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Lake Travis 2024: Countdown To Zero


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16 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I for one support the idea of a deeper lake that never gets to the water level it might have otherwise achieved.  I bet all those marinas and waterfront homeowners would be thrilled with permanent rocks and random grass for their lakefront view & use.

This is great, except for 80% of the population that lives on the creek arms of the lake.  Dredging the lake deeper and lowering the full level just stripped away a shit-ton of waterfront properties that are still technically in a flood plain so they can't be developed.  And deeper does not equal wider, so you've compressed the surface area of the lake which means less room for surf boats and larger motor yachts to generate giant wakes.  And not to mention you've basically wiped out the upstream lake usage between Marble Falls dam and the usable Travis basin.

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A lot of Wilco gets its water from lake Georgetown, which is supplemented with water pumped in from stillhouse hollow.

Wonder if we could devise a larger system with non-force field lakes such as Whitney, which is currently 100% full. Also Belton is close and 75% full. Obviously this only works if they receive rain when we don’t.

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On 4/14/2024 at 11:20 PM, Larry T. Spider said:

In this part of the world droughts end in floods. The lake will eventually be full again no matter what this summer or next brings. It’s just a matter of the prolonged pain until it happens. Sadly, most of the Austin population is completely oblivious to how this could play out in the very near future.

This.  Lake Travis goes up and down--that's what it does.  https://www.golaketravis.com/waterlevel/

We can look at the data in many ways depending on your outlook and agenda.  The very current trend doesn't look good.

Looking at the 10 highest levels ever, 8 of the highest levels have occurred since December 1991.  Looking at the lowest 10 levels ever, 6 of the lowest levels have occurred in that time.  If you look at 2010 to the present, two of the highest levels ever have occurred in that time, while three of the lowest levels ever have occurred since 2010.  

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12 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

image.thumb.png.602e669f930592de0379c31f697aa2cd.png

Medina lake history. I absolutely love that part of Texas. We used to go out there riding the Three Sisters.

I bought Thunder Creek Ranch in 2002, NW of Utopia and west of Medina.  A series of tropical storms had dumped ~ 17" of rain over a few weeks that summer and it looked like a tropical paradise. Thunder Creek was the appropriate name for the area, then.

I've learned It usually takes a hurricane/tropical storm weather event for Thunder Creek to Thunder, and sadly, those seem to be fewer occasions than when I roamed the 40 acres. Muck like the levels of Lake Medina.

Texas has been "hit" by 46 hurricanes/tropical storms since 2000, but only 5 have made landfall between Corpus Christi and Brownsville; Generally, anything east and west of that corridor doesn't impact central Texas, including Utopia and Austin.

August 9, 2002 – Tropical Storm Bertha makes landfall as a tropical depression near Kingsville, 
August 16, 2007 – Tropical Storm Erin makes landfall near Lamar
July 23, 2008 – Hurricane Dolly makes landfall at South Padre Island 
September 8, 2016 – The remnants of Hurricane Newton bring heavy rains to parts of western Texas
Late August 2017 – Hurricane Harvey makes landfall on San José Island near Rockport

The occasional rain shower keeps things green, but it takes a series of wet years to keep the springs recharged, and the surface water is dependent on consistent localized rainfall, or a named storm.

There is no "normal" weather pattern, just the length of time between the transitions of flooding and drought.

It is amazing how different the weather is in the country v. Austin, ~ 113 miles as the crow flies.  Big difference between the radiant heat sink generated by all the concrete, asphalt, cars and the millions of 98 degree meat popsicles around town and the open country with zero impervious cover. 

The people are different too. Nobody complains about the water levels while they are sitting in their swimming pools watching the sprinklers watering the grass. 

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45 minutes ago, PTINS said:

Texas has been "hit" by 46 hurricanes/tropical storms since 2000, but only 5 have made landfall between Corpus Christi and Brownsville; Generally, anything east and west of that corridor doesn't impact central Texas, including Utopia and Austin.

Maybe it depends on the wording, but Hermine made landfall in NE Mexico and wreaked havoc in central Texas.  My home in Austin suffered $20K of damage due to rain-caused flooding.

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3 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

A lot of Wilco gets its water from lake Georgetown, which is supplemented with water pumped in from stillhouse hollow.

Wonder if we could devise a larger system with non-force field lakes such as Whitney, which is currently 100% full. Also Belton is close and 75% full. Obviously this only works if they receive rain when we don’t.

i already answered this question

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55 minutes ago, PTINS said:

I bought Thunder Creek Ranch in 2002, NW of Utopia and west of Medina.  A series of tropical storms had dumped ~ 17" of rain over a few weeks that summer and it looked like a tropical paradise. Thunder Creek was the appropriate name for the area, then.

 

Hi Neighbor, our ranch is out that way too. We've had property off 337 since 90's and have definitely noticed a decrease in rain fall out there within the past 10 years. We do rain collection for flushing toilets and taking showers and I'm expecting to have to truck it in over the summer if things do not change. 

It's pretty sad when the family text chain blows up over the .07 registered in the rain gauge this morning. 

 

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38 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Maybe it depends on the wording, but Hermine made landfall in NE Mexico and wreaked havoc in central Texas.  My home in Austin suffered $20K of damage due to rain-caused flooding.

I did a quick wiki search for my comments. I know we get the remnants from East Texas, Northern Mexico and Pacific Coast storms.

I don't wish misery or harm on anyone, but I like the Thunder in my Creek.

0309(1).thumb.jpg.1d1105b9af0fa2fe48da241e555f4eb5.jpg 

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21 hours ago, Hagbard Celine said:

95% of austinites require 2.3 seconds to realize the traffic light has turned green

only south florida surpasses austin driver stupidity

in other news, i can solve the water needs of the entire state for 100 years with 1 Billion dollars and the following technologies:

1. solar-driven Archimedes screws

2. downhill 1% grade aqueducts

07a11eab-7c8a-456a-8936-e79768cd73aa_tex

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11 hours ago, HouTex said:

This.  Lake Travis goes up and down--that's what it does.  https://www.golaketravis.com/waterlevel/

We can look at the data in many ways depending on your outlook and agenda.  The very current trend doesn't look good.

Looking at the 10 highest levels ever, 8 of the highest levels have occurred since December 1991.  Looking at the lowest 10 levels ever, 6 of the lowest levels have occurred in that time.  If you look at 2010 to the present, two of the highest levels ever have occurred in that time, while three of the lowest levels ever have occurred since 2010.  

Yes, but what has the population utilizing the water from Lake Travis been in those years?  There's a breaking point coming soon.

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3 hours ago, Larry T. Spider said:

When I started this thread, Travis was 38.1% full. Despite being in the “rainy” season, we are now down to 37.1%.

Good chance for some rain tonight then it looks dry for the next week. Let’s hope it falls in the right places.

I still think all the low lakes and weak river flows are caused by illegal dams being built on private property that we can’t see. We’ve had droughts before but the lake levels are dropping at a rate inconsistent with the amount of rain and development in the surrounding areas. It’s bullshit and needs to be stopped.

https://www.kxan.com/texas-water/illegal-dam-on-james-river-torn-down-while-another-dam-pops-up-in-mason-county/

MASON COUNTY, Texas (KXAN) — An illegal dam in the Texas Hill Country is being demolished following reports from KXAN. The dam, constructed along the James River in Mason County, was built in 2023.

Investigations from the Texas Parks and Wildlife Department (TPWD) and the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality (TCEQ) found the dam was constructed without permits.

Meanwhile, in western Mason County, a second dam has been located along Leon Creek. This dam was also built without permits, according to TPWD.

“We’re sure glad that that damn dam is gone,” said Susan Keeling, a landowner who lives further down the James River. She and her sister, Kathy Zesch-Bradley, told KXAN about the dam after noticing the river had slowed to trickle.

“During dry seasons, ranchers in the hill country need that water in their rivers for their wildlife and their livestock,” Keeling said. The James River feeds into the Llano River, which provides water to Lake Travis, Austin’s water supply.

In October, KXAN crews visited the dam and witnessed it holding back several feet of water, while the other side of the river remained completely dry.

Restoring the James River

In May 2023, a 404-acre plot of land was purchased by an entity called ‘Neusch Mason, LLC.’ Mason County Appraisal District records link the LLC to Bill Neusch, CEO of Gibraltar. That company has built and installed more than 150 miles of the Texas/Mexico border wall, according to its website.

In September, TPWD informed Neusch Mason, LLC that they had violated the law and must submit a restoration plan. That plan was due November 20, but TPWD provided an extension until December 20.

On January 17, 2024 TPWD told Neusch Mason, LLC in a letter that “any structure left below the gradient boundary of the James River must meet the requirements set out in Chapter 86” of the Texas Administrative Code. 

Additionally, the dam must be “removed entirely” from the low water channel, ensuring the James River’s flow returns to normal.

Neusch Mason, LLC submitted a restoration plan on March 20, 2024, which was then approved by TPWD. 

According to the restoration plan, 310 feet of the 400-foot wide dam had to be removed from the river. Two ramps could be constructed to provide access across the river.

Work was approved on March 22 and began on April 1. The project is required to be complete by April 30, contingent on weather, according to TPWD.

“I certainly think that justice has prevailed here because such a travesty to hurt many, just for the pleasure of one person,” Keeling said.

KXAN reached out to Bill Neusch, but his attorney declined to comment.

Another illegal dam discovered

While water now flows on the James River, ten miles away at Leon Creek in Mason County, another illegal dam built in a remote area is restricting access to water.

“In September, my husband went to check the cattle and went down to where the creek goes into the Llano river. And the creek was only a trickle,” said Kerry Hormann, a landowner in Mason County. 

Hofmann’s family has owned land along Leon Creek for more than a century. She said this is the first time it has stopped flowing. Neighbors living further upstream told Hofmann they had discovered a dam had appeared along the creek.

Hofmann said it was the first time they heard anything about the dam. They were not notified that the landowner was building a dam.

It was completely built “sometime in the summer” by the time Hofmann discovered its construction.

Both TCEQ and TPWD told KXAN they are investigating this dam. This dam, it is important to note, is NOT on land owned by Neusch Mason, LLC.

TPWD told KXAN that the dam “does not have a sand and gravel permit issued by the agency.” They are investigating the “disturbance or taking of marl, sand, gravel, shell and mudshell.” 

Issues related to water impoundment fall under the TCEQ, who declined to provide further details about their ongoing investigation.

Hofmann said all they want is the restoration of the creek’s flow. She said that since they discovered the dam, some water has returned to the creek, but its not what is typical this time of year.

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It's tough when outflows are, what, something like 200cfs through Mansfield on average, where there's virtually NO upstream releases.  The 1-2 cfs creek flows and dried up Perd is really knee-capping Travis, on top of the bigger and deeper straws being installed every year.

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1. Illegal dams and who knows what else

2. Population growing

3. Rotten luck with where and how much rain falls

4. Would not be surprised if Abbott is rubberstamping industries that are using up a ton of water

5. Probably a lot of illegal pumping like those a-holes in San Marcos (see 1 above)

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My mom lives on Inks. People in the backside of her subdivision far from the water are pulling out of the lake illegally to run their irrigation systems and such. Many calls to LCRA and they just say they can't do anything about it. 

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13 minutes ago, texasdago said:

4. Would not be surprised if Abbott is rubberstamping industries that are using up a ton of water

A significant fraction of data centers consume considerable water to cool their servers.  Whoring our state out to crypto mining operations doesn't just affect the power grid.

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If that number is correct, Samsung consumes 2,438,050,700,000 gallons per year, or 7,482,104 acre ft. / year.  For reference, Lake Travis at full is 1.1M acre ft.  So Samsung consumes nearly 7 FULL Lake Travises annually?!

You have an extra 3 zeros on the end

~325,000 gallons to acre foot

So around 7500 acre feet.

Still a lot of water.
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First time in I don’t know how long we’ve had a south to north moving storm just bullseye on the perd. 4 inches baby and still increasing, talk about satisfied!! 
 

 

IMG_4670.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, 1978horn said:


I’m dumb, delete user

No, something is off in those numbers.  The statewide water demand in 2020 was 7.7 million acre-feet.  https://www.twdb.texas.gov/waterplanning/swp/2022/docs/04-SWP22_Future-Population.pdf  Samsung was not using 7.5 million acre-feet, virtually all of the water demand of Texas.  ...Too preoccupied with enjoying the heavy rainfall right now in 78756 to reconcile the math...

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1 hour ago, PvilleStang said:

Look at the units in the first tweet.  It's that number x 1000, or at least that's how I read it.

That's what it says.  But comparing it to data for other years, it's wrong.  Samsung historically uses around 7 THOUSAND acre feet per year, not 7 million.  So, the numbers given are the actual numbers (don't multiply by 1000).

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13 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's what it says.  But comparing it to data for other years, it's wrong.  Samsung historically uses around 7 THOUSAND acre feet per year, not 7 million.  So, the numbers given are the actual numbers (don't multiply by 1000).

What if I want to?

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1 hour ago, troph said:

First time in I don’t know how long we’ve had a south to north moving storm just bullseye on the perd. 4 inches baby and still increasing, talk about satisfied!! 
 

 

IMG_4670.jpeg

South Austin's mom scoffs at 4 inches

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9 hours ago, troph said:

First time in I don’t know how long we’ve had a south to north moving storm just bullseye on the perd. 4 inches baby and still increasing, talk about satisfied!! 
 

 

IMG_4670.jpeg

Water almost up to the docks? 

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Do they just sell water to the highest bidder because they can? Even if it threatens the water supply for people?

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/04/12/texas-corpus-christi-water-shortage-hydrogen-clean-energy/

Water scarcity and clean energy collide in South Texas

A high-tech chemical company has purchased the last available water in the Nueces River to make hydrogen and ammonia for export.

Chemical company Avina Clean Hydrogen Inc. has purchased the last available water supply from the Nueces River of South Texas, raising concerns of regional scarcity as reservoirs dwindle and drought persists.

Avina’s Nueces Green Ammonia plant plans to separate the hydrogen from water, convert it to ammonia and export it as a high-tech fuel alternative to oil and gas. It’s one of several such projects currently proposed in Texas, driven by federal subsidies. Governments and scientists say this technology plays an important role in the transition away from fossil fuels.

But officials in the nearby city of Corpus Christi have warned that the project could threaten water supply for more than 600,000 regional customers.

“Increased water drawn solely from the Nueces River system could dramatically increase the potential for scarcity,” wrote Corpus Christi’s director of intergovernmental relations, Ryan Skrobarczyk, in a March 1 memo to state lawmakers, first reported by the Corpus Christi Caller-Times. “A new large-volume user of the Nueces River will require extensive and exact monitoring to avoid increased drought restrictions.”

Over the last decade, Corpus Christi stretched its water supply to its limits, selling vast volumes of Nueces River water to a string of major industrial users, hoping to meet the new demand with several large desalination plants.

But those plants still haven’t materialized. Meanwhile, the new industrial customers have ramped up operations while a multi-year drought bore down. Local residents have been under water-use restrictions for more than 600 days as reservoirs have fallen below one-third full.

Although Corpus Christi holds rights to the vast majority of Nueces River water, it doesn’t hold them all, as it was recently reminded. The only other significant right belongs to the Nueces County Water Improvement and Control District #3, which serves the towns of Calallen and Robstown. It has rights from 1909 that were originally intended to flood crop fields and haven’t been used in decades.

That’s where Avina found the means to purchase 5.5 million gallons of treated Nueces River water per day—enough for all 38,000 residents of Calallen and Robstown to each flush their toilets 90 times daily—for the next 25 years.

“Do I want them there? No. But I can’t be biased,” said Marcos Alaniz, general manager of the Nueces County Water Control and Improvement District #3 outside of Corpus Christi. “I don’t have a right to tell somebody that I cannot feed them water.”

He cited rules from the Texas Public Utility Commission that listed five reasons why water providers may refuse service. Compromising the regional supply wasn’t among them.

“It’s just the fact that we’re pulling more out of the reservoirs than we’re putting in. But that’s not for me to say,” Alaniz said.

A spokesperson for Avina in New Jersey, Karen White, said the company “takes seriously the water/energy nexus and is engineering the most water conscious plant design, opting for dry cooling, reuse and reduction wherever possible.”

In a March 6 email to Corpus Christi City Council, City Manager Peter Zanoni warned the Avina project could increase water prices to all city water users.

“The loss of millions of gallons of water a day will have an impact on our water supplies. To backfill that loss will potentially result in rate impacts to all [Corpus Christi Water] customers,” Zanoni wrote.

The city of Corpus Christi and its water department declined to answer questions.

The hydrogen boom 

Avina is one of at least 30 hydrogen and ammonia projects currently proposed in Texas, according to data from the Environmental Integrity Project, following federal legislation that laid out financial incentives for fossil fuel alternatives, aimed at reducing emissions of greenhouse gasses.

“In the future, hydrogen will be used to replace diesel,” said Joe Powell, director of the Energy Transition Institute at the University of Houston and a former chief scientist at Shell. “I see it as a good jobs transition opportunity for this [Houston] region to be securing its place in the future.”

Most of those projects produce hydrogen the old-fashioned way, from natural gas, but incorporate new measures to capture the high volume of carbon emissions and inject them underground for disposal instead of releasing them into the air.

Ten of the projects use a method called electrolysisthat doesn’t directly involve oil or gas. Instead, it uses a large volume of water and a tremendous amount of electricity to separate the hydrogen from water molecules. When powered by clean energy, the process releases no carbon emissions.

The technology isn’t new, but it wasn’t considered economically feasible until the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 laid out steep federal subsidies for hydrogen projects.

One such project in North Texas plans to build 1.4 gigawatts of wind and solar power generation and pump 500,000 gallons of groundwater per day to produce 200,000 kilograms of hydrogen for fuel. Another project on Matagorda Bay will use water to produce hydrogen for so-called “eFuels.” Avina also plans a second electrolysis plant in South Texas to fuel furnaces for steel production.

But there’s a hangup. Hydrogen gas is nearly impossible to transport. It needs to be liquified at about -500 Fahrenheit then held at that temperature.

So instead, scientists devised an alternative: convert the hydrogen to ammonia (a stable liquid made of hydrogen and nitrogen), ship it overseas then re-convert to hydrogen. It’s an inefficient process. Up to 40% of the original energy input is lost in the production, conversion and re-conversion of the hydrogen, said Hugh Daigle, an associate professor of petroleum engineering at the University of Texas who has studied the hydrogen economy. But, it produces a carbonless fuel that can power heavy vehicles without harmful emissions.

“To make one molecule of H2 it takes 1 molecule of water,” Daigle said.

If developed at scale, he said, “that is going to take a lot of water.”

Nueces County ammonia plant 

The Avina spokesperson, White, said the company selected its Nueces County location based on its proximity to renewable energy resources (wind farms cover millions of acres in South Texas) and its relay access to the Port of Corpus Christi.

Federal tax incentives require electrolysis projects to run on renewable energy, with extra benefits if the energy projects are new. White said Avina’s Nueces ammonia plant will be powered by 3.5 gigawatts of new renewable power projects, but those contracts haven’t been finalized yet.

The news of another water-intensive industrial project in the region surprised Encarnacion Serna, a retired chemical engineer who spent his career in local refineries.

“They keep bringing in more and more industry and there is no water,” he said. “It's a horrible disaster just waiting to happen.”

Serna, 72, has nothing against the industrial sector. He raised his family while working in these plants, including five years at ExxonMobil, 15 years at Occidental Chemical and three years at Air Liquide.

But, he said, it’s gone too far. He listed the recent, major additions to the region’s waterside industrial sector: Cheniere LNG, Voestalpine steel, Chemours chemicals and a trio of massive new oil export terminals, among others. One new plastics plant by ExxonMobil and the Saudi Basic Industries Corp. has contracts to use up to 25 million gallons of treated water per day.

All this growth was supposed to be supported by the development of several new seawater desalination plants. But while the industrial customers are now operating, plans for the desalination plants have floundered, mired in years of delays.

“They spent millions of dollars pushing desalination and all the money went to lawyers, permitting and public relations,” Serna said. “The idiots sold water they didn’t have.”

Avina plans to produce 3.2 billion gallons of ammonia per year at the Nueces County plant, according to its application. Serna calculated how much hydrogen that would require, and how much water in turn, coming up with 9.5 million gallons per day—almost twice Avina’s contracted water supply.

Alaniz, manager of WCID #3, said Avina will put in groundwater wells to make up the difference. (The company did not respond to questions about its total planned water use.)

WCID #3’s 1909 water rights from the Nueces River allow for 10.5 million gallons per day. Originally, that water was meant for crop irrigation, but over time the farm fields turned into neighborhoods, which use much less water. Still, WCID #3 held onto its rights.

“This will be our first industrial customer,” Alaniz said. “Until you can figure out how we can get more water, it’s probably my last.”

 

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1 hour ago, MrBig said:

Do they just sell water to the highest bidder because they can? Even if it threatens the water supply for people?

https://www.texastribune.org/2024/04/12/texas-corpus-christi-water-shortage-hydrogen-clean-energy/

Water scarcity and clean energy collide in South Texas

Sometimes you have to turn large portions of the planet into desiccated, crumbling husks incapable of supporting life in order to create alternative fuels to save it.

Duh.

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1 hour ago, MrBig said:

A spokesperson for Avina in New Jersey, Karen White, said the company “takes seriously the water/energy nexus and is engineering the most water conscious plant design, opting for dry cooling, reuse and reduction wherever possible.”

1 hour ago, MrBig said:

In a March 6 email to Corpus Christi City Council, City Manager Peter Zanoni warned the Avina project could increase water prices to all city water users.  

“The loss of millions of gallons of water a day will have an impact on our water supplies. To backfill that loss will potentially result in rate impacts to all [Corpus Christi Water] customers,” Zanoni wrote.

People in Corpus Christi having their water supply reduced, while paying more for the water they get, because of some company out of New Jersey.

Happy Simon Cowell GIF by America's Got Talent

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