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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted

So far we have:

  • Harris +4-6 in reputable polls
  • Harris +3 in two different PA polls that are reputable
  • Harris +3 in two different WI polls (with RFK on the ballot), including one from Trump's own pollster
  • Harris +5 in MI

Wisconsin starts sending out ballots tomorrow
Minnesota and Virginia start in-person EV Friday
Mail-in voting begins in Michigan on Sept 26

We are also less than 30 days out from in-person early voting starting in Arizona and Georgia

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Posted

Harris winning Michigan and Pennsylvania means Trump has to win all 4 of Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina to get to 270.

Interesting to me that there aren’t too many plausible scenarios where Nevada is the difference maker.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

The fact at the most basic and simply disproven facts are false in no way dissuades them from thinking they are on the right team

You'd think anyone could simply recognize that whatever side Neo Nazis are on, is the wrong side.  But, here we are.

 

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Harris winning Michigan and Pennsylvania means Trump has to win all 4 of Arizona, Georgia, Wisconsin, and North Carolina to get to 270.

Interesting to me that there aren’t too many plausible scenarios where Nevada is the difference maker.

It's only 6 EVs, so it's not even close to a tipping point state. 

The only time it's a diff maker is if Trump wins GA, AZ and PA and Harris wins NC, MI and WI.  Whoever wins NV wins (either Trump 271 or Harris 273). 

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Posted

I don’t think I’ve ever seen a gaslighting machine quite like Vance. Just heard a clip of him blaming the media for “harassing the citizens of Springfield.”

I’d probably rather listen to Trump speak at this point. At least sometimes I laugh.

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Posted
1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

One feels slightly more likely than the other. I’ll leave it up to the big brains in here to figure out which…

IMG_6110.png

Black turnout isn't dropping with a black candidate at the top of the ticket.

C'mon Dave.

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Posted

That is a fun tool they created.

But black voters are more energized with Harris as the nominee, so obviously, it won't be the second lol

Posted
5 minutes ago, wood said:

Sigh, nsiap.  Seriously, fuck Brett Favre. What a POS.

Mr. Fav-ruh, didn't you endorse Trump in 2020? So it's fine for YOU to endorse a candidate, but other celebs, i.e. pop stars, shouldn't do it.  Do I have that right? Would you also say it's a bad thing for undecided voters to be swayed by their favorite quarterback's endorsement?

No? 

Interesting. 

Keep showing your true self to the world, Brett. It's damn good entertainment watching you step in shit over and over and over. Just continue showing your ass like you always do, but hey, no pics, ok?

Let these fuckers not endorse Trump, let them all keep quiet and shut their fucking mouths on who should vote for who and the rest will keep endorsing Kamala, win win.

PS Trump billboards literally say "Endorsed by Elon Musk!" what a sad sad sad state of affairs.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It's only 6 EVs, so it's not even close to a tipping point state. 

The only time it's a diff maker is if Trump wins GA, AZ and PA and Harris wins NC, MI and WI.  Whoever wins NV wins (either Trump 271 or Harris 273). 

Yeah if Harris wins NC but loses PA…that seems implausible to me.

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Posted
12 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

One feels slightly more likely than the other. I’ll leave it up to the big brains in here to figure out which…

IMG_6110.png

Why would black turnout need to decrease for his second scenario to be true?  Wouldn’t Trump benefit more if he got 12% of the black vote, and blacks turned out at 69%?  Or higher?

Posted
3 hours ago, Thatguy said:

I get what you are trying to say but what I mean is the average Trumper in a blue state has been accustomed to working inside a more liberally run infrastructure than a Texan. Everything from worker laws and rights to what happens at your kid's school is just different. A Trumper Texan would walk in there swinging his far right dick around and get told to fuck all the way off even by fellow Trumpers. West coasters, no matter their political affiliations, are just more attuned to liberal systems.  It's the same way here. We have this idea that Austin is liberal. Let the people that say that go to where my wife was born, Berkeley and see what REAL liberal is.

Yeah, I occasionally run into the Trumper Texans up here who think they're going to tell us how it's gonna be.  Doesn't typically end well for them.

And yeah, while Austin is liberal for Texas, it's still in Texas.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, linux said:

Let these fuckers not endorse Trump, let them all keep quiet and shut their fucking mouths on who should vote for who and the rest will keep endorsing Kamala, win win.

PS Trump billboards literally say "Endorsed by Elon Musk!" what a sad sad sad state of affairs.

Yep. I have no problem with anyone endorsing or not endorsing any candidate, and like Mahomes, I can get along with people who disagree with me politically. I operate on the belief that the vast majority of us in the middle want similar outcomes and mostly disagree on the best routes to those outcomes ... and it's the fringe extremists that are fucking things up.

Favre, though. Just such a fucking pos hypocrite. Basically he's fine with anyone endorsing Trump, fine with people not endorsing a candidate at all, and has a problem with non-QB celebs endorsing candidates. Such a bizarre, self-unaware take.

Edited by wood
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Posted
3 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

One thing the Trump/maga movement has shown me is 40% of Americans (and probably 70% of white Americans) are absolutely mean, ignorant, selfish pieces of shit. 

I didn't think that before 2016.  It's really depressing to think that but it's true. 

One thing it's shown me is that I cannot wait for the Boomers to die off.  Yes, there are good ones out there, but as a whole they are just a selfish, shitty group of people who need to go.

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Posted
6 minutes ago, Welch said:

Why would black turnout need to decrease for his second scenario to be true?  Wouldn’t Trump benefit more if he got 12% of the black vote, and blacks turned out at 69%?  Or higher?

Um, you may want to give that a little more thought. 

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Welch said:

Why would black turnout need to decrease for his second scenario to be true?  Wouldn’t Trump benefit more if he got 12% of the black vote, and blacks turned out at 69%?  Or higher?

Because of math. Kamala would still be getting more net votes for each black voter. 

Posted
2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I think the thing that confuses me most about Trump supporters is that a lot of them know he lies all the time, and yet somehow they think the things he says will really happen or are true. Anyone with the brain the size of a walnut understands that you can’t trust anything a liar says about anything, so you can’t trust him to do what you want him to do. It’s crazy. 

My MIL is like this.  She justifies it by saying they all lie all the time, so his lying is somehow justified because everyone does it.

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Posted
2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Surprised Elon hasn't terminated his account by now.

I'll probably get Little Elon's banhammer soon.

Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Surprised Elon hasn't terminated his account by now.

Are you kidding?  Filipowski would never show up in the algorithm for Elon’s account. 

Edited by A-Tex Devil
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Posted
1 hour ago, G650 said:

Because roughly 1%-3% of mail goes missing. We mail hundred of items a week, a shitload of it never gets where it's going. Voting in person is much safer.

LOL, no.  All states should do it like CO does it.  Ballots sent out ~4 weeks prior to the election (along with a blue book that explains each ballot issue and the pros/cons of each).  You can send them back at any time.  And if you don't want to mail it, there are secure dropboxes everywhere (public libraries, DMV offices, etc).  There are probably 5 dropboxes within a 3 mile radius of my house.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Very bigly good news that SCOWI re-approved drop boxes then.  Best part of voting in CO - ballot shows up at my mailbox, check off all my options and then I'd drop it in a drop box on my way to work. 

I just posted the same thing.  People who have never voted here don't understand how much better it is.

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Posted
1 hour ago, linux said:

Again verify that your ballot made it, there are state tools to track your ballot, if it got lost then vote in person.

That's one other item about voting in CO I forgot until you mentioned this.  I get a text when my ballot is received and another one when it's approved to be counted.

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

LOL, no.  All states should do it like CO does it.  Ballots sent out ~4 weeks prior to the election (along with a blue book that explains each ballot issue and the pros/cons of each).  You can send them back at any time.  And if you don't want to mail it, there are secure dropboxes everywhere (public libraries, DMV offices, etc).  There are probably 5 dropboxes within a 3 mile radius of my house.  

Same here in Washington.  And not just for federal elections - even the shitty little local ones get mailed ballots and explainers.  

And I was asked if I wanted to register to vote when I went in to get my DL (which was also ridiculously quick and easy).

Edited by Hiphopopotamos
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Posted
4 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Same here in Washington.  And not just for federal elections - even the shitty little local ones get mailed ballots and explainers.  

And I was asked if I wanted to register to vote when I went in to get my DL (which was also ridiculously quick and easy).

Yep.  Same, same.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I just posted the same thing.  People who have never voted here don't understand how much better it is.

My dude, I am like 4 weeks from being back in Denver for good.  Everything picked up so fast from "oh maybe November" to "ummm, 4 weeks?" 

I think I can still register in time to vote in CO before the election - I think the deadline is like, 10/26?

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Posted (edited)

1/2 a point rate cut! 

Another 1/2 promised before the end of the year (next meeting is after the election)

Edited by Js1
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Posted
10 minutes ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

Same here in Washington.  And not just for federal elections - even the shitty little local ones get mailed ballots and explainers.  

And I was asked if I wanted to register to vote when I went in to get my DL (which was also ridiculously quick and easy).

When I moved from Bellevue to North Seattle (rental to rental), I was automatically re-registered for the new location. It is staggering how different it is when your government wants you to vote.  

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Posted
8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

My dude, I am like 4 weeks from being back in Denver for good.  Everything picked up so fast from "oh maybe November" to "ummm, 4 weeks?" 

I think I can still register in time to vote in CO before the election - I think the deadline is like, 10/26?

You can register on November 5th for in person voting, although it may be more complicated if you don't have a state ID.  (Not suggesting you test that theory.) 

link

Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

You’ll get 25 and you’ll like it

Shocked Vince Mcmahon GIF

 

Man, I'm going to need to hydrate and nap after today's news. 

Edited by Bateshorn
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