Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away

[MaybeACoordinator 8349]

4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

54 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

One thing I don't understand is how we in this state with hundreds of miles of coastline tend to bunch up on a few beaches. I don't like crowded beaches and by "crowded" I mean another car within 100 feet of mine. You can find plenty of beaches like that up and down the coast but people all seem to cluster on a few. 

Galveston is really close to Houston. South Padre is really far from everyone. Everything from SPI to Corpus/Port A is Padre Island National Seashore, a protected area. Everything between Corpus and Galveston is functionally the same, brownish water with a view of oil rigs, so people cluster at those two places which have all your amenities.

In terms of empty beaches I am thinking specifically of Surfside. East of the Surfside Beach city limits there is about 15 miles of beaches that are better than the west end of Galveston and just as easy to access for much of Houston as G-town and they are virtually empty. If you bring enough food and drink to last a day you don't need restaurants or stores and those are within 15 minutes from pretty much anywhere down there anyway. 

[justhookit 4159]

8 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

57 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

One thing I don't understand is how we in this state with hundreds of miles of coastline tend to bunch up on a few beaches. I don't like crowded beaches and by "crowded" I mean another car within 100 feet of mine. You can find plenty of beaches like that up and down the coast but people all seem to cluster on a few. 

Galveston is really close to Houston. South Padre is really far from everyone. Everything from SPI to Corpus/Port A is Padre Island National Seashore, a protected area. Everything between Corpus and Galveston is functionally the same, brownish water with a view of oil rigs, so people cluster at those two places which have all your amenities.

Yes and also all the beach between Port A and Freeport/Galveston varies from difficult to impossible to get to. Our enormous length of coastline is 99% undeveloped.

[freyguy 4237]

51 minutes ago, Prepuce of Doom said:

 

 

This is the kind of free speech I can get behind.

[Dahobbs 17088]

13 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

It wasn't someone somewhere. It was reported as a potential reality in every major news outlet.  the "reference number" had zero basis in reality and IMO was completely useless.  but we've gone from 2.2M to less than 100K so overwhelming success.

Again, we shouldn't ignore science just because the media might misunderstand it. Amazingly, it is possible to criticize the media for misreporting on science without demanding that science simply ignore important information.  Also, by reporting on it, the media contributed to preventing it from happening because it caused individuals/governments to act.

[Brisketexan 103143]

17 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

In terms of empty beaches I am thinking specifically of Surfside. East of the Surfside Beach city limits there is about 15 miles of beaches that are better than the west end of Galveston and just as easy to access for much of Houston as G-town and they are virtually empty. If you bring enough food and drink to last a day you don't need restaurants or stores and those are within 15 minutes from pretty much anywhere down there anyway. 

Kindly STFU, please.  You're gonna blow up my one chance to have a decent summer getaway.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

38 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

Even at 70%, thats still 2.3 million dead americans 

 

assuming 3000 dead a day over the next 15-18 months (what estimates were just revised to today) and u pretty much get that number also

Right. Which was my point in my back of the envelope math.  I've got my new revised number for this year and I'm betting on 300,000 or so.  Which sucks.  And is a 10% jump in expected deaths. But not what I initially feared (which would have been a doubling of expected yearly deaths), and not enough to turn our economy into a smoking ruin of a crater (in my opinion).  That 300,000 guess is assuming everyone more or less goes back to work more or less in the next couple weeks to couple months, while things like live concerts or in person sporting events are done with.  

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

20 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

In terms of empty beaches I am thinking specifically of Surfside. East of the Surfside Beach city limits there is about 15 miles of beaches that are better than the west end of Galveston and just as easy to access for much of Houston as G-town and they are virtually empty. If you bring enough food and drink to last a day you don't need restaurants or stores and those are within 15 minutes from pretty much anywhere down there anyway. 

And if you are too scared to shit in the ocean I don't want to party with you anyway. 

[dcar00 13861]

6 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Again, we shouldn't ignore science just because the media might misunderstand it. Amazingly, it is possible to criticize the media for misreporting on science without demanding that science simply ignore important information.  Also, by reporting on it, the media contributed to preventing it from happening because it caused individuals/governments to act.

Again, who is saying to ignore science?  Again, I'm saying ignore bad science...

[kevwun 15189]

You just choose to ignore anything you don't like or aren't comfortable with because you took a couple of stats classes in college.

Edited May 4, 2020 by kevwun

[Dahobbs 17088]

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Right. Which was my point in my back of the envelope math.  I've got my new revised number for this year and I'm betting on 300,000 or so.  Which sucks.  And is a 10% jump in expected deaths. But not what I initially feared (which would have been a doubling of expected yearly deaths), and not enough to turn our economy into a smoking ruin of a crater (in my opinion).  That 300,000 guess is assuming everyone more or less goes back to work more or less in the next couple weeks to couple months, while things like live concerts or in person sporting events are done with.  

Again, our choices aren't "turn economy into smoking ruin of a crater" or deaths. We can reopen the economy. We can reopen pretty much all businesses. We just have to do it right. So far, the re-openings are problematic because they aren't trying to do it right. They're just doing it. That is stupid. We shouldn't be stupid. Again, a well communicated and enacted plan will  (1) prevent deaths, (2) prevent hospital overrun, and (3) give citizens the confidence they need to actually get back to normal. Just saying "re-open" does none of those things. 

[Dahobbs 17088]

3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

Again, who is saying to ignore science?  Again, I'm saying ignore bad science...

It isn't bad science! Being poorly understood by you or the media doesn't make it bad science!

[Dahobbs 17088]

2 minutes ago, kevwun said:

You just choose to ignore anything you don't like or aren't comfortable with because you took a couple of stats classes in college.

I don't think he did. 

[dcar00 13861]

Just now, Dahobbs said:

It isn't bad science! Being poorly understood by you or the media doesn't make it bad science!

again, the London report was shitty science.  its not, poorly understood by me, it was a crappy shitfest of a model.

[smuggs 9304]

I prefer to be blinded with science.

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

3 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Again, our choices aren't "turn economy into smoking ruin of a crater" or deaths. We can reopen the economy. We can reopen pretty much all businesses. We just have to do it right. So far, the re-openings are problematic because they aren't trying to do it right. They're just doing it. That is stupid. We shouldn't be stupid. Again, a well communicated and enacted plan will  (1) prevent deaths, (2) prevent hospital overrun, and (3) give citizens the confidence they need to actually get back to normal. Just saying "re-open" does none of those things. 

That's like, your opinion man. If this thing is as infectious as it looks we are going to hit the high end of the range regardless of what we do.  Might as well get it over with as quickly as possible in as orderly a manner as possible, provided you can do that without destroying the medical community (which looks like you can).  Or at least let the people who feel this way go ahead and do that for you.  I'm essentially a walking volunteer for this.  That is, if I haven't already had it (I think I might have- my family got sick twice february/early march- wouldn't shock me if we got it). Which if I have already had it I sure as shit would like to be able to test to know that I did so I can walk around with the swagger of the immune.  After all, what's the point of gathering immunocapital if you don't use it. 

[Surly Bevo 24247]

4 minutes ago, smuggs said:

I prefer to be blinded with science.

Plastic tubes and pots and pans
Bits and pieces and
Magic from the hand

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

4 minutes ago, smuggs said:

I prefer to be blinded with science.

Wonderful post to username

[Brisketexan 103143]

5 minutes ago, smuggs said:

I prefer to be blinded with science.

Do you even weird science, bro?

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Do you even weird science, bro?

Someone somewhere was trying to say underboob is a current thing- clearly not in this case. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8780]

Even at 70%, thats still 2.3 million dead americans 
 
assuming 3000 dead a day over the next 15-18 months (what estimates were just revised to today) and u pretty much get that number also

You’d make a great case if there were 328 million long care nursing home residents in the country.

[Coelenterate Fuccboi 12928]

1 hour ago, RomaVicta said:

I wanted to find fault with it

At least you’re honest about being biased.

[MNLonghornFUKM 8780]

Remember when Wisconsin was going to blow up on April 7 after they held in person ballots?

 

They did have a drastic 19 death day 3 weeks after it on the 28th, but it has since trended down.

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

21 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Plastic tubes and pots and pans
Bits and pieces and
Magic from the hand

[Hugo Stiglitz 23245]

Went looking for pics of Americans with masks during the 1918 pandemic (my new fetish) and found this sparkly gem.

[gmr548 16252]

That's like, your opinion man. If this thing is as infectious as it looks we are going to hit the high end of the range regardless of what we do.  Might as well get it over with as quickly as possible in as orderly a manner as possible, provided you can do that without destroying the medical community (which looks like you can).  Or at least let the people who feel this way go ahead and do that for you.  I'm essentially a walking volunteer for this.  That is, if I haven't already had it (I think I might have- my family got sick twice february/early march- wouldn't shock me if we got it). Which if I have already had it I sure as shit would like to be able to test to know that I did so I can walk around with the swagger of the immune.  After all, what's the point of gathering immunocapital if you don't use it. 

This didn't really offer a counterargument at all. No one wants to prolong any of this for funsies. Everyone wants it over ASAP. Acting without the needed infrastructure and enforcement is a good way to end up back in lockdown because the spread cannot effectively be managed. You actually kind of highlight that point from the post you quoted with your anecdote about maybe being sick but not having reliable antibody testing. The plan amounts to "Fuck it, I'm bored, let's roll the dice."

[Brisketexan 103143]

1 minute ago, gmr548 said:

The plan amounts to "Fuck it, I'm bored, let's roll the dice."

Oh, so you DO know America....

[Trey3216 15298]

2 hours ago, Enchubben said:

First we waste money on coke and pepsi, and now airplane shows?   

Redundancy is redundant.  Since Pepsi is a type of Coke, you could’ve just said Coke and hookers, and airplane shows 

[Bruno Sardine 147]

https://www.ajc.com/news/state--regional/sick-georgians-avoiding-doctors-offices-due-fear-covid/4wLmeefvZaTyuBD7DXkeyK/

Anecdotal evidence warning: re total death counts and people failing to seek medical care due to fear of infection.
From the article: “The scene at Piedmont Atlanta Hospital’s emergency room is unlike anything Dr. Sean Sue has ever seen in his nearly 30 years practicing medicine. It’s quiet. Very quiet — in the throes of a COVID-19 pandemic. On some days, there are more physicians than patients. Looking out at the emptiness, “You’re thinking, where are all of the patients?” said Sue. “Where are the patients having heart attacks, strokes, diabetic ketoacidosis?”

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

2 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

This didn't really offer a counterargument at all. No one wants to prolong any of this for funsies. Everyone wants it over ASAP. Acting without the needed infrastructure and enforcement is a good way to end up back in lockdown because the spread cannot effectively be managed. You actually kind of highlight that point from the post you quoted with your anecdote about maybe being sick but not having reliable antibody testing. The plan amounts to "Fuck it, I'm bored, let's roll the dice."

 

 

OK. I like that better than the alternative that our superiors in the government will get around to telling us when we can venture outside and feel safe.  Because remember- this was to bend the curve. We've done that. Why aren't we all back outside again?  Why don't we have clear metrics for when the government will allow us our freedoms?  Once upon a time we used to take those freedoms from the barrel of a gun. I think those times are probably behind us but jimminyfuckingchristmas if the government wants to shut shit down they damn sure owe us an explanation as well as a time when the shutdown will be over.  The explanation we've gotten was "we need to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the hospitals".  We are an exporter now of PPE type equipment. We've clearly accomplished this in spades.  So, the rationale to make this happen is all gone and nobody can give me a new rationale, nor metrics to know when we will have achieved it and we aren't supposed to ask questions?  

I grew up swimming in the ocean, drinking from water fountains, having rock fights with my siblings and the neighborhood kids and with free range to use nothing more than my own good sense in a 10 block radius.  All those things could have killed me, I suppose. Probably about as likely as the Corona.  All those things allowed me to do was live my life, which is essentially what I want to see happen right now. When I couldn't do something I was given a why not and a what can I do to be able to earn that right/privilege/whatever.  The government isn't doing that.

Even though I like where Abbots head is at with this thing it's still not at all clear what we will have to do to progress from step 2 to step 3, nor what could trigger us backsliding into stage 1 again.  Seems like it's at his will. We are a constitutional republic not a monarchy.  That's too GD much power for an elected civil servant.  

[BabaYaga 15116]

15 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

 

 

This didn't really offer a counterargument at all. No one wants to prolong any of this for funsies. Everyone wants it over ASAP. Acting without the needed infrastructure and enforcement is a good way to end up back in lockdown because the spread cannot effectively be managed. You actually kind of highlight that point from the post you quoted with your anecdote about maybe being sick but not having reliable antibody testing. The plan amounts to "Fuck it, I'm bored, let's roll the dice."

 

 

#twomoreweeks...

[Texas Jeff 1908]

IHME just updated their model and added a few new features:

All of US: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america

Just Texas: https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america/texas

They are now estimating total infections vs reported infections and also showing social distancing and testing numbers.

[Loco 3752]

Arizona coming for Florida's crown

 

[Anastasis 23191]

54 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

We can reopen pretty much all businesses. We just have to do it right. So far, the re-openings are problematic because they aren't trying to do it right. They're just doing it. That is stupid. We shouldn't be stupid. Again, a well communicated and enacted plan will  (1) prevent deaths, (2) prevent hospital overrun, and (3) give citizens the confidence they need to actually get back to normal. Just saying "re-open" does none of those things. 

I see lots of example of people doing things right. I've been pretty impressed with the measures at the few places that I have gone over the last week.  People wearing masks and gloves running curbside.  Far too many people at the HD on a saturday, but at least they were wearing masks.  Did a nope on that one though, and went back during a weekday morning. Seen some jack assery as well, e.g. big group of high school aged kids doing high school aged kids thing at the gas store.  Did a "nope" and drove on.

 

[GringoSalado 1639]

21 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Went looking for pics of Americans with masks during the 1918 pandemic (my new fetish) and found this sparkly gem.

 

2,1,x,4,x,x,3

[C-Man 26535]

53 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That's like, your opinion man. If this thing is as infectious as it looks we are going to hit the high end of the range regardless of what we do.  Might as well get it over with as quickly as possible in as orderly a manner as possible, provided you can do that without destroying the medical community (which looks like you can).  Or at least let the people who feel this way go ahead and do that for you.  I'm essentially a walking volunteer for this.  That is, if I haven't already had it (I think I might have- my family got sick twice february/early march- wouldn't shock me if we got it). Which if I have already had it I sure as shit would like to be able to test to know that I did so I can walk around with the swagger of the immune.  After all, what's the point of gathering immunocapital if you don't use it. 

You can get antibody testing done through Quest Diagnostics now, at least in Dallas. Call your doc and they can order the test or if they won't, call Quest Direct and purchase the test yourself for $119. My doc ordered mine last Tuesday, I took it Wednesday afternoon and had positive results back by 1 AM Thursday morning.

[Loco 3752]

posted mainly for the picture 

[Loco 3752]

5 minutes ago, C-Man said:

You can get antibody testing done through Quest Diagnostics now, at least in Dallas. Call your doc and they can order the test or if they won't, call Quest Direct and purchase the test yourself for $119. My doc ordered mine last Tuesday, I took it Wednesday afternoon and had positive results back by 1 AM Thursday morning.

from Quest Diagnostic

Quote

Positive results may be due to past or present infection with non-SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus strains, such as coronavirus HKU1, NL63, OC43, or 229E.

https://www.questdiagnostics.com/home/Covid-19/Patients/

idk how prevalent the other coronavirus are...but that seems like an important caveat

[Wulaw Horn 18917]

8 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I see lots of example of people doing things right. I've been pretty impressed with the measures at the few places that I have gone over the last week.  People wearing masks and gloves running curbside.  Far too many people at the HD on a saturday, but at least they were wearing masks.  Did a nope on that one though, and went back during a weekday morning. Seen some jack assery as well, e.g. big group of high school aged kids doing high school aged kids thing at the gas store.  Did a "nope" and drove on.

 

And there you go.  Keeping yourself safe. Love it. 

[Brisketexan 103143]

5 minutes ago, Loco said:

posted mainly for the picture 

Mandatory mask policies may give the ugly strippers a boost in their income.  See, there ARE winners in this whole deal!

[InkaUtexas 24820]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Mandatory mask policies may give the ugly strippers a boost in their income.  See, there ARE winners in this whole deal!

Yeah, I always focus on the face. 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8780]

posted mainly for the picture 

Adrian said that ass looks familiar

[BabaYaga 15116]

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

OK. I like that better than the alternative that our superiors in the government will get around to telling us when we can venture outside and feel safe.  Because remember- this was to bend the curve. We've done that. Why aren't we all back outside again?  Why don't we have clear metrics for when the government will allow us our freedoms?  Once upon a time we used to take those freedoms from the barrel of a gun. I think those times are probably behind us but jimminyfuckingchristmas if the government wants to shut shit down they damn sure owe us an explanation as well as a time when the shutdown will be over.  The explanation we've gotten was "we need to flatten the curve so as not to overwhelm the hospitals".  We are an exporter now of PPE type equipment. We've clearly accomplished this in spades.  So, the rationale to make this happen is all gone and nobody can give me a new rationale, nor metrics to know when we will have achieved it and we aren't supposed to ask questions?  

I grew up swimming in the ocean, drinking from water fountains, having rock fights with my siblings and the neighborhood kids and with free range to use nothing more than my own good sense in a 10 block radius.  All those things could have killed me, I suppose. Probably about as likely as the Corona.  All those things allowed me to do was live my life, which is essentially what I want to see happen right now. When I couldn't do something I was given a why not and a what can I do to be able to earn that right/privilege/whatever.  The government isn't doing that.

Even though I like where Abbots head is at with this thing it's still not at all clear what we will have to do to progress from step 2 to step 3, nor what could trigger us backsliding into stage 1 again.  Seems like it's at his will. We are a constitutional republic not a monarchy.  That's too GD much power for an elected civil servant.  

Goalposts keep moving.  All in the name of "for your own good".  Let lower risk areas open of their own volition.  This is one part Sweden absolutely got right.  The majority of their people self-quarantined and took precautions.  They gave people the choice.  Do the same here before UE and loss becomes too great to mitigate.  

[Loco 3752]

5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Mandatory mask policies may give the ugly strippers a boost in their income.  See, there ARE winners in this whole deal!

Spoiler

 

[Johnny Sack 8397]

21 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

I see lots of example of people doing things right. I've been pretty impressed with the measures at the few places that I have gone over the last week.  People wearing masks and gloves running curbside.  Far too many people at the HD on a saturday, but at least they were wearing masks.  Did a nope on that one though, and went back during a weekday morning. Seen some jack assery as well, e.g. big group of high school aged kids doing high school aged kids thing at the gas store.  Did a "nope" and drove on.

 

I was at a grocery store in Freer, Texas yesterday and 100 percent of the customers and employees had a mask

[Cheeseweasel 26437]

8 minutes ago, InkaUtexas said:

Yeah, I always focus on the face. 

[Captainant 26861]

45 minutes ago, MNLonghornFUKM said:

Remember when Wisconsin was going to blow up on April 7 after they held in person ballots?

They did have a drastic 19 death day 3 weeks after it on the 28th, but it has since trended down.

I don't understand what you're trying to say here - Wisconsin expected a significant spike in deaths due to the single day of increased social interaction due to no mail-in voting, and then they indeed DID see a drastic increase in deaths in the expected timeframe. Of course it trended back down, it was a single instance of reduced social distancing. If anything, it validates and provides evidence that we can expect a spike in cases/deaths two to three weeks lagging behind loosening of social distancing.

I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks. Maybe the virus will figure out it's supposed to calm down now that it's getting warmer.

[BabaYaga 15116]

NYPD are back to being a model department.  Jesus Christ.  Better do what you are fucking told....

 

[MNLonghornFUKM 8780]

I don't understand what you're trying to say here - Wisconsin expected a significant spike in deaths due to the single day of increased social interaction due to no mail-in voting, and then they indeed DID see a drastic increase in deaths in the expected timeframe. Of course it trended back down, it was a single instance of reduced social distancing. If anything, it validates and provides evidence that we can expect a spike in cases/deaths two to three weeks lagging behind loosening of social distancing.
I guess we'll see in a couple of weeks. Maybe the virus will figure out it's supposed to calm down now that it's getting warmer.

I tried to post the graph but tapa is borked. and having a single high death of 19 is the spike the size of a pine needle. Very up down death days between 4-13 a day besides the one 19 day for all of April. Even the cases look like a seismograph, but I wouldn’t be able to tell they had any lapse of social distancing to vote if I didn’t know about it beforehand


I didn’t think it was that hard to understand

[Dbeasy 14733]

So is Austin getting flyovers from either group, the faggedy Blue Angels or the kick-ass Thunderbirds? (Dad was an AF fighter pilot and tried out for the TB’s so I have to hate the Navy. It’s math)

[InkaUtexas 24820]

5 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

NYPD are back to being a model department.  Jesus Christ.  Better do what you are fucking told....

 

So stopping them for social distancing yet off they go to Rikers to catch COVID.