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COVID-19 2nd wave - Texas only (no politics)

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On 7/30/2020 at 6:35 AM, Bartles said:

Agree with this. No place in the US has the discipline and cohesiveness seen overseas to hammer the numbers down to where every outbreak can be traced and cut off before it's in the community. Besides our basic behavior, people move around too much so even a smallish town can't prevent new cases from being brought in almost daily.

America will simply be a dangerous place for an indeterminate amount of time. Best we can hope for is the future waves are short-term bumps and no more surges that look like the Titan rollercoaster climb.

Yeah, other countries can do things the US won't/can't. Look at China, (not that I agree with their bullshit numbers), but they were literally locking people in their own homes. They weren't having debates about a mask. The US can't do what they did. The controlled their outbreak through totalitarian measures. Places like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan used a few measures that the US doesn't have. Culturally, they already are anti-germ, they all believe in masks, already wore them regularly. They had hard lockdowns, some more than other, but they followed social distancing, masks, etc back in January and February. They had big data tracking people phones, and social shame people who didn't follow the rules. They weren't having people living their best lives in March and trying to reopen a month later. Again, the US is culturally opposite. They don't give a fuck, and half the country thinks it's not real. 

Spain/Italy/France and other EU countries shut down hard and fast. They still got hit hard, but they took it seriously. They socially shamed people who didn't take it seriously. Now they are seeing spikes because they opened back up a little. That's because the virus didn't go away. It's going to flare up in places. But when you got it down to a reasonable number, you can contact trace and quarantine those people and keep it mostly down until a vaccine is available. 

The US has zero discipline. This thing is going to be here for a while. Even after we get a vaccine, how many will actually get the vaccine? How effective will the vaccine be? Dont' get me wrong, the cases and deaths will drop dramatically once it becomes widely available, but there still going to be issues in the US in communities that don't give a shit. 

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42 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Yeah, other countries can do things the US won't/can't. Look at China, (not that I agree with their bullshit numbers), but they were literally locking people in their own homes. They weren't having debates about a mask. The US can't do what they did. The controlled their outbreak through totalitarian measures. Places like South Korea, Taiwan, Japan used a few measures that the US doesn't have. Culturally, they already are anti-germ, they all believe in masks, already wore them regularly. They had hard lockdowns, some more than other, but they followed social distancing, masks, etc back in January and February. They had big data tracking people phones, and social shame people who didn't follow the rules. They weren't having people living their best lives in March and trying to reopen a month later. Again, the US is culturally opposite. They don't give a fuck, and half the country thinks it's not real. 

Spain/Italy/France and other EU countries shut down hard and fast. They still got hit hard, but they took it seriously. They socially shamed people who didn't take it seriously. Now they are seeing spikes because they opened back up a little. That's because the virus didn't go away. It's going to flare up in places. But when you got it down to a reasonable number, you can contact trace and quarantine those people and keep it mostly down until a vaccine is available. 

The US has zero discipline. This thing is going to be here for a while. Even after we get a vaccine, how many will actually get the vaccine? How effective will the vaccine be? Dont' get me wrong, the cases and deaths will drop dramatically once it becomes widely available, but there still going to be issues in the US in communities that don't give a shit. 

We do have the ability but lack competent (political) leaders to implement sensible policies. We have come together as a nation in other national crisis but had reasonably (not even great) leaders that would make the hard decisions. 

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46 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Spain/Italy/France and other EU countries shut down hard and fast. They still got hit hard, but they took it seriously. They socially shamed people who didn't take it seriously. Now they are seeing spikes because they opened back up a little. That's because the virus didn't go away. It's going to flare up in places. But when you got it down to a reasonable number, you can contact trace and quarantine those people and keep it mostly down until a vaccine is available. 

The US has zero discipline. This thing is going to be here for a while. Even after we get a vaccine, how many will actually get the vaccine? How effective will the vaccine be? Dont' get me wrong, the cases and deaths will drop dramatically once it becomes widely available, but there still going to be issues in the US in communities that don't give a shit. 

Two things -- the "spikes" being seen in the EU right now are....a few hundred cases.  We're seeing that in one county here in the US.

Second....your second para is spot-on.  We're going to be living with this disease as endemic, and as a periodic flare-up real problem, for a LONG time.  Because we are so.  fucking.  stupid.

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2 hours ago, troph said:

The correct answer is:

F. Surly Attorneys

ps - stay home.

G. Surly Attorneys who also went to law school.

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3 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

G. Surly Attorneys who also went to law school.

H. Surly Attorneys who also went to law school and medical school.

I. Surly doctors

J. Surly doctors who attended medical school.

K. Surly doctors who attended medical school and law school.

That should cover all of Surly.

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BTW, today is day 150 of COVID in Texas ... first case reported in Texas was March 4th.

If a vaccine is available on Jan 1, 2021, we have 154 days to go.   It is going to be a long, long fall.

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3 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

BTW, today is day 150 of COVID in Texas ... first case reported in Texas was March 4th.

If a vaccine is available on Jan 1, 2021, we have 154 days to go.   It is going to be a long, long fall.

Why would you do this?

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6 hours ago, LTtxfan said:

Texas related...

 

I just want to say that's an wicked bad ass pic of the tower.  I don't think I could ever stop loving that building.  wow.

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52 minutes ago, troph said:

I just want to say that's an wicked bad ass pic of the tower.  I don't think I could ever stop loving that building.  wow.

It is definitely the greatest phallic symbol in the world.

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Austin MSA doing pretty OK. From 492 hospitalizations two weeks ago to 338.

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8 hours ago, Neonmoon said:

L. Surly members that fucked people that went to medical school and law school

You rang?  Yes?  What can I do for you?

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21 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Two things -- the "spikes" being seen in the EU right now are....a few hundred cases.  We're seeing that in one county here in the US.

Second....your second para is spot-on.  We're going to be living with this disease as endemic, and as a periodic flare-up real problem, for a LONG time.  Because we are so.  fucking.  stupid.

Spain crossed 3k cases yesterday and very much looks like the very early stages of a legit 2nd wave. They no doubt learned from us what not to do, but if countries like that have a legit 2nd round that will be discouraging...will feel like there is a certain inevitability to it, IMO.

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Yep, we are doing...by far...one of the worst jobs in the world but we refuse to admit it.  Spain and Italy at least faced their ineptitude early on and tried to course-correct...we seem to be doubling down on our stupidity and selfishness.  I still think, mathematically, we get a brief reprieve in October and then have a November-February that perhaps marks the worst time in United States since 1942.  

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Here is the updated view of the stacked bar daily case increase for Travis County with this past week's data included. I am basically taking what I send daily and putting it in this format so you can see graphically the daily movement by age cohort. Where you see connectors opening it means an increase from prior day, closing it is a decrease.

I am not adding in the <1 bracket. Frankly their numbers are so low it would for all intents and purposes just be adding a row of 0s or 1s at bottom of slide.

I will update deaths whenever TCAD does their weekly upload.

image.png.44f9308bb28f80e1cc48e8e36b0d1a47.png

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Yep, we are doing...by far...one of the worst jobs in the world but we refuse to admit it.  Spain and Italy at least faced their ineptitude early on and tried to course-correct...we seem to be doubling down on our stupidity and selfishness.  I still think, mathematically, we get a brief reprieve in October and then have a November-February that perhaps marks the worst time in United States since 1942.  

dripping short film GIF

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So the faucet is the United States and the drips are the virus?  I think I get it, man. 

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Yep, we are doing...by far...one of the worst jobs in the world but we refuse to admit it.  Spain and Italy at least faced their ineptitude early on and tried to course-correct...we seem to be doubling down on our stupidity and selfishness.  I still think, mathematically, we get a brief reprieve in October and then have a November-February that perhaps marks the worst time in United States since 1942.  

Was it over when the Germans bomber Pearl Harbor?

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No, it was the Italians that bombed Pearl Harbor in 1942.  Germany bombed the Aleutian Islands.  Read a fucking book, dude. 

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Fuck you covid and fuck you dumbasses in Cameron county who want to drink at fuckin chillis and Applebee’s.

EB830690-A877-4674-A53A-F1E9380FBC46.png

E2CBBD09-071E-48E0-808A-126463677510.png

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14 hours ago, Lobo said:

Yep, we are doing...by far...one of the worst jobs in the world but we refuse to admit it.  Spain and Italy at least faced their ineptitude early on and tried to course-correct...we seem to be doubling down on our stupidity and selfishness.  I still think, mathematically, we get a brief reprieve in October and then have a November-February that perhaps marks the worst time in United States since 1942.  

Spain is just unhappy there's no New World to infect with the virus. 

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Posted (edited)

Daily case comparison for Travis county. Uptick in the 1-9 compared to their overall share of cases (march to date). Lower number of cases overall yesterday (222) so the actual number of 1-9 cases is still relatively low to where it was trending prior.

Age Bracket <1 1 to 9 10 to 19 20 to 29 30 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 to 69 70 to 79 >80 Total
New Cases 8/1 vs 7/31 1 19 16 51 46 41 27 14 6 1 222
% of Daily Change 0.45% 8.56% 7.21% 22.97% 20.72% 18.47% 12.16% 6.31% 2.70% 0.45%  
% of Total Cases 0.52% 2.75% 7.71% 26.98% 21.72% 16.42% 11.65% 6.41% 3.25% 2.60%   20,967
Edited by BrazilHorn

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Here is the weekly deaths for Travis County trend line. Travis County still holding at ~35 or so deaths a week the past three weeks. Still heavily concentrated in the 60 yo+ bucket.(~80%). However as of w/e Aug 1st. Slight uptick in the 50-59 year old bracket now ~13% of deaths overall. End of the day if you are old and get this you have a ~9% chance of dying (60yo +). This grows to ~19% for 80 yo+.

image.png.06b93f2e8a30f8fb08571f394325076d.png

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Another data point I have been tracking is the 7 day average of patients on a ventilator. It is absolutely going the wrong direction. So while total hospitalizations are moving downwards (high of 480 on July 20th to now 222 on Aug 1st) the % of those hospitalized on a ventilator has increased steadily.

W/E June 21st - 15.87%

W/E June 28th - 16.82%

W/E July 3rd - 16.78%

W/E July 10th - 18.52%

W/E July 17th - 20.20%

W/E July 24th - 23.57%

W/E July 31st - 25.05%

You do not see a corresponding increase in the % of those hospitalized in ICU however. Data here actually shows a decline from the low 40% of people hospitalized requiring ICU to the low 30s from late June to Aug 1st. What I can tell is that for last month ~63% of all ICU patients end up on ventilation.

So figure a little over of third of all patients end up in ICU and of those around two thirds on ventilation.

Again if you are old, obese or have significant underlying auto immune/respiratory conditions stay home.

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12 minutes ago, BrazilHorn said:

Again if you are old, obese or have significant underlying auto immune/respiratory conditions stay home.

Stay isolated. Many of these in the high risk population are having the virus brought into the home from other family members.  However, there are some people out that look like they wanted to tempt fate. Then again, good life choices eludes many of the high risk population.

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3 minutes ago, Newdoc said:

Stay isolated. Many of these in the high risk population are having the virus brought into the home from other family members.  However, there are some people out that look like they wanted to tempt fate. Then again, good life choices eludes many of the high risk population.

True. Stay away from those in your life that have any of the above conditions. 
 

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Realistically it’s difficult to be isolated if you live with other people.

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31 minutes ago, XYZ said:

Realistically it’s difficult to be isolated if you live with other people.

True but good example is it was my mom’s birthday yesterday. My family drove to her place and called and had her come to front door and we stayed at curb and said “hello/happy birthday”

Didn’t put her or us at risk  

 

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1 minute ago, BradInATX said:

I'm at surfside beach, been here all weekend. It's a crowd that uh, let's just say isn't worried about Covid. Have had nothing but pleasant interactions and found everyone respectful. Shot the shit with some Houston good old boys next to us on the beach from a distance for awhile, and they were completely fine when I asked them to give us a few more feet of space when we were talking, because the wife is pregnant. Almost 100% mask compliance in stores, with a few who only had the mouth covered.

 

The internet is like an amplifier for assholery. Real life ain't all that bad.

 

 

Down in Port Oconnor this weekend there was a solid 50% mask usage rate from what I saw at the liquor store and speedy stop. Fewer folks wearing masks at the fishing tournament weigh in though

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28 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Down in Port Oconnor this weekend there was a solid 50% mask usage rate from what I saw at the liquor store and speedy stop. Fewer folks wearing masks at the fishing tournament weigh in though

I figured as much when I was down there a few weeks ago. I know the elderly keeper of Clark’s was concerned. She locked the door to the office during hours and would talk thru the door, which was fine with us. She met a few of the high risk categories.  No interactions other than that tho. 

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I did see one lady call a young guy out who was walking into the gas station without a mask. Was all prepared for drama and worldstar. Guy said he didn't have one, the lady gave him one, and he put it on. Boring.

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I'm at surfside beach, been here all weekend. It's a crowd that uh, let's just say isn't worried about Covid. Have had nothing but pleasant interactions and found everyone respectful. Shot the shit with some Houston good old boys next to us on the beach from a distance for awhile, and they were completely fine when I asked them to give us a few more feet of space when we were talking, because the wife is pregnant. Almost 100% mask compliance in stores, with a few who only had the mouth covered.
 
The internet is like an amplifier for assholery. Real life ain't all that bad.
 
 

We’re in Surfside too. Had to hit HEB and Buccee’s, close to 100% mask wearing. On the beach, people aren’t right up next to us, so that’s good.

Kind of surprised, actually, because I’ve seen plenty of folks I would expect to think it’s a hoax wearing masks. Of course, the stores require them, so at some point, the social pressure is probably sufficient.

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We’re in Surfside too. Had to hit HEB and Buccee’s, close to 100% mask wearing. On the beach, people aren’t right up next to us, so that’s good.

 

Kind of surprised, actually, because I’ve seen plenty of folks I would expect to think it’s a hoax wearing masks. Of course, the stores require them, so at some point, the social pressure is probably sufficient.

Nice. I'm the very buzzed guy with the Academy easy up. Come find me and I'll throw you a beer.

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Stop posting and enjoy the beach you fuckin' nerds lol
Wife and toddler are napping. I'm drinking with the dog on the beach. It's glorious

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Stop posting and enjoy the beach you fuckin' nerds lol

Heat of the day. Back up at the house. May take a short nap, then head back down. Trying not to drink too much, early wake up for fishing tomorrow.

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1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:


Heat of the day. Back up at the house. May take a short nap, then head back down. Trying not to drink too much, early wake up for fishing tomorrow.

Just get drunk and then eat some sashimi for breakfast prior to fishing.  Works every time.  

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5 hours ago, BrazilHorn said:

Another data point I have been tracking is the 7 day average of patients on a ventilator. It is absolutely going the wrong direction. So while total hospitalizations are moving downwards (high of 480 on July 20th to now 222 on Aug 1st) the % of those hospitalized on a ventilator has increased steadily.

W/E June 21st - 15.87%

W/E June 28th - 16.82%

W/E July 3rd - 16.78%

W/E July 10th - 18.52%

W/E July 17th - 20.20%

W/E July 24th - 23.57%

W/E July 31st - 25.05%

You do not see a corresponding increase in the % of those hospitalized in ICU however. Data here actually shows a decline from the low 40% of people hospitalized requiring ICU to the low 30s from late June to Aug 1st. What I can tell is that for last month ~63% of all ICU patients end up on ventilation.

So figure a little over of third of all patients end up in ICU and of those around two thirds on ventilation.

Again if you are old, obese or have significant underlying auto immune/respiratory conditions stay home.

Lol thats last sentence is literally covers like 75% of americans

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9 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Lol thats last sentence is literally covers like 75% of americans

Yep - and that is why CV19 will keep running through the US like a hot knife through butter.

Main thing IMO helping Travis county is keeping bars closed. Not sure how long that will stay in place but I see this being a series of fits and starts along the way.

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This is the concern with kids, and we saw it with camps here in Texas

https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/31/health/georgia-camp-coronavirus-outbreak-cdc-trnd/?iid=ob_lockedrail_topeditorial

Quote

A Covid-19 outbreak at a Georgia sleep away camp this June could have implications for school reopening, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said. 

The camp had followed some but not all of the CDC mitigation steps against the spread of the new coronavirus -- but was not enough to keep campers and staff free of illness.

One advantage, we are a little smarter:

Quote

According to the study, published Friday in the CDC's Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, the camp adopted most of the components outlined in the CDC document "Suggestions for Youth and Summer Camps," but it did not make campers wear cloth face masks -- only the staff. 

Nor did the camp open windows and doors for increased ventilation In buildings.

Quote

Additionally, camp attendees engaged in "daily vigorous singing and cheering," which might have contributed to transmission.

But it spread fast, or was already everywhere

Quote

The study breaks down what happened at the camp when it opened its doors in mid-June to more than 600 campers and more than 120 staffers. 

Five days after the start of orientation and two days after the start of the camp session, a teenage staff member fell ill and left camp; the next day that person was confirmed to have Covid-19. Officials began sending campers home that day and closed the camp three days later.

Quote

All in all, test results were available for 344 (58%) of the 597 attendees from Georgia; among these, 260 (76%) were positive. At least 44% -- 260 of 597 -- got infected, although the researchers say not everyone was tested so the rate could be even higher. 

Quote

Asymptomatic infection was common and may have played a role in the spread, the study authors said. Among 136 cases with available information on symptoms, 36 patients -- 26% -- reported no symptoms. Of the 100 who reported symptoms, those most commonly reported were subjective or documented fever, headache and sore throat.

Quote

Interestingly, a higher percentage of the youngest children tested positive: 51% among those age 6-10 years, 44% among those age 11-17 years, and 33% among those aged 18-21 years tested positive.

"This investigation adds to the body of evidence demonstrating that children of all ages are susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 infection and, contrary to early reports, might play an important role in transmission," the study authors wrote.

 

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This seems interesting.

https://www.kvue.com/article/news/health/coronavirus/covid-tests-fbi/273-c2178109-d502-414c-8033-6efb72252ba5

Quote

The FBI on Saturday posted a warning on social media to Texans who may have gone to a holistic healthcare practitioner in New Braunfels to get tested for the novel coronavirus: Those tests "should not have been used" in the first place.

The warning applies to those who went to get tested at Living Health Holistic Healthcare in the Hill Country community. According to a tweet from local FBI authorities, law enforcement have "reason to suspect the COVID-19 tests administered at the facility should not have been used to diagnose or rule out an active COVID-19 infection." 

Yeah.....I'm not going to get tested for anything at a clinic with the word "holistic" in its name.

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