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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

In a debate, Vance would say that he's completely in favor of a woman getting away from a violent husband. But you have to remember that those like Vance only believe this IF there can be a criminal conviction of the violent act(s). Without that, they believe the marriage should stay intact for the children.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Perhaps we should start caring, seeing as the two presidential candidates are 80 year-old men. One who occasionally appears to be sundowning and the other who brags about passing neurologic exams and subsists on McDonalds and was almost assassinated

fify

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Posted
17 minutes ago, C-Man said:


So this is inaccurate?

d0609defc7efa5e8aaba2df97972814b.jpg

15102 is Bethel Park. It’s like if someone from Pflugerville donated and it got listed as Austin but with their Pflugerville zip code. Google “Pittsburgh 15102” and Bethel Park shows up. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, mchookem said:

so... has this been verified? i mean i know maga won't believe it regardless, but im just wondering if this has been out in the ethos for a while now and confirmed legit for normal people. or has Ron been hanging onto it waiting for the right time? sonder how he got it... is the 'friend' a pol, or a never-trumper, would be great if s/he could confirm it...

i know, wishful thinking.  

i sent Joe some $$ last night after his remarks, but if the dems have literally already given up, fuck them. 

DWKw3sqUQAA3xkQ.jpg

I believe they are confirmed as they came from one of his law school classmates McLaurin who is a Democrat in Georgia.

 

https://ohiocapitaljournal.com/2022/04/19/americas-hitler-old-j-d-vance-message-turns-up-in-heated-senate-primary/

 

 

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Posted
23 minutes ago, MrBig said:

I know there are other people named Thomas Crooks who live in Pittsburgh, but the $15 donation was from 15102 which is Bethel Park where the shooter is from. The donation being on Biden’s Inauguration Day leads me to believe it was done as a bet or something related to the inauguration since he registered as a Republican later on. 

This would make a lot of sense. 

12 minutes ago, C-Man said:


So this is inaccurate?

d0609defc7efa5e8aaba2df97972814b.jpg

It is accurate, but not inconsistent with it being the shooter. You can actually pull more information from the image, including the address. 

image.png.3f9b07772eec213823b30cec00bd7221.png

2506 Milford drive is owned by Mathew and Mary Crooks, and has been since 1998. Given that the shooter's name was Thomas Matthew Crooks, I feel pretty confident he is (was) their son. 

https://www2.alleghenycounty.us/RealEstate/Sales.aspx?ParcelID=0318S00020000000&SearchType=2&CurrRow=0&SearchName=&SearchStreet=milford&SearchNum=2506&SearchMuni=&SearchParcel=&pin=0318S00020000000

 

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Posted
1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

Mainly the debate. I don’t think they’re fired up. 

I love this hard push to call the mental patient a Republican when he was 20 years old, so his affiliation is meaningless. But it’s clear yall are trying really hard to obfuscate he is the furthest thing from Trump a white male can get, and very well could’ve been progressive. 

The 'republican' thing might be a red herring.  Here's a few other republicans that are sad that lunatic didn't kill Trump (Joe Scarborough, Ana Navarro, Rick Wilson, among others).  The republican label is being used to defend against him being identified as a dem/liberal and radicalized by their rhetoric. 

One thing I haven't seen discussed although Hugo kinda mentioned it, is the environment that created this attempted assassin.  Social worker and a psychologist for parents.  I'd pull on that thread if I was an investigator.

Vance is a Thiel acolyte.  Trump's rationale there I'm guessing is to help pierce the blue wall because it does nothing else to expand the electorate.  But it will bring Thiel $ in.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

This would make a lot of sense. 

It is accurate, but not inconsistent with it being the shooter. You can actually pull more information from the image, including the address. 

image.png.3f9b07772eec213823b30cec00bd7221.png

2506 Milford drive is owned by Mathew and Mary Crooks, and has been since 1998. Given that the shooter's name was Thomas Matthew Crooks, I feel pretty confident he is (was) their son. 

https://www2.alleghenycounty.us/RealEstate/Sales.aspx?ParcelID=0318S00020000000&SearchType=2&CurrRow=0&SearchName=&SearchStreet=milford&SearchNum=2506&SearchMuni=&SearchParcel=&pin=0318S00020000000

 

Quote

Crooks’ father, Matthew Crooks, has declined to comment to the media, saying he was waiting to speak to law enforcement. Records show Matthew Crooks and his wife, Mary, are both licensed counselors in Pennsylvania. They also have a 22-year-old daughter.

https://www.ajc.com/news/nation-world/what-we-know-about-the-gunman-who-opened-fire-at-trump-rally/KEQHSEVSS5A55NYDYQPQHDX52A/

Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

They’re abnormal observations, extremely rare, and outliers. I don’t think they’re unexpected and never have been. 

Something being rare as in having a lower frequency of appearance doesn't make it abnormal. If I had a 1,000 sided die, the chance of any one side coming up could be call rare. But observation of that occurrence wouldn't be unexpected or outside what we would predict. If the results aren't unexpected, then they aren't really outliers. An outlier in the US would be no shootings for a year or perhaps many shootings concentrated in a small area. Those observations would be unexpected and suggest a major chance or an error in the data. A young white male engaging in a shooting would not. 

Edited by Dahobbs
Posted
30 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In a debate, Vance would say that he's completely in favor of a woman getting away from a violent husband. But you have to remember that those like Vance only believe this IF there can be a criminal conviction of the violent act(s). Without that, they believe the marriage should stay intact for the children.

 

Free ad material 

Posted
33 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I think Rex is unfamiliar with the 4chan / Incel wing of MAGA. Or maybe he just refers to them as "outliers"

Rex played this same game in a discussion about some of the beliefs of rural Texas evangelicals a couple of months ago, in spite of what another guy and I (both of us grew up in Southern Baptist churches in West Texas) were telling him. 

He's either a) lying, b) has his head in the sand, or c) has no clue.

Posted
3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Not gonna read nonsense. It’s an outlier. 

You're such a child. You don't even know what that word means. 

Posted
40 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

articulate, young, midwest, high brand recognition.  vance is trump's best choice.

Isn't he from Appalachia?

Posted
1 minute ago, bolverk said:

Rex played this same game in a discussion about some of the beliefs of rural Texas evangelicals a couple of months ago, in spite of what another guy and I (both of us grew up in Southern Baptist churches in West Texas) were telling him. 

He's either a) lying, b) has his head in the sand, or c) has no clue.

He’s lying

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Posted
1 minute ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

I wish we lived in a country where those quotes matter.

But we live in post-MAGA America. Politics is entertainment and politicians are celebrities. What they think or say doesn't really matter anymore.

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Posted

I’m curious if they even did any vetting of Vance ?

Is Ohio in play and Trump needed to make this move to pick up the state ?

what's going to come out once the deep dive into his background begins ?  I’ll guess closet homo 

Posted
2 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

I wish we lived in a country where those quotes matter.

But we live in post-MAGA America. Politics is entertainment and politicians are celebrities. What they think or say doesn't really matter anymore.

Yep. Vince McMahon (Trump) just made Vance's character a face, so years of actions and quotes as a heel no longer matter. He's good now.

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Al_4_ISU said:

Isn't he from Appalachia?

He grew up in Middletown (midway between Cincinnati and Dayton). Despite that, the area has strong connections to West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky. I only know because I'm adopted and have since met my birthmother and some of her family who grew up there. The whole clan, along with thousands of other poor hillbillies, moved en masse from working in the coal mines of Appalachia to that area to work in the steel mills. My 93yo birthmom's mom has some interesting stories to tell about her Depression-era childhood and lugging buckets of water to their shanty up in a holler before they made the move.

Posted
4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

No I did not. I told you what UMC members believed and that your Israel protectionist horseshit theories as it applies to those evangelicals is not at all accurate. I was surprised to learn what I did, but don’t believe that’s a primary reason we support Israel.  

I'm not going to get into it again with you, but you're absolutely wrong when you say that evangelical beliefs in the Book of Revelations and prophecies about the Apocolypse have nothing to do with their support for Israel. I never said that was the primary reason we, collectively as a nation, generally support them.

Posted
2 minutes ago, bolverk said:

He grew up in Middletown (midway between Cincinnati and Dayton). Despite that, the area has strong connections to West Virginia and Eastern Kentucky. I only know because I'm adopted and have since met my birthmother and some of her family who grew up there. The whole clan, along with thousands of other poor hillbillies, moved en masse from working in the coal mines of Appalachia to that area to work in the steel mills. My 93yo birthmom's mom has some interesting stories to tell about her Depression-era childhood and lugging buckets of water to their shanty up in a holler before they made the move.

I guess I'll read Hillbilly Elegy now, just to see what exactly this guys has in experiences or what informs this Vice President's beliefs. I think it should be more or less an honest fascimile, given it was published before he was famous and/or a politician, right? By all accounts this guy was a reasonable guy (e.g. despised Trump, intelligent by way of Yale/law and not being born into it) but sold out for selfish ambition?

Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I know that if I were to draw a chart, the number of would-be US Presidential / presidential candidate assassins in the last 43 years is exactly one. That meets the criteria for an outlier using any fucking definition you want. You cannot stand when people argue with you, and routinely die on hills, but you’re wasting my time. Just give up. 

Let's take your hypothetical chart. There are have been four successful presidential assassinations over the ~250 years the US has been around. So, had he been successful, one every 43 years or so sounds pretty consistent with our observed data. Of course, there have also been numerous foiled attempts, including ones against H.W., Clinton, G.W., Obama, and Biden. These are rare events, but I'm guessing if you plot them by year, 2024 doesn't look anything like an outlier. 

Anyway, I just question the use of the term because it suggests an unexpected result. You agree this is not unexpected, so it sounds like we generally agree. 

Edited by Dahobbs
Posted

JD Vance gives moderates the cover they need to pull the lever for trump… even though he’s a craven opportunist who’s using Maga and the dummies to rapidly ascend to power.

Trump surviving an assassination further helps and makes his base even more energized.

The only real hope here is that Biden steps down.

Between the document case being thrown out, the assassination attempt, and now this, I can see no path for Joe to win. He has to realize that a 5% change with a wild card democrat is better than his -10% chance of winning.

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Posted
Just now, Vegas64 said:

I guess I'll read Hillbilly Elegy now, just to see what exactly this guys has in experiences or what informs this Vice President's beliefs. I think it should be more or less an honest fascimile, given it was published before he was famous and/or a politician, right? By all accounts this guy was a reasonable guy (e.g. despised Trump, intelligent by way of Yale/law and not being born into it) but sold out for selfish ambition?

I didn't read the book either (saw the fictionalized movie later). When Hillbilly Elegy was published, there was a long essay by him (I think) or a long excerpt in the Atlantic (I think) that discussed the struggles of lower-middle-class whites in small, rapidly deindustrializing towns that did a fairly convincing job of discussing the social ills (political beliefs) associated with economic decay. Initially, it seemed to fit much of the MAGA crowd and why they'd support a big city New Yorker, but his general thesis pretty much falls apart today for other sections of the GQP base. It kind of reads like David Brooks's Bobos in Paradise but for "white trash" in some of its sociological observations. 

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Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Pancho said:

MSNBC just showed a snipped of Biden’s interview with Lester Holt

 

Sweet Jesus. He does way better with crowds and energy.

 

Frustrated Ryan Gosling GIF

A huge consequence of the shooting is that the conversation and pressure for him to step aside are effectively over (until his next major fuck up). 

Fuckity fuck.

Edited by aggie08
Posted
17 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I know that if I were to draw a chart, the number of would-be US Presidential / presidential candidate assassins in the last 43 years is exactly one. That meets the criteria for an outlier using any fucking definition you want.

Wait . . . I thought you two were slap-fighting over people wanting to kill "liberals", not POTUS or POTUS candidates?

Posted
12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

MSNBC just showed a snipped of Biden’s interview with Lester Holt

 

Sweet Jesus. He does way better with crowds and energy.

 

Frustrated Ryan Gosling GIF

 

 

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Zonahorn said:

Good luck with that Trump.

I’m not going to defend JD Vance, but two things:

1) this is pretty clearly not what Vance is saying, the gist of which is that the the sexual revolution led to an explosion of divorce that has not been good for working families or middle class children on either a cultural or economic level. His audience will understand it.

2) second, he’s right. And I am certainly no fan of JD Vance or suggesting that people should stay in violent marriages. 
 

Affluent white progressives, who generally have the privilege of not living in economically depressed places or personally impacted by losing elections will no doubt jump all over this, and it will be wasted effort because they don’t understand the lived reality of middle class life in America. 
 

This biggest mistake Democrats have made in the last 35 years is not explicitly pushing economic policies that make single  incomes viable for middle class families. 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

We do NOT generally agree except this was not unexpected. The Trump shooter, even if you go back to start with Andrew Jackson, was very much an outlier by any outlier definition. Stop arguing. 

Yes, I get that you disagree on the usage of the word. You have a different definition. That's fine. I'm saying we agree conceptually. It is ok. calm your ass down. 

Edited by Dahobbs
Posted
4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Yeah but you’re a moron, so…

I'm referring to your quote, so pardon me if my low intellect somehow allowed me to conflate two different discussions (which I don't think actually happened, but whatever):

Quote

I suppose but even then, there are not 1 million MAGA who’d be seeking to kill liberals.

 

Posted

I know none of this matters to voters. Maybe to a sliver of independents. Maybe. But this is just overtly signaling where we’re headed. And Trump can say this is from his Yale Law School VP. 

 

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I’m UMC. Technically, I’m evangelical. The Book of Revelations and apocalyptic forecasts are laughable. All of my peers are UMC, Presby, Baptist or non-denom Bible-based. I don’t know one who believes in this stuff, at least as it pertains to the application of their every day life. It is literally never cited in my peers’ universal support for Israel. So, if my anecdotes are not in line with the rest of the country, I’m blissful in my ignorance in how most Christians think. 

I will say, I don’t think like most Christians on a variety of topics, so just add this one to the fucking list. 

Then, we come to the same conclusion as last time. You're a rich guy from Highland Park who probably runs in rich guy circles (didn't you go to SMU?), and you're out of touch with what rural evangelicals (most of whom never went to college) believe about the Apocolypse. Again, I grew up in the First Baptist Church of my small West Texas hometown. Those people believe every single bit of it...passionately.

If you don't believe me, think of all the worst shit televangelist frauds spew. I can't tell you how many "the end of the world will be at 4pm on October 3rd" bullshit scares I had to endure growing up. And, yes, many of them also fantasize about killing Democrats, liberals, progressives, and so on.

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Posted
37 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

Wait...a VP who previously made demeaning comments about the Presidential candidate that picked him for the slot?

THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED IN US HISTORY!!!!!!! OUTRAGE!!!!!

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Posted
5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Then, we come to the same conclusion as last time. You're a rich guy from Highland Park who probably runs in rich guy circles (didn't you go to SMU?), and you're out of touch with what rural evangelicals (most of whom never went to college) believe about the Apocolypse. Again, I grew up in the First Baptist Church of my small West Texas hometown. Those people believe every single bit of it...passionately.

You are absolutely correct.

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Posted
13 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m not going to defend JD Vance, but two things:

1) this is pretty clearly not what Vance is saying, the gist of which is that the the sexual revolution led to an explosion of divorce that has not been good for working families or middle class children on either a cultural or economic level. His audience will understand it.

2) second, he’s right. And I am certainly no fan of JD Vance or suggesting that people should stay in violent marriages. 
 

Affluent white progressives, who generally have the privilege of not living in economically depressed places or personally impacted by losing elections will no doubt jump all over this, and it will be wasted effort because they don’t understand the lived reality of middle class life in America. 
 

This biggest mistake Democrats have made in the last 35 years is not explicitly pushing economic policies that make single  incomes viable for middle class families. 

His message may have been broadly about the casualness of quitting marriage. But he did specify violent marriages. Nobody put words in his mouth or is disingenuously interpreting his message. Suggesting women (or men) should stay in violent marriages for the sake of the kids strikes me as insane. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

You are absolutely correct.

As someone who grew up in Rolla, MO, on the edge of the Ozarks, you would know, too.

Posted
5 minutes ago, rage-a-holic said:

Wait...a VP who previously made demeaning comments about the Presidential candidate that picked him for the slot?

THIS HAS NEVER HAPPENED IN US HISTORY!!!!!!! OUTRAGE!!!!!

Yea I dunno if a lot of VP picks have referred to the top of their ticket as “Hitler”. 

same same 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

That was C-Man, you conflating ballsack

Jesus Christ.  Look at what you wrote on post #10735.  Taken at face value, it appeared that you were arguing about millions of MAGAts killing liberals.  You were apparently (tangentially) refuting an earlier @C-Man quote, but holy shit maybe be less of insufferable prick.

Ha.  Like that will ever happen.  I'm sure you're a blast at your Methodist campouts.

Posted

Whatever shitty things Vance said about Trump in the past doesn't matter. As some have noted already, Vance can say he was wrong and now knows the real Trump and he's awesome blah blah blah.  It's a softball question when eventually presented to him. 

Posted
4 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

I’m not rich and didnt go to fucking SMU. Ugh. 

I know many East Texas, Midland and Beaumont evangelicals. None of them think this way. 

Knowing people in casual polite company when you visit is not the same as growing up steeped in the local culture and knowing what is said behind closed doors or while sitting in the pews.

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