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Llano Estacado

Markets still falling like whoa

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https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-banks-trading/u-s-banking-regulators-ease-rules-around-firm-investments-internal-trading-idUSKBN23W2AJ

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The softer swap rule frees banks from having to set aside funds to protect against derivatives trades made between affiliates of the same firm. The final rule sets a limit on how much inter-affiliate exposure a bank could have without setting aside margin funds of 15% of the firm’s capital. 

The latest moves serve as significant victories for the financial industry, which for years had complained about rules they said were onerous, confusing and overly cautious. 

There is more than one way to print money. 

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I mean, this is getting out of control.

This house of cards better hold up bc it I don’t know how much powder they have left..... 

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1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

 

I mean, this is getting out of control.

This house of cards better hold up bc it I don’t know how much powder they have left..... 

We’ve been over this a million times.  The US fed has unlimited ammo up until they don’t.  That moment is probably so dark you better be a prepper to deal with it

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^That.

And nothing to base it on besides myself, this thread, and anecdotal conversations, but I think TINA mindset makes for a pretty solid foundation to the securities market house of cards. What’s the alternative?

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17 minutes ago, Llano Estacado said:

^That.

And nothing to base it on besides myself, this thread, and anecdotal conversations, but I think TINA mindset makes for a pretty solid foundation to the securities market house of cards. What’s the alternative?
 


That’s not a market.

What you’re  describing is a religion.

When you have $ at stake, blind faith seems dicey.

But then again.... TINA?

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3 hours ago, washparkhorn said:

New rules on stress tests buoyed financial shares and that has kept the market afloat in choppy waters after the bad Covid news. Stress test results will be announced after the close today. 

So without the moved goal posts , would the banks have all flunked the stress test?

Serious question b/c I’m trying to keep up but these fed/treasury shenanigans are starting to feel all Enron accountingy. 

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TINA. There is No Alternative, Margaret Thatcher on Free Market Capitalism.

See it cropping up more and more on Boglehead and reddit with regard to investing in securities.

Real estate? Maybe.
Commercial REITS? Nope, not in 2020.
Cash CDs Bonds? Sure, until you miss 1 or 30 brrrrrrrr 3% rally days.

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I hope Biden makes Warren treasury secretary. I dont give a fuck if the markets tank, you can make money in a down market as well. But we gotta reign this shit in. 

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12 minutes ago, Blotto said:

I hope Biden makes Warren treasury secretary. I dont give a fuck if the markets tank, you can make money in a down market as well. But we gotta reign this shit in. 

Laughable, the second any of the empty suits look into the abyss you’re goddamn right the Brrrrrrrr goes on.

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2 hours ago, Dnaguy said:

So without the moved goal posts , would the banks have all flunked the stress test?

Serious question b/c I’m trying to keep up but these fed/treasury shenanigans are starting to feel all Enron accountingy. 

They are committed to keeping the financial system afloat in the belief an intact and functioning "market" will lead to a faster recovery. I don't know the answer to your question. But Brainard of the Fed dissented that the Fed wasn't doing enough to safeguard against failure. Here is a BBC article on the tests and the implications: https://www.bbc.com/news/business-53187415

 
 
 
 
 
 
👕
5
Spoiler

The Federal Reserve has warned that America's biggest banks could be hit by losses of up to $700bn (£563.6bn) in a severe downturn due to the pandemic.

The US central bank said it would require firms to keep money on hand to guard against the risks.

The Fed said it was barring share repurchases and limiting dividend payments until at least October.

Although banks have been a source of "strength" so far, officials warned of a "high degree of uncertainty".

"Today's actions...to preserve the high levels of capital in the US banking system are an acknowledgment of both the strength of our largest banks, as well as the high degree of uncertainty we face," said Randal Quarles, the Fed's vice chair for supervision of the Federal Reserve's Board of Governors.

The announcement accompanied the results of the Federal Reserve's latest annual stress tests, which were instituted after the financial crisis. The stress tests are designed to suss out potential weakness in the financial system.

This year, the Fed added an additional analysis based on the current downturn, which was set off when authorities instituted lockdowns to try to slow the spread of coronavirus. 

Using a scenario where the pandemic severely impacted the US economy, the Fed looked at how the country's 33 biggest banks would fare if unemployment rates were to climb to 19.5%. 

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard thinks the Fed has not gone far enough in protecting US banks

That is higher than the record 14.7% unemployment rate the US reported in April - but about the level the Labor Department said was likely if it adjusted for discrepancies in survey data.

The Fed did not say how individual banks fared under the virus scenario, but warned that aggregate losses could reach $700bn. 

"The Board is taking action...to require the largest banks to adopt prudent measures to preserve capital in coming months," said Mr Quarles.

Not far enough?

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard thinks that the Fed should have announced further measures given the potential losses at stake, by barring dividend payments altogether, as well as other distributions of capital.

The current shock is already more severe than anything the Fed had anticipated in its stress tests, despite past criticism that the central bank was being unrealistically gloomy, she noted.

"It is clear that recent changes in financial markets and the macroeconomic outlook could have a material impact on banks' risk profiles and financial conditions," she said. 

"This action creates a significant risk that banks will need to raise capital or curtail credit at a challenging time."

 

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12 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Tell me you still have a healthy position in ALT.

Depends on your definition of healthy, but I've got couple Gs at an average cost of $6.75.  INO is 10x at six months...I'll take two of those, please.  kthx.

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Is there still any upside to BYND?  It's been pretty stagnant lately. Trying to decide if I should dump it and take 45-50% profit. 

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Posted (edited)

I think $BYND upside is limited in the short term but still a decent long term hold. I sold about half of mine and letting the rest ride for now. I have not found much else that I really want to invest in at this point.

Edited by ZB'Tejas

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2 hours ago, ZB'Tejas said:

I think $BYND upside is limited in the short term but still a decent long term hold. I sold about half of mine and letting the rest ride for now. I have not found much else that I really want to invest in at this point.

Sold half mine as well; the remaining half I have decaying covered calls. The calls are so rich I think I’ll be holding for a while just based on that alone. 
 

New pick is SGEN...cancer drug co...looks to be breaking out this week. 

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On 6/25/2020 at 9:30 AM, UT_OB1 said:

I meant to do it Monday and of course didn’t, but I just moved 1/3 of my 401K in to cash this morning. So I expect record gains over the next 4 weeks. You’re all welcome. 

Well, maybe I should have moved 2/3s instead...  

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18 hours ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Tell me you still have a healthy position in ALT.

ALT is better than most stonks, because there are option - so rather than by a a couple of hundred shares you can take that same money and buy options on a few thousands shares. More risk, more reward (or complete loss - but we don't talk about that)

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6 hours ago, SuperSport said:

Depends on your definition of healthy, but I've got couple Gs at an average cost of $6.75.  INO is 10x at six months...I'll take two of those, please.  kthx.

Good on you for getting in INO sub $4. The opportunity to buy was there at $7.50, but I blinked and the price went to $14 in less than a week.  I'm in ALT at $3.35 with no plans to sell.  This ride has a l-o-n-g way to go.

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Traded out of half of my SPY put position (sold the 305s, kept the 310s). I think we see pain carry into next week as some bad case numbers post over the weekend. 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Wally Fairway said:

ALT is better than most stonks, because there are option - so rather than by a a couple of hundred shares you can take that same money and buy options on a few thousands shares. More risk, more reward (or complete loss - but we don't talk about that)

It's accepted wisdom on Wall Street that 90% of investors lose money trading options.  Put me squarely in that 90%.  No mas.  There should be a National Helpline for people who trade options.  

Edited by Harrison Stafford

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11 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Traded out of half of my SPY put position (sold the 305s, kept the 310s). I think we see pain carry into next week as some bad case numbers post over the weekend. 

And then the Q2 numbers start rolling in Mid July. I added some SPY puts this week and doubled my Sept DIS puts that were way underwater to lower my cost average. Not balls deep yet, but my gambling account is definitely  shaded sort now. 

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IMO, Monday and Tuesday could be complete a complete shitshow as fund managers try to clean up their holding heading into quarter end and holdings disclosure.

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Posted (edited)

Still a patient bear.  Fed BRRRRRRTTT feels like keeping a brain dead patient on life support.  Actually it feels like wheeling that patient out to the 50 yard line and throwing footballs at his head.  This is all fine guys!

Edited by ChiTownDoc

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I see Albertsons IPOd today. I dont know anything about its numbers, but I would short the fuck out of that shitty company

 

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1 hour ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Still a patient bear.  Fed BRRRRRRTTT feels like keeping a brain dead patient on life support.  Actually it feels like wheeling that patient out to the 50 yard line and throwing footballs at his head.  This is all fine guys!

Am in only 4 stocks and they’re all CV plays.  When those fires raging in the distance are at the door and playtime is over, these stocks will thrive while everything else goes to hell.  Doc, would be interested in your take on AIM (ImmunoTech) should you have such a take.

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32 minutes ago, Harrison Stafford said:

Am in only 4 stocks and they’re all CV plays.  When those fires raging in the distance are at the door and playtime is over, these stocks will thrive while everything else goes to hell.  Doc, would be interested in your take on AIM (ImmunoTech) should you have such a take.

It's a good play but I can't tell who the winners and losers will be in biopharm/biotech so I've just played the ETF - XBI...I got in around $80.  And I did XOM/CVX/OKE when they were beat up rather badly.  Did some gold and AMZN/FB/NFLX/HD/PYPL and still managed to stay 25% cash.  I have a lot of fixed income too that I didn't touch.  I obviously have no idea wtf is going on or I would have jumped in on everything a while back but I remain convinced a real pullback is coming.  If not, I have zero worries as our company is doing a PE rollup and I wouldn't feel comfortable not sitting in enough cash to do deals.  

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5 hours ago, DougHdTx1968 said:

I heard Jimmy John's was doing buy one get one free sandwiches and obviously this portends a massive drop

giphy.gif

 

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10 hours ago, DougHdTx1968 said:

I heard Jimmy John's was doing buy one get one free sandwiches and obviously this portends a massive drop

Massive drop is exactly right 

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On 6/26/2020 at 5:07 PM, Wally Fairway said:

IMO, Monday and Tuesday could be complete a complete shitshow as fund managers try to clean up their holding heading into quarter end and holdings disclosure.

Will Ferrell What An Idiot GIF - Find & Share on GIPHY

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On 6/25/2020 at 3:47 PM, Harrison Stafford said:

Nice day for ALT.  +.81 closing at 9.19.  AH it's bouncing over 10.  Want to know where ALT is headed?  Check out the chart on INO.  

ALT opened at a 52 week high of 12.00 this morning +1.40.

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12 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

States shutting back down, cases out of control, much uncertainty. To the moon of course. 

MEWN IT...

I could use a better run for $WORK... I would have thought retracing some steps and WFH should be helpful.

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For the life of me, I can't figure out what Facebook is doing.  I know it's basically a utility and not going anywhere but they're digging in to protect old people sharing conspiracy theories.  Advertisers don't give a fuck about that demographic unless it's Chuck Woolery selling them gold or some shit.

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6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

For the life of me, I can't figure out what Facebook is doing.  I know it's basically a utility and not going anywhere but they're digging in to protect old people sharing conspiracy theories.  Advertisers don't give a fuck about that demographic unless it's Chuck Woolery selling them gold or some shit.

Facebook is riddled with conspiracy  posts and you're kidding yourself if you think its only old people spreading that shit around. You ever read the comments section on any yahoo article....yeah all of those loons spend all day on facebook as well. This country is full of fucking idiots, and facebook has grown its revenue significantly letting all these fucking idiots reinforce each others idiocy. And the thing is, they know exactly who is on their site, what content these people consume, who they interact with, and the revenue tied to every demographic on their site. If you are looking for reasons why Facebook does anything, it always comes down to revenue. Don't overthink things. 

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 Advertisers don't give a fuck about that demographic unless it's Chuck Woolery selling them gold or some shit.


Slight derail/

Is that really true on Facebook though? EVERYTHING worth a shit online is algorithm targeted in 2020.

I’ve never seen coke or Verizon ad on FB or Insta. Beer/booze ads, yes. Hunting and fishing ads, check. Clothing for my demographic of 30-40yo male (work/leisure/athletic/hunting and fishing), all fucking day. The only “missed” targeted ads I get are clearly intended for online shopping for my wife or kids which Facebook knows I have.

Coke and Verizon can run YouTube or prime time ads and hit their demo without missing a beat. Car antenna American flags, Ensure, and robot insurance want those targeted ads and will keep paying a premium for them, correct?

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And the thing is, they know exactly who is on their site, what content these people consume, who they interact with, and the revenue tied to every demographic on their site. If you are looking for reasons why Facebook does anything, it always comes down to revenue. Don't overthink things. 


Bingo. Q, overt racists, and Chemtrail folks buy shit too.

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