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Eastwood

By Eastwood
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elfenix

elfenix 34161

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10 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

I know the difference, just questioning if the author does or has any real insight into the makeup of that large a number of foreign fighters?

they're carrying banners of bashar al-assad so that answers that question. 

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AUS-97HORN
AUS-97HORN

For the love of Christ woman,  stop posting the same fucking thing every 20 mins just to make your neurotic self feel better.     Bring something useful to the thread other than your inane babbli

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InkaUtexas
InkaUtexas

I volunteered today. Log/Admin role to replace people for 30-60 days. The operation is in the west, or should the Orcs win will be pulled back behind the NATO wall. Either way the humanitarian effort

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25289

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3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

All true.  And it circles back to the issue of time.  Time is the killer here.  It will grind both the RU, the UA, and most importantly the civilians into the dirt.  This seems to be the breakup of Yugoslavia on steroids.  I think the UA can and will pull this off, but it will be years in the making.  

Here's the problem.....how long is the attention span of the west?  For now, sure....we're all holding hands.  But what about 6 months from now?  A year?  Five years?  How long are we going to support them.  This is the only way they can "win", but they need supplies to continue to flow.  I hope it continues, but that is THE biggest singe point of failure for the UA. 

us....

It will last longer in the EU than in the US. One reason is the refugees are there and will be a constant reminder. 

Agree that this is going to go the way of Bosnia. Siege towns and cities, guard your flanks and don't allow in large amount of aid. Sarajevo almost starved a few times. Pretty fucking grim. 

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Brisketexan

Brisketexan 104226

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3 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

All true.  And it circles back to the issue of time.  Time is the killer here.  It will grind both the RU, the UA, and most importantly the civilians into the dirt.  This seems to be the breakup of Yugoslavia on steroids.  I think the UA can and will pull this off, but it will be years in the making.  

Here's the problem.....how long is the attention span of the west?  For now, sure....we're all holding hands.  But what about 6 months from now?  A year?  Five years?  How long are we going to support them.  This is the only way they can "win", but they need supplies to continue to flow.  I hope it continues, but that is THE biggest singe point of failure for the UA. 

us....

Are the Russian people and leadership going to stand by and let Putin set them back a century?  That's the operative question.  I think Ukraine can fight RUS to a stalemate of sorts and create a quagmire, but yeah, that has possible failure points.  The real question is whether all of the other forces in Russia -- people and leadership -- will be happy with Russia's only imports from the rest of the world being dead Russian boys shipped back in trucks from Ukraine, to parents who barely have food on the shelves.

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InkaUtexas

InkaUtexas 25289

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Interesting development. 

After seeing the shock invasion of Ukraine by Russian troops, the 34-year-old immediately offered his services to defend his ‘Ukrainian brothers and sisters’ against Russian tanks. 

“There is no difference between destroying Russian tanks and armoured vehicles, whether in Syria or Ukraine. These tanks are committing massacres against my Ukrainian brothers and sisters, and when they are finished in Ukraine, they will continue to kill my Syrian brothers and sisters,” he says. 

 

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10890

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23 minutes ago, Bravo said:

It would be easier to bleed them if the EU wasnt paying them a $1B/day.

It wouldn't hurt that's for sure, but $1B/day isn't going to do much to drive an entire wartime Russian economy. That's especially true if they are trying to appease a new middle-class that would be impacted the most by sanctions. There are a lot of popular historiographical theories about the rise of the middle-class in the late 19th century and how that impacted society at large in Europe and the United States. 2022 Russia wouldn't be immune to those same issues as the average Russian identity has been transformed from WW2 to now. 

 

If Putin was that wrong about Ukrainian resilience, then he may not have a grasp on the needs and wants of this generation of Russians which are going to be different than 1980s Soviets.

Edited by SimonBolivar
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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15190

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2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

It wouldn't hurt that's for sure, but $1B/day isn't going to do much to drive an entire wartime Russian economy. That's especially true if they are trying to appease a new middle-class that would be impacted the most by sanctions. There are a lot of popular historiographical theories about the rise of the middle-class in the late 19th century and how that impacted society at large in Europe and the United State. 2022 Russia wouldn't be immune to those same issues as the average Russian identity has been transformed from WW2 to now. 

 

If Putin was that wrong about Ukrainian resilience, then he may not have a grasp on the needs and wants of this generation of Russians which is going to be different than 1980s Soviets.

Spot on.  Also true about China.  Their middle class "problem" is also not easily dismissed and equally entangled with western goods/services as much as we are on them.  

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Goredho

Goredho 17272

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16 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Confirms the inept nature of so many Russians in this conflict.  Maybe they wish they'd get a do over and spend that money on logistical officers and not frontline ground poiunders

 

Dumbfucks probably are getting paid in rubles, too.

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Saint Tacky

Saint Tacky 1609

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2 hours ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

I am buddies with a Desert Storm era Warthog pilot....He said combat got boring over there after the first couple of sorties....Fish in a barrel. He is a non-Trump Republican hardcore pacifist now. /CSB

I had a coworker whose fiancé flew an A-10 in the first Gulf War. He flew in the attack on the retreating Iraqi military personnel attempting to leave Kuwait on the "Highway of Death."  The photos and scenes from that event that have come out since certainly fit his narrative of the carnage.  Flying the length of the convoy, or crossing over it and strafing soldiers that had fled into the desert. Cherry-picking targets at their leisure one at a time with an eye towards maximum damage to man and material. No resistance but small arms fire. He was more concerned about running low on fuel or ammunition and missing out on the last few runs than he was of getting fired upon.

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

I very much suspect this is the case.

Russia isn't going to quit.  They're just going to get nastier.  They will sacrifice many more troops and equipment.  They will get even more ruthless with cities and civilian targets.  This is total war, and Putin is still seeking nothing less than total victory.

Ukraine has a lot of fighting ahead of it.  It is going to be exhausting, demoralizing, and a humanitarian disaster.  Just like Russia wants it to be.  Our job is to keep feeding them the weapons and intel so they can bleed the Russians to death and deprive them of their means to effectively wage war in another country.

Here Is Fiona Hill on "The Daily" today. She says in an interview with Ezra Klein that Putin has shifted from regime change to complete annihilation of Ukraine, it's leaders, cities, and population. He wants nothing more that to punish everyone [13:51] and teach a lesson to anyone that chooses to ignore Russia. This is a long way from over [19:54]. 

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10890

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13 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

and teach a lesson to anyone that chooses to ignore Russia. This is a long way from over [19:54]. 

The only lesson the rest of the world has taken from this is that you probably don't need to worry too much about a conventional war with Russia unless you are a former Soviet Republic that hasn't joined NATO and that investing your business in Russia is a bad idea. Well except Finland, Finland learned that they need to be more outgoing.

 

The idea that now Russia is going to decimate Ukraine so that we take note is gone. They could execute a perfect plan from here on out and it'll still be considered a folly that exposed a paper tiger.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34241

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9 minutes ago, Goredho said:

Dumbfucks probably are getting paid in rubles, too.

This is where I remind everyone that the Wagner Group doesn’t really exist and is just a proxy and plausibly deniable extension of the Russian military and military intelligence. If they are “dropping recruiting requirements” what that most likely means is that a bunch of conscripts are fixing to become Wagner Mercenaries, maybe even retroactively. 

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15190

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5 minutes ago, Saint Tacky said:

Here Is Fiona Hill on "The Daily" today. She says in an interview with Ezra Klein that Putin has shifted from regime change to complete annihilation of Ukraine, it's leaders, cities, and population. He wants nothing more that to punish everyone [13:51] and teach a lesson to anyone that chooses to ignore Russia. This is a long way from over [19:54]. 

Unfortunately, this seems the direction things are going.  Long, drawn out conflict.  How long will the West "suffer"?  I know it's tongue in cheek, but what happens if gas hits $6-$7/gallon?  More sanctions?  Where?  Cutting off oil/gas was our last card to play short of war (which Russia considers as act of war).  Think this draws on through next winter?  Heard heating costs in Europe are more than 10x what they are here.  Ten+ times higher.  

It's not a matter of will, it's a matter of voters.  Midterms, POTUS, etc...how easy is it to say "I will change things".  Politicians are many things, but self-serving is a universal trait.  If the heats gets ramped up, I can see some measure of caving or "talks" happening to get their constituents happy.  Russia's play might be to draw this out as long as they can to punish the West who are reliant on so many of their goods while China smiles from the sidelines.

Not a good outlook.  

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SimonBolivar

SimonBolivar 10890

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2 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

Unfortunately, this seems the direction things are going.  Long, drawn out conflict.  How long will the West "suffer"?  I know it's tongue in cheek, but what happens if gas hits $6-$7/gallon?  More sanctions?  Where?  Cutting off oil/gas was our last card to play short of war (which Russia considers as act of war).  Think this draws on through next winter?  Heard heating costs in Europe are more than 10x what they are here.  Ten+ times higher.  

It's not a matter of will, it's a matter of voters.  Midterms, POTUS, etc...how easy is it to say "I will change things".  Politicians are many things, but self-serving is a universal trait.  If the heats gets ramped up, I can see some measure of caving or "talks" happening to get their constituents happy.  Russia's play might be to draw this out as long as they can to punish the West who are reliant on so many of their goods while China smiles from the sidelines.

Not a good outlook.  

How hard would it be for the US to open back up a local "Drill baby drill" attitude? Do we have the viable equipment?

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Bevo

Bevo 13468

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7 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

This is where I remind everyone that the Wagner Group doesn’t really exist and is just a proxy and plausibly deniable extension of the Russian military and military intelligence. If they are “dropping recruiting requirements” what that most likely means is that a bunch of conscripts are fixing to become Wagner Mercenaries, maybe even retroactively. 

Probably a good idea for Putin. Blackwater pays about $175K/yr. Russia doesn't have that kind of scratch.

We've cut back on Blackwater because of lack of accountability regarding war crimes. Russia doesn't really give a shit. In fact, Russia uses Wagner for plausible deniability and the ability for them to do whatever the hell they want regarding war crimes.

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956 Worldwide

956 Worldwide 34241

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1 minute ago, Bevo said:

Probably a good idea for Putin. Blackwater pays about $175K/yr. Russia doesn't have that kind of scratch.

We've cut back on Blackwater because of lack of accountability regarding war crimes. Russia doesn't really give a shit. In fact, Russia uses Wagner for plausible deniability and the ability for them to do whatever the hell they want regarding war crimes.

Yep, and to engage in bootleg mineral extraction and to pretend like the Russian state isn’t propping up various Africa and MENA nasties.

If anyone is tempted to believe Wagner exists, follow the logic chain: Putin allowed the creation of an elite military outside his chain of command and with someone else cutting the paychecks. 
 

Putin doesn’t allow a TV show where he is a puppet, but he allowed that? 
 

 

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Longhornlove

Longhornlove 4773

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3 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

How hard would it be for the US to open back up a local "Drill baby drill" attitude? Do we have the viable equipment?

The rigs are stacked out but available. All the production companies need is capital to pay for the drilling cost and site infrastructure. Within a year you should see a significant increase in production. Offshore is a different story. Those projects are usually close to 10 years from sanction to production in a new field. They can drill wells in existing fields with platforms nearby and pipe them in. That still takes significant time though.

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BabaYaga

BabaYaga 15190

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1 minute ago, InkaUtexas said:

Interesting thread about Russian mobility and how the ukraine is messing them up. Also talks about the shitty conditions of the roads. 

 

Already stated multiple times, but poignant as ever:  amateurs talk tactics, professionals talk logistics

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PTINS

PTINS 3438

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2 minutes ago, SimonBolivar said:

How hard would it be for the US to open back up a local "Drill baby drill" attitude? Do we have the viable equipment?

No. 

Covid decimated O&G demand in 2020, it started rebounding later in the year, and the green intiative gave it a big kick in the nuts in 2021.  

The Oil & Gas industry is very capital intensive, and the investment community RAN away from the industry given the politcal environment. Wall Street demands capital discipline from energy companies, and trashing your 2022 budget and plan would not be viewed favorably.

 

If the EU shuts off imports from Russia, is the US ready to step up and take up the slack?  In the past month, Congress has floated trial balloons of protectionist policies, limiting exports of oil & gas and windfall profits taxes.  The US is capable of meeting the challenge, but does the US want really to?

 

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