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So if you are Bama, and can probably pick any coach on the planet, who do you pick?
IMO, the whole allure of playing for Bama was playing for Saban. I know your scenario is hypothetical, but Bama minus Saban isn't really that hot of a destination, and the idea of them being to "pick any coach" I think is a stretch
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7 minutes ago, Smax said:
31 minutes ago, tbone_ said:
So if you are Bama, and can probably pick any coach on the planet, who do you pick?

IMO, the whole allure of playing for Bama was playing for Saban. I know your scenario is hypothetical, but Bama minus Saban isn't really that hot of a destination, and the idea of them being to "pick any coach" I think is a stretch

Stretch? Got a list of guys who'll say "No, thanks"? 

Edited by Tex Long
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1 minute ago, Tex Long said:

Stretch? Got a list of guys who'll say "No. thanks"? 

Sark (hopefully) and smart for starters.  I think it'll take someone special that is brash and arrogant enough to believe they can continue to feed the beast.  

College Football Yes GIF by SEC Network

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3 minutes ago, Not a cat said:

Sark (hopefully) and smart for starters.  I think it'll take someone special that is brash and arrogant enough to believe they can continue to feed the beast.  

 

So... Lane Kiffin. 

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43 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Me? I'm taking Sark, and he's bringing Arch Manning with him. 

After we thought we were on our way up with Beard in Basketball, and then having it all crumble in a single day, how dare you wish this upon us!

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I wouldn’t want to be the Bama coach next, after that, after that, or after that. Maybe the 5th one. They need to be desperate again because nowadays the rebuild is immediate with the portal wide open.

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47 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

Stretch? Got a list of guys who'll say "No, thanks"? 

Sarkisian, Smart, any smart ones concerned with their legacy. Following Saban in Tuscaloosa right as NIL and the portal hit is a career killing waiting to happen.

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Stretch? Got a list of guys who'll say "No, thanks"? 
No, because like you, neither of us run in the circles where we know coaches. Everything is pure speculation and opinion

I just think without Saban, what's the appeal of Bama over Texas?

I cant come up with a single advantage in bamas favor, can you
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4 minutes ago, Smax said:

No, because like you, neither of us run in the circles where we know coaches. Everything is pure speculation and opinion

I just think without Saban, what's the appeal of Bama over Texas?

I cant come up with a single advantage in bamas favor, can you

Number of titles, winning tradition, at least with respect to other SEC programs at the top, but NIL is gonna fuck with them hard. I still think it’s a top 5 program and with NIL it probably only drops a few spots. Who is higher, long term? Texas, Georgia, USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon. Who else? Below that list it’s gotta be close to Bama. I don’t think they are going to be Alabraska. Could happen for a decade but that’s coaching search fuckups. Bama isn’t going to be irrelevant forever in the SEC.

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I wouldn’t want to be the Bama coach next, after that, after that, or after that. Maybe the 5th one. They need to be desperate again because nowadays the rebuild is immediate with the portal wide open.

I get this and we all get this. But I wonder how many super confident, super aggressive, super competitive coaches think this way.

I’m far from an NIL expert, but can the right coach still get the best players at Alabama or has NIL changed that equation?
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1 minute ago, tbone_ said:


I get this and we all get this. But I wonder how many super confident, super aggressive, super competitive coaches think this way.

I’m far from an NIL expert, but can the right coach still get the best players at Alabama or has NIL changed that equation?

Coaches are generally meat heads - not our friends here but a lot of them, so yeah someone will take it. But if I’m DeBoer no, Sark, no, Smart, no. After those three I think quality goes down quickly.  So an up and comer will do it for the chance and the cash. Probably think Bama can recruit itself. That ain’t true. 

Edited by troph
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5 minutes ago, troph said:

Number of titles, winning tradition, at least with respect to other SEC programs at the top, but NIL is gonna fuck with them hard. I still think it’s a top 5 program and with NIL it probably only drops a few spots. Who is higher, long term? Texas, Georgia, USC, Michigan, Ohio State, Oregon. Who else? Below that list it’s gotta be close to Bama. I don’t think they are going to be Alabraska. Could happen for a decade but that’s coaching search fuckups. Bama isn’t going to be irrelevant forever in the SEC.

I’d have Florida over them in the NiL landscape world. Bama, oklahoma and LSU at parity of blue blood or near blue blood schools with access to talent but lacking resources of other schools they are rivals with. Aggy would be above that tier if they ever could get out of their own way and if they could get the entire Texag crew to donate $50 a month to NIL efforts in addition to getting that sweet sweet oil money. 

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Just now, Wulaw Horn said:

I’d have Florida over them in the NiL landscape world. Bama, oklahoma and LSU at parity of blue blood or near blue blood schools with access to talent but lacking resources of other schools they are rivals with. Aggy would be above that tier if they ever could get out of their own way and if they could get the entire Texag crew to donate $50 a month to NIL efforts in addition to getting that sweet sweet oil money. 

Well isn’t Florida fucking it up then? I’m not able to agree or disagree on that one but I agree about the rest. A&M could be top 5 with us if they weren’t certified angus grade prime choice grass fed morons.

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17 minutes ago, troph said:

Well isn’t Florida fucking it up then? I’m not able to agree or disagree on that one but I agree about the rest. A&M could be top 5 with us if they weren’t certified angus grade prime choice grass fed morons.

 

giphy.gif

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2 hours ago, troph said:

Number of titles, winning tradition, 

 

 

I dont buy that as a reason to pick bama over Texas. What does the number of titles bama has won have to do with whatever new coach goes there, nothing. Winning tradiotion? Ok I guess but then Michigan would be destination #1.

I'm sure I'm biased but I can see as a top player this past decade why they would want to go there but as a coach replacing Saban, I don't see that destination any more desirable then Texas. Past titles and winning tradition doesnt help you on the field, just ask the yankees

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