Русский корабль - иди нахуй

[956 Worldwide 34241]

1 minute ago, morehornsepower said:

Slight tangent - Jose Andres (WCK) speaking at work today...looking forward to this...

He’s low key one of the best people around. Well, as far as anyone can tell.  WCK is amazing. 

[The Dog 43715]

ruh roh:

 

[Bevo 13468]

I expect Lukashenko to die any day now. Any news?

[SquishMitten 10381]

2 hours ago, Parliament said:

I've wondered that myself.  In my mind it comes down to how long we think western support will hold.  If we think the US, NATO, etc. are with us for the long haul, why not wait.  All the reasons you mentioned, and also the results of sanctions, preach patience.

Well, the Russians aren't just sitting around doing nothing. Ukrainian civilians are still dying every day.

[The Dog 43715]

22 minutes ago, Bevo said:

I expect Lukashenko to die any day now. Any news?

^ Belarus political analyst.

[morehornsepower 864]

56 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

He’s low key one of the best people around. Well, as far as anyone can tell.  WCK is amazing. 

Agreed, and his speaking certainly didn't change my opinion on that.  So matter of fact about being there to help others - this basic assumption of 'well, I have these skills/assets, why *wouldn't* I use them to help others?'.  He did not disappoint.

[Rimbo 25705]

spoilered due to longcat

Spoiler

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28710]

44 minutes ago, The Dog said:

^ Belarus political analyst.

[Nivek 16771]

3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

I mean, borscht is delicious…..

Look, I could be bribed with Brisket to become a traitor, but beet soup?  I have standards.  

[InkaUtexas 25289]

Just now, Nivek said:

Look, I could be bribed with Brisket to become a traitor, but beet soup?  I have standards.  

So going out on the ledge are ya? 

 

 

[RDCanecutter 26198]

If Ukrainians want anything from Belarus, they'll just go take it.

[BamaATL 16592]

You think Farmer's has seen it and covered it?

That J.K. Simmons is full of shit man

[MissingInAction 24746]

You know we'd all be cheering had it hit a cyclist.

[RDCanecutter 26198]

I wonder how many front-line Mobik lives Ukraine saves for each Chechen or paratrooper they blow up. Fewer rear-area blocking-detachment troops, fewer guys to shoot any Mobiks who run.

Run free, little Mobik. Run like the wind.

[Nivek 16771]

28 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

So going out on the ledge are ya? 

 

 

Damn capitalization really fucked that sentence.  I was thinking more of Aaron Franklin products than a Susanna Hoffs-obsessed lawyer.   

[Nivek 16771]

23 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

You think Farmer's has seen it and covered it?

That J.K. Simmons is full of shit man

Missiles so fast they are caught on a dash cam.  Missiles so powerful they can shut down 2 lanes of traffic in one direction for about 2 minutes.  

[Eastwood 4394]

7 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

I am not a drone spotter/expert—but I don’t have a hard time believing that this Moscow attack is a AFU operation.  I really doubt that they were targeting civilian targets explicitly, it’s more likely they were interferes with and shot down by RU air defenses. But I don’t see hitting military targets as their primary benefit, nor do I see the psychological impact as most important. What’s most important is that Russia is going to have to reassess and redeploy EW and AD around Moscow and other internal sites, and they’re going to have to dedicate the people trained to operate it as well. Anything that degrades or impacts their ability to use these systems in Ukraine is a W. 
 

For what it’s worth, I think the main reason Russia keeps using these Iranian drone swarm attacks is to use up as much AFU AD capacity, too. With the added benefit (to Orcs) of psychological terror.

 

I don’t know a whole lot about the drones used, but they looked low and slow and loud. The drones were either traversing the Russian countryside for 10 minutes and their defenses couldn’t get ready or Ukraine got all the necessary equipment up to the Moscow city limits under Russia’s nose like a damn sight gag from a Harold Ramis or John Hughes movie.

Either way, just another embarrassing display of Russian military capability. A sad state of affairs for Putin where an inside job would be the least embarrassing explanation of how that happened. 

[BamaATL 16592]

2 minutes ago, Nivek said:

Missiles so fast they are caught on a dash cam.  Missiles so powerful they can shut down 2 lanes of traffic in one direction for about 2 minutes.  

If you have to yell at the top of your lungs that you have the best words, maybe you don't?  If you run around telling people how unstoppable your missiles are......

[The Dog 43715]

 

[statsman 5369]

I worry about Ukraine, I do. I worry about them having enough munitions. I worry about continued western support. I worry about Russia, because it is really big and they really are bastards. 
 
But…two of their top military leaders (I can’t bring myself to call them “generals” as neither is commissioned in a real sense) are Prighozin, who is basically a prison-hardened thug, and Kadyrov, a trained attorney with three wives. 
 
Their forces are exceptionally cruel, willing to commit war crimes all day long. They aren’t professional. They’re more “gangs” than armies. They’re more likely to show up with more Viagra than they need (for the raping) than they are to show up with proper gear. 
 
My hope is that Ukraine’s offensive will feint, dash through an opening in the lines, and use comms superioritmy to sow confusion and chaos through the Russian ranks. My hope is that Ukraine’s professional army beats these Russian clowns down. 
 
I grew up on army bases. To me, the US uniforms mean something. The Russians are larping and I hope they suffer for it. Remember what Bradley said- “Amateurs talk strategy. Professionals talk logistics”. 

[Brisketexan 104226]

1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Damn capitalization really fucked that sentence.  I was thinking more of Aaron Franklin products than a Susanna Hoffs-obsessed lawyer.   

[The Dog 43715]

 

[SL Xpress 7503]

So many great posts and conversations on this page.

Here's an NPR article quoting a Russian who used to work in Moscow at the Russian Central Bank but now is in Germany as a Russian analyst for the German Council on Foreign Relations.

Lots of information about the severe brain drain and labor shortages going on in Russia, and how it's going to get worse as time goes on. Dovetails with some of the things @The Dog is saying. 

I tend to be of the view that timeliness is important for the upcoming counter offensive, but it being successful is way more important. But that's a different post.

Anyway, here's the article. Good stuff if you like reading about Russian's systemic weaknesses in fighting this war, which I think most of us do:

https://www.npr.org/2023/05/31/1176769042/russia-economy-brain-drain-oil-prices-flee-ukraine-invasion

Spoiler

She had a dream job. Now, she's part of a massive brain drain hammering Russia

May 31, 202311:52 AM ET

 

Stacey Vanek Smith

LISTEN· 4:054-Minute ListenPLAYLIST

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Alexandra Prokopenko poses at a marathon event back in Russia. She used to run in Moscow's Meshchersky Park all the time: It was her favorite place in the city. But she's doubtful she will see it again, at least for the near future. Shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine, she left her country, along with hundreds of thousands of her peers.

Alexandra Prokopenko

Alexandra Prokopenko grew up in Moscow. She was always fascinated by economics: money, business, the way economies worked.

A few years ago, she landed a dream job as an adviser at Russia's central bank in Moscow.

Prokopenko loved Moscow. The city was vibrant and beautiful — full of restaurants, music and culture. But by far, her favorite place was Meshchersky Park, a giant forest in the city, where Prokopenko would go running.

"It was my favorite place. I always felt really great in there," she recalls.

 

UKRAINE INVASION — EXPLAINED

Putin signs a tough new military draft law, banning conscripts from fleeing Russia

But Prokopenko's Meshchersky runs are a thing of the past. She left Moscow, as well as her job at the central bank, shortly after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

Prokopenko now works at the German Council on Foreign Relations. Her focus is still the Russian economy — she publishes new analyses and data every week.

She says she's glad to be there, but it isn't home.

"I'm missing Moscow a lot," she says. "I miss Moscow every day."

Prokopenko is part of a massive wave of young Russians who have fled their country. Though hard numbers are hard to come by, hundreds of thousands are estimated to have left Russia since its invasion of Ukraine.

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That has contributed to a reduction in Russia's labor force.

According to one estimate, more than 1.3 million Russians under the age 35 left the Russian workforce just last year alone, though that number could include other factors such as workers taking jobs not officially captured in statistics.

 

Alexandra Prokopenko had a dream job at Russia's central bank in Moscow, a city she loved.

Alexandra Prokopenko

Especially among those who have fled the country are educated workers with in-demand skills like engineering or computer programming. This massive loss of talent looks to be one of the biggest economic consequences of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

"I don't think Russian authorities will admit it, but we've seen a massive brain drain," says Prokopenko.

A "full-blown demographic crisis"

Even before the invasion, Russia was experiencing a labor shortage: Businesses and factories complained that they couldn't find the workers they needed.

"Now it's a full-blown demographic crisis," says Oleg Itskhoki, an economist at the University of California, Los Angeles.

Itskhoki says this poses a huge problem for Russia's economy: Without workers, many companies and businesses are having to scale back or even shut down entirely.

But the labor shortage is not the only problem facing the Russian economy.

In 2022, Russia's economy held strong in spite of harsh sanctions, earning the nickname "fortress Russia." A lot of this economic toughness came from oil prices. The invasion of Ukraine caused a global panic that pushed the price of oil way up.

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Russia was able to sell its oil to China and India, among others. And a lot of the sanctions against selling oil and natural gas to Europe didn't kick in until the end of last year.

2023: the "year of difficult choices"

But 2023 is a very different year for the Russian economy. European sanctions have kicked in, so oil revenues are way down and now the war is costing Russia hundreds of millions of dollars a day.

"2023 is the year of difficult choices for Russia," says Itskhoki.

He says right now Russia needs money, which means President Vladimir Putin will have to either raise taxes (most likely on businesses) or force people to buy war bonds — or both.

That could erode support for the war, which Putin desperately needs.

 

 

The Russian economy managed to thrive in 2022, in spite of sanctions, earning the nickname "fortress Russia," but 2023 has been a very different year.

Dimitar Dilkoff/AFP via Getty Images

"The Kremlin obviously is paying attention to what's particularly unpopular among the population," says Itskhoki. "They're trying to navigate what's least unpopular."

Fortress Russia is starting to feel the heat.

Russian manufacturing: back to the future

2023 has also started to reveal some cracks around Russia's production and manufacturing.

 

POLITICS

The G-7 is tightening up economic sanctions on Russia for its war on Ukraine

The lion's share of resources and technology is being funneled to weaponry. At the same time, sanctions mean Russia can't import goods from many countries and manufacturers often can't get products or parts.

"For example, air bag technology is not available in Russia," says Itskhoki. "And so the cars that are assembled in Russia are assembled without air bags."

Or anti-lock brakes.

Many of the trains, planes and other high-tech goods that are made in Russia are using technology from decades ago.

Russia can still import a lot from places like China, but that takes business away from Russian companies and it also risks creating an even greater economic dependence on China, which Putin doesn't want.

Russia's people problem

Still, Itskhoki and Prokopenko stress that the biggest issue facing the Russian economy isn't products or sanctions: It's people.

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A generation of skilled workers who are now fighting on the front or who have fled the country.

Skilled workers like Prokopenko herself, who says she still dreams of going on long runs in the forests of Meshchersky Park but isn't convinced that this will happen anytime soon.

 

UKRAINE INVASION — EXPLAINED

Russia has amassed a shadow fleet to ship its oil around sanctions

"I'd love to go back, but I don't feel it would be safe for me," she says. "People in Russia can become prisoners for nothing."

Prokopenko says she's in touch with many fellow Russians who have left, most of them young skilled workers like herself. She says the consensus is that as long as Putin is running the country, there's no going back.

And that is a huge problem for Russia not just right now but also going forward.

After all, while sanctions and restrictions on manufacturing could affect Russia's economy for years to come, losing a generation of its best and brightest could damage the country's economy for generations.

 

[tx 3 putt 75959]

Go raise some hell ….

 

[MissingInAction 24746]

 

 

[Schulz2.0 28710]

 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

5 hours ago, The Dog said:

This is another prediction that has so far been proven wrong. Russia's resources aren't what everyone thought (because the Russians lied about it in all of their official reports that was the primary source of intelligence).

I think Putin will bite the bullet and make a go at a large mobilization soon. The drone attacks, false flag or not, will help.

5 hours ago, The Dog said:

The longer this goes the worse it is for Russia - not Ukraine. 

Agreed.

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

3 hours ago, Nivek said:

Missiles so fast they are caught on a dash cam.  Missiles so powerful they can shut down 2 lanes of traffic in one direction for about 2 minutes.  

Second most powerful army in the world can't even create a traffic jam.

[Brisketexan 104226]

Just now, Grade of D as in David said:

Second most powerful army in the world can't even create a traffic jam.

[TXDOT's I-35 crews] 

[/TXDOT's I-35 crews]

[Superhero 8699]

6 hours ago, Scheiss Meister said:

The longer you wait, the higher the risk of having your plans get into Russian hands.  The Germans delayed the attack at Kursk to get Panther tanks into service.  The Russians got ahold of the German plans, down to the minute that the attack was to jump off, and used the delay to shape the battlefield and prepare very deep defensive positions and position reserves in the best places for the counter attack after the Germans were stopped.  From what I've seen, the Russian defensive positions in Ukraine are modeled on their positions around Kursk.

As has been mentioned, too much delay risks a loss of political will to support Ukraine in Western countries.  Lack of action waiting for F-16s and other modern jets may result in those jets never coming. 

Finally, too much delay will undercut the morale in the Ukrainian Army.  Once they get everything fine tuned and ready for the fight, it is impossible to hold that edge indefinitely.  Too much delay also sends a signal of weakness to both the Ukrainian Army and the Russian Army.

As the wise Tuco Ramirez said, "When it's time to shoot, shoot.  Don't talk."

 

Or as Marco said:

 

[The Dog 43715]

 

[SaucyJack 3475]

Well since that  MF was put in timeout. I thought I’d trow him a bone. 
 

This morning, Russian MoD official expressing his frustration with anxious Moscow population:

”Chrissakes!, Everybody runs the same military counteroffensives!, it’s up to the boys in the field to execute! Everybody calm!”

[Rimbo 25705]

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russian-partisans-recruit-march-moscow-kremlin-ukraine-war-2023-b977k03g7

Quote

Pro-Ukraine partisans recruiting ‘thousands’ to attack Moscow Members of the Free Russia Legion believe their country is a time bomb, ready to explode into revolution against Putin.

 

[Brisketexan 104226]

4 minutes ago, SaucyJack said:

Well since that  MF was put in timeout. I thought I’d trow him a bone. 
 

This morning, Russian MoD official expressing his frustration with anxious Moscow population:

”Chrissakes!, Everybody runs the same military counteroffensives!, it’s up to the boys in the field to execute! Everybody calm!”

So what you're saying is....the following is the Russian plan for meeting the counter-offensive, there's an epidemic of bad combined arm tactics, and the Ukrainian army just scares Putin to death?

[Grade of D as in David 13253]

27 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So what you're saying is....the following is the Russian plan for meeting the counter-offensive, there's an epidemic of bad combined arm tactics, and the Ukrainian army just scares Putin to death?

Not a good comparison, Putin doesn't have a weapon like Marquise Goodwin.

[Superhero 8699]

50 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

So what you're saying is....the following is the Russian plan for meeting the counter-offensive, there's an epidemic of bad combined arm tactics, and the Ukrainian army just scares Putin to death?

Forever too soon. 

[DDD Dad 14144]

6 hours ago, Nivek said:

Damn capitalization really fucked that sentence.  I was thinking more of Aaron Franklin products than a Susanna Hoffs-obsessed lawyer.   

[BamaATL 16592]

10 minutes ago, Superhero said:

Forever too soon. 

I'm confused, are you saying if Prigozhin gets hurt they have no chance?  

[Nivek 16771]

Lets not forget the general moral of the Ukrainian people.  I would imagine they are very similar to the British during WW2. While moral is very high now, High Unemployment, debt, bomb raids take their toll on the people. 

Facing extermination by Russia, I imagine their resolve is pretty fucking iron. Being without smart phone access or running out of pepridge farm chess cookies isn’t going to break them.

[The Dog 43715]

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Russian state TV is telling its citizens that our Senator Lindsey Graham got high with Zelensky.

This is like a fucking Borat skit come to life.  "knowing their ways"

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Also, she's either completely covered up or rude.

 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

They admit on Russian state TV that they can't assassinate a sitting US Senator, but then talking about killing non-Russian civilians who say things they don't like.  Totally normal.

Well, the head or RT.com....

 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Putin is trying to calm things down

 

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Phillips O'Brien went back through his twitter to find the first time he started talking about Bakhmut - 20 May 2022.

 

[BamaATL 16592]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Russian state TV is telling its citizens that our Senator Lindsey Graham got high with Zelensky.

This is like a fucking Borat skit come to life.  "knowing their ways"

Based on this, I think its high time we deploy our secret weapon to Ukraine, Afroman.  

[atomheartbevo 89304]

Interesting article about Ukrainian innovation - basically the Ukrainians are extremely flexible and willing to try anything, and their large IT industry is helping drive the technical innovation.

https://kyivindependent.com/fighting-smarter-ukraines-transformation-into-military-innovator/

Meanwhile, let's talk about maps....

https://twitter.com/noclador/status/1663988798823211009

 

[Born to Run 6420]

Based on this, I think its high time we deploy our secret weapon to Ukraine, Afroman.  

Are you suggesting a Colt 45 and two Zig Zags is all we need? Probably true.

[Rimbo 25705]

Seems like news is slowing down today. Calm before a storm...

[atomheartbevo 89304]

4 minutes ago, Rimbo said:

Seems like news is slowing down today. Calm before a storm...

I'd be curious to know the body count of the past 10 days or so - seems like they've had some high-profile missile strikes that have hit some key Russian formations/troop areas.