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2019 Rain Thread

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12 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Holy shit.  Where did this red blob to the south come from?

Dogs and cats living together.  

Shits gonna get real.  

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41 minutes ago, Wally Pryor said:

Holy shit.  Where did this red blob to the south come from?

Not a surprise.  It's been predicted, right on schedule.  From yesterday a.m.:
 

Quote

Rain gonna happen today about 3-7 p.m in the Metrohole.  Another round tomorrow morning.
Absolutely.  I'd put the chances squarely between 0% and 100%.  Book it.

(I was just echoing the forecasts as this smaller disturbance moves through today).

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Posted (edited)

10K folks got their t-shirts. That's all they wanted.

Edited by Deej

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What a crazy storm. Just under two inches at my house in South Austin. Over 6 at my sister’s house in North Austin. They ended up with 2+ inches in their house and have to move out for a month while all the flooring and most of their walls are replaced. They’d just finished a full remodel and only been in there for a couple months.

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We’ve lost power for 3 1/2 hours now. Good thing this isn’t Master’s weekend.

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Probably about 5-6 inches in Hewitt from yesterday and today.   My M-I-L’s dog shit all I’ve my house this morning since she and my wife are out of town.   Awesome. 

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impressive hail storm overnight in San Marcos. Shit was flying everywhere as we sat out on the porch drinking beer. 

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51 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

impressive hail storm overnight in San Marcos. Shit was flying everywhere as we sat out on the porch drinking beer. 

Yup, that'll do it.  Sounds kinda messy though.

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My wife put out some buckets to grab rainwater for porch plants.  One of them was in the middle of the front yard, away from the roof and all trees -- 4".  That's a pretty hefty rainfall for less than 24 hours.  'bout time.

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Poured out 6.5" from the rain gauge accumulated between sat noon and Sunday noon. 78728. It's raining again right now.

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Could be a rough Saturday for SE Texas.  Here is the latest from Jeff Lindner.

Significant severe weather outbreak likely on Saturday across east TX and LA including the potential for large damaging tornadoes.

Strong to severe thunderstorms possible over SE TX N of US 59 on Saturday.

Surface cold front has pushed into the Gulf of Mexico this morning allowing a much drier air mass to filter into the region. SW flow aloft is starting to overrun the cool and dry air at the surface and radar is showing a few showers around Matagorda Bay. A potent storm system over the SW US will eject across TX on Saturday and result in a significant severe weather outbreak.

Surface front over the Gulf will begin to back northward this afternoon as a warm front as surface pressure fall over NW TX ahead of the approaching upper level trough. Not expecting much shower activity today, but increasing lift tonight will likely result in showers developing and moving northward off the Gulf. Surface warm front placement will be critical on Saturday for severe weather. Currently expect the warm front to move northward and reach US 59 by early Saturday and then a line from College Station to Lake Livingston by early afternoon. Low level winds will be backed out of the E/ESE near the warm front and then overrun by WSW/SW winds around 5000 ft resulting in significant wind shear through the lowest part of the air column. Instability rapidly increases Saturday with CAPES values of 1000-2000 J/kg over the region. As lift increases from the approaching upper level trough and focuses along the retreating warm front severe thunderstorms will develop. Wind shear supports updraft rotation and think the primary mode will be supercells along the warm front with a very large hail and tornado risk. Will focus the highest risk along and N of HWY 105 and really more toward Lake Livingston with the best chances for tornadoes.

South of the warm front, the warm sector air mass will be unstable, but a weak capping inversion will advect into the region from the SW resulting in a fairly sharp cut off in the rain and thunderstorm chances. Severe thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector south of the warm front and ahead of an afternoon cold frontal passage…mainly along and N of US 59. South of US 59, think the air mass will remain capped and only showers will be possible across Jackson, Matagorda, and Brazoria Counties. Severe threat in the warm sector is more conditional on Saturday and will require ingredients to come together at the right time. A review of the short range models show a line of storms, and line segments moving across the area from WNW to ESE Saturday afternoon and think some of these storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds the main threats. Any isolated discrete cell that can develop in the warm sector could become tornadic, but think the highest tornado threat will focus along the warm front which by Saturday afternoon will be NE of our area.

As far as rainfall…fast overall system and cell motions should negate much of a flood threat. Maximum totals of 1-2 inches N of HWY 105 with amounts of .50 to 1 inch south of HWY 105 to US 59 and then less than .50 of an inch S of US 59 across the coastal counties.

NOTE: should the surface warm front be slower in lifting northward early Saturday, a much greater severe and tornado risk would encompass a larger area of SE TX. The movement of the warm front will need to be monitored closely for any refinements of the risks over our area.

SPC Saturday Severe Weather Outlook:

04122019 Jeff untitled.png

 

file.php?id=15262&mode=view

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I think most of that shit is gonna flare up nearer the ArkaTex.  SE Tx is in it but I think more north is closer to the storm and more liable for stronger wind shear.

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I’m getting some nice rain in Rosedale. Can this latest round please wash away the last of this pollen bullshit? I’m dying.

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Well there's a line approaching Austin now from the west - IF it holds together, your grass is gonna get more than wet.  Some light/moderate rain with spots of heavy rain.  In and out (like me with your mom) by 1 or so.  Then tapering off.  Maybe a shower later tonight but the bulk of the rain is next 3 hours.

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Yeah, no hail in this line  - at least for now - coming into Austin but definitely some spotty hail south.  These storms are going to get nasty to our northeast, into LA, AR, and thereabouts.  Shouldn't be a big deal here but there's always the chance for some scattered areas of small hail.

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2 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Got some quarter size hail here in North north San Antonio.  Plus some good rain.  Will inspect the damage soon.

Sarah on KSAT12  is giving a good play by play.  She said some areas of NW SA had 2" hail.  That's pretty dangerous, fortunately it just missed me.

Pics for reference:

 

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35a664e17d31f1a8b860f03f266b4894.jpg

 

 

DhxouJwU8AEvdo4.jpg

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aggy. Would still knock the bottom out. We're getting tiny hail in Spring Branch.

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30 minutes ago, dingleberryswitzer said:

Got some quarter size hail here in North north San Antonio.  Plus some good rain.  Will inspect the damage soon.

Look for what we call "soft tissue" damage to gutters (both downspouts as well as the actual gutter), exposed AC fins being smooshed (coffin type units with louvers won't show this but the kind with a large grate will allow hits through).

Trees having a lot of leaves knocked out (excessively in comparison to normal),  possibly a cracked flower pot or fabric grill cover having tears, dots on your fence (especially if it is weathered into a grey-ish color).  If you have a street mailbox, that can also have dents depending on the material & thickness.

Any dings in your car will also be an indicator.

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& FYI, I'm headed to Balcones Heights on either Tuesday or Wednesday & can easily plug in a couple of inspections for the greater San Antonio area should anyone want a review for hail damage.

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Ping pong ball sized?  Yeah, that will cause damage.  Quarter sized as well, especially if it has a good wind pushing it.
56716218_10216148656926907_6657796085915

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Posted (edited)

They said tennis ball size hail on the news.  But I doubt many San Antonians know how big a tennis ball is.*  Regardless, there will be some work for roofers and window people.

 

*edit: maybe something like chile relleno size, or half-a-puffy taco size.

Edited by miguelito

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11 minutes ago, ROFL BOX said:

Ping pong ball sized?  Yeah, that will cause damage.  Quarter sized as well, especially if it has a good wind pushing it.
56716218_10216148656926907_6657796085915

How much to replace a sky light?

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Confirmed Large and Extremely Dangerous Tornado on the ground near Calvert and Hearne moving NE at 30 MPH

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1 minute ago, Rip76 said:

Confirmed Large and Extremely Dangerous Tornado on the ground near Calvert and Hearne moving NE at 30 MPH

And headed right for Franklin. That debris field on the radar looks huge. 

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5 minutes ago, boknowstecmo said:

And headed right for Franklin. That debris field on the radar looks huge. 

Those folks in line for BBQ are fucked! 

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, 3adays said:

Those folks in line for BBQ are fucked! 

Serves 'em right. They should know that if they're in line after Rockdale, they won't get anything today.

Forecasters sorta kinda blew this... they said that the storm really wouldn't solidify until just over Austin, which means the worst part would be 50-100 miles out to the E-NE.
Welp Austin was more or less spared but no, this sucker ramped up just west of us.  The only thing that saved Austin is that the warmer, moister air was to our south, and the stronger part of the storm to the N-NE, so we were sort of in a less severe donut hole.  Edit:  Looking at the radar, the only other thing that saved Austin is that that rotating cell which brought the big hail to N. SAT merged with the line we got, stopped rotating, and weakened.

But if you have relatives in E/NE Texas, might want to warn'em.  This storm is gonna be nasty into Razorback Country.

Once this line passes, things will quiet down and I believe the rain will move out and at least be dry, if a little slower to clear than first thought.

Edited by phdhorn

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Older son had a soccer game at 8 am at Town and Country. If you've ever played there, it was on the field that is the farthest away from any parking lot - maybe a 7-10 minute walk. I thought the fields would close before the game, but no such luck, so the kids and I went over and got there around 7:45. We haul all our shit out there, get set up in the drizzle, play 7 minutes, then it thundered. That means a 30-minute delay and we have to go wait in our cars. We go back to the cars, thinking they were going to call it the next time it thundered. Alas, they apparently did not hear the next boom because we were sent back out after the 30 minutes was up.

So we schlepped everything back again, they blow the whistle, and that's when it really started raining. No thunder though, so the kids played the entire thing in steady, mostly hard rain. By the time it ended even us spectators were soaked. On the way home, we grabbed some kolaches to go (because everyone deserved a treat), came home, dried off, and are now watching a movie and I'm not stepping a foot outside for a long time.

Tldr: It was a shitty morning for a soccer game.

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Posted (edited)

My son isn't down there due to a conflicting trip to Dallas, but his soccer club has several tournament matches near Bulverde.  Word is that "tennis ball" is an apt descriptor of the hail.

Edited by jimmyjazz

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Well there's a line approaching Austin now from the west - IF it holds together, your grass is gonna get more than wet.  Some light/moderate rain with spots of heavy rain.  In and out (like me with your mom) by 1 or so.  Then tapering off.  Maybe a shower later tonight but the bulk of the rain is next 3 hours.
As long as it clears up before the spring game

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And let me just issue a big "fuck you" to KXAN for pushing a skeletal message about a tornado warning, with absolutely no information about where.  I tune into the TV broadcast, and nothing, just a severe thunderstorm warning for the Hearne area.  I guess that's where the tornado is, based on prior posts.  WTF happened, KXAN used to be reliably and overly precautious about this kind of thing?

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Posted (edited)

Franklin took a direct hit from that rain-wrapped tornado.  Radar debris ball.  That tornado has been ongoing for about a half hour.  NWS just issued a Tornado Watch 5 minutes ago.  Franklin and the path of that tornado are NOT in it.  

Great coordination there.

Edited by clapclapclap

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2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

And let me just issue a big "fuck you" to KXAN for pushing a skeletal message about a tornado warning, with absolutely no information about where.  I tune into the TV broadcast, and nothing, just a severe thunderstorm warning for the Hearne area.  I guess that's where the tornado is, based on prior posts.  WTF happened, KXAN used to be reliably and overly precautious about this kind of thing?

Yeah, Uncle Jimmy is slipping. Alby Ramon put down his bowl of queso and rushed into work. 

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8 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My son isn't down there due to a conflicting trip to Dallas, but his soccer club has several tournament matches near Bulverde.  Word is that "tennis ball" is an apt descriptor of the hail.

Bullet dodged.

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