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Posted
3 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Industry consensus is for the largest draw ever tomorrow when reported at 9:30 AM CT tomorrow. 275 Bcf. That should provide some support. 

3.90 NG1 is a big line in the sand area for me, April settled a bit above that and maybe gets tested pre-storage release tomorrow. As you said, record storage release expected but its rear view mirror stuff. What’s important is the degree to which salt storage is able to replenish itself next few weeks, with close to all time production highs and no appreciable HDDs save for some cold over the weekend. If you are concerned with shoulder weakness, perhaps you should be, April October spread has come in quite readily and is due for a breather.

Also, bloodbath across the pond as TTF summer/winter spread has collapsed from insane backwardation to almost flat. Be careful out there.

Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

$3.50-$6.95 thru Mar’26. The $8.63 ceiling never really seemed doable. If we are trading at $8 or $9 in Jan/Feb, I’ll be ecstatic. I don’t think that’ll happen so quickly but I also never saw August ‘22 coming. 

I'm not a finance guy by any means so I'd appreciate a brief tutorial if you've got a second. The $3.50-$6.95 range you're quoting is a collar, correct? Basically you're protected from nat gas price dropping below $3.50, but lose out on any upside if the price breaches $6.95? Would appreciate an example in that scenario of what exactly happens to you if the price hits $2.50 vs. if price hits $8.50.

Edited by Storm the Field
Posted (edited)

Drill Baby Drill! Oh no, not there...

Quote
 

Trump Cancels Chevron’s Venezuela License, Boosting Supply Concerns

Oil prices received a boost following U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to cancel Chevron’s license to operate in Venezuela. The sudden policy reversal undoes a license granted by former President Joe Biden over two years ago. Chevron, which exports about 240,000 barrels per day (bpd) of Venezuelan crude—accounting for over 25% of the country’s total oil output—will now be barred from continuing these exports.

This policy change has reignited supply concerns in an already sensitive market, contributing to the unwinding of short positions established during the recent sell-off. The cancellation of the Venezuela license comes as traders assess the potential for increased demand following reports of potential purchases for the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR).

So how much of a loss is this to Chevron, like 20 million in revenue per day? Sure seems like a huge hit out of nowhere. 

Edited by Dutchrudder
Posted
1 hour ago, Dutchrudder said:

Drill Baby Drill! Oh no, not there...

So how much of a loss is this to Chevron, like 20 million in revenue per day? Sure seems like a huge hit out of nowhere. 

 

this is the country you invade / take over.'it wouldn't take much 

Posted
1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

A well inebriated surly army 

 

1 minute ago, UTPhil2006 said:

A well inebriated surly army 

2+2 lead therapy to maduro and his cabinet, plus others 

any chavez hold overs 

 

you'd be a national hero 

Posted
5 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

2+2 lead therapy to maduro and his cabinet, plus others 

any chavez hold overs 

 

you'd be a national hero 

I think we have a house painter around here somewhere 

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Posted

All the light oil the US is producing is worth a lot less if we can't blend it with heavy crude from Canada and Venezuela.  Sooo... tariff Canada's heavy crude, cancel license for Venezuelan crude.  Good strategy.

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Posted
I have several buddies that either retired from or work for BP.  They are all at a loss as to why BP lost its way.  All their stock holdings are in the toilet. 

I mean it isn’t rocket science. bp had two of the worst o&g disasters in history within a 5 year period, which tanked public confidence in the company and cemented the stock below competitors. They were never going to out-Exxon Exxon at this point, so the CEO took a big swing on renewables to try and make bp be market leaders in that area - which in hindsight was a swing and a miss. The Ukraine war was a double whammy as bp was forced to sell stake in Rosneft (thus losing a revenue stream that could help temper a slower transition) and the ensuing profits the other companies saw in traditional hydrocarbons slowed the energy transition to a crawl.

It’s self-inflicted, but there’s a world where the early 2020’s energy optimism isn’t interrupted by Putin and bp comes out smelling like roses.
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Posted
2 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

I’d prefer MAGA heat up the refiners/provide incentives for them to convert from heavy to light crude instead of pressuring the Saudis.

But… he wants instant results and here we are. 

 

motiva is 100+ years old. it would be quicker to just build one from scratch 

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  • 2 weeks later...
Posted
Quote

 

Energy executives have mostly heaped praise on President Donald Trump in public appearances, welcoming his removal of environmental restrictions on oil drilling and vows to open up more areas to exploration.

But in private, executives are clearly frustrated with the administration’s policies, and some are pulling back investment. Several executives expressed their feelings in blunt terms in a quarterly survey put out by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. 

"The administration’s chaos is a disaster for the commodity markets,” one wrote. “‘Drill, baby, drill’ is nothing short of a myth and populist rallying cry. Tariff policy is impossible for us to predict and doesn’t have a clear goal. We want more stability.”

The Fed survey responses, which are anonymous, were collected from 130 executives in oil and gas production and services who work in the Fed district, which includes Texas and sections of New Mexico and Louisiana.

“I have never felt more uncertainty about our business in my entire 40-plus-year career,” wrote another executive.

For the most part, the executives expressed concern about tariffs. Trump’s 25% tariffs on steel are causing costs to jump for oil producers who use a lot of it.

https://www.barrons.com/articles/texas-oil-survey-frustration-tariffs-1c16e994

Posted (edited)

anyone heard of Strategic Storage Partners, LLC ? 

peor are saying the DoE is giving them control of the strategic oil reserve. 

U.S. Government will be paying $1.4 billion or $280 million every year to have it managed. 

 

 

IMG_3667.jpeg

Edited by tx 3 putt
Posted
anyone heard of Strategic Storage Partners, LLC ? 
peor are saying the DoE is giving them control of the strategic oil reserve. 
U.S. Government will be paying $1.4 billion or $280 million every year to have it managed. 
 
 
IMG_3667.thumb.jpeg.3ba177a88471af6a36f8cbcf075b4be9.jpeg

1) Find out who is behind it. Because it’s a grift.
2) We weren’t paying $280 million per year just to manage the Reserve before. Total grift boondoggle.
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:


1) Find out who is behind it. Because it’s a grift.
2) We weren’t paying $280 million per year just to manage the Reserve before. Total grift boondoggle.

Yup, that was my first thought. According to some internet info:
Brian M. Taylor based in Parker CO. The business has an address of Frankton, CO. The company apparently creates storage units, like the kind that you put your leftover furniture and stuff in when your house is too full.  Others connected to it are Sarah Westfall and Donald Marcotte the founder, and that's it. 3 employees total that are publicly available via internet info.  Makes absolutely no sense. Chris Wright is from Denver, CO, so it may be some kickback to friends or family, but it needs to be investigated.  

Dunno how accurate this, but it seems likely:  https://www.facebook.com/SUGAR.RHI/videos/1188919929293391/

 

 

Edited by Dutchrudder
Posted
8 hours ago, billfromlaketravis said:

Fucking beat down today. No other way to spin it. OPEC production increase + tariffs. Fun times.

Plus weakness in the dollar. 

Posted

So how was the SPR managed before? I assume that it was a grift previously as well that has just been transferred to new grifters?

Posted
11 minutes ago, Hate said:

So how was the SPR managed before? I assume that it was a grift previously as well that has just been transferred to new grifters?

What a strange way to live. Anything before MUST have been a grift, so any new grifts happening now are okeydoke. 

Posted

 

This is what a quick search revealed. 

  • Management and Operating (M&O) Contractor:
    The DOE awards contracts to manage and operate the SPR facilities, and currently, Strategic Storage Partners LLC will take over the management and operation of the SPR facilities on June 15, 2025, according to a recent news article. 
     
  •  

 

Posted
11 minutes ago, Hate said:

That is not what I said at all but keep fucking that chicken.

No no you're right, I'm sure the 3 man outfit that runs self storage units in Colorado is a perfect steward of the SPR and it's massive set of underground storage tanks and pipelines in Texas and LA. I'm sure they'll maintain that critical strategic infrastructure well, definitely better than those grifters at Fluor Federal Petroleum Operations.

Since anything before the current administration MUST be a grift right?

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Posted

Jesus fucking Christ you are a beating. Not once have I said it was a smart move or a good move. It’s something I had never thought of before until this new company was awarded the contract. Do you think FFPO did this out of the goodness of their hearts? Or maybe they had some political connections when they were awarded the management contract whenever that was? I’ll assume that FFPO was doing a great job managing the SPR as I’ve never seen anything to the contrary. 

Posted
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

What a strange way to live. Anything before MUST have been a grift, so any new grifts happening now are okeydoke. 

Well, it was previously done by Fluor Federal Petroleum Services for a tad less money.  I suppose Fluor is as guilty of being a grifter as any big business, but you kind of tend to think they know what they're doing.  https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/04/the-strategic-petroleum-reserve

I think that SPP mentioned in that article is a self-storage outfit that is unrelated.  I see there is an SSP LLC formed in Delaware in June 2023 that is a more likely candidate, but not seeing any member/director information.

Posted
11 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

It needs to be scrutinized but Wright, though a blowhard, is smart. I’m happy to pay $280MM is a very small price to pay to keep SPR decisions out of Trump’s hands. Or Biden’s hands. And Wright was surely behind that, because Trump will inevitably look at SPR when oil inevitably goes up, and Wright now has cover from a third party when Trump inevitably approaches him on this. There are also structural integrity issues with SPR that this particular group may have specific expertise in addressing. 

I seriously doubt this management and operating contract gives decision making powers to Strategic Storage Partners. Come the fuck on man. The guy is wielding tariff powers that aren't granted in the constitution (among other things) but he's going to pay someone else $280MM to tell him when the SPR will release crude?

Accept Season 4 GIF by Billions

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Posted
Just now, Rex Kramer said:

What on earth are you even speaking about?  You might wanna stay on topic. And and Captain Dipshit veer off topic constantly in unyielding effort to bash Trump. 

In fairness, that takes no effort at all.  He's pretty much self-bashing.  Which works out well for me, as I'm pretty lazy.

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Posted
1 hour ago, Rex Kramer said:

It needs to be scrutinized but Wright, though a blowhard, is smart. I’m happy to pay $280MM is a very small price to pay to keep SPR decisions out of Trump’s hands. Or Biden’s hands. And Wright was surely behind that, because Trump will inevitably look at SPR when oil inevitably goes up, and Wright now has cover from a third party when Trump inevitably approaches him on this. There are also structural integrity issues with SPR that this particular group may have specific expertise in addressing. 

Does it not concern you as a taxpayer that the new DOE decided to send this out to a company that we can't even definitively locate on the Internet? That alone seems fishy to me, and this happening while many of the IGs were removed from their posts by this administration is just greasing the wheels on this bumbling rollercoaster full of grifters. I have my doubts about this one, but I also doubt everything this admin does due to their pattern of ineptitude.

I think the SPR is kind of important, and would like to know that it will be managed by someone who knows something about the industry, the market and has a background in it. A little more info than a website under construction is not too much to ask for when it's a billion dollar contract. I agree, if they did find a group capable of completing upgrades, purchasing oil at low prices, and maintaining it would be fantastic, but again, I don't have any evidence that this is the case. 

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Posted
1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, it was previously done by Fluor Federal Petroleum Services for a tad less money.  I suppose Fluor is as guilty of being a grifter as any big business, but you kind of tend to think they know what they're doing.  https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2025/04/the-strategic-petroleum-reserve

I think that SPP mentioned in that article is a self-storage outfit that is unrelated.  I see there is an SSP LLC formed in Delaware in June 2023 that is a more likely candidate, but not seeing any member/director information.

 

5 minutes ago, Dutchrudder said:

Does it not concern you as a taxpayer that the new DOE decided to send this out to a company that we can't even definitively locate on the Internet? That alone seems fishy to me, and this happening while many of the IGs were removed from their posts by this administration is just greasing the wheels on this bumbling rollercoaster full of grifters. I have my doubts about this one, but I also doubt everything this admin does due to their pattern of ineptitude.

I think the SPR is kind of important, and would like to know that it will be managed by someone who knows something about the industry, the market and has a background in it. A little more info than a website under construction is not too much to ask for when it's a billion dollar contract. I agree, if they did find a group capable of completing upgrades, purchasing oil at low prices, and maintaining it would be fantastic, but again, I don't have any evidence that this is the case. 

There are threads on reddit about this, and I'm leaning to TwiceHorn being correct. Supposedly the SSP LLC registered in Delaware has physical offices in LA: 

https://sam.gov/opp/502dc5b914254b2d86ebdc138f710a7f/view

image.png.f1c594ae2830f07f7cbca6f4a6211cfd.png

The parent company of SSP LLC is supposedly Aptim which is also located in Baton Rouge (https://www.aptim.com/services/resilience-and-infrastructure-solutions/oil-and-gas-infrastructure/) and history of government contracts (https://www.highergov.com/awardee/aptim-federal-services-llc-698193214/).

The storage folks in Colorado simply seem to share the same name. 

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Posted

The funny thing if the actual parent company of SSP LLC is Aptim, their social media presence is littered with "DEI bullshit". If Elon's minions at DOGE get a whiff of this, the contract will probably be clawed back, lulz. 

image.png.ba45014d7454e2639400f2c03be1ed19.png

 

And that link redirects to one without DEI in the URL, so they are probably scrubbing all their shit now. 

https://www.aptim.com/employee-engagement/

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Posted
9 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

 I feel we will hit $80-$90 before $50

Yeesh. I saw Boone say something very similar to this during a 2008 speech in Dallas. (although the swing was more like $200 - $50) Less than a 6 months later we were in the $30s.

Posted
2 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

This time?  Sure. But highly unlikely. I suspect we will go back up to mid to high 60s in short order. I feel we will hit $80-$90 before $50, but with Trump who the fuck knows. It’s just a matter of time before we literally cannot produce enough crude for the demand, and prices increase significantly. 

Thought we were going to $100 for the last three years now.

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Posted
50 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Can it go negative again?

 

question here, when it dipped under $10 the last time, isn't that time to make a massive strategic reserve purchase ?

Posted
7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

question here, when it dipped under $10 the last time, isn't that time to make a massive strategic reserve purchase ?

Great news, we should soon have the opportunity to find out!

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Posted
4 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

For a 6-month period inside your last 3 year metric, we averaged over $105. That’s a blip, now. K. 

I never said we were going to $100 in any certain time period and have repeatedly said Trump will keep oil prices low as long as he could.

What I have said on repeat is that fundamentally, oil and gas are poised to skyrocket. 

You read what you want to, I suppose. 

Oil prices broke $100 on Feb 25 and went under $100 for the last time on July 1. That's roughly 11% of the 3-year timeline; i.e. a fucking blip.

Posted
On 4/4/2025 at 12:16 PM, Rex Kramer said:

Ok, I caveated the fuck out of that post, Mr. Fake News. 

The fundamentals don’t support crude being below $75. And that will only be more glaring as time goes on, unless Trump policies totally restrict global commerce. But you cannot discount the wild card that is this guy. He’s single-handedly fucked over the world and caused crude to be where it is. He’s a pretty powerful wild card. You can’t take my prediction out of context. 

What fundamentals suggest crude should be above $75?

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