Jump to content

Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


InkaUtexas

Recommended Posts

2.2M was never an outcome that was going to happen even if we didn't shut shit down.  thats the issue along with the media reporting 2.2M possible deaths(without give any real context).  we(as a people and a govt) were never ever going to do nothing.  it was stupid to model it, put it in the first page of your model report, and and it was stupid for the media to report it.
Just as asinine to put out a projection that was a result of doing nothing.  “Do Nothing” was never going to be the outcome and everyone knows it. People will always adapt, that is, until that change in behavior causes more pain than the original pain could have ever caused.  

You kind of have to make a projection assuming no action to then go on and evaluate the impacts of different actions. It's the starting point.
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

No one ever said it was going to kill 2,000,000 if we shut shit down. 2,000,000 was if we did nothing and behaviors didn't change. No serious projection said that was a "likely" outcome.

When I first started reading about this in mid January (I was way out in front of most in the real world because it was a faint echo that was disturbing the interest rate markets at the time) I did some back of the envelope math and got to a worst case scenario of 2.5- 3 million.  

Then, the London report came out and I thought the same. By the way- if the CFR actually was 2% I don't care what we do- I'd still expect 2 million deaths before this is all said and done- because it's not the social distancing or flattening the curve that has me feeling like we dodged a major fucking bullet it's the much lower CFR than we originally thought might be the case.  I was thinking Spanish Flu numbers were in play throughout much of February. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

If you were there to witness it aren't you part of the perceived problem?

I live in Port A you dumbfuck. I did drive the beach Saturday evening and parked to have a beer and I would have stayed longer but there were too many idiots. Probably never got within 20 feet of them though. And as I have repeatedly posted I don’t have a problem with the beach crowds.

Edited by justhookit
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

When I first started reading about this in mid January (I was way out in front of most in the real world because it was a faint echo that was disturbing the interest rate markets at the time) I did some back of the envelope math and got to a worst case scenario of 2.5- 3 million.  

Then, the London report came out and I thought the same. By the way- if the CFR actually was 2% I don't care what we do- I'd still expect 2 million deaths before this is all said and done- because it's not the social distancing or flattening the curve that has me feeling like we dodged a major fucking bullet it's the much lower CFR than we originally thought might be the case.  I was thinking Spanish Flu numbers were in play throughout much of February. 

Imperial College Report had an assumed IFR of ~1%, not 2%. I'm not aware of any projection that relied on a 2% IFR. The most reliable data right now shows a likely IFR between .3% and .7%, depending on the population. The anti-body studies done in California that suggested lower numbers were deeply flawed.  (https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/)

Edited by Dahobbs
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Homercles said:

All of this.  For my wife’s 40th we managed to go to Thailand, have a group outing with her friends and a nice family dinner.  When she asked about my upcoming 40th I said I want to be somewhere with no kids, alcohol and plenty of sexy time...those were the only things I cared about.  Mexico all inclusive resort fits that bill for me.  
 

Before this virus my motivation for regular staycations involved achieving those same three objectives.  Get my wife and I away from the kids so we can booze without responsibility, bang longer than a 10 minute quickie without worry of the 3yo trying to walk in and not have to be constantly breaking up fights between the kids.  Honestly just getting away from the kids ensures all three objectives are met.  

I think that's all the signs of a healthy marriage.  But I will take issue with 10 minutes as a "quickie".  My wife is dtf if she's in the mood at any point in time where we might have 3-5 minutes. 10 minutes- what a luxury. When she tells me "lets do this- go quick and make it happen" she's expecting 5 minutes or less. If I told her 10 minutes she'd say "pass" when it's 7:15 am and the kids could be up at any point in time, or when she drops a cereal bowl in front of the tv tray and locks the door on her way back in to the bedroom.

Totally and completely sexy that behavior is. Still, not going to complain. Mediocre sex trying to end quickly and keep quiet so the kids aren't disturbed in the next room is better than no sex at all. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

So it sounds like maybe these flyovers ARE NOT a waste of money.  Can somebody clarify?

I wanted to find fault with it, but I can't. They'd be flying anyway, so the budget thing is a wash unless you're against the program in general or would like to save the money. Both valid reasons, I suppose.

I'm swayed by the video of medical professionals cheering as the jets flew over NYC. It is a dramatic expression of national appreciation. If they like it on the ground, I'm for it.

I would also reserve resort islands in the Carribean and fly medical staff to them to recuperate if there is a break in the plague. If things should slow in August, send the medics and all hospital staff to the beach with free booze and massages. We owe them. We shouldn't short change them like we do our war veterans.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Onboard 2.0 said:

Nah, they're a great marketing tool for the military. They inspire kids who end up being future fighter pilots.

One of my son’s college buds got so fired up after seeing Top Gun, he joined the Air Farce and wound up in an ICBM launch bunker somewhere in the upper midwest.

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I live in Port A you dumbfuck. I did drive the beach Saturday evening and parked to have a beer and I would have stayed longer but there were too many idiots. Probably never got within 20 feet of them though. And as I have repeatedly posted I don’t have a problem with the beach crowds.

That escalated quickly. Perhaps you should go back to the beach by yourself and have another beer and take pictures of the idiots. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Macanudo said:

Uh, I'm gonna call bullshit on the people booking cruises being low risk.   Those boats will be full of old people and fat fucking wildebeest families that want to drink to excess and gorge on shitty Luby's quality food. 

I'd be shocked if those boats arent floating incubators of death and destruction.  The 10-14 day ones will see it in real time.  The 4-5 day ones will just spread it out and send it back to Topeka, Waco and Springfield where the mouth breathing knuckle draggers will end up sick and dying but by God, it was there inalienable right to do what they please.

I'll play the percentages then. With all those high risk people on the cruise I like my chances of being in the other 96% who aren't affected.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

One of my son’s college buds got so fired up after seeing Top Gun, he joined the Air Farce and wound up in an ICBM launch bunker somewhere in the upper midwest.

I guess nobody told him?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

It is a reference number. We need to know what a potential baseline is to know if (1) we should do something more or (2) we should actually encourage people to avoid material changes in their behavior (i.e., if the scenario where the most efficient outcome is actually not reducing social contacts). The scientific papers were clear on the assumptions that went into those estimates and why they were viewed as unlikely outcomes. We shouldn't ignore potentially useful information just because someone, somewhere might misunderstand it. That would be incredibly stupid

When I did my back of the envelope math (40-70% infection rate x 330 million people x 2.0% CFR) I figured that people would modify their behavior somewhat but I had absolutely zero appreciation for what Americans were willing to do to prevent deaths.  That's not good, bad, or indifferent.  I'm not sure that it was actually understood just how painful this would be  and in some respects I think we have been and are being hoodwinked as a society, but we clearly are willing to do more than I thought we were. I really think the only thing keeping this from being 2 million is the CFR being much lower than I initially thought it might be. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, justhookit said:

I live in Port A you dumbfuck. I did drive the beach Saturday evening and parked to have a beer and I would have stayed longer but there were too many idiots. Probably never got within 20 feet of them though. And as I have repeatedly posted I don’t have a problem with the beach crowds.

+rep for the surly response.  I feel like the second sentence negates the first sentence, but then the 3rd sentence gets us back on track with you being responsible, but the 4th sentence leaves me wondering about the utter pointlessness of it all (this conversation, life, the internet etc).  Would read again.  

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, justhookit said:

I’m here and I’ve been on the beach in person so I’m not going by the pictures. It’s really really fucking crowded and stretches of the beach are exactly like spring break. There are rules? LOL nobody is following them. That said it’s not why I posted those pictures. I have no problem with the beach being crowded and yes it’s very easy to keep to yourself if you want. Just don’t go into the grocery store or convenience store. You think any of these fucks brought a mask? It’s a zoo.

Regarding the small number of cases in Nueces county, and 7 here in Port A (that all were the result of being brought in from Costa Rica), that’s not the point. The issue is people bringing it in from other places. We were pretty damn comfortable here with no new cases in 3 weeks. Now, not so much. Whatever, I’m all for opening up like we are and giving this a chance.

One thing I don't understand is how we in this state with hundreds of miles of coastline tend to bunch up on a few beaches. I don't like crowded beaches and by "crowded" I mean another car within 100 feet of mine. You can find plenty of beaches like that up and down the coast but people all seem to cluster on a few. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

 

Imperial College Report had an assumed IFR of ~1%, not 2%. I'm not aware of any projection that relied on a 2% IFR. The most reliable data right now shows a likely IFR between .3% and .7%, depending on the population. The anti-body studies done in California that suggested lower numbers were deeply flawed.  (https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/)

I came up with 2 myself sometime in January or February looking at those numbers I guess from China and Italy.  I never read the imperial report, just heard the top line 2 million plus number, saw that it matched my back of the envelope math and figured we must be using a similar CFR. I guess the difference would be I must have had double the infections they did if we arrived at more or less the same number. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, Enchubben said:

If you two are going to turn this into a married sex practices forum the least you could do is follow the rules.

I don't even know how to post a gif or something that will show up as an avatar on my login so you are talking to the wrong moron asking for pictures of anything.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I don't understand is how we in this state with hundreds of miles of coastline tend to bunch up on a few beaches. I don't like crowded beaches and by "crowded" I mean another car within 100 feet of mine. You can find plenty of beaches like that up and down the coast but people all seem to cluster on a few. 

Never understood it either. Similar to grand stands at game that are full between the 30s but pretty sparse on the ends. I’ll sit/stand and see better for a game that doesn’t matter without being crammed with other people.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

One thing I don't understand is how we in this state with hundreds of miles of coastline tend to bunch up on a few beaches. I don't like crowded beaches and by "crowded" I mean another car within 100 feet of mine. You can find plenty of beaches like that up and down the coast but people all seem to cluster on a few. 

My guess is that it's because our beaches more or less suck.  The Texas Gulf of Mexico experience is worse than I ever had growing up going to the Pacific Ocean in California, or on any trip I've taken to the Gulf Coast anywhere else. 

Can you find worse spots?  I'm sure. I just haven't been to any of them, so I assume that there people congregate is the best of what we have. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

the Thunderbirds and Blue Angels are not performing any more joint fly overs. reads like more fly-overs will be planned:

 

Thought the plan from the beginning was AF cover West Coast since they fly out of Nevada, and Navy cover East Coast since they are based out of Florida.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I came up with 2 myself sometime in January or February looking at those numbers I guess from China and Italy.  I never read the imperial report, just heard the top line 2 million plus number, saw that it matched my back of the envelope math and figured we must be using a similar CFR. I guess the difference would be I must have had double the infections they did if we arrived at more or less the same number. 

If we assume a CFR of even 1%, then that likely means millions of American deaths

 

I wouldnt even discuss who is/isnt gonna get this. I think its safe to assume at this point that 90% of the country is gonna have it/have had it within the next year or two

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


You kind of have to make a projection assuming no action to then go on and evaluate the impacts of different actions. It's the starting point.

This. The first thing anyone would ask when measures start being discussed is what happens if we do nothing. 
there’s posters in this thread trying to tell us that if we as a people weren’t told about it, we wouldn’t even take notice. 
It’s the reference from which other numbers are compared. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

If we assume a CFR of even 1%, then that likely means millions of American deaths
 
I wouldnt even discuss who is/isnt gonna get this. I think its safe to assume at this point that 90% of the country is gonna have it/have had it within the next year or two

Year or 2? I’d say less than a yr.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

If we assume a CFR of even 1%, then that likely means millions of American deaths

 

I wouldnt even discuss who is/isnt gonna get this. I think its safe to assume at this point that 90% of the country is gonna have it/have had it within the next year or two

90% seems too high.  I wouldn't think it's likely to get above 70%- that's about the worst top end estimate I've seen.

Edited by Wulaw Horn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

I came up with 2 myself sometime in January or February looking at those numbers I guess from China and Italy.  I never read the imperial report, just heard the top line 2 million plus number, saw that it matched my back of the envelope math and figured we must be using a similar CFR. I guess the difference would be I must have had double the infections they did if we arrived at more or less the same number. 

Well, based on the fact that you said you used a 40 - 70% infection rate, it looks like the difference is that 2 million at 2% comes from the lower bound of your range and the Imperial College model ended up closer to your upper bound. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

90% seems too high.  I wouldn't think it's likely to get above 70%- that's about the worst top end estimate I've seen.

Even at 70%, thats still 2.3 million dead americans 

 

assuming 3000 dead a day over the next 15-18 months (what estimates were just revised to today) and u pretty much get that number also

Link to comment
Share on other sites

24 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

My guess is that it's because our beaches more or less suck.  The Texas Gulf of Mexico experience is worse than I ever had growing up going to the Pacific Ocean in California, or on any trip I've taken to the Gulf Coast anywhere else. 

Can you find worse spots?  I'm sure. I just haven't been to any of them, so I assume that there people congregate is the best of what we have. 

It’s mostly this. Some people do want to be 100’s of feet away from the nearest group and there are places you can do that. But most of the people that visit Port A or the other beach towns are here tp party and want to be close to other people, close to the stores for their beer run, and close to the hotel to use the restroom/pool/whatever.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, NeverMarryAStripper said:

She's not wearing scrubs so how do we know she's a medical worker?

Do you not consider strippers to be medical workers? Seems like an important healthcare service to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

One thing I don't understand is how we in this state with hundreds of miles of coastline tend to bunch up on a few beaches. I don't like crowded beaches and by "crowded" I mean another car within 100 feet of mine. You can find plenty of beaches like that up and down the coast but people all seem to cluster on a few. 
Galveston is really close to Houston. South Padre is really far from everyone. Everything from SPI to Corpus/Port A is Padre Island National Seashore, a protected area. Everything between Corpus and Galveston is functionally the same, brownish water with a view of oil rigs, so people cluster at those two places which have all your amenities.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Dahobbs said:

It is a reference number. We need to know what a potential baseline is to know if (1) we should do something more or (2) we should actually encourage people to avoid material changes in their behavior (i.e., if the scenario where the most efficient outcome is actually not reducing social contacts). The scientific papers were clear on the assumptions that went into those estimates and why they were viewed as unlikely outcomes. We shouldn't ignore potentially useful information just because someone, somewhere might misunderstand it. That would be incredibly stupid

It wasn't someone somewhere. It was reported as a potential reality in every major news outlet.  the "reference number" had zero basis in reality and IMO was completely useless.  but we've gone from 2.2M to less than 100K so overwhelming success.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ok, from a budgeting stand point, the flyovers make sense.

And I am a HUGE fan of flyovers.  Was supposed to see the Blue Angels over San Francisco Bay last October but had a family emergency and missed them by 15 minutes.    Saw them at Ellington a few years ago but I think over water would have been amazing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


×
×
  • Create New...