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Русский корабль - иди нахуй


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1 hour ago, Captainant said:

FWIW, Manafort had been operating in Ukraine since 2004 and working exclusively with oligarchs that bought up all the privatized shares of the formerly nationalized industries. None of what he was doing was all that dogmatic or principled - just helping oligarchs become powerful and then skimming tens of millions of dollars off of them, as well as trading on their influence.

Check out the Behind the Bastards episodes on Manafort if you're into that sort of thing

True, but Ukraine's corruption goes back to the early 90's, well before Manafort got on.  The train to the dump was already chugging and he stepped on.  But he's like .01% of Ukraine's blame problems  - just like Lil' Joe took advantage of the corruption there in more recent years.

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1 hour ago, MissingInAction said:

I'd expect our hillbillies to put up a fight.

Not just them. 

Just want to thank the group for some damn fine analysis.  Mine is quite simple and I do not know the Ukraine's internal BS like you all do. Putin has to do something. You don't move that much support gear for fun. It is expensive and pisses off people. There are enough Russian's to take the country but not enough to control it. That is a big deal. The Ukranian's can give them a bloody nose for sure, but not hold them off due to air power and the amount of artillery the Russians have in theater. Putin goes in, be it all in or limited, he goes. It will be his downfall. 

On a global level, prepare for higher fuel and food costs. Prepare for our network to get hit hard through cyber BS. 

Enjoy the super bowl. 

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6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Not just them. 

Just want to thank the group for some damn fine analysis.  Mine is quite simple and I do not know the Ukraine's internal BS like you all do. Putin has to do something. You don't move that much support gear for fun. It is expensive and pisses off people. There are enough Russian's to take the country but not enough to control it. That is a big deal. The Ukranian's can give them a bloody nose for sure, but not hold them off due to air power and the amount of artillery the Russians have in theater. Putin goes in, be it all in or limited, he goes. It will be his downfall. 

On a global level, prepare for higher fuel and food costs. Prepare for our network to get hit hard through cyber BS. 

Enjoy the super bowl. 

Damn too bad SoFi stadium has a roof over it.  If I were Putin I would launch airstrikes and artillery just as the flyover happens.

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4 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Interesting person to follow. He links to all the satellite information and other sources. I know someone asked for a twitter lead. Lots out there, but this is a good single source to follow and let him link you to the others. 

 

 

Doesn't that open them up for invasion on a different front? 

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3 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

he wants to be diplomatic and protect this site from Ruskie hackers.

Seriously, only other front would be China or us coming from the Pacific. 

 

por que no los dos? Seriously it would be in the best interest of US and China both if Russia would go away.

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23 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Interesting person to follow. He links to all the satellite information and other sources. I know someone asked for a twitter lead. Lots out there, but this is a good single source to follow and let him link you to the others. 

 

 

Dude seems really knowledgeable, matter-of-fact, and not in the least bit concerned with self-promotion or notoriety. Many thanks for the recommendation.

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So, back to the diplomatic front for a bit here. Kyiv recently submitted a request via an OSCE confidence building and risk management mechanism for Russia to explain its military build up. Whatever Russia told them, it didn’t satisfy them. They have joined with Latvia and Lithuania to call for an emergency OSCE meeting for both Russia and Belarus to explain the military buildup. (Lukashenka told the Balts that the “exercise” is too small to trigger the OSCE requirement to respond). This emergency meeting request should be understood as a last ditch effort to get Putin to commit not to invade. 
 

Second— I will spoiler the longcat post but the readout from the Russian foreign ministry on Putin’s POTUS call should be read in its entirety, closely.  The Russians put out long readouts.  
 

- They use scare quotes and words like “hysteria” around talk of attack or invasion. A quick reader will come away thinking Russia denied the possibility. A careful reader will note what is missing: “Our President assured President Biden that an invasion of/attack on Ukraine is not under consideration.”

- Lots of talk about concerns that Ukraine will escalate and dissatisfaction with the security architecture in Europe.  
 

Quote

🎙 #Briefing by Aide to the President Yury Ushakov following a telephone conversation between Vladimir #Putin and Joseph #Biden 🇷🇺📞🇺🇸

Yury #Ushakov briefed media representatives on the telephone conversation between President of Russia Vladimir Putin and President of the United States Joseph Biden.

* * *

💬 Aide to the President Yury Ushakov: Good evening!

A telephone conversation between the President of the #RussianFederation and the President of the #UnitedStates has just concluded. It lasted for just over an hour. The call was as a follow-up of sorts on the December 7 videoconference talks between Russia and the United States, and the December 30 telephone conversation. It was during those conversations that the two leaders began discussing one of the most important issues on the current agenda, namely long-term legally binding security guarantees for the Russian Federation.

Today’s conversation was held, as everyone knows, against the backdrop of an unprecedented push by #US official to whip up hysteria over the allegedly imminent Russian invasion of Ukraine. Incidentally, in requesting that the telephone conversation be held today, instead of on Monday as it was previously scheduled, the US cited the likelihood of this catastrophic scenario.

Similar requests for urgent conversations have been filed by other members of the Biden administration, who talked over the phone with many of their Russian colleagues yesterday and today. It was thus a coordinated effort to pump out hysteria about the “invasion,” which is now at its height.

Coming back to the conversation between the presidents of #Russia and the United States, it can be said that the tone was rather balanced and business-like. President Biden even talked about the experience of his predecessors who made every effort during the Cold War to avoid the catastrophe of a serious military conflict between our two nations.

He said that our two great nations were still rivals but that we must take every effort to maintain stability and security in the world. He also stressed that every effort needs to be taken to avoid the worst scenario as concerns the current situation around #Ukraine. He said he was a proponent of diplomacy and laid down a whole raft of proposals that he believes reflect many of Russia’s concerns and initiatives that we outlined and relayed to the US and NATO in the draft documents on security guarantees.

I want to note straight away that the Russian President responded by saying that Russia was going to carefully study President Biden’s proposals and would certainly pay due consideration to them. He made clear, however, that these proposals did not really address the central, key elements of Russia’s initiatives either with regards to non-expansion of #NATO, or non-deployment of strike weapons systems on Ukrainian territory, or NATO’s return to the positions that existed at the moment of signing the 1997 Russia-NATO Founding Act. To these items, we have received no meaningful response.

Many of the suggestions that were put forward during the conversation were part of the January 26 response to Russia’s proposals relayed to us by Washington and NATO.

Speaking about the tense situation around Ukraine, Joseph Biden made a mention, as might have been expected, of the possibility of harsh sanctions against Russia, but they were not the focus of his rather lengthy conversation with the Russian leader.

Our #President detailed Russia’s principled approaches and explained why the time has come to resolve issues that have a direct bearing on the Russian national security.

The President of Russia presented his overview of the history of relations between the US, NATO and Russia that has led to this crisis. He said, in particular, that the Soviet Union and the United States were certainly adversaries during the Cold War; and that although we were friends of sorts in the 1990s, even then the US and NATO did not pursue a constructive policy towards Russia. That was the time of NATO’s practical expansion of its operations, its admitting new members and moving closer towards Russian borders.

This was followed by the stark worsening of the Euro-Atlantic security architecture in the 2000s, which has had a direct impact on the security of our country.

What else did I want to note? The Russian President went into equally great detail about the Ukrainian Government’s destructive policies aimed at sabotaging the #MinskAgreements, which have been ongoing for the previous eight years. He noted that the West did not exert enough pressure on Kiev to follow through on its commitments under the agreements. 

The President of Russia also highlighted the dangers of a militarized Ukraine and the on-going injections of cutting-edge weaponry, which the West has been steadfastly involved in and which has been encouraging the Ukrainian military to stage provocations both against Donbass and Crimea.

In light of Ukraine’s doctrinal policy which explicitly states its goal to retake #Crimea by force, the hypothetical admission of that country to NATO is fraught with dire consequences, including direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO, at the very least due the US’ recognition of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty as being sacred. This is what our President spoke in detail about during the conversation.

Overall, the presidents agreed that #Moscow was going to carefully study the proposals put forward by President Biden and where possible, will take them into consideration in its response to the position documents drafted by the US and NATO. We will make this response known to our partners and members of the general public in the nearest future.

Building on Joseph Biden’s desire for the US-Russia relations to be based on mutual respect, the presidents agreed to continue contacts on various levels on all the issues discussed during the telephone conversation today. I would like to stress once again that overall, the conversation was business-like.

* * *

#Question: Can you tell us if today’s conversation has shed any light on US motives? If President Biden knew that he was going to talk to Vladimir Putin on the phone, why did he announce a Russian “invasion” on February 16, which shook the entire world?

Is it possible that after the two heads of state have spoken today, President Biden can still set a new date for this “invasion” for tomorrow or the day after? Such a statement will only provoke further concerns globally. How are we supposed to interpret this?

💬 Yury Ushakov: You know very well that tensions have been stoked over our troops’ movements on Russian territory, albeit close to the Ukrainian border, for several months now. I agree completely that the whole situation has reached absurd levels in the past days and hours. But here are the facts: the US is stoking hysteria over our so-called planned Russian “invasion,” giving even the dates of this “invasion,” all the while working jointly with its allies to build up Ukraine’s “military muscle.” 

Significant funds are being allocated to modernize the Ukrainian armed forces, and more military instructors are being sent there. So, the “invasion” chorus is a backdrop to create opportunities for possible provocations by the Ukrainian military. This is our view of the situation.

Question: Is it possible the US will continue to act like this?

💬 Yury Ushakov: I don’t know. It’s the US that chooses to go down this road. We have made our thoughts known and have said repeatedly that we can’t understand why mass media have been feeding false narratives about Russia’s intentions.

Question: Did the presidents discuss the incident with the US submarine in Russia’s territorial waters?

💬 Yury Ushakov: No, they didn’t. We are aware of the incident, and necessary actions are being taken by the Defence Ministry, but the subject was not raised during the conversation between the two presidents.

Question: Can you tell us if Russia made clear what it would do in the event Ukraine’s Government decided to provoke conflict in Donbass? What will Russia do then?

💬 Yury Ushakov: We emphasised, firstly, that we were going to consider the proposals put forward by President Biden today, even though they overlap to a great deal with the US and NATO responses we have already received. We also indicated that an interdepartmental discussion of possible responses was nearly finished. The results will be made public in the near future.

Question: The US has already shared its views on the telephone call. In particular, they continue to claim that they still don’t know if any actions follow, and what President Putin’s plans are for a potential “invasion” of Ukraine.

💬 Yury Ushakov: To be honest, I haven’t seen the American interpretation of the call yet. However, I have shared with you what we had to say on the subject.

Question: Are there any discussions scheduled in the coming weeks?

💬 Yury Ushakov: Like I said, the presidents agreed that discussions on various issues should continue. In particular we will discuss the issues that Joseph Biden raised today. Naturally, we will give priority to addressing those concerns that were clearly and publicly stated in the two draft documents.

🔗 http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/67761

#InternationalRelations Embassy of Russia in the USA / Посольство России в США

 

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

por que no los dos? Seriously it would be in the best interest of US and China both if Russia would go away.

Sure, let's just get the whole gang involved. Russia goes into Ukraine, China goes after Taiwan and whatever it can get its hands on in Russa, India says, "no shit?" and takes Kashmir, Iran goes after Iraq, and Egypt, UAE, KSA, and the various remaining factions left in Syria go after Israel.

Kidding. Kind of. Because once the US has to dedicate the majority of its forces to one theater, every piece of contested land out there starts looking pretty tempting.

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Just now, Eastwood said:

Sure, let's just get the whole gang involved. Russia goes into Ukraine, China goes after Taiwan and whatever it can get its hands on in Russa, India says, "no shit?" and takes Kashmir, Iran goes after Iraq, and Egypt, UAE, KSA, and the various remaining factions left in Syria go after Israel.

Kidding. Kind of. Because once the US has to dedicate the majority of its forces to one theater, every piece of contested land out there starts looking pretty tempting.

Could we maybe make a swipe at baja while this is all going down?

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For those who asked how Putin can climb down, this OSCE meeting would be a way.  Russia COULD show up, announce that everyone is being nervous nellies and explain the exercises and how long they will go on. Russia could show up, justify their presence by pointing to alleged Ukrainian military buildups near Donbas, and ask for Ukraine to explain themselves and start talks on a way to “build confidence” on both sides(revisit Minsk, timetable to draw down on both sides, etc.) and effectively punt and open the door to climb off the ledge.  Russia could also do a combination of those things.  I’m not super optimistic, but invoking this mechanism is a very much Ukraine trying to get Russia to push on a slightly cracked door. 
 

One other thing to note about this whole crisis— most of Russia’s demands are all directed at the U.S. and NATO and all of his coercion and threats are at Ukraine.  And on all these calls and meetings, there hasn’t been an explicit LINKAGE between NATO and U.S. actions and threats to Ukraine, but there hasn’t been an explicit de-linkage on their side either.

And that’s a bad sign because diplomats love to explicitly say things are not linked.  Maybe the most favored expression in negotiations.  It’s a little bit of diplomatic kayfabe to allow for face saving and gracious exits.  The more things are explicitly delinked the more they are linked silently.  Everyone knows good and well that they are linked BUT— you still have a gracious way to say “we agreed on these separate issues, we don’t agree on this last issue.  But we will keep working on that while moving ahead with what we can agree on— they don’t depend on each other, and there’s no reason to let these unrelated issues trip us up.”

The fact that Russia won’t delink massive security architecture overhauls to its buildup near Ukraine, explicitly and often, is a terrible sign.

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Could be, but the OSCE is toothless. I worked alongside them in Bosnia after Dayton and the Serbs would just laugh at them. And that was with 60K+ NATO Troops running around the country. Putin knows the OSCE is BS and won't care what they say. I still think he goes in just to show other nations he can and will. Think Estonia. The only way he backs off is if internal fears/pressure emerge. I don't see that happening. 

One thing going to the discussion about other areas kicking off is I would watch the Caucus closely. Dagestanis have a long memory and would love to see them rise up, even if they are crazy bastages. Another concern is the rise of the Slavic image in the balkans. Lot of shit is going on in Bosnia that no one is paying attention too. Serbs marching across their areas knowing the EU/NATO won't do shit would be a possible development. We talk about the Ukraine, but this would have a ripple impact across many areas as noted above. Guess I am getting a 12 pack tonight and busting out my laminated world map. Anyone up for a game of Risk? 

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6 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Could be, but the OSCE is toothless. I worked alongside them in Bosnia after Dayton and the Serbs would just laugh at them. And that was with 60K+ NATO Troops running around the country. Putin knows the OSCE is BS and won't care what they say. I still think he goes in just to show other nations he can and will. Think Estonia. The only way he backs off is if internal fears/pressure emerge. I don't see that happening. 

One thing going to the discussion about other areas kicking off is I would watch the Caucus closely. Dagestanis have a long memory and would love to see them rise up, even if they are crazy bastages. Another concern is the rise of the Slavic image in the balkans. Lot of shit is going on in Bosnia that no one is paying attention too. Serbs marching across their areas knowing the EU/NATO won't do shit would be a possible development. We talk about the Ukraine, but this would have a ripple impact across many areas as noted above. Guess I am getting a 12 pack tonight and busting out my laminated world map. Anyone up for a game of Risk? 

Oh, OSCE statements are toothless and as a group it’s all just jaw-jaw.  But it is a venue where Russia likes to play and Ukraine has offered them a chance to go there and sling barbs and grievances instead of rockets.  Again, it’s an off-ramp they could take and a forum where they could even wring some symbolic concessions out of Ukraine vis-a-vis the “separatist” regions to justify the climb down.

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1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The idea is that NATO has never stated that a country couldn’t become a member. Ukraine would be the first.

There’s also the fact that Russia pinky promised in 1994 to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  In exchange, Ukraine gives up a security guarantee of nuclear weapons. We see how that worked out, why would we think that by giving up an even weaker security guarantee (maybe, one day NATO) that it would forestall more aggression? 
 

Caving on this point might end the current crisis sort of, but my reading of Putin’s intents  is that further aggression against Ukraine in inevitable regardless of what the Alliance does and the only change of course would happen via a sea change inside of Russia itself. 

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5 minutes ago, 956 Worldwide said:

There’s also the fact that Russia pinky promised in 1994 to respect the territorial integrity of Ukraine.  In exchange, Ukraine gives up a security guarantee of nuclear weapons. We see how that worked out, why would we think that by giving up an even weaker security guarantee (maybe, one day NATO) that it would forestall more aggression? 
 

Caving on this point might end the current crisis sort of, but my reading of Putin’s intents  is that further aggression against Ukraine in inevitable regardless of what the Alliance does and the only change of course would happen via a sea change inside of Russia itself. 

It’s also fairly disingenuous to say that the potential of Ukraine’s nato membership is the reason behind this. Two other NATO countries already border Russia. Four if you count the NATO countries that border the Russian exclave Kaliningrad.

and if Ukraine becomes a Russian puppet state, then Poland effectively borders Russia via Ukraine.

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30 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Doubt he goes. Imagine though if Putin invited him to Moscow and launched the invasion while he was there. That would be epic 

 

When I was detailed to the AIPAC summit ( pretty much standing around with thumb up my ass)in Hawaii.  I had a discussion about such a scenario with a bored mid level officer.  He said when the president moves everyone thinks it is secret service.  He said the behind the scenes with military assets kind of assures the host country doesn't do anything stupid.  It would be pretty fucking rad though.  Putin has Biden at some state dinner and says if you excuse me for a moment I have something to attend to and just walks out.  The panic would be at level 1 billion.

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1 hour ago, InkaUtexas said:

Nah, lets go take Cuba. Baseball, rum and hot women. From there jump and take Venezuela. Perhpaps with an expansion market the MLB owners would end the lock out. 

Follow that up with Lebanon and Morocco and I’m in. 
Partying in Beirut is mandatory for anyone’s bucket list.

And Moroccan beaches (looking at you Agadir), cuisine (sheep’s head sammich) and women is worth taking out a monarchy. 

Edited by JerrysJheriCurl
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9 hours ago, 956 Worldwide said:

1. He’s pulled Ukrainian defenses into maximum readiness.  Russian planners know exactly what they are up against and they’re keeping Ukrainian personnel exhausted and stressed.

2. He has played the Alliance into tipping its cards.  He now knows that NATO won’t intervene. He’s gotten a sense how how much arms and reinforcements can get to Ukraine.  

Counterpoint:

1. He's stressed Russian forces just as much, if not more.  Some of those units are tough to deploy and not used to this.  These aren't infantry you can throw in the back of a truck and haul up to the border and put them in tents.  A lot of that equipment is high maintenance, they are deployed away from their bases, in the winter.

2. NATO was never going to intervene.  He also does not know how much NATO will send  in terms of arms/training if he invades, but he knows it will be a lot.  NATO will not pass up the chance to fund an insurgency against Russia in its own backyard.

Additionally: He is unifying a big chunk of Ukraine.  A lot of Russians talk about how the Ukrainians are not that different from Russia, but he's providing something for a lot of Ukrainians to coalesce around.

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Moving all of that infantry to near Ukraine is interesting.  If this goes south and you get riots/protests in Russian cities, they will have to make some interesting decisions. I'm guessing they'll be calling up their reserve units. I know the civilian police agency is extremely large, but most of it is like any similar organization - much of the personnel will be on the back-end, and not the ones in the streets with riot shields and batons.

 

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  • immamac changed the title to Russia declares independence on behalf of the Ukraine so it can protect the Ukraine or something like that
  • immamac changed the title to Русский корабль - иди нахуй

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