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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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14 minutes ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

Obligatory World War Z reference. Probably randomly chosen, but maybe a reference to the Ukrainian president as well.

I sincerely doubt it’s a reference to WWZ, haha. 

It’s being used to help aircraft with friendly identification. Different groups use different insignia. 

That said, the symbol Z has now quickly been adopted as a symbol of Russian nationalism. I found one reference to it on a Russian nationalist video made before the war that used a double Z pattern that was reminiscent of Nazi iconography, but I feel like that’s a coincidence.  

Don’t know why the Z was adopted over the O or V - other call signs utilized on vehicles involved in the invasion - other than it looks cooler as a letter, I guess. 

16 year old Russian gymnast just wore the symbol on the podium after beating a Ukrainian which is getting some play, but there are a lot of social media shots of varying degrees of Putin supporting celebrities adopting it. 

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1 hour ago, Kel Varnsen said:

How do you negotiate with an irrational and disingenuous party?

I don’t know but it’s the diplomats that got us here. This didn’t just start a couple months ago. 

1 hour ago, LCHorn said:

Have you perceived that the Russians are open to negotiation?  What is more diplomats supposed to achieve?

I do think it’s possible yes and I’ll leave it at that. 

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33 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

I'm in tears right now.

It was from his first solo album Dream of the Blue Turtles. First time I heard it was sitting in front of a Four-plex I lived in, with my parents, after oil went from $30/bbl to $9/bbl in 1985. Powerful song, and pre-wall crumblin'.

CHIEF

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9 minutes ago, sasquatch69 said:

 

That’s a great common sense analysis. 

The thing she doesn’t say in there that is really really important, is that you don’t get authoritarian change when things are going great. Somebody somewhere has to be upset. And really, I mean quite a few somebodies. And they have to find ways to coordinate their actions without getting caught, and without one of their members turning them in. That’s a lot of “ands.”

What sanctions do is help more people get upset. Will it be enough? Fuck if I know. But it’s obvious Putin is scared. Take the opposite approach. Continue to give Russia a more unfettered access to western economies. Is that more helpful to bring about regime change? Or less?

She’s not arguing against economic sanctions. She’s just trying to create measured expectations for what they can do. That’s fair. Trying to create regime change isn’t the most important reason to impose sanctions anyway. But even if that was its only possible effect it would be the right call, because frankly there isn’t a lot of internal opposition to Putin to leverage in any case. He’s made sure of that.  

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My apologies on this...I do follow as closely as I can but I miss stuff at the same time. Have most of y'all already seen this? I thought it was cool. 

This is the main link that gets updated: https://maphub.net/Cen4infoRes/russian-ukraine-monitor

Admittedly, I am unclear on what all of this means exactly. Anyone want to weigh in that does get it?

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17 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

It was from his first solo album Dream of the Blue Turtles. First time I heard it was sitting in front of a Four-plex I lived in, with my parents, after oil went from $30/bbl to $9/bbl in 1985. Powerful song, and pre-wall crumblin'.

CHIEF

I know. Own that CD, and all his solo works up to Mercury Falling (minus Soul Cages).

And I don't know what Nicole's talking about because she's old enough to remember that song from Top 40 radio, just like I am. 😉

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Here is a timeline of the main events so far up through February 12, 2022. TLDR or TLWR (won't read) or TLCR (can't read because I put Nicole on ignore)...for all you Diplomacy Junkies that think negotiations with Putin are gonna fucking work at this stage. We all know the events as they transpired within two weeks of that date. A fucking invasion. Timeline is courtesy of Al Jeezeera. DO I NEED TO FACT CHECK THIS FOR PEOPLE WHO DON'T FUCKING GET IT!

 https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/13/timeline-how-the-ukraine-russia-crisis-reached-the-brink-of-war

November 2021

Satellite imagery shows a new build-up of Russian troops on the border with Ukraine, and Kyiv says Moscow has mobilised 100,000 soldiers along with tanks and other military hardware.

December 7, 2021

US President Joe Biden warns Russia of sweeping Western economic sanctions if it invades Ukraine.

December 17, 2021

Russia presents detailed security demands to the West, including that NATO ceases all military activity in eastern Europe and Ukraine and that the alliance never accept Ukraine or other former Soviet nations as members.

January 3, 2022

Biden reassures Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the US will “respond decisively” if Russia invades Ukraine.

The two men spoke on the phone to discuss preparations for a series of upcoming diplomatic meetings to address the crisis.

January 10, 2022

US and Russian officials meet in Geneva for diplomatic talks but differences remain unresolved as Moscow repeats security demands that Washington says it cannot accept.

January 24, 2022

NATO puts forces on standby and reinforces its military presence in Eastern Europe with more ships and fighter jets. Some Western nations start evacuating non-essential embassy staff from Kyiv. The US puts 8,500 troops on alert.

January 26, 2022

Washington presents a written response to Russia’s security demands, repeating a commitment to NATO’s “open-door” policy while offering a “principled and pragmatic evaluation” of Moscow’s concerns.

January 27, 2022

Biden warns of a likely Russian invasion in February. China throws its political weight behind Russia and tells the US that Moscow’s “legitimate security concerns” should be “taken seriously”.

January 28, 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin says Russia’s main security demands have not been addressed but that Moscow is ready to keep talking.

Ukraine’s President Zelenkskyy warns the West to avoid creating “panic” that will negatively affect his country’s economy.

January 31, 2022

US and Russia spar over the Ukraine crisis at a special closed session of the UN Security Council.

US Ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield told the council a Russian invasion of Ukraine would threaten global security.

Russia’s UN envoy Vasily Nebenzya accused Washington and its allies of drumming up the threat of war despite Moscow’s repeated denials of a planned invasion.

“The discussions about a threat of war is provocative in and of itself. You are almost calling for this. You want it to happen,” Nebenzya said.

February 1, 2022

Putin denies planning an invasion and accuses the US of ignoring his country’s security demands.

February 6, 2022

Russia has established 70 percent of the military buildup it needs to launch a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, according to American officials cited anonymously in US media.

February 8, 2022

French President Emmanuel Macron meets Putin for marathon talks in Moscow and tells reporters Russia will not escalate the Ukraine crisis.

However, the Kremlin denied that Macron and Putin struck a deal on de-escalating the crisis. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that “in the current situation, Moscow and Paris can’t be reaching any deals”.

February 10, 2022

UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss and Russian FM Sergey Lavrov hold fruitless talks.

In an icy press conference, Lavrov described the meeting as “a conversation between a mute and a deaf person”.

He added that the “facts” presented by his team on the crisis “bounced off” their British counterparts.

Truss, who warned of tough Western sanctions if Ukraine was attacked, challenged Lavrov about his assertion that Russia’s buildup of troops and weaponry was not threatening anyone.

February 11, 2022

Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, says US intelligence shows a Russian invasion could begin within days, before the Beijing Olympics end on February 20.

The Pentagon ordered an additional 3,000 US troops to be sent to Poland to reassure allies. Meanwhile, a number of countries called upon their citizens to leave Ukraine, with some warning that a military evacuation will not be guaranteed in the event of war.

February 12, 2022

Biden and Putin hold talks via video conference. The US president said a Russian invasion of Ukraine would cause “widespread human suffering” and that the West was committed to diplomacy to end the crisis but “equally prepared for other scenarios”.

Putin complained in the call that the US and NATO have not responded satisfactorily to Russian demands that Ukraine be prohibited from joining the military alliance and that NATO pull back forces from Eastern Europe.

Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy aide, said that while tensions have been escalating for months, in recent days “the situation has simply been brought to the point of absurdity”.

He said Biden mentioned the possible sanctions that could be imposed on Russia, but: “This issue was not the focus during a fairly long conversation with the Russian leader.”

 

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30 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I sincerely doubt it’s a reference to WWZ, haha

I was making the obligatory reference. There’s also Zorro, the Gay Blade, and that might terrify the nazi elements or inflame them ( in more ways than one?), but that’s hardly the stuff to motivate most troops.

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
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1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:
2 hours ago, FartingMonk said:
And Zelensky is asking for a no fly zone and MIGs.  You can't have both.  

He wants either one. He is literally fighting for his life.

Yeah, the Twitter cast @Saint Tacky just posted with three really sharp observers of this conflict make it clear that the Russian sorties are having a devastating effect, particularly in Kharkiv and Mariupol. We like to focus on the idea that Russia hasn’t achieved total air superiority over all of Ukraine, but it’s obvious they’ve achieved it over parts of Ukraine, and it’s affecting how they’re conducting the campaign right now. 

The truth is the west can’t give Ukraine enough fighter jets to turn the tide of the war.  There’s no way Ukraine has enough trained fighter pilots in any case. And flight time matters, as does the quality of the training. All of those fighter jets will be shot down, especially the closer they get to the Belarus and Russian border. Despite all the other clusterfucks we’ve seen from the Russian military, Russian SAM systems are absolutely state of the art. Arguably the most competitive part of their military with the west  

In all honesty it makes more sense to supply more sophisticated SAM systems, but they take training to operate as well. But they’re cheaper, not nearly as hard to make people effective with them as with a fighter jet, don’t require nearly the same kind of maintenance and down time, not to mention fuel. And they’re effective for way longer periods of time. 

Fighter jets are way sexier, so I get it. But if I were Zelensky I’d be trying to get more sophisticated SAM systems across the border in as high a number as I could. 

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8 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

Yeah, the Twitter cast @Saint Tacky just posted with three really sharp observers of this conflict make it clear that the Russian sorties are having a devastating effect, particularly in Kharkiv and Mariupol. We like to focus on the idea that Russia hasn’t achieved total air superiority over all of Ukraine, but it’s obvious they’ve achieved it over parts of Ukraine, and it’s affecting how they’re conducting the campaign right now. 

The truth is the west can’t give Ukraine enough fighter jets to turn the tide of the war.  There’s no way Ukraine has enough trained fighter pilots in any case. And flight time matters, as does the quality of the training. All of those fighter jets will be shot down, especially the closer they get to the Belarus and Russian border. Despite all the other clusterfucks we’ve seen from the Russian military, Russian SAM systems are absolutely state of the art. Arguably the most competitive part of their military with the west  

In all honesty it makes more sense to supply more sophisticated SAM systems, but they take training to operate as well. But they’re cheaper, not nearly as hard to make people effective with them as with a fighter jet, don’t require nearly the same kind of maintenance and down time, not to mention fuel. And they’re effective for way longer periods of time. 

Fighter jets are way sexier, so I get it. But if I were Zelensky I’d be trying to get more sophisticated SAM systems across the border in as high a number as I could. 

The flip side of this is the Russians are weeks away from not being able to supply bullets and pay their troops.  Or possibly maintenance their air craft. This appears to be settling into a standoff where a better supplied resistance works/faces off against an occupier who is okay with war criming against a civilian populace (which is then further radicalized against the occupier)

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4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The flip side of this is the Russians are weeks away from not being able to supply bullets and pay their troops.  Or possibly maintenance their air craft. This appears to be settling into a standoff where a better supplied resistance works/faces off against an occupier who is okay with war criming against a civilian populace (which is then further radicalized against the occupier)

I know we want this to be true. I do.  And maybe it comes about. But even given that, how does it change the calculus of wanting more fighter jets versus SAM systems? Of course, I’m sure he wants both. I’m just reacting to the public posturing. 
 

At some point Putin is going to try to escalate this. It’s Russian doctrine. I have no idea what that could entail outside of tactical nukes, so I’m hoping for some kind of alternative regardless of what it is. 

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2 minutes ago, SL Xpress said:

I know we want this to be true. I do.  And maybe it comes about. But even given that, how does it change the calculus of wanting more fighter jets versus SAM systems? Of course, I’m sure he wants both. I’m just reacting to the public posturing. 
 

At some point Putin is going to try to escalate this. It’s Russian doctrine. I have no idea what that could entail outside of tactical nukes, so I’m hoping for some kind of alternative regardless of what it is. 

My thing with the nukes is: Ukraine’s value is in its agriculture. Nuking Kyiv destroys that, especially on top of the economic sanctions that cut those grain exports off from most international markets.

I don’t see how this plays out, beyond the Russians shelling the major metro areas into ruble. But I also don’t see a Russian out that leaves Russia in a better off position than they were weeks ago. 

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23 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The flip side of this is the Russians are weeks away from not being able to supply bullets and pay their troops.  Or possibly maintenance their air craft. This appears to be settling into a standoff where a better supplied resistance works/faces off against an occupier who is okay with war criming against a civilian populace (which is then further radicalized against the occupier)

At this pace, when will the Ukrainians be literally better supplied?  They're getting guns, butter and St. Javelins from the Allies.  While the Russians have a limited supply of Scoobie Vans.  When will the 2 lines pass eachother?

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1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

Some info on Z.  Also a really long and informative thread on a wide variety of issues.  

Speaking of, RT.com, the fucking mouthpiece for the Russian government is selling Z apparel in their online shop

https://en.shop-rt.com/element/tshirt_z/

Quote

All money from the sale of T-shirts will go to help the refugees of Donbass and the heroes of the RT "Children of War" project.

 

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11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

If they are setting up a false flag, that means that he is actually going to kill at least some of his own guys.  Unreal

As opposed to just siphoning off funds for all manner of military equipment, not telling most of them till the last minute where they're going, and leaving them with little to no real plan?  He's killed many of his own soldiers already.

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1 minute ago, Captain Obvious said:

As opposed to just siphoning off funds for all manner of military equipment, not telling most of them till the last minute where they're going, and leaving them with little to no real plan?  He's killed many of his own soldiers already.

Very fair point, it just seems more appalling that he is going to vaporize some of them now.  You are right though, how big of a leap really is it?

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7 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of, RT.com, the fucking mouthpiece for the Russian government is selling Z apparel in their online shop

https://en.shop-rt.com/element/tshirt_z/

 

I'll admit to watching their news WAY back when they started.  Memory is fuzzy, but iirc, they were very even.  Guess that was their hook.  Get your eyeballs and slowly turn on the propaganda.

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2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Very fair point, it just seems more appalling that he is going to vaporize some of them now.  You are right though, how big of a leap really is it?

It's really only a leap for the portion of the Russian populace that still buys whatever he says.  Attempting a false flag by killing his own soldiers isn't going to lower our opinion of him any further.  

 

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56 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Some of these Rubio tweets… man 

 

 

1 minute ago, SL Xpress said:

That’s some scary shit right there. Way more scary than Rubin’s tweets. I mean, there’s my escalation I’ve been speculating about right there. Why wouldn’t he do it once he’s prepared the message domestically?

 

Somebody mentioned it earlier - RT.com, one of the Russian government's mouthpieces, has a story about Ukraine getting a nuclear false flag operation ready, as well as covering up evidence of a us-funded bioweapons lab.

Which means Putin's people already have the false flags planted and ready to go for the typical Soviet Russian citizen (and idiots in the West who read RT, etc.) to rally around the Hammer and...err I mean flag.

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1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

I know we want this to be true. I do.  And maybe it comes about. But even given that, how does it change the calculus of wanting more fighter jets versus SAM systems? Of course, I’m sure he wants both. I’m just reacting to the public posturing. 
 

At some point Putin is going to try to escalate this. It’s Russian doctrine. I have no idea what that could entail outside of tactical nukes, so I’m hoping for some kind of alternative regardless of what it is. 

I know we've talked about tactical nukes and things but he really has nowhere to throw one.  The more effective terror weapon he has at his disposal is to send heavy bombers and level a city.  Bomb them into surrender.  Civilians and all.  It's a tried and true strategy.  

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1 hour ago, SL Xpress said:

That’s a great common sense analysis. 

The thing she doesn’t say in there that is really really important, is that you don’t get authoritarian change when things are going great. Somebody somewhere has to be upset. And really, I mean quite a few somebodies. And they have to find ways to coordinate their actions without getting caught, and without one of their members turning them in. That’s a lot of “ands.”

What sanctions do is help more people get upset. Will it be enough? Fuck if I know. But it’s obvious Putin is scared. Take the opposite approach. Continue to give Russia a more unfettered access to western economies. Is that more helpful to bring about regime change? Or less?

She’s not arguing against economic sanctions. She’s just trying to create measured expectations for what they can do. That’s fair. Trying to create regime change isn’t the most important reason to impose sanctions anyway. But even if that was its only possible effect it would be the right call, because frankly there isn’t a lot of internal opposition to Putin to leverage in any case. He’s made sure of that.  

Putin learned from the best - the KGB.

Putin has one thing working against him - he has to find somebody to blame for this fuckup.  His invasion has blown up in his face and is crippling his economy - the Russian stock market is supposed to open on Wednesday, but we'll see. He can close off his internet to the outside world, he can arrest thousands/tens of thousands of dissidents, he can roll out "educational" programs aimed at the kids, that could get some of them to turn in their parents.

But there has to be a fall guy because he has lost face amongst the military.  

Okay, make that two things - he has to keep his military and secret police/National Guard (one and the same, and not like our National Guard) paid up/paid off.  Some have tossed around parallel with WWI, and in that mix you had the military siding with civilians against the government and police at times.

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