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DT: COVID-19 - NO POLITICS ALLOWED

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2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Did you learn nothing from willy wonka?

Truth be told it was really the Oompa Loompas passing out the deep knowledge.  Willy was just riding along on a good shroom buzz.

Edited by Onboard 2.0

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8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

See the COVID medical thread for teh most recent iteration.  Raydog was also pimping that shit here before he slimed off. 

So there is a No Politic, Texas, Political and a Medical COVID thread?

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Just now, Hate said:

Mine was tongue in cheek, but I’m sure there are some bad actors in the world that are taking notes.

They damned well should be.  Shit, it doesn't much matter what skunk they toss in the room -- we've proven pretty definitively that our collective playbook for any unexpected crisis is now "shoot self in dick.....then reload."  We've never been more vulnerable to shenanigans, because we've shown ourselves to be completely vulnerable to shenanigans.

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2 minutes ago, MoJames said:

So there is a No Politic, Texas, Political and a Medical COVID thread?

Yep.  Plus football, travel, food, and business ones. I am probably still missing a few. 

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So there is a No Politic, Texas, Political and a Medical COVID thread?
Yes but all three are no politics including the no politics, which counts double.

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2 hours ago, Hate said:

Mine was tongue in cheek, but I’m sure there are some bad actors in the world that are taking notes.

If they had that kind of sophistication, they would have been doing something with ebola already, since they already have access to it, and have for years.

It's far cheaper and easier for them to make a dirty bomb and blow it up in a port somewhere.

Actually, if they wanted to stir shit up with covid, they could  go online and cast doubt about any vaccines that actually make it out.  Wouldn't cost them anything, other than their burner social media accounts.    And plenty of idiots will gladly (and unknowingly) help them.

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https://fox17.com/news/local/covid-19-emails-from-nashville-mayors-office-show-disturbing-revelation

COVID-19 emails from Nashville mayor's office show disturbing revelation

The coronavirus cases on lower Broadway may have been so low that the mayor’s office and the Metro Health Department decided to keep it secret.

Emails between the mayor’s senior advisor and the health department reveal only a partial picture. But what they reveal is disturbing.

The discussion involves the low number of coronavirus cases emerging from bars and restaurants and how to handle that.

And most disturbingly, how to keep it from the public.

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9 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

https://fox17.com/news/local/covid-19-emails-from-nashville-mayors-office-show-disturbing-revelation

COVID-19 emails from Nashville mayor's office show disturbing revelation

The coronavirus cases on lower Broadway may have been so low that the mayor’s office and the Metro Health Department decided to keep it secret.

Emails between the mayor’s senior advisor and the health department reveal only a partial picture. But what they reveal is disturbing.

The discussion involves the low number of coronavirus cases emerging from bars and restaurants and how to handle that.

And most disturbingly, how to keep it from the public.

This and things like the Los Angeles Chief Medical Officer stating on a conference call that no restrictions will be lifted until after the election really add fuel to the fire of all of the CV19 conspiracy folks.

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On 9/15/2020 at 3:22 PM, Brisketexan said:

yeesh.....was hoping for sooner......all of this shit is "sometime in 2021."  I know, patience grasshopper.  But I'm out of fucking patience.  I'm an American.  I want it now.

Mr Vain?

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1 hour ago, BrazilHorn said:

This and things like the Los Angeles Chief Medical Officer stating on a conference call that no restrictions will be lifted until after the election really add fuel to the fire of all of the CV19 conspiracy folks.

Science!!

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This and things like the Los Angeles Chief Medical Officer stating on a conference call that no restrictions will be lifted until after the election really add fuel to the fire of all of the CV19 conspiracy folks.

Is that the really scary looking lady?

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14 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:


Is that the really scary looking lady?

Yes. She was recorded on a call with LA School Officials saying a couple of times that no restrictions would be lifted until post-election. Just an oddly specific date and one that lets those that want to tinfoil shit up do so.

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Hospitalizations continue to fall. Lowest we've been since May. Doesn't look like there's a Labor Day spike incoming.

My only remaining concern is whether or not we have the discipline to keep mask orders in place. Someone on my neighborhood Facebook group said Comal County actually lifted the facemask mandate. Not sure if it's true or not, but either way people are going to start to get lax. 

If you could guarantee me that mask mandates would stay in place and be enforced, I'd say open everything back up. All of it. I'm just not sure that's realistic. Seems there are a lot of stupid people out there that can't wait to rip the oppressive thin piece of fabric off their face despite there being mountains of evidence that they help tremendously with Covid. I feel like in certain areas when things open back up, that's going to signal to people that they can stop wearing masks and being considerate. 

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19 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Yes. She was recorded on a call with LA School Officials saying a couple of times that no restrictions would be lifted until post-election. Just an oddly specific date and one that lets those that want to tinfoil shit up do so.

I mean, I don't think you need to "tinfoil up" to understand that she has a clear agenda, one that is NOT driven by public health or safety concerns.  That's not an "oddly specific date."  It's a "deliberately specific" date.

Overall I agree with you, this type of thing gives the hoaxers and deniers fuel, and we need the very real public health concerns to remain credible.

But at the same time, it's important to acknowledge that there are agenda-driven agents out there acting for political purposes that have nothing to do with public health.  Ignoring that this is occurring, is merely the flipside of the same problem brought on by the hoaxers and denial crowd.

 

Edited by utee94

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1 minute ago, utee94 said:

I mean, I don't think you need to "tinfoil up" to understand that she has a clear agenda, one that is NOT driven by public health or safety concerns.  

Overall I agree with you, this type of thing gives the hoaxers and deniers fuel.

But at the same time, it's important to acknowledge that there are agenda-driven agents out there acting for political purposes that have nothing to do with public health.  Ignoring that this is occurring, is merely the flipside of the same problem brought on by the hoaxers and denial crowd.

 

Yep, kinda like how the Nashville mayor is having a live press conference right now re-opening bars to 50% capacity, allowing HS Football to start, and the Titans to have fans after those leaked emails about how there was no real noticeable infection tracing to bars and they were trying to keep it from getting out.  Just completely disingenuous.  

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2 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Hospitalizations continue to fall. Lowest we've been since May. Doesn't look like there's a Labor Day spike incoming.

My only remaining concern is whether or not we have the discipline to keep mask orders in place. Someone on my neighborhood Facebook group said Comal County actually lifted the facemask mandate. Not sure if it's true or not, but either way people are going to start to get lax. 

If you could guarantee me that mask mandates would stay in place and be enforced, I'd say open everything back up. All of it. I'm just not sure that's realistic. Seems there are a lot of stupid people out there that can't wait to rip the oppressive thin piece of fabric off their face despite there being mountains of evidence that they help tremendously with Covid. I feel like in certain areas when things open back up, that's going to signal to people that they can stop wearing masks and being considerate. 

I think what is missing is clear "end game". It started with flattening the curve and not overwhelming hospitals. I think we really have a simple blueprint for that and it is leaving a mask mandate in place and  reducing occupancy levels in bars/restaurants (or any indoor facility where large numbers can congregate).

Now though in many areas flattening the curve seems to be moving towards "full safety" via a vaccine. This is what I believe is enabling the large amount of pushback and frustration with local/state governments.

It is this lack of consistency and no semblance of something we are marching towards that is so annoying. Differing use of "success metrics" across counties/cities/states doesn't help either. Some use a hodgepodge of positivity rate (which is fucking worthless), hospitalizations (good), # of cases per some normalized population count (good), total cases (dumb) etc etc etc. Just no standards and no true end game is what creates this jailbreak that happens once people get a sniff of freedom.

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5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Yep, kinda like how the Nashville mayor is having a live press conference right now re-opening bars to 50% capacity, allowing HS Football to start, and the Titans to have fans after those leaked emails about how there was no real noticeable infection tracing to bars and they were trying to keep it from getting out.  Just completely disingenuous.  

obligatory

 

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8 minutes ago, utee94 said:

I mean, I don't think you need to "tinfoil up" to understand that she has a clear agenda, one that is NOT driven by public health or safety concerns.  That's not an "oddly specific date."  It's a "deliberately specific" date.

Overall I agree with you, this type of thing gives the hoaxers and deniers fuel, and we need the very real public health concerns to remain credible.

But at the same time, it's important to acknowledge that there are agenda-driven agents out there acting for political purposes that have nothing to do with public health.  Ignoring that this is occurring, is merely the flipside of the same problem brought on by the hoaxers and denial crowd.

 

I agree that there is partisanship spilling into public policy across blue/red states/cities etc. Just fucking annoying and absolutely leads to worse outcomes as people get more and more frustrated. The complete lack of an end game here to me is biggest issue. Is it flattening the curve or total vaccination? Goal posts keep moving and it is not due to improved data/scientific findings

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1 minute ago, BrazilHorn said:

I think what is missing is clear "end game". It started with flattening the curve and not overwhelming hospitals. I think we really have a simple blueprint for that and it is leaving a mask mandate in place and  reducing occupancy levels in bars/restaurants (or any indoor facility where large numbers can congregate).

Now though in many areas flattening the curve seems to be moving towards "full safety" via a vaccine. This is what I believe is enabling the large amount of pushback and frustration with local/state governments.

It is this lack of consistency and no semblance of something we are marching towards that is so annoying. Differing use of "success metrics" across counties/cities/states doesn't help either. Some use a hodgepodge of positivity rate (which is fucking worthless), hospitalizations (good), # of cases per some normalized population count (good), total cases (dumb) etc etc etc.

Couldn't agree more. The answer isn't to stay shutdown until a vaccine is found. We have the mechanisms to slow it down if it spikes again. And of course there are politics being played by all sides (/noCR).

Quote

Just no standards and no true end game is what creates this jailbreak that happens once people get a sniff of freedom.

Well, and the fact that a significant portion of our population are petulant, impatient dumbfucks with no consideration for the greater good.

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1 minute ago, Lat22 said:

There is no such thing as "full safety".  Never has been.  Never will be.

stop with the science, please.

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20 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I think what is missing is clear "end game". It started with flattening the curve and not overwhelming hospitals. I think we really have a simple blueprint for that and it is leaving a mask mandate in place and  reducing occupancy levels in bars/restaurants (or any indoor facility where large numbers can congregate).

Now though in many areas flattening the curve seems to be moving towards "full safety" via a vaccine. This is what I believe is enabling the large amount of pushback and frustration with local/state governments.

It is this lack of consistency and no semblance of something we are marching towards that is so annoying. Differing use of "success metrics" across counties/cities/states doesn't help either. Some use a hodgepodge of positivity rate (which is fucking worthless), hospitalizations (good), # of cases per some normalized population count (good), total cases (dumb) etc etc etc. Just no standards and no true end game is what creates this jailbreak that happens once people get a sniff of freedom.

Excellent post.  I wish we could have an honest, uniform (national) conversation about what the end-game is.  Because there are certainly people on either extreme: 1) "I'm not leaving my house till there's a vaccine!" and 2) "Fuck y'all, I can do what I want -- 500 people crammed together with no communist masks!  WOOHOO!"  

The only sane answer is somewhere between those positions.

Understanding that a vaccine is still months away, what is the interim "end game?"

18 minutes ago, Lat22 said:

There is no such thing as "full safety".  Never has been.  Never will be.

Of course there isn't.  That's why we need to have an honest discussion about the level of risk.  I would think that things that should weigh into that calculus should be 1) expected ongoing number of deaths, perhaps using seasonal flu as a benchmark -- if we can manage the virus so that it's not causing materially more deaths than the flu would over a similar period, is that an acceptable risk level? 2) risk to health care workers (are we creating a materially dangerous high risk of infection and bad outcomes for healthcare workers by a particular path?) 3) ability to protect the most vulnerable populations (nursing homes, elderly).  4) ability to conduct important activities -- commerce, schooling -- with reasonable prevention, mitigation, and response measures (including masks and easy testing).

If we can reach a point where we can conduct a lot of activities that we really do need to conduct, while keeping the impact of the virus at a "smolder" instead of "inferno," that would seem to be a good equilibrium until we get a vaccine.

17 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

I agree that there is partisanship spilling into public policy across blue/red states/cities etc. Just fucking annoying and absolutely leads to worse outcomes as people get more and more frustrated. The complete lack of an end game here to me is biggest issue. Is it flattening the curve or total vaccination? Goal posts keep moving and it is not due to improved data/scientific findings

That this has become so politicized is poisonous.  It's just fucking awful.  We should be able to have an honest conversation about goals, and then how to achieve them.

17 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

Couldn't agree more. The answer isn't to stay shutdown until a vaccine is found. We have the mechanisms to slow it down if it spikes again. And of course there are politics being played by all sides (/noCR).

Well, and the fact that a significant portion of our population are petulant, impatient dumbfucks with no consideration for the greater good.

And all of this.  I think there is a path, and good answers, if we could just have an honest and objective conversation -- and yeah, it needs to be national, with regional variations based on local conditions and number of infections.

Edited by Brisketexan

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10 minutes ago, Lat22 said:

There is no such thing as "full safety".  Never has been.  Never will be.

Don't disagree with you at all. Other challenge is I don't even know if the government could force a vaccine on people that opt not to take. Take kids for example. The VAST majority (80% of people <30) are asymptomatic. How do you convince parents to vaccinate their children for this when it A) doesn't kill them B) shows no sign of hurting them (to date).

Counter this with polio which terrified people as it crippled their children (albeit in 1% of infections) but you could see a permanent disabling of an otherwise healthy child. There was a test run on the initial vaccine of 1.6 Million children in Canada to test its efficacy. Think about that in today's world. Never going to happen.

I am really curious to see how the vaccination process is handled. Will be a great case study down the line.

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2 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Don't disagree with you at all. Other challenge is I don't even know if the government could force a vaccine on people that opt not to take. Take kids for example. The VAST majority (80% of people <30) are asymptomatic. How do you convince parents to vaccinate their children for this when it A) doesn't kill them B) shows no sign of hurting them (to date).

Counter this with polio which terrified people as it crippled their children (albeit in 1% of infections) but you could see a permanent disabling of an otherwise healthy child. There was a test run on the initial vaccine of 1.6 Million children in Canada to test its efficacy. Think about that in today's world. Never going to happen.

I am really curious to see how the vaccination process is handled. Will be a great case study down the line.

we got lucky with H1N1.  it targeted the young but it was a weak virus overall even though it did transmit fairly efficiently.  they won't be able to force a vaccine by govt mandate nationwide but I can see schools and private companies trying to require it which will be for the courts to decide, I think.

it will be interesting if public govt buildings will try to stop people from coming in unless you can show a proof of vax card.  I could also see govts trying to get it put on your drivers license/ID Card.

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CNN reporting week over week new cases for each of the 50 states is 23 increasing, 6 decreasing, and the rest holding steady. I don’t know if that’s ok or bad. I would guess that increases off of a small number wouldn’t be that concerning, but shows you have to really dig into the data to understand the appropriate actions.

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9 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

we got lucky with H1N1.  it targeted the young but it was a weak virus overall even though it did transmit fairly efficiently.  they won't be able to force a vaccine by govt mandate nationwide but I can see schools and private companies trying to require it which will be for the courts to decide, I think.

it will be interesting if public govt buildings will try to stop people from coming in unless you can show a proof of vax card.  I could also see govts trying to get it put on your drivers license/ID Card.

The  really interesting thing is going to be international travel -- I suspect that many countries won't admit Americans without proof of vaccination.

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22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I wish we could have an honest, uniform (national) conversation about what the end-game is.

We can't. If it comes from the Federal Government, 50% of the people will oppose it regardless of the merit. Just look at the pushback the vaccine news is getting.

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2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

We can't. If it comes from the Federal Government, 50% of the people will oppose it regardless of the merit. Just look at the pushback the vaccine news is getting.

Yeah....thus my lament.  We are incapable of having an honest, mutual conversation.  It's crippling.

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11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

CNN reporting week over week new cases for each of the 50 states is 23 increasing, 6 decreasing, and the rest holding steady. I don’t know if that’s ok or bad. I would guess that increases off of a small number wouldn’t be that concerning, but shows you have to really dig into the data to understand the appropriate actions.

This. Like Texas, many states are seeing an increase in the number of cases in the 13-25 age group as testing requirements increase for back to school/sports/etc.

This is the lowest risk group, so I would say we have been successful in flattening the curve and reopening the schools since the resulting hospitalizations have been very low. 

But it's easy to spin the data however you want when you run a Cable News Network.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Yeah....thus my lament.  We are incapable of having an honest, mutual conversation.  It's crippling.

Yup. That's why a "no politics" discussion is almost impossible. Politics enters into it.

Just think about the vaccine. Would we be pushing an October date if their wasn't a November election? Would we still be locked down in many states if this wasn't an election year? 

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15 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

CNN reporting week over week new cases for each of the 50 states is 23 increasing, 6 decreasing, and the rest holding steady. I don’t know if that’s ok or bad. I would guess that increases off of a small number wouldn’t be that concerning, but shows you have to really dig into the data to understand the appropriate actions.

Case counts still have too many confounding factors involved. It is more useful to look at the hospitalization and mortality trends. 

Most states are well past their peaks on these measures. A tweet with some charts...

 

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12 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

This. Like Texas, many states are seeing an increase in the number of cases in the 13-25 age group as testing requirements increase for back to school/sports/etc.

This is the lowest risk group, so I would say we have been successful in flattening the curve and reopening the schools since the resulting hospitalizations have been very low. 

But it's easy to spin the data however you want when you run a Cable News Network.

Not just here, but across the pond as well.  The good news is the mortality rate is still significantly low.

27d9fa3667df92c2159bf09f00ccefb7387eecfd

45f2364a798e1bcce33c2c47651632c05e964845

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Just now, BabaYaga said:

The good news is the mortality rate is still significantly low.

The only stat that matters. We've gone full Aggy declaring "but what about the rushing yards!?!?".

Scoreboard, Aggy.

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21 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

The  really interesting thing is going to be international travel -- I suspect that many countries won't admit Americans without proof of vaccination.

countries will require it to be documented on your passport I am sure.

 

12 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

Yup. That's why a "no politics" discussion is almost impossible. Politics enters into it.

Just think about the vaccine. Would we be pushing an October date if their wasn't a November election? Would we still be locked down in many states if this wasn't an election year? 

I am sure the be prepared to deliver by Nov 1st and "weeks away" is largely politically/economically driven but I have been betting on late Nov for delivery of a vax(initial not widespread) for a while.  so it makes sense to get ready early.  you could easily say Nov 5th or Oct 30th.

the lockdown is much the same after we saved the hospital overrun, by not having the entire country hit at once, which was months ago.  not saying a few locations didn't get severely stressed but the widespread bodies in streets because they can't get care never really happened. the initial lockdown did that IMO.

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2 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

so it makes sense to get ready early.  you could easily say Nov 5th or Oct 30th.

And listening to the taskforce talk, that seems to be the plan. But reporters seemed to be pushing back and hand wringing about "too soon". 

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2 minutes ago, Cheeseweasel said:

And listening to the taskforce talk, that seems to be the plan. But reporters seemed to be pushing back and hand wringing about "too soon". 

So did the CDC. You guys should start your own thread where you can gripe about the media and keep it out of here.

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1 hour ago, Anastasis said:

Case counts still have too many confounding factors involved. It is more useful to look at the hospitalization and mortality trends. 

Most states are well past their peaks on these measures. A tweet with some charts...

 

Very much agree with the bolded.  If I was in charge of making policy decisions, I would want to know, on a local level (counties, cities), the following data, in order of imporance:

hospitalizations

deaths

total infections

infections of people over 40

infections of people under 40

Hospitalization, not just mortality, matters, because COVID does more than kill.  It does serious bodily damage, and we need to track for that and see that as a real harm.  Total infections matter because I can see general infection trends.  But the infections for specific ages matters, too.

As an analogy, we aren't as worried about infections of the young causing harm to them -- we are worried about them being "small fires" that lead to larger fires that consume more vulnerable folks.  If high school students are getting infected but are fine, we're good.  If they're getting infected and functioning as vectors of transmission to older, more vulnerable people, that's not fine.  So I want to see how the infection numbers for those age groups interact.

And again, while we need a national strategy, and some good objective benchmarks and actions that can be implemented nationwide, there has to be flexibility for local decisionmaking based on local conditions. If county X is seeing low hospitalization rates, and keeps them there, then be more aggressive about in-person schooling.  If county Y is seeing the opposite, and needs to tamp down all potential vectors for a while, then maybe online or hybrid schooling is a better path for a while.  Heck, even if a specific school has a big outbreak, maybe you shut down to tamp it down (we've done that for flu in the past).

1 hour ago, Cheeseweasel said:

The only stat that matters. We've gone full Aggy declaring "but what about the rushing yards!?!?".

Scoreboard, Aggy.

Again, I think that deaths isn't the best metric, just like infections isn't the best metric.  Hospitalizations is the best one to tell us how we are doing in managing the overall harm to our society.

 

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59 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Moderators please change thread title to no politics/no media

First of all, everyone here knows why the 3-4 of you obsessed with the media are as deranged about the media as you are. Secondly, it's annoying as shit. Half of every page is the four of you incessantly whining about the media. Let's talk about Covid.

Edited by BradInATX

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13 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

First of all, everyone here knows why the 3-4 of you obsessed with the media are as deranged about the media as you are. Secondly, it's annoying as shit. Half of every page is the four of you incessantly whining about the media. Let's talk about Covid.

what the fuck are you talking about? quit blathering on.  there is a covid medical discussion thread available to you, go find it.

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5 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

what the fuck are you talking about? quit blathering on.  there is a covid medical discussion thread available to you, go find it.

There's also a politics board for you to go cry about the liberal media nonstop on. Let's talk about Covid on the Covid thread.

Edited by BradInATX

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3 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

CNN reporting week over week new cases for each of the 50 states is 23 increasing, 6 decreasing, and the rest holding steady. I don’t know if that’s ok or bad. I would guess that increases off of a small number wouldn’t be that concerning, but shows you have to really dig into the data to understand the appropriate actions.

agreed.  a couple of days ago arkansas reported 147 deaths. that would be 15% of the overall deaths in one day.  everyone is playing catch up.  especially on cases.

1 point 3 has a 14 day new cases column.  https://coronavirus.1point3acres.com/

overall US is 7.9% increase.  most are below 12%.  NY and NJ have been at approx 2-3% since their version of the covid shitshow ended. 2-3% is probably the best you'll see any large state get to for a while.

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5 minutes ago, BradInATX said:

There's also a politics board for you to go cry about the liberal media nonstop on. Let's talk about Covid on the Covid thread.

we are talking about the media reporting on covid in the covid thread.  quit crying about media covid discussions there's no crying in covidball.  if you take your whiny ass to the covid medical thread you will be in your safe space.

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