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Jimbo 2021: Meemaw's Got a Brand New Bag


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Just now, ASDFASDF said:

No way in hell you can convince me they're winning either of those big four games. They're all top 10 teams, three of them are away, and the other is Bama. They're definite losses. 

Toss-up was my lazy way of saying they were the "middle ground" games. Yes, they will be heavily favored, but they're more likely to lose to Arky or Ole Miss than they are to beat any of the big four. 

I get where he's coming from. I mean, aggy going 9-3 isn't completely impossible. But I still think that 8-4 is their more likely ceiling.  Even if aggy miraculously pulled off a win in one of their four tough games, it's an odd-numbered year, which means Gus Malzahn is probably going to pull a ten win season out to his ass by duct-taping an elite offense together somehow.

But 9-3 isn't completely outside the realm of possibility. Ole Miss and Arky are BAD and there's absolutely nothing special about MSU or USCe. LSU, Bama, UGA, and Clemson are all really good to great teams, but key injuries happen. Throw in aggy's cupcakes, and I could see it happening under the right circumstances.

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A lot of aggy’s record will depend on Auburn, Miss st, and SCe. Those programs could be 6-6 or 7-5 level teams or one or more could be more like a 9-3 team. 

If all three of those suck, then 9-3 is absolutely a possibility. If one or two of them put it all together and are good teams, then 8-4 is probably their ceiling, but as of now, when it’s hard to tell, 9-3 is aggy’s ceiling. 

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4 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

A lot of aggy’s record will depend on Auburn, Miss st, and SCe. Those programs could be 6-6 or 7-5 level teams or one or more could be more like a 9-3 team. 

If all three of those suck, then 9-3 is absolutely a possibility. If one or two of them put it all together and are good teams, then 8-4 is probably their ceiling, but as of now, when it’s hard to tell, 9-3 is aggy’s ceiling. 

Auburn and South Carolina have really tough schedules. They could have really good teams but still finish with poor records. 

I think A&M ends up at 7-5. None of the four tough games set up well for them; the LSU game in particular is brutal, playing probably at night in Baton Rouge a week after traveling to Georgia, and they'll be looking for revenge after getting robbed ~five times resulting in Dame Craig running up to their sidelines to talk shit and Jimbo's methhead nephew punching a 75 year old LSU QC coach in the face. 

Then I think they lose one of the rest. Probably Auburn, but maybe MSU. Or maybe Aggie Chad wins one. They'll have three weeks to prepare for Sakerlina though, so I think they win their sixth in a row against them. 

Maybe the stars align and they win one of the four, but I think A&M is taking a step back after losing their best three players on offense, 5 of their starting from 6 on defense, and their two starting safeties. They need Mond to take an Ehlinger type of step forward to reach the season they're hoping for, that usually doesn't happen. 

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7 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

A lot of aggy’s record will depend on Auburn, Miss st, and SCe. Those programs could be 6-6 or 7-5 level teams or one or more could be more like a 9-3 team. 

If all three of those suck, then 9-3 is absolutely a possibility. If one or two of them put it all together and are good teams, then 8-4 is probably their ceiling, but as of now, when it’s hard to tell, 9-3 is aggy’s ceiling. 

How do trap games figure in? @ Ol’ Miss the week after Bama and USCe the week before UGA. 

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4 minutes ago, ShaggyBevo RIP said:

How do trap games figure in? @ Ol’ Miss the week after Bama and USCe the week before UGA. 

They have three weeks to prepare for USCjr, but I guess that could be a trap game with @ Georgia and @ LSU the two weeks after 

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32 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lol. 7-5 is not the ceiling. There’s no such thing as a definite loss, especially when you try to group 4 games together as definite losses.If you give aggy even just a 13% chance to win each of their 4 tough games, then there’s a more than likely chance they win 1 of those 4 and other than those, they have a charmin soft schedule. 

Arkansas and Ole Miss are certainly not toss ups. aggy will and should be heavily favored in those games.

their record will be between 6-6 and 9-3 with the two middle options being the heavy, heavy favorites to be the outcome. 

Wrong try studying probability again. 

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25 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lol. 7-5 is not the ceiling. There’s no such thing as a definite loss, especially when you try to group 4 games together as definite losses.If you give aggy even just a 13% chance to win each of their 4 tough games, then there’s a more than likely chance they win 1 of those 4 and other than those, they have a charmin soft schedule. 

Arkansas and Ole Miss are certainly not toss ups. aggy will and should be heavily favored in those games.

their record will be between 6-6 and 9-3 with the two middle options being the heavy, heavy favorites to be the outcome. 

 

16 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

It’s becoming pretty clear you don’t understand how multiple factor probabilities work.

There are not higher odds they lose to Arky than win one of the 4. 

Your math is wrong. If you're assigning a 13% likelihood of winning to each game, the likelihood of a loss is 87%. 

The probability that they will lose all 4 games is .87^4, which is > 50%, so there's a less than likely chance they win 1 of those 4. You don't just add 13% together four times. So I kind of wonder if you understand how probabilities work.

You're gonna have to bump the chances of winning each game up to at least 16% if you want to use that line.

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1 minute ago, TommyGufano said:

 

Your math is wrong. If you're assigning a 13% likelihood of winning to each game, the likelihood of a loss is 87%. 

The probability that they will lose all 4 games is .87^4, which is > 50%, so there's a less than likely chance they win 1 of those 4. You don't just add 13% together four times. So I kind of wonder if you understand how probabilities work.

You're gonna have to bump the chances of winning each game up to at least 16% if you want to use that line.

Lulz. Good call. I was thinking I screwed that up after I wrote it.

 Regardless, I’d say they average a better than 16% chance of winning against each of those opponents, so the point still stands.

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6 minutes ago, Fud said:

They have three weeks to prepare for USCjr, but I guess that could be a trap game with @ Georgia and @ LSU the two weeks after 

South Carolina has home games against Vandy and Appalachian State the 2 weeks before aggy, but aggy is still in a better position with this having a BYE plus 1 of the cupcakes.

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When I was a youth, I became an avid Penthouse Forum reader. I was at least 17 before I realized that maybe every dude didn't bang six nurses at the hospital or get picked-up by seven horny stepsisters while hitchhiking. At what age does the average Liucci, et al, subscriber realize that Penthouse provided much better fictional whacking material for a better price?

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11 minutes ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lulz. Good call. I was thinking I screwed that up after I wrote it.

 Regardless, I’d say they average a better than 16% chance of winning against each of those opponents, so the point still stands.

Burt, we all have our bad days. My hope for you is that maybe you push away from the keyboard for the evening and start again tomorrow. This thread has been grim reading the past few pages and it was capped by your rejection of basic statistical principles as you taunted another poster for exactly that. 

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1 hour ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lol. 7-5 is not the ceiling. There’s no such thing as a definite loss, especially when you try to group 4 games together as definite losses.If you give aggy even just a 13% chance to win each of their 4 tough games, then there’s a more than likely chance they win 1 of those 4 and other than those, they have a charmin soft schedule. 

 Arkansas and Ole Miss are certainly not toss ups. aggy will and should be heavily favored in those games.

 their record will be between 6-6 and 9-3 with the two middle options being the heavy, heavy favorites to be the outcome. 

A man who understands the Gaussian distribution

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I want to play.

If Georgia or alabama lose more than 1 game they will have done very badly relative to their schedule. The talent disparity in the sec is getting to the point that it will require a major upset for Georgia or alabama to lose to anyone else in the league.
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14 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

Lol. 7-5 is not the ceiling. There’s no such thing as a definite loss, especially when you try to group 4 games together as definite losses.If you give aggy even just a 13% chance to win each of their 4 tough games, then there’s a more than likely chance they win 1 of those 4 and other than those, they have a charmin soft schedule. 

Arkansas and Ole Miss are certainly not toss ups. aggy will and should be heavily favored in those games.

their record will be between 6-6 and 9-3 with the two middle options being the heavy, heavy favorites to be the outcome. 

 

14 hours ago, Burt Macklin said:

It’s becoming pretty clear you don’t understand how multiple factor probabilities work.

There are not higher odds they lose to Arky than win one of the 4. 

Take a lap, @Burt Macklin

Edited by DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt
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When the threads rationalizing why you’re not fucked because you’re fucked start showing up for a fanbase’s board’s, dark days are coming. We’ve been there and seen it. It’s truly gratifying to see ATM fans so hell bent on nothing failing them so long as ol’Jimbo is at the helm. Don’t care, got Jimbo. Indeed you do, fellas. Good luck with aaaaaaaallllll that. 

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6 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Milroe v Stowers is gonna be great to follow over the next 5-6 years. 

From what I can tell Jimbo is literally the only person that has Stowers above Milroe. If that’s even true. 

Have you watched Stowers’ film?   He’s got a cannon, seems to have good touch, and can run like a deer.  If he has anything between the ears then there’s no reason he can’t be a great player. Based on pure tools I can see him being rated higher.  Would I trade Milroe for him?   Fuck no. 

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4 hours ago, GRHorn said:

Milroe v Stowers is gonna be great to follow over the next 5-6 years. 

From what I can tell Jimbo is literally the only person that has Stowers above Milroe. If that’s even true. 

Pretty sure Jimbo is trying to take D. Davis as well. He knows Stowers is a project at best 

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On 8/2/2019 at 1:49 PM, sushihorn said:

Wait.  You mean pass rushing with 4 cubes and trying to cover with 4-5 safeties isn't a formula for success against the spread?

could you imagine the hilarity that would ensue should the offensive or defensive lines get diarrhea from a team meal? With those lard assed whales there would be some rushing and blocking going on all right, rushing to get to the bathroom and blocking the stalls.

Edited by SHOOTER12
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