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2020 Dems: New Hampshire (thank god, a normal primary)

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Biden is cratering, he's not going to recover from this. He is literally skipping the next state up to try and rally his remaining base in South Carolina.
I completely agree. But I do have concerns if Bernie can motivate people to get off their asses.

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13 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

JFC I am not even a Sanders voter but I am getting really tired of this nonsense. This is a selection of the first page of "Bernie Sanders vs Trump polls on Google" and some other polls pulled from the RCP link

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Pennsylvania.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Wisconsin.html

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/11/sanders-crushes-trump-18-points-among-independent-voters-new-national-general

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-doubles-his-lead-over-donald-trump-hypothetical-general-election-poll-1482075

All available data shows Sanders outperforms moderate Ds in WI-MI-PA, Democrats' path of least resistance. This playedd out last year in those states, where Sanders beat Clinton in two of the three primaries, and the amount of Independents that voted Sanders and then flipped to Trump exceeded Trump's margin of victory. In fact, while we'll obviously never know for sure, the data says that if Sanders was the D nominee in 2016, we'd all be watching the NH Republican primary right now because he'd be President.

There are plenty of legit reasons to prefer someone else over Sanders. I do myself. The "viable to the general elctorate" angle is simply not rooted in reality.

That’s before six months of Trump and the Republicans literally screaming about socialism.

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1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
3 minutes ago, GSU&UT said:
Biden is cratering, he's not going to recover from this. He is literally skipping the next state up to try and rally his remaining base in South Carolina.

I completely agree. But I do have concerns if Bernie can motivate people to get off their asses.

The only thing I can say is that Amy polls worse with black voters and hispanic voters than Bernie. Bernie is only behind Biden in the last national poll published (and yes I'm aware of Bloomberg trying to money-whip states where the other candidates haven't spent on advertising yet).

 

https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

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14 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

JFC I am not even a Sanders voter but I am getting really tired of this nonsense. This is a selection of the first page of "Bernie Sanders vs Trump polls on Google" and some other polls pulled from the RCP link

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_sanders-6250.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Michigan.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Pennsylvania.html

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2020/president/Wisconsin.html

https://www.commondreams.org/news/2020/02/11/sanders-crushes-trump-18-points-among-independent-voters-new-national-general

https://www.newsweek.com/bernie-sanders-doubles-his-lead-over-donald-trump-hypothetical-general-election-poll-1482075

All available data shows Sanders outperforms moderate Ds in WI-MI-PA, Democrats' path of least resistance. This playedd out last year in those states, where Sanders beat Clinton in two of the three primaries, and the amount of Independents that voted Sanders and then flipped to Trump exceeded Trump's margin of victory. In fact, while we'll obviously never know for sure, the data says that if Sanders was the D nominee in 2016, we'd all be watching the NH Republican primary right now because he'd be President.

There are plenty of legit reasons to prefer someone else over Sanders. I do myself. The "viable to the general elctorate" angle is simply not rooted in reality.

Bernie would have beat trump in 2016, even without the Russian interference. Its very hard for the Democratic Party to admit this but its true. He beats trump in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. 

I don’t agree with all his positions either, but if Biden falters, which it appears he is doing, then the Bern is the best chance to beat trump as well and he will. The Democratic Party won’t like it, but oh well. 

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5 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Not in PA. Biden outperforming based on all the polls in your link in PA.

 

Joe Biden polling better than Sanders (for now) in his home state of PA does not buck the overall trend. And Sanders still beats Trump in the polls there consistently, which doesn'tsupport the idea that he isn't viable in the general electorate (note that Firehouse Strategies is a publicly Republican firm so I am disregarding): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/pennsylvania/

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3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That’s before six months of Trump and the Republicans literally screaming about socialism.

Which they'll do against anyone to the left of Moussolini.

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4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That’s before six months of Trump and the Republicans literally screaming about socialism.

Screaming socialism only works with their base, which is much smaller than the democratic base. The only way the republicans win is by illegally suppressing the democratic vote. They know this which is why they are doing all that they can to do it. 

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9 minutes ago, JimmyJames said:

We got it. You think trump is winning no matter what. See you in November. 

This is reminiscent of watching a Charlie Strong coached team 

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She goes on and fights the good fight. She is truly a gifted individual with solid values and we need that right now. Sometimes, you get in the right place at the right time and fortune smile upon you....like it did on Kloby tonight. I think Liz has a valuable voice that needs to stay in.

I still think she’s the best candidate. I do think she had a hard time with Bernie keeping his base and she had no where to go really to get votes. I’d prefer her over every other candidate but I don’t see her path to winning. And the progressive versus moderate battle leaves her bumping up against Sanders or being someone she’s really not (anymore). When she moved a bit more to the center it all cratered. Sucks. I like her a lot.

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The rest of the developed world looks at Bernie Sanders brand of “Socialist” as barely center-left on the scale. Unfortunately the US populace has had their mind warped by cable tv. 

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Just now, Bruh Man said:

God Klobuchar is so damn corny. 

Corn on the Klob.

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I thought previous primaries showed that Iowa and New Hampshire really don’t matter much.

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1 minute ago, Firemans4Horn said:

The rest of the developed world looks at Bernie Sanders brand of “Socialist” as barely center-left on the scale. Unfortunately the US populace has had their mind warped by cable tv. 

I mean, posters here are going to scream about how there is slight privatization of healthcare in Canada as if it's in any way comparable to what Bernie is pushing for.

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Why is MSNBC running her whole speech? That was weird. I will not have her crammed down my throat because that is who corporate America tolerates. Fuck that. I will turn into a fucking flaming Bernie Bro with giant hairy balls hanging out my tight cutoff jorts before I let that happen. hahaha, I just made myself laugh hard.

 

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Some good news for the Democrats in 538's chat tonight:

10:03 PM

You know, earlier tonight turnout looked to be lagging a bit behind the 2008 Democratic primary and slightly ahead of the 2016 race. But since then, it’s looking more likely it’ll match 2008. Looking at places that are 100 percent reporting and comparing their turnout in 2008 and 2016, the 2020 Democratic primary is now only 1 percent behind turnout in 2008 and is about 14 percent ahead of the 2016 primary.

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2 minutes ago, bad_teammate said:

That Klob speech felt like it was 45 minutes long holy god

She should have done her hair in cornrows tonight to try to drum up support from Blacks, knowing that we have Nevada & SC next.

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Why is MSNBC running her whole speech? That was weird. I will not have her crammed down my throat because that is who corporate America tolerates. Fuck that. I will turn into a fucking flaming Bernie Bro with giant hairy balls hanging out my tight cutoff jorts before I let that happen. hahaha, I just made myself laugh hard.
 

I would strongly suspect that MSNBC is going to run the speeches of each of the top 3 finalists.


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Good Lord is Chris Matthews a worthless piece of shit.

It is utterly insane the smoke MSNBC is blowing up our collective ass about Amy Klobuchar. She took 5th and 3rd in IA and NH, respectively. JFC.

 

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Just now, 406W30th said:

Good Lord is Chris Matthews a worthless piece of shit.

It is utterly insane the smoke MSNBC is blowing up our collective ass about Amy Klobuchar. She took 5th and 3rd in IA and NH, respectively. JFC.

He's embarrassing.

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Just now, 406W30th said:

Good Lord is Chris Matthews a worthless piece of shit.

It is utterly insane the smoke MSNBC is blowing up our collective ass about Amy Klobuchar. She took 5th and 3rd in IA and NH, respectively. JFC.

 

She's also, somewhat amazingly, somehow polling WORSE than Mayor Pete among voters of color.  

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3 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

She should have done her hair in cornrows tonight to try to drum up support from Blacks, knowing that we have Nevada & SC next.

 

Too late. Joe has SC locked up. After getting his ass kicked by the white folks in IA and NH, he goes 'home'. 

 

It's 2020 and people still do this shit..SMDH

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8 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

She should have done her hair in cornrows tonight to try to drum up support from Blacks, knowing that we have Nevada & SC next.

Did you miss the corn rows above Bidens neck during his speech tonight?

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Good Lord is Chris Matthews a worthless piece of shit.
It is utterly insane the smoke MSNBC is blowing up our collective ass about Amy Klobuchar. She took 5th and 3rd in IA and NH, respectively. JFC.
 

Don’t worry—if Buttigieg comes back to win this, nobody is going to be talking about Klobuchar tomorrow.


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Chris will likely be beheaded in Central Park if Bernie win in November, so cut the guy some slack he’s going through some shit. 

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I think Van Jones is right about Ds being depressed and just unsure who to vote for in general in the primaries.

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29 minutes ago, smuggs said:

Corn on the Klob.

Seals my vote! 

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16 minutes ago, 406W30th said:

Good Lord is Chris Matthews a worthless piece of shit.

It is utterly insane the smoke MSNBC is blowing up our collective ass about Amy Klobuchar. She took 5th and 3rd in IA and NH, respectively. JFC.

 


Matthews has lost his mind. 

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Uh oh - Mayor Pete now down by less than 2 points and 4K votes.  Probably too little too late, but still...

This is getting very interesting.


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I don't spend near as much time following this as most of you but am I wrong thinking that whichever of Biden/Buttigeg/Klobuchar are left standing will eventually consolidate all of those votes (or they will all just go Bloomberg if he makes a run).  Bernie (and Warren) has their base and they may be the most vocal but can they get to a majority as the field shrinks?  Seems like absolute best thing for Bernie would be for Warren to drop out sooner than later and start campaigning for him but don't know if they ever patched things up.  

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Who picked the colors on this CNN map?  We're so scared of red that the palette can only vary from purplish-blue to greenish-blue?  Throw some yellows, oranges, and purples up there.

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30 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

She should have done her hair in cornrows tonight to try to drum up support from Blacks, knowing that we have Nevada & SC next.

Las Vegas show me love up in the Klob.

Charleston show me love up in the Klob.

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3 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
11 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is getting very interesting.


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It's been interesting, so much so I cannot go to sleep. It is 4:37 in CPH.

You're good over 12 hours until Noma opens.

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50 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

That’s before six months of Trump and the Republicans literally screaming about socialism.

Oh come on.

Mayor Pete said it himself. Who cares what the Rs think? If a moderate wins the nomination, they'll call him/her a socialist. If a progressive wins, ditto.

They screamed socialism from the rooftops in 2018 and it didn't change that election from being a good one for the Ds.

The boy who cried wolf, yada yada...

 

36 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

I thought previous primaries showed that Iowa and New Hampshire really don’t matter much.

Obama won Iowa in 2008. Hillary won Iowa (barely) in 2016.

New Hampshire is less predictive for the Ds but has been nails for the Rs.

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8 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
15 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

This is getting very interesting.


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It's been interesting, so much so I cannot go to sleep. It is 4:37 in CPH.

Have yourself a sixer if Carlsberg to wind down.

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I think Bernie will hold on tonight. I think you could say it's a good night for Bernie/Pete/Amy. 

Obviously Bernie is in a much better position than the other two heading into Nevada and SC and Super Tuesday. I think Amy will be properly vetted after tonight and will fade quickly after Nevada/SC, where she doesn't have much organization. The question is if Pete can kill off Biden by or before Nevada. Then he has a chance. 

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Bernie didn't benefit from Warren's cratering tonight.  There's no way he's going to be the nominee.  He's got a hard cap of support.  Is there a betting platform where you can short his candidacy?

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Really interesting to see a Justice Dems person on CNN. Bernie basically has a surrogate on these election shows, which is different than 2016. 

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2 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:
4 minutes ago, bolverk said:
Have yourself a sixer if Carlsberg to wind down.

I need to get up in 2 hours. FML. Day full of meetings. Yeah, here for work.

Based on my experience, Danes aren’t judgmental at all. /s

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1 minute ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Really interesting to see a Justice Dems person on CNN. Bernie basically has a surrogate on these election shows, which is different than 2016. 

Yeah they are great. 0-for in 2018? 

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1 minute ago, Old Freak Nasty said:

Bernie didn't benefit from Warren's cratering tonight.  There's no way he's going to be the nominee.  He's got a hard cap of support.  Is there a betting platform where you can short his candidacy?

If enough "moderate" candidates stay in the race long enough he may just win. 

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mpu


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