Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[Somnio 751]

16 minutes ago, mchookem said:

the two places i have been most dreading hearing an outbreak...city slums in India and the Syrian refugee camps. 

millions, super crowded,  close quarters, lack of hygiene, probably poor health/nutrition already, limited medical care... im afraid that will look worse than Wuhan, all those poor people!

And what of N. Korea, firmly sandwiched between China and S. Korea?

I'd imagine they may have quite a few by now.

[conVINCEd 21468]

Just now, Somnio said:

And what of N. Korea, firmly sandwiched between China and S. Korea?

I'd imagine they may have quite a few by now.

They have a pretty good containment system.  One cough=one bullet to the back of the head.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8780]

And what of N. Korea, firmly sandwiched between China and S. Korea?
I'd imagine they may have quite a few by now.

Well did.


Bang bang

[Wally Fairway 5465]

15 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/millions-americans-drink-potentially-unsafe-tap-water-how-does-your-county-stack

While I agree with that article, it has nothing to do with the coronavirus, people are in a mob/herd mentality with buying water. There is no evidence that it is transmitted via community water sources.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

3 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Worth repeating: epidemiological math using R naught and time to double shows that cutting social contact by 70-80% stalls the curve for new infections, as is clearly happening in China.  70-80% reduction does not mean locked into homes and surviving from a bunker of supplies.  Limiting going out and being around groups of people should start now.  You can still do most everything else per usual with heightened awareness around hands and coughing/sneezing distances.  Go to the store during off hours.  The big X factor is kids and school.  They pass it around at school and bring it right into the house.  Japan cancelled school until April.  I won't be surprised if we're there in less than two weeks.

So in a lot of Texas districts this coming week is the last before Spring Break - usually a lot of tests, etc. - hard week to miss on a precautionary basis.

As far as Spring Break is concerned, my kids' incredibly proactive and forward-thinking administration has simply said "hey, first go look on the CDC website - if you're going to do your Spring Break at any one of the countries on their list, call us when you get back and then stay home for 14 days.  Otherwise have fun!"  

So I am expecting no cases next week, the next, or really most of the week after that while school admins and local government folks break their arms patting each other on the back as things escalate elsewhere.  Followed by an explosion once all the kids who brought it back from their SB destinations finally show symptoms. Then massive school closures just in time for STAAR tests with no plan in place for how to deal with that.

[Liquor and Poker 3659]

3 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

While I agree with that article, it has nothing to do with the coronavirus, people are in a mob/herd mentality with buying water. There is no evidence that it is transmitted via community water sources.

I have a virtually unlimited supply of water at my house right now if anyone wants to buy.

[Junior Miller 1502]

5 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Worth repeating: epidemiological math using R naught and time to double shows that cutting social contact by 70-80% stalls the curve for new infections, as is clearly happening in China.  70-80% reduction does not mean locked into homes and surviving from a bunker of supplies.  Limiting going out and being around groups of people should start now.  You can still do most everything else per usual with heightened awareness around hands and coughing/sneezing distances.  Go to the store during off hours.  The big X factor is kids and school.  They pass it around at school and bring it right into the house.  Japan cancelled school until April.  I won't be surprised if we're there in less than two weeks.

That's what I've been saying. Look at Italy, SK, what we can see from China and Iran. Get ahead of this thing now so it doesn't kill our economy later. 

Cancel school at spring break and shift to online learning/at home test kits. Summer school for anyone who can't or won't do it. 

Postpone/reschedule all large groups of people. All concerts postpone until June at earliest. All sporting events played without fans but still televised. Keep pumping out how important it is to wash your hands and don't touch your face/mouth until you've washed them. Disinfect surfaces in your home with alcohol/disinfectant once a day. Don't touch things like elevator buttons or doors with your fingers unless necessary. Use knuckles/feet to open doors that can be. Keep hand sanitizer for times you do things like touch door knobs or gas pumps. If you get sick stay the fuck home and if it's a fever or you feel like you can't breathe go to the doctor. 

The got damn fed needs to get off it's ass and set up make shift testing/treatment centers ASAP. 

Over preparing now at worst means nothing big happens and it was all for nothing but life goes on like usual in a couple of months. Not over preparing now at worst means it runs rampant and overtakes our health care system leading to tens/hundreds of thousands or even million+ American deaths. 

Sorry the very real threat of a world wide pandemic has inconveniences but for fucks sake let's over prepare now instead of dealing with the fallout later.  

[Thetexashammer 1062]

13 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Worth repeating: epidemiological math using R naught and time to double shows that cutting social contact by 70-80% stalls the curve for new infections, as is clearly happening in China.  70-80% reduction does not mean locked into homes and surviving from a bunker of supplies.  Limiting going out and being around groups of people should start now.  You can still do most everything else per usual with heightened awareness around hands and coughing/sneezing distances.  Go to the store during off hours.  The big X factor is kids and school.  They pass it around at school and bring it right into the house.  Japan cancelled school until April.  I won't be surprised if we're there in less than two weeks.

Wall Street used to worship what we would call "quants". These PhD's would promise the universe, and very frequently, they delivered. Until they didn't. Because, from time to time, the underlying assumptions behind their models would be violated. It's something the rest of us like to call the "real world". 

You can model stuff and draw conclusions, but ultimately, your results must match the real world. And in this case, what we see a lot of are superspreaders. People who, to take one obvious example, might work as a flight attendant. Or a roving home health specialist. Whatever. The model isn't as robust as one might think, and we don't have time to test all of this out.

Second issue. If you restrict everyone more or less to their home for a period of time, fine. You've slowed the virus. You better have that vaccine ready, or else a month or two later when you let everyone out of their cages, and they commence to drinking and fucking and all those things humans do, the disease comes back in a massive way. 

The goal here is herd immunity.

 

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

12 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Worth repeating: epidemiological math using R naught and time to double shows that cutting social contact by 70-80% stalls the curve for new infections, as is clearly happening in China.  70-80% reduction does not mean locked into homes and surviving from a bunker of supplies.  Limiting going out and being around groups of people should start now.  You can still do most everything else per usual with heightened awareness around hands and coughing/sneezing distances.  Go to the store during off hours.  The big X factor is kids and school.  They pass it around at school and bring it right into the house.  Japan cancelled school until April.  I won't be surprised if we're there in less than two weeks.

Schools and churches and mass transit stations. Churches would be the easiest to close, as they are not a weekday child care service nor would their absence cause economic mayhem, but I bet they won’t close down either because of reasons. 

[Wally Fairway 5465]

2 minutes ago, Liquor and Poker said:

I have a virtually unlimited supply of water at my house right now if anyone wants to buy.

Thanks - but I'd rather make an offer on that unlimited liquor supply

[UTGrad98 2183]

12 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Worth repeating: epidemiological math using R naught and time to double shows that cutting social contact by 70-80% stalls the curve for new infections, as is clearly happening in China.  70-80% reduction does not mean locked into homes and surviving from a bunker of supplies.  Limiting going out and being around groups of people should start now.  You can still do most everything else per usual with heightened awareness around hands and coughing/sneezing distances.  Go to the store during off hours.  The big X factor is kids and school.  They pass it around at school and bring it right into the house.  Japan cancelled school until April.  I won't be surprised if we're there in less than two weeks.

I am agonizing over holding my son out this week. My wife just looks at me saying do whatever you think. Im not so much worried for him but for her. She has had a lung surgery, is a former smoker and has COPD/asthma. I dont want to be "that" parent though. Every person I am going to talk to will say Im being ridiculous and to send my damn kid to school. His spring break is the next week. We are in Flower Mound. I am feeling like Lt Kaffee and whether or not he should put Jessup on the stand.

[Junior Miller 1502]

6 minutes ago, Wally Fairway said:

While I agree with that article, it has nothing to do with the coronavirus, people are in a mob/herd mentality with buying water. There is no evidence that it is transmitted via community water sources.

What I'm saying is you can't trust American faucet water to drink in normal circumstances so if you think you might be quarantined and stuck in your home for a few weeks you'd rather have enough safe drinking water to not have to resort to unsafe tap water. It makes sense.  

The toilet paper thing though... That's just hilarious 

[Somnio 751]

2 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

Second issue. If you restrict everyone more or less to their home for a period of time, fine. You've slowed the virus. You better have that vaccine ready, or else a month or two later when you let everyone out of their cages, and they commence to drinking and fucking and all those things humans do, the disease comes back in a massive way. 

 

This is what I've been wondering about China's quarantine.  What happens when they end it, and everyone goes back to work?

[RayDog 682]

15 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

Worth repeating: epidemiological math using R naught and time to double shows that cutting social contact by 70-80% stalls the curve for new infections, as is clearly happening in China.  70-80% reduction does not mean locked into homes and surviving from a bunker of supplies.  Limiting going out and being around groups of people should start now.  You can still do most everything else per usual with heightened awareness around hands and coughing/sneezing distances.  Go to the store during off hours.  The big X factor is kids and school.  They pass it around at school and bring it right into the house.  Japan cancelled school until April.  I won't be surprised if we're there in less than two weeks.

China is lying, so there is no point in using their bad data to illustrate a "success" story. 

[conVINCEd 21468]

1 minute ago, Somnio said:

This is what I've been wondering about China's quarantine.  What happens when they end it, and everyone goes back to work?

Have they checked on all those people whose doors were welded shut?  Or are they gonna crack those doors open whenever and find a bunch of dead people?

[Junior Miller 1502]

Just now, UTGrad98 said:

I am agonizing over holding my son out this week. My wife just looks at me saying do whatever you think. Im not so much worried for him but for her. She has had a lung surgery, is a former smoker and has COPD/asthma. I dont want to be "that" parent though. Every person I am going to talk to will say Im being ridiculous and to send my damn kid to school. His spring break is the next week. We are in Flower Mound. I am feeling like Lt Kaffee and whether or not he should put Jessup on the stand.

Given your wife's condition it's of the upmost importance to you to take extra precaution. 

Think of it like this. You keep him out this week and he gets spring break the week after so you have 2 weeks to let things play out then evaluate where it's at. What's the worst that can happen from that decision? He misses some work? You can talk to the teachers and explain the situation and probably get him work to do at home. 

Option 2: you send him this week, find out the fed blowing the coronavirus testing strategy means it's far more rampant here than we know now so he contracts it and brings it home to you and the wife. Now her life is in jeopardy. 

Seems to me the worst case cost of sending him outweighs the worst case cost of not sending him. Just what I would do though. 

[UTGrad98 2183]

2 minutes ago, Junior Miller said:

Given your wife's condition it's of the upmost importance to you to take extra precaution. 

Think of it like this. You keep him out this week and he gets spring break the week after so you have 2 weeks to let things play out then evaluate where it's at. What's the worst that can happen from that decision? He misses some work? You can talk to the teachers and explain the situation and probably get him work to do at home. 

Option 2: you send him this week, find out the fed blowing the coronavirus testing strategy means it's far more rampant here than we know now so he contracts it and brings it home to you and the wife. Now her life is in jeopardy. 

Seems to me the worst case cost of sending him outweighs the worst case cost of not sending him. Just what I would do though. 

This is exactly my thought process. To the letter.

[Somnio 751]

3 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Have they checked on all those people whose doors were welded shut?  Or are they gonna crack those doors open whenever and find a bunch of dead people?

And I thought my job sucked.

[Thetexashammer 1062]

9 minutes ago, RayDog said:

China is lying, so there is no point in using their bad data to illustrate a "success" story. 

You can't even confirm their actual population to the nearest 100 million. It's not a like a few funeral pyres are gonna move the needle for them.

They're on a mission from God /bluesbrothers

[Mikey4 2475]

Also it took 23 days for wuhan to get to 571 cases from 1 case
 
its gonna take the US 10 days to surpass that number

The U.S. probably surpassed that number a week or two ago.

[InkaUtexas 24822]

As a cruise ship with nearly 3,000 stranded travelers prepares to dock Monday in the Port of Oakland, top health officials warned that the country has entered a new stage in dealing with the deadly coronavirus — one in which containment is no longer possible.

“We’re past the point of containment,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration during the first two years of President Trump’s administration, said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.”

“We have to implement broad mitigation strategies. The next two weeks are really going to change the complexion in this country. We’ll get through this, but it’s going to be a hard period. We’re looking at two months, probably, of difficulty,” Gottlieb said.

https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-03-08/grand-princess-cruise-ship-to-dock-in-oakland-some-passengers-quarantine-in-san-antonio

[Thetexashammer 1062]

9 minutes ago, RayDog said:

China is lying, so there is no point in using their bad data to illustrate a "success" story. 

You can't even confirm their actual population to the nearest 100 million. It's not a like a few funeral pyres are gonna move the needle for them.

They're on a mission from God /bluesbrothers

[Message Board User 12382]

 

[Message Board User 12382]

 

[triplehorn 2664]

19 minutes ago, RayDog said:

China is lying, so there is no point in using their bad data to illustrate a "success" story. 

The one thing that I notice is that over the last few weeks, and even end of January for Hong Kong, is that it's the health care and physician experts who are doing the talking, not Xi and other political types.  Not saying there's no influence, but there's hard science, statistical data, and medical experiences being shared by their professionals.  International medical and epidemiological experts are collaborating.  It's also now being reproduced outside of China.  I'm NOT seeing a whole lot of credible takes that there's a mass disinformation campaign coming out of China.  Not saying there's not, just that from what I can see that is science and medicine based, it looks credible and should be taken seriously to inform us about how best best protect ourselves as rapidly as possible.

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

20 minutes ago, Somnio said:

And I thought my job sucked.

Better than walking around and shooting radioactive dogs all day every day

[conVINCEd 21468]

4 minutes ago, Message Board User said:

 

Hopefully the fact that only 5%% have diarrhea will help curb tp hoarding.

[Message Board User 12382]

 

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

3 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Hopefully the fact that only 5%% have diarrhea will help curb tp hoarding.

That and the eventual lack of foodstuffs. 

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

Just now, Message Board User said:

 

Yup these should be up, powered, and ready. Military and civilian. 

[GreenspointTexas 9353]

Rice University cancels classes

[Message Board User 12382]

Iowa joins the club?

 

[Message Board User 12382]

 

[GreenspointTexas 9353]

Looks like that group of students that was under quarantine for the past week came back positive

[VABuckeye 2472]

NCL sent me this.  How about go fuck yourself NCL.  In good times I won't get on a cruise ship.

[Macanudo 12649]

7 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Rice University cancels classes

Well, their employees/students caused this Harris County shit.

I've spent the last 10 days stocking up on the essentials...  Beer, wine, booze and lube.  Plus some food too.

[Fudge Nuggets 18825]

3 minutes ago, VABuckeye said:

NCL sent me this.  How about go fuck yourself NCL.  In good times I won't get on a cruise ship.

Who the hell wants free kids?  Most of us would gladly sell at least one of our own for beer money.

[RayDog 682]

19 minutes ago, triplehorn said:

The one thing that I notice is that over the last few weeks, and even end of January for Hong Kong, is that it's the health care and physician experts who are doing the talking, not Xi and other political types.  Not saying there's no influence, but there's hard science, statistical data, and medical experiences being shared by their professionals.  International medical and epidemiological experts are collaborating.  It's also now being reproduced outside of China.  I'm NOT seeing a whole lot of credible takes that there's a mass disinformation campaign coming out of China.  Not saying there's not, just that from what I can see that is science and medicine based, it looks credible and should be taken seriously to inform us about how best best protect ourselves as rapidly as possible.

For days they have been reporting no new cases outside Hubei province. The only way that can happen is if they stopped testing or stopped reporting positive tests. Nothing the CCP says or allows to be published on the current status can be trusted. 

[atomheartbevo 88751]

Shit

https://www.bellevuereporter.com/news/life-care-center-of-kirkland-breaks-silence-at-saturday-press-conference/?amp&__twitter_impression=true

Quote

Since Feb. 19, Killian noted that 11 patients have died within the facility on top of the 15 at hospitals. He clarified that the center typically sees three to seven deaths monthly, and that there have not yet been any reports post-mortem whether those in-facility patients tested positive for coronavirus.

Quote

Our experience with this so far has shown that the virus is volatile and unpredictable,” Killian said. “We’ve had patients who, within an hour’s time, show no symptoms to going to acute symptoms and being transferred to the hospital. And we’ve had patients die relatively quickly under those circumstances…We know very little about how fast this may act.”

 

[GreenspointTexas 9353]

8 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Shit

https://www.bellevuereporter.com/news/life-care-center-of-kirkland-breaks-silence-at-saturday-press-conference/?amp&__twitter_impression=true

 

In line with a lotta the reports coming out from Italy as well

[FORTY NINE TO ZERO 2617]

So rice shuts down but not the rodeo?  Makes sense. 

[conVINCEd 21468]

Just now, Xian said:

So rice shuts down but not the rodeo?  Makes sense. 

Rice people are smarter than rodeo people.

[Deej 76081]

We're better off saving Rice people than rodeo people.

[Pato del Muerto 51914]

3 minutes ago, conVINCEd said:

Rice people are smarter than rodeo people.

Better food options at the rodeo, with more reasonable lines than ever before. 

[Aqua Buddha 13902]

 

[Bevo 13418]

2 hours ago, Beau Vine said:

I have discovered that my chances of not touching my face are about as high as the chances of a teenage boy not touching his penis.

I don't know what you are doing with your face, but it sounds gross.

[ShaggyBevo RIP 3827]

Schools and churches and mass transit stations. Churches would be the easiest to close, as they are not a weekday child care service nor would their absence cause economic mayhem, but I bet they won’t close down either because of reasons. 

Preschool at churches pay a lot of bills.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Bevo 13418]

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

the two places i have been most dreading hearing an outbreak...city slums in India and the Syrian refugee camps. 

millions, super crowded,  close quarters, lack of hygiene, probably poor health/nutrition already, limited medical care... im afraid that will look worse than Wuhan, all those poor people!

Maybe, but Wuhan is pretty third world. It ain't Beijing.

[triplehorn 2664]

35 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Our experience with this so far has shown that the virus is volatile and unpredictable,” Killian said. “We’ve had patients who, within an hour’s time, show no symptoms to going to acute symptoms and being transferred to the hospital. And we’ve had patients die relatively quickly under those circumstances…We know very little about how fast this may act.”
 

^^^ sounds like the virus traveling up nerve fibers from the lungs to the brainstem and shutting down respiratory drive —> ARDS.  I posted a medical article the other day about it.  Search neuroinvasion of covid.  People in China reported as acutely presenting with no spontaneous breathing.  

[UDontKnow 10439]

1 hour ago, mchookem said:

the two places i have been most dreading hearing an outbreak...city slums in India and the Syrian refugee camps. 

millions, super crowded,  close quarters, lack of hygiene, probably poor health/nutrition already, limited medical care... im afraid that will look worse than Wuhan, all those poor people!

This is an extremely ignorant take. India has been one of the nations that has actually been addressing coronavirus cases well from the get to go (initially only 3 cases and no deaths) and the recent increase has been after cases have risen in other nations like Iran and Italy. For its size, the current number of cases in India has been nothing short of remarkable (again with no deaths), considering India has been quick to bring its citizens in other afflicted countries back home as soon as possible. (Source: https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/02/the-latest-coronavirus-cases/)

Some details on India's response:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-51747932

India being a democracy (unlike China), a country that generally does not engage in large-scale animal production for human consumption (certainly not exotic animals), and having a government that is responding quickly (travel restrictions, setting up screening/surveillance in other nations) and at the moment, willing to ignore the economic impact in favor of public safety are some of the reasons it will weather the coronavirus pandemic better than most nations.