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Posted
4 hours ago, Captainant said:

Hey know what will be really fun? When the Strait of Hormuz is closed or made unsafe to transit

Yeah, but higher oil prices will be good for people in Texas.  Well, some of them.

Posted
8 hours ago, Captainant said:

Hey know what will be really fun? When the Strait of Hormuz is closed or made unsafe to transit

I wonder how China, world’s largest importer of oil, nearly half of which comes through the straits, will react to that?

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Posted

The U.S. lost its “spies on the ground capability” many many years ago. It was due primarily to our country’s inability to keep a secret (spies kept getting uncovered), too many traitors sharing information, the lack of trusted people who are educated in other cultures and can speak the language, and most importantly by far the need to shift massive amounts of budget funds into SigInt. I doubt the Country ever gets the capability back. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Has China ever sent any type of military force out into the world?

No - which is why this notion that they could attack, invade, and occupy Taiwan is problematic on so many levels.  

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Posted
2 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Has China ever sent any type of military force out into the world?

I suppose it kind of depends on how far you go back, but in short, yes, but not very frequently. Invasion of Vietnam in 1979 was the last time.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

I suppose it kind of depends on how far you go back, but in short, yes, but not very frequently. Invasion of Vietnam in 1979 was the last time.

Didn't last very long.  They occupied a few cities, but the outnumbered Vietnamese fought things to a standstill.  No naval or air power was used.  China's aggression in Vietnam and in Korea was limited to large amounts of infantry thrown into the meat-grinder.  What China has shown no capability to do is combined military operations.  I'm sure they train on it, but they have no history of efficacy.  

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Posted
Just now, BabaYaga said:

Didn't last very long.  They occupied a few cities, but the outnumbered Vietnamese fought things to a standstill.  No naval or air power was used.  China's aggression in Vietnam and in Korea was limited to large amounts of infantry thrown into the meat-grinder.  What China has shown no capability to do is combined military operations.  I'm sure they train on it, but they have no history of efficacy.  

The military historian Edward Luttwak has made this point many times - “the Han don’t fight” as he says it.  Fair enough, but they seem to be building up their entire military with the purpose of taking Taiwan, an island that is very close to them and very far from us. With the PLA having more than 2 million people and their shipbuilding far outstripping every other country on earth, at some point quantity becomes a quality of its own. 
 

Hope we don’t ever have to find out. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Duane Moore said:

The military historian Edward Luttwak has made this point many times - “the Han don’t fight” as he says it.  Fair enough, but they seem to be building up their entire military with the purpose of taking Taiwan, an island that is very close to them and very far from us. With the PLA having more than 2 million people and their shipbuilding far outstripping every other country on earth, at some point quantity becomes a quality of its own. 
 

Hope we don’t ever have to find out. 

For the longest time Russia had the most ships.  They were shit ships, but they had more of them.  Further, China doesn't have the "right" ships to take Taiwan.  Taiwan is over a 100 miles away and the straight between them is supposedly very treacherous water.  They don't have a way to transport enough troops, get them over the barrier reefs, and into the handful of ports that can sustain such numbers.  They don't really have any amphibious capability that can make that 100+ mile straight intact - all the while Taiwanese defenses have been prepping for them for decades.  Then if they do, Taiwan just blows up the prize - the chip plants that need to stay intact to support global demand.  

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Posted
6 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

For the longest time Russia had the most ships.  They were shit ships, but they had more of them.  Further, China doesn't have the "right" ships to take Taiwan.  Taiwan is over a 100 miles away and the straight between them is supposedly very treacherous water.  They don't have a way to transport enough troops, get them over the barrier reefs, and into the handful of ports that can sustain such numbers.  They don't really have any amphibious capability that can make that 100+ mile straight intact - all the while Taiwanese defenses have been prepping for them for decades.  Then if they do, Taiwan just blows up the prize - the chip plants that need to stay intact to support global demand.  

Uhhhhhhhbout that, they don't seem to be planning for taking ports 

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news/2025/01/china-suddenly-building-fleet-of-special-barges-suitable-for-taiwan-landings/

copyImage.webp.66234d3d6b2489b851e318541af32c67.webp

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Posted
38 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The U.S. lost its “spies on the ground capability” many many years ago. It was due primarily to our country’s inability to keep a secret (spies kept getting uncovered), too many traitors sharing information, the lack of trusted people who are educated in other cultures and can speak the language, and most importantly by far the need to shift massive amounts of budget funds into SigInt. I doubt the Country ever gets the capability back. 

I've been with the company for twenty-four years. I was posted in Greece for fifteen. I've advised and armed the Hellenic Army. I've neutralized champions of communism. I've spent the past three years... learning —Finnish! Which would come in handy here in Virginia, and I'm never ever sick at sea. So I wanna know why... I'm not gonna be your Helsinki station chief.

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I've been with the company for twenty-four years. I was posted in Greece for fifteen. I've advised and armed the Hellenic Army. I've neutralized champions of communism. I've spent the past three years... learning —Finnish! Which would come in handy here in Virginia, and I'm never ever sick at sea. So I wanna know why... I'm not gonna be your Helsinki station chief.

You're coarse

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Posted
39 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

The military historian Edward Luttwak has made this point many times - “the Han don’t fight” as he says it.  Fair enough, but they seem to be building up their entire military with the purpose of taking Taiwan, an island that is very close to them and very far from us. With the PLA having more than 2 million people and their shipbuilding far outstripping every other country on earth, at some point quantity becomes a quality of its own. 
 

Hope we don’t ever have to find out. 

And I hope Kyo & Deiko don’t either….

 

IMG_9061.jpeg

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Posted
1 hour ago, Duane Moore said:

Does crossing the Yalu River into North Korea count as “into the world?”

And their short war vs. Vietnam. 

But I don't think you can compare those PLA's to this PLA. Modern PLA has never fought and their systems are unproven. 

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Kharg Island is Iran's main export terminal.  Iran/China really want to FAFO, that island is an easy, easy target. 

Then the entirety of the ME OG would send as much money as they felt needed to achieve goals they felt needed achieving to partners they felt capable of achieving it.

Iran/China could succeed but... China might see a pretty big increase in oil cost, Iran would absolutely cease to exist under current leadership and Russia wouldn't get any help from them as they're a little busy plus Russia is a really shitty partner. China is crazy, but they aren't stupid. Don't bite a hand that feeds you.

Edited by BurntEyes
Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

The U.S. lost its “spies on the ground capability” many many years ago. It was due primarily to our country’s inability to keep a secret (spies kept getting uncovered), too many traitors sharing information, the lack of trusted people who are educated in other cultures and can speak the language, and most importantly by far the need to shift massive amounts of budget funds into SigInt. I doubt the Country ever gets the capability back. 

And our reliance on Tech. That was a main one. You can gather all the messages in the world, but ya still gotta analyze them. 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

And our reliance on Tech. That was a main one. You can gather all the messages in the world, but ya still gotta analyze them. 

Time to reinvest in old fashioned humint

e4c36b85-cbc8-496f-b3e3-a76093ce5e49_tex

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Posted
1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

The U.S. lost its “spies on the ground capability” many many years ago. It was due primarily to our country’s inability to keep a secret (spies kept getting uncovered), too many traitors sharing information, the lack of trusted people who are educated in other cultures and can speak the language, and most importantly by far the need to shift massive amounts of budget funds into SigInt. I doubt the Country ever gets the capability back. 

I bet Surly has some informants among us.  Lotsa degens here, devoid of any ethics.

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Posted
6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, but higher oil prices will be good for people in Texas.  Well, some of them.

Once we learn how to make drilling pipe domestically out of nonmetal substances that don’t require massive tariffs, it’s drill baby drill time!

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Posted
30 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

Once we learn how to make drilling pipe domestically out of nonmetal substances that don’t require massive tariffs, it’s drill baby drill time!

Huh?

Also, it makes very little sense to drill baby drill except in the Haynesville for gas. Drilling oil wells makes zero sense and won’t until we hit $100 - if service costs are reasonable. 

Posted

Iran says no nuclear talks under fire, UN atomic watchdog urges maximum restraint | Reuters

Quote

DUBAI/JERUSALEM, June 20 (Reuters) - Iran said on Friday it would not discuss the future of its nuclear programme while under attack by Israel, as Europe tried to coax Tehran back into negotiations and the United States considers whether to get involved in the conflict.

Quote

He spoke a day after an Israeli military official said it had been "a mistake" for a military spokesperson to have said Israel had struck Bushehr, Iran's only nuclear power plant. He said he could neither confirm nor deny that Russian-built Bushehr, located on the Gulf coast, had been hit.

I really hope it was actually a mistake and they didn't bomb Bushehr. There is no reason to hit that plant.

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Posted
36 minutes ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Cliffs? It’s behind a paywall. 

Free link: https://archive.is/Hsgl7 

China’s bet on Iranian oil and Middle East influence turns sour

President Xi is likely to double down on energy independence drive as Strait of Hormuz risks rise

Spoiler

Edward White in Shanghai

Published9 minutes ago

Israel’s attacks on Iran threaten to cut China off from critical oil trading partners, highlighting its need for greater energy independence and disrupting Beijing’s hopes for a bigger role in the region. 

For years, China has used its relationship with Iran to expand its influence in the Middle East, while making cheap Iranian crude, and Gulf supplies more broadly, a bedrock of the energy mix for the world’s biggest buyer of oil.

Chinese President Xi Jinping said this week that all parties to the conflict between Israel and Iran should work “as soon as possible to prevent further escalation of tensions”. China has said the US should not interfere with its “normal trade” with Iran and has opposed US-led sanctions.

“Of course, China is worried [by the latest attacks],” said Gedaliah Afterman, an expert on China and the Middle East at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations in Israel. 

“If this situation continues to escalate, then they lose quite a bit, both in terms of their energy security and Iran as a strategic card that China holds.”

Since US-led sanctions on Iran’s nuclear programme were stepped up in late 2018, Beijing and Tehran have strengthened ties.

Beijing has become Tehran’s most important economic lifeline, buying the vast majority of Iranian oil shipments and supplying the country with electronics, vehicles and machinery, and nuclear power equipment. 

Last year, Iranian oil accounted for as much as 15 per cent of the crude shipped to the world’s second-biggest economy. Overall, China last year imported about 11.1mn barrels of oil a day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.

Chinese purchases of Iranian crude edged higher through most of 2023 and 2024 but started to ease late last year as the threat of new US sanctions increased, according to data from cargo tracking research group Kpler and Bernstein.

Iran exported 2.4mn barrels of crude a day in September 2024, with China accounting for 1.6mn barrels. By April, Iranian shipments had fallen to 2.1mn barrels a day, of which China accounted for 740,000 barrels. Malaysia is also an important exporter to China as cargoes shipped from Iran are relabelled or transferred to avoid sanctions, analysts said.

Analysts from Fitch Ratings this week said that, “even in the unlikely event that all Iranian exports are lost”, they could be replaced by spare capacity from Opec-plus producers.

Other, more severe, energy disruptions could emerge. The war, which is at risk of spilling over into a broader regional conflict, has already sparked threats from Iran that it could block the Strait of Hormuz.

Hundreds of billions of dollars in oil and gas are shipped through the waterway to China from nearby Gulf States each year, including Saudi Arabia, China’s biggest supplier of crude outside Russia.

A view of a ship on fire in the area of reported collision between two oil tankers near the Strait of Hormuz © European Union/Copernicus Sentinel-2/Reuters

China does not officially publish the volumes of its strategic petroleum reserves. But Michal Meidan, head of China research at the Oxford Institute of Energy Studies, estimates that across all storage types there is around 90-100 days of cover in the event that flows into the country are restricted.

Beyond a growing reliance on Saudi oil, S&P Global analysts have noted that more than 25 per cent of China’s liquefied natural gas imports last year came from Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. While China holds 15 LNG supply contracts with these two Gulf states, importers could be forced to purchase from the spot market at higher prices, S&P analysts said.

For China, the Israel-Iran crisis war comes amid a tectonic shift in the country’s energy mix. The country has for decades been the world’s biggest oil user. Under Xi, China is racing to boost its energy independence, a transition that ultimately requires a massive increase in renewable energy and the electrification of the country’s transport and manufacturing base.

A boom in solar and wind has taken renewables’ share of electricity power plant capacity to 56 per cent last year, up from around one-third a decade ago.

The “key takeaway” for Xi’s administration from the crisis, according to Neil Beveridge, head of Asia-Pacific research at Bernstein, will be to double down on its self-sufficiency drive.

“If it wasn’t happening fast enough before, it will be happening even faster now,” he said.

Storage facilities for petrochemical resources and products in Longkou in east China’s Shandong province © Tang Ke/Future Publishing/Getty Images

Analysts said China might benefit in the short term as Washington’s attention is more focused on the Middle East, rather than tensions with Beijing.

However, longer term a weakened Iran threatens to undermine China’s diplomatic influence in the region and potentially disrupts its desire to portray itself, at least domestically, as a credible mediator in global conflicts.

In 2021, Beijing signed a 25-year co-operation programme with Tehran. Iran also joined the China-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in 2023, part of China’s efforts to position itself as a responsible power and offer developing economies an alternative to US-led global institutions.

In 2023, Beijing touted its role mediating a Saudi-Iran deal and released a 12-point peace proposal for the Russia-Ukraine war.

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Fuel and fury: energy becomes a Middle East battlefield

Despite these moves, Beijing appears likely to remain on the sidelines in the Iran-Israel conflict, as was the case with the fall last year of ally Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, highlighting the limits of China’s foreign policy influence.

Jingdong Yuan, director of the China and Asia security programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, said that while China rhetorically supports countries “seen as receiving unfair treatment or coercion from the west”, in reality Beijing’s approach to regional conflicts was “always cautious”.

Beijing will be concerned about the impact on other allies in the region, such as Saudi Arabia. “The demise or the collapse of the Iranian system or the Iranian power as we knew it is not good news for China,” said Yun Sun, an expert on Chinese foreign policy with the Stimson Center, a US think-tank. “That indirectly means that American influence has expanded.”

Additional reporting by Wenjie Ding in Beijing

 

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Posted

The interesting question is how much could China ramp up its own domestic oil production. They buy 2/3s of Iran's total exports, but that only accounts for 15% of their total crude imports. Considering their significant oil deposits, you'd think they could cover that loss domestically if they absolutely had to, but it would take time of course.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Does China produce any domestic oil?

I'm sure they do, but they are spinning up a dozen or so coal plants weekly - cheaper to import oil than produce domestically.  

Posted

China produces ~4 million barrels per day, but their demand is much higher. Their largest field, Daqing, was discovered in the 1959 and they continue to operate it to maximize production without major concerns about economics as it is a strategic necessity. 

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Posted
11 minutes ago, ABZ said:

China produces ~4 million barrels per day, but their demand is much higher. Their largest field, Daqing, was discovered in the 1959 and they continue to operate it to maximize production without major concerns about economics as it is a strategic necessity. 

As a point of reference, Texas produces over 5 million barrels per day. 

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Posted
31 minutes ago, ABZ said:

China produces ~4 million barrels per day, but their demand is much higher. Their largest field, Daqing, was discovered in the 1959 and they continue to operate it to maximize production without major concerns about economics as it is a strategic necessity. 

Zero chance China can replace Iranian crude with domestic production. Probably ever. 

Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

No - which is why this notion that they could attack, invade, and occupy Taiwan is problematic on so many levels.  

There is the military logistical and capabilities reality, which is problematic. Potentially as big an issue is the hatred between the two. They make speak different dialects of the same language but culturally they are vastly different. This isn't a recent divide either. It's not China/Japan level hate, but it's real.

But... that's a different thread.

Edited by BurntEyes
Posted
1 hour ago, ABZ said:

China produces ~4 million barrels per day, but their demand is much higher. Their largest field, Daqing, was discovered in the 1959 and they continue to operate it to maximize production without major concerns about economics as it is a strategic necessity. 

Hence Beijing’s ongoing claims and “redevelopment” of the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea over the strenuous objections of Manila. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

I see a massive multi-multi-million-dollar engineering feat that could be defeated by a missile or drone.  That looks so vulnerable.

Yup.  If they attempted the crossing it would be a massacre.  A literal bloodbath.  

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