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Posted

Full team notes from IT

Spoiler

Banged-Up Texas Secondary

Junior cornerback Manny Muhammad was downgraded from probable to questionable on Thursday night’s injury report. We don’t want to share the specific injury with OU right around the corner, but IT does not expect him to play this weekend. The injury isn’t serious and he should be good to go for October 11.

In his place will be sophomore Kobe Black, who also appeared on the injury report. Black is right on time in his development to play a lot this season, and this will be a good test for him. Senior Jaylon Guilbeau will start opposite him.

Here’s where it gets a little interesting: IT expects Warren Roberson, Kade Phillips, and Graceson Littleton to all receive reps at corner. Normally a Star, Littleton played corner against Sam Houston State, and that might be his position next season.

Mixing and Matching at Star

As mentioned often this week, Florida’s offense frequently deploys two tight ends. Texas has the ability to match that personnel with Jelani McDonald at Star, but given the respect for Florida’s offensive line and running back Jadan Baugh, we expect Texas to use its Base package a considerable amount. In Base, the Star comes off and the Sam linebacker comes on. That’s a long way of saying Littleton getting reps at corner makes sense, because the role of Star is expected to be reduced in this contest.

Still, Littleton will likely get the start at Star, but we should also see McDonald, Wardell Mack, and maybe even Michael Taaffe there.

Notes at Safety

Taaffe and McDonald can do just about anything asked of a safety and they pace that room. Expect to see a good amount of Derek Williams this week, and probably increasingly more going forward. It sounds like the staff has a few tricks up their sleeve.

I’m not sure we’ll see any other safeties in this game. Duane Akina doesn’t like to rotate as much as Blake Gideon. Jordon Johnson-Rubell and Xavier Filsaime are coming along, however.

Jonah Williams’ progress is going smoothly. He knows the playbook—he’d pass a classroom test with flying colors—but he’s still working on applying that knowledge to the field. There’s a certain processing speed required.

Williams is viewed fondly enough that he’s being integrated more and more into special teams. No, not as a returner.

Big Opportunity for the Linebackers

If the D-line does its job, this could be a monster game for Anthony Hill, Liona Lefau, Ty’Anthony Smith, and Trey Moore. Moore can play all three linebacker spots and will be the starting Sam. He has a big role this week. Smith can also play Sam.

With Hill already on the national stage, he may soon be joined by Lefau. This game sets up well for him and his run-blitzing ability. The linebackers had a good week.

Swamp Things

Not much was heard about the Edges this week other than they’ve been challenged to get after Lagway. Lance Jackson and Zina Umeozulu continue to stack good weeks of practice.

There should be plenty of opportunities to get into the backfield. The game plan includes some aggressive elements that could aid this group.

D-Tackle Room Gets January Back

Alex January has looked good in his return, but a source wanted to remind me that I should have believed him more about Hero Kanu. Yeah, yeah, yeah—but he’s right. “Hero’s balling.”

In a week spent challenging the defense, the D-line—including the Edges—was told they must reset the line of scrimmage if Texas is going to win. Ian mentioned it in one of his pieces this week, but Cole Brevard needs to have a good game, and it sounds like that was emphasized heavily.

From the outside, it sounds like the defense remains in an excellent mental place and has a strong game plan. We already know the talent and depth are there

 

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Posted
38 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

Just did a bit of a deep dive into the forecast for Saturday afternoon in Gainesville. Thunderstorms are definitely a concern, but they should be somewhat scattered and moving through. So while there's a chance for a lightning delay, I doubt it would last hours. And although it may rain some during the game, it is very unlikely to be raining for a majority of the game. Things may start to clear out some toward evening.

Regarding winds, the overall setup between two pressure systems favors strong winds. But some of the latest high resolution models are indicating more modest winds of 10-15 mph. So who knows. 

In summary, fuck ou.

Did you find a good source for a deeper dive and if so mind sharing to follow updates?  Flying down tomorrow night.  We got solid free tix through contact but if weather looks likely to be a shitshow with  lightning delays might pony up for club seats to ride it out inside.

Posted
8 minutes ago, SimkinsMan said:

Yeah, me. I’m a meteorologist. 

Even better.  Appreciate it and let us know if any meaningful updates if you don't mind!

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Posted
3 hours ago, Js1 said:

We will be lucky to get a first down 

lol you’re playing but most of America expects Florida to win this game 

Posted
2 hours ago, D3zii said:

lol you’re playing but most of America expects Florida to win this game 

Road teams with mentally fragile QBs don't historically have a good road record in the SEC.

Posted
4 hours ago, D3zii said:

lol you’re playing but most of America expects Florida to win this game 

You should log off the internet. Isn’t the betting line like -5.5? Most of America thinks Napier is getting fired 

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Posted
36 minutes ago, Pig Bellmont said:

You should log off the internet. Isn’t the betting line like -5.5? Most of America thinks Napier is getting fired 

Yeah that's just not true. The country has seen Florida embarrass itself on national TV three times already this season in back-to-back-to-back weeks.

Posted
5 hours ago, D3zii said:

lol you’re playing but most of America expects Florida to win this game 

You’re confusing “thinks they will win” with “wants them to win”

 

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Posted
2 hours ago, Longboard Horn said:

Even if Muhammad doesn't play, we have Littleton. Talk is he can play CB depending on who's out. If so, Wardell Mack will play safety.

*star

We have a lot of dudes all over the secondary who can play. I'm not sure Black and Littleton at corner is a step down from Manny and Guilbeau. 

Posted
34 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Is there somewhere that I can bet on a Texas -20 money line? I would do that.

I think you mean -20 on the spread. Most sportsbooks have alternate spreads. Fan Duel has Texas -19.5 for +440.

 

Posted
20 minutes ago, Red Five said:

*star

We have a lot of dudes all over the secondary who can play. I'm not sure Black and Littleton at corner is a step down from Manny and Guilbeau. 

fixed it

Posted
9 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

fixed it

Kinda sorta seems like we have two true freshmen who are already pushing Guilbeau at corner. To say nothing of Kobe Black, and MM when healthy, obviously. Guilbeau needs to be back at star pretty soon IMO.

Posted
4 hours ago, JFKFC said:

Road teams with mentally fragile QBs don't historically have a good road record in the SEC.

 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

You’re confusing “thinks they will win” with “wants them to win”

 

 

2 hours ago, texifornia said:

Yeah that's just not true. The country has seen Florida embarrass itself on national TV three times already this season in back-to-back-to-back weeks.

 

2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

You should log off the internet. Isn’t the betting line like -5.5? Most of America thinks Napier is getting fired 

 

I’m just pointing out what most socials and podcasts outside the Texas bubble are saying. They believe this will be Napier’s last stand, and honestly, a lot of them already don’t think we’re that good to begin with.

 

What I don’t get is how they act like Lagway is the only QB capable of breaking out of a slump, but Arch can’t improve or turn things around. That logic  makes what @Js1 said make a lot of sense. Ppl praying on Texas downfall. 

Posted
Just now, D3zii said:

What I don’t get is how they act like Lagway is the only QB capable of breaking out of a slump, but Arch can’t improve or turn things around.

Uh.....

Our own "fans" on Surly seem to agree on this.  Every CFB team in Surly's eyes is going to get better over the course of the season, but Texas and Arch will only get worse.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Pig Bellmont said:

You should log off the internet. Isn’t the betting line like -5.5? Most of America thinks Napier is getting fired 

Damn why I gotta log off? I was just making an observation sheesh. So mean

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Posted
1 minute ago, D3zii said:

I’m just pointing out what most socials and podcasts outside the Texas bubble are saying. They believe this will be Napier’s last stand, and honestly, a lot of them already don’t think we’re that good to begin with.

 

What I don’t get is how they act like Lagway is the only QB capable of breaking out of a slump, but Arch can’t improve or turn things around. That logic  makes what @Js1 said make a lot of sense. Ppl praying on Texas downfall. 

I think it's a total mixed bag as nobody knows what to expect out of either offense.   The consensus on Dusty and Danny Sirius XM this AM (including a guest they had on) was that they trusted Arch more than Lagway.  Dusty liked Texas to cover and Danny leaned that way ass well taking the first half under but thought if we could get a meaningful lead in the 2nd half Florida might just collapse.   Of course I've seen the opposite take this week as well.  I don't think anyone knows what to make of Texas which is fair because frankly I don't either.  Such a weird schedule to start the season.

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Skipper said:

I think it's a total mixed bag as nobody knows what to expect out of either offense.   The consensus on Dusty and Danny Sirius XM this AM (including a guest they had on) was that they trusted Arch more than Lagway.  Dusty liked Texas to cover and Danny leaned that way ass well taking the first half under but thought if we could get a meaningful lead in the 2nd half Florida might just collapse.   Of course I've seen the opposite take this week as well.  I don't think anyone knows what to make of Texas which is fair because frankly I don't either.  Such a weird schedule to start the season.

Weird game. Texas defense > Florida defense. Oddly I think most would say that only advantage Texas offense has over the Florida Offense is at QB. (OL is an argument, Florida has more potential, but has not played well)

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Codaxx said:

Weird game. Texas defense > Florida defense. Oddly I think most would say that only advantage Texas offense has over the Florida Offense is at QB. (OL is an argument, Florida has more potential, but has not played well)

TE

Posted

I feel like getting Mosley back will help more than is being talked about. He gets open and catches the ball, which is something we can use right now assuming our QB can put the ball on him. 

Posted
1 minute ago, Helobious said:

I saw the banner and thought burnt ends was doing a literal swamp cruise and got jealous I wasn’t going. That would’ve been so cool.

Id stay off a swamp cruise with this bunch.   You will probably be the first gator bait 

Posted
1 minute ago, MontereyMX said:

Hasn’t actually felt like football season yet.  It’s weird. 

The Ohio St game felt like an NFL preseason game. The three games after felt like scrimmages. 

Posted
1 minute ago, MontereyMX said:

Hasn’t actually felt like football season yet.  It’s weird. 

Yeah, the unending, ever-loving hype for game 1, three straight scrimmages over speed bumps and a bye week

I am kind of jealous of the SEC teams who get to start the conference season during weeks 2/3.  

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Posted

Our 2026 schedule would be a lot cooler if it went something like: 

Texas State (home)
Ohio State (home)
SEC opener (road)
Bye
UTSA (home)
Rest of SEC schedule

That first bye after non-conf play and before SEC play just feels like a weird pause between seasons. 

Posted
5 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I feel like getting Mosley back will help more than is being talked about. He gets open and catches the ball, which is something we can use right now assuming our QB can put the ball on him. 

Bobby made a comment this morning that he is expecting something like 10-15 snaps for Mosley

Posted
10 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

throw your prayers to FL ....

 

 

Jeez. I'll be in the Jacksonville airport this evening. I hope it's not contagious. 

Posted
17 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I feel like getting Mosley back will help more than is being talked about. He gets open and catches the ball, which is something we can use right now assuming our QB can put the ball on him. 

2 things:

1. Livingstone and Moore are both over 70% completions per target (Believe Moore is around 80%)

2. Mosley's biggest benefit maybe getting the screen going. It is has been a missing this year. I have not seen him block, but his size should amke him a capable blocker. 

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Posted
17 hours ago, The Dog said:

image.thumb.png.d5d126c45f69f7cb6bd66793bcd3bf6c.png

(take with a large grain of salt since our schedule has been so poor)

Now that would be an absolute ass whooping and really turn heads, even if it's "just Florida".

But I think a 27-13 is more in line.

Posted
22 minutes ago, Helobious said:

I saw the banner and thought burnt ends was doing a literal swamp cruise and got jealous I wasn’t going. That would’ve been so cool.

It is that. You should be jealous. 

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Posted
41 minutes ago, D3zii said:

 

 

 

 

I’m just pointing out what most socials and podcasts outside the Texas bubble are saying. They believe this will be Napier’s last stand, and honestly, a lot of them already don’t think we’re that good to begin with.

 

What I don’t get is how they act like Lagway is the only QB capable of breaking out of a slump, but Arch can’t improve or turn things around. That logic  makes what @Js1 said make a lot of sense. Ppl praying on Texas downfall. 

There's two narratives that I've seen pushed that favor Florida:

1. Bounce back game and it's a team with their backs against the wall. Florida is the team with "nothing to lose" and will play fast and loose. Klatt or someone else mentioned that Billy always seems to have a game where they just ball out and win before regressing. 

2. Texas has OU next week, which makes this road trip a typical "trap game." We also blew them out last year, so Texas won't be as up for the game.

Not saying I necessarily agree with those takes, but that's what's out there. 

Anyway here is my favorite prediction from the Gators subreddit on the game:

Quote

3-2 both QBs throw 4 INT’s and the only scores are on arch running out the back of the endzone and their kicker hitting a 15 yard FG after they stalled out inside the 5

 

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Posted
52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Uh.....

Our own "fans" on Surly seem to agree on this.  Every CFB team in Surly's eyes is going to get better over the course of the season, but Texas and Arch will only get worse.

The only problem is that Helobious put the fucking jinx on us with his foolish prediction so now we are guaranteed a communist struggle session of a game.  We need Arch to take the gimmes when they are available.  Quinn was good at that.

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