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Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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19 minutes ago, workswithseed said:

Seems fascist, also this. 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/new-york-city-to-implement-checkpoints-to-enforce-quarantine-rule

 

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Wednesday that he would implement checkpoints throughout the five boroughs to enforce the state travel advisory for people visiting from coronavirus hot spots.

"The checkpoints are going to send a very powerful message that this quarantine is serious. Even if we can't reach every single person, I think it'll get the message across," de Blasio said Wednesday.

And Andrew is asking for the rich to come back.

 

how do they get through the quarantine checkpoints?

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3 minutes ago, dcar00 said:

how do they get through the quarantine checkpoints?

The question is, why would they want to go through the check points? They have to wait 14 days afterwards. They already have the whole city pretty much closed, why the fuck would I even want to go there, or stay there?

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Seems fascist, also this. 

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/new-york-city-to-implement-checkpoints-to-enforce-quarantine-rule

 

New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio announced Wednesday that he would implement checkpoints throughout the five boroughs to enforce the state travel advisory for people visiting from coronavirus hot spots.

"The checkpoints are going to send a very powerful message that this quarantine is serious. Even if we can't reach every single person, I think it'll get the message across," de Blasio said Wednesday.

And Andrew is asking for the rich to come back.

 

It’s a good thing this thread doesn’t have any political commentary.

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5 hours ago, elfenix said:

fda advisor on npr yesterday doesn't think we'll get a vaccine by the end of the year because there isn't enough time left to finish the phase 3 trials

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/08/05/899411652/fda-adviser-not-realistic-to-expect-a-covid-19-vaccine-in-2020

Best case I think that we get a very limited EUA 4Q2020-1Q2021. Wide spread vax downstream from that. We are looking at late 2021 early 2022 as realistic base case return to normalcy.  I mean, if the vax actually work. 

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5 minutes ago, Anastasis said:

Best case I think that we get a very limited EUA 4Q2020-1Q2021. Wide spread vax downstream from that. We are looking at late 2021 early 2022 as realistic base case return to normalcy.  I mean, if the vax actually work. 

Well, the population can't maintain this level of restriction through late 2021 or early 2022.

So, assuming we will never have an effective vaccine-- what should our plan be?

 

 

Edited by utee94
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On 7/30/2020 at 3:57 PM, Superhero said:

ah, he said they slept poorly, coughed, had fevers > 100°, body aches, headaches, chills, no sense of smell, and dizziness. But THEY WERE ALL MILD!!!  He did say he felt okay enough to mow the lawn, and go out for a drive...

Wife's friend got it when she visited for grandfathers funeral.  She started like this for 3-4 days, then it came back and has wrecked her shit since then.  She's a rather large girl, and this isnt good for her.  Her 2 yo got it as well, but had minimal effects (visual effects, hopefully nothing internally that they are seeing) from it.   But she's been getting worse and worse for a week now.  Not great.  The other kids and husband have not gotten it, yet.  But your buddy should be cautious celebrating just yet. 

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2 minutes ago, utee94 said:

Well, the population can't maintain this level of restriction through late 2021 or early 2022.

So, assuming we will never have an effective vaccine-- what should our plan be?

 

 

If we never have an effective vaccine? Ever? 

The plan is anyone over 65 is gonna find out that life is a bitch 

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Best case I think that we get a very limited EUA 4Q2020-1Q2021. Wide spread vax downstream from that. We are looking at late 2021 early 2022 as realistic base case return to normalcy.  I mean, if the vax actually work. 

I hope you’re as wrong about this as you are about most everything else. No offense.
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7 minutes ago, Eskimohorn said:


I hope you’re as wrong about this as you are about most everything else. No offense.

I hope that I am wrong too, but don't really know what you are referring to. I hope that your brain damage resolves. Why don't you book mark it and we come back and reassess in 4Q2020. 

Edited by Anastasis
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Texas Florida and Arizona are also 3x the population as NY. So How bad was this shit spread out in April?
MN had a May peak in hospitalization and death but has put out 6 straight weeks of single digit deaths despite no significant case drop. Hospitals and ICU holding steady, well below May.



With Cali/Tx and Fl all have pretty much the same case slope as NY, and the entire nation combined wasn’t close to April’s death peak. Hell the nation combined matched just NY & NJs April’s death numbers. ~1400/day

CFR is plummeting. Means the IFR has to be dropping too
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23 hours ago, GRHorn said:

I’m gonna have to ask you to stop bringing these non apocalyptic numbers in here. Please. Think of the children. 
Kthxbai

160,000 are dead, motherfucker. There’s no such thing as non-apocalyptic numbers in the US anymore - too late for that. You’re so transparent. 🖕

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7 minutes ago, Onboard 2.0 said:

Well, whenever you can work apocalyptic into a sentence that's cool. That and gargantuan of course.

OK, I’ll bite. Not being concerned about 160,000 deaths in less than 6 months is gargantuanly stupid.  If we all whistle past the graveyard like that, the result will be apocalyptic. 

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Particularly when, looking at most of the Western World, half of our deaths could have been prevented.  

Time and time again, we are 5% of the world's population and nearly 25% of this planet's Covid-19 deaths.  That would be one thing if we weren't so wealthy, medically resource-rich, technologically advanced, and constantly telling one another how awesome of a job we're doing.  If Swaziland had 330mm people but 1/4 of the Earth's deaths...we'd all say, "well...that figures."  

Edited by Lobo
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Ah, yes the "Cases" argument.  We get it, man.  I'm just saying, for a nation of our wealth, health care, and leadership.  We should be 5% of the world's population and 5% of its deaths.  Probably even less than that, given our prowess.  Testing, cases, etc.  Those are reported done wildly different all over the world, even in the West.  What's not up for debate are dead bodies.  Those seem to be consistent all around the world, though we know China, Lesotho, and parts of Bolivia continue to report "Mostly Dead."  

Our deaths per 100,000 is still shit-tastic, we can't keep pretending we're one of the best in the world.  We're just not.  We're one of the worst in the world.  But when it comes to a nation of our wealth and prestige having 1/4th of the world's deaths...no matter anything about testing...it's awful and we should be ashamed.  

It's like infant mortality, yes on a scale of how many per 100,000...that's one metric.  But if you're a country that's 5% of the world's births (we're not, but you get where I'm going), and you lose 25% of the world's infants to death before 1-2 years of age.  It's not because of your testing/case method...it's because you have a 160,000 dead babies.  The virus, the dead bodies, et. al.  They don't care about the testing program of any particular set of borders.  

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1 minute ago, JimmyJames said:

Many people are saying that Florida no longer has any palm trees though. 

Little known fact, Saudi Arabia imports a huge portion of its sand from Australia.  Most pineapples aren't from Hawaii, they're from Costa Rica.  And most Florida palm trees are from Indiana.  A lot of them from Gary, West Lafayette, and East Chicago.  In fact, the Jackson 5 were originally palm tree farmers, but while they were singing on the tree farms to pass the time..a Motown talent agent overheard them and signed them to a record deal.  And the rest, as they say...is a whirlpool of history.  

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3 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Little known fact, Saudi Arabia imports a huge portion of its sand from Australia.  Most pineapples aren't from Hawaii, they're from Costa Rica.  And most Florida palm trees are from Indiana.  A lot of them from Gary, West Lafayette, and East Chicago.  In fact, the Jackson 5 were originally palm tree farmers, but while they were singing on the tree farms to pass the time..a Motown talent agent overheard them and signed them to a record deal.  And the rest, as they say...is a whirlpool of history.  

This is good information to know. 
 

Also Covid cases and deaths seem to be higher in the US than some other countries. Does anybody here have any theories as to why that might be? Are the South Koreans fudging numbers? 
 

Just generally curious. 

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5 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Do you actually believe that in a deaths per 100,000,  India is at 3.14, China at .34, Mexico at 40.66, Russ at 10.17 far lower than the US at 49.32 and UK at 70.08? That those countries health care is out performing the US that well?

I want to be clear, that my point is NOT how great a job the US is doing. Nor that there is a US or global political conspiracy. Rather, that these global comparisons en masse should end. Not because the US data is questionable, rather, the rest of the world'd data is extremely suspect in many, many cases. 

As a data driven nerd, when there are massively huge disparities as I noted above, I question the methodology and reporting of the data. 

We should wear masks, we should social distance, we should continue many of these things, but watching the same clearly, obviously and outstandingly bad data be used time and again as solid fact to point out how terrible the US policy is, in relation to the rest of the globe, has in large part kept me out of these threads. I'm in no way saying our engagement has been optimal, it hasn't. But the global bullshit, with the worthless data has to end. Comparisons to Canada, Australia, and European countries I take zero issue with at all. I do however, take issue with comparison of data provided from China, Africa, South and Central American countries, some of which clearly have various agendas, or just very, very shitty data methodologies/reporting and in some cases a combination of all (See China).

Okay, so throw out China, Africa, India, Russia, Mexico, etc.

Compare us to the Western First World who we trust and who has good data practices.

How are we looking now? Saying that those countries fudge their numbers is a red herring. We all know they're fudging their numbers. It makes absolutely no difference, though. It changes nothing. 

I mean I suppose you've changed the narrative from "America is the worst in the world!" to "America worse than the entire Western First-World, but China and Russia are bad too!"

I'm not sure what that accomplished. Was your goal to establish that we are essentially equal peers with the most ass-backwards, totalitarian, inhumane and corrupt countries on Earth? Alright then.

Edited by BradInATX
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2 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

Do you actually believe that in a deaths per 100,000,  India is at 3.14, China at .34, Mexico at 40.66, Russ at 10.17 far lower than the US at 49.32 and UK at 70.08? That those countries health care is out performing the US that well?

I want to be clear, that my point is NOT how great a job the US is doing. Nor that there is a US or global political conspiracy. Rather, that these global comparisons en masse should end. Not because the US data is questionable, rather, the rest of the world'd data is extremely suspect in many, many cases. 

As a data driven nerd, when there are massively huge disparities as I noted above, I question the methodology and reporting of the data. 

We should wear masks, we should social distance, we should continue many of these things, but watching the same clearly, obviously and outstandingly bad data be used time and again as solid fact to point out how terrible the US policy is, in relation to the rest of the globe, has in large part kept me out of these threads. I'm in no way saying our engagement has been optimal, it hasn't. But the global bullshit, with the worthless data has to end. Comparisons to Canada, Australia, and European countries I take zero issue with at all. I do however, take issue with comparison of data provided from China, Africa, South and Central American countries, some of which clearly have various agendas, or just very, very shitty data methodologies/reporting and in some cases a combination of all (See China).

How about South Korea? 

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4 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I would have to specifically deep dive into South Korea's policies to answer with any level of clarity or certainty. I think I provided a wide swath above, but it doesn't address SK directly. I'm not inclined to deep dive at this time, so in admitting ignorance specific to SK I will simply state: I don't know. 

Fair enough. I’ll try to look it up myself and report back. 

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15 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

160,000 are dead, motherfucker. There’s no such thing as non-apocalyptic numbers in the US anymore - too late for that. You’re so transparent. 🖕

You sound like someone who wants to continue to freak the fuck out despite encouraging statistics and trends. That’s your prerogative. You sound like you’d be miserable to be around in a daily basis. I think a lot of people are happy to see that things may actually be trending towards normal again.

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16 hours ago, DefinitelyNotHollywoodColt said:

Just do us a favor and don’t predict it’s going to subside in the fall, kthxbai Doctor.

I’ve never spoken in absolutes with regard to anything Covid related. I was wrong that in my guess that things stay calm in the summer, but it wasn’t like I came up with it on my own. On the other hand it’s not like the sun belt outbreak has matched the amount of deaths in the “first wave” of the Spring. In any case, I’m glad they have internet wherever you fled to.  

 

For the rest of the board here I’m curious if there’s been any examination anybody has seen of places that have had large flares and how they have done following them. Specifically have any of them had significant recurrent outbreaks? Like 1/4 of the size of the original ones? I’m thinking like Sweden, Italy, France, Uk, Spain, New York. 
 

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15 hours ago, Planet Houston said:

160,000 are dead, motherfucker. There’s no such thing as non-apocalyptic numbers in the US anymore - too late for that. You’re so transparent. 🖕

This is semantics and just a cold numbers assessment, but 50-60,000 Americans die every week. So you’re looking at 3 weeks worth and I don’t believe those all count as excess deaths above the norm. It is a sad situation and I think we could’ve done better, but fortunately I think few would call those relative numbers apocalyptic. 
 

I’m sensing your emotional response is due to a personal experience with it. I’m sorry, if that’s the case. Just looking at it from a big picture view. 

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An Executive Order was signed today:

  1.  payroll tax deferment,
  2. extending unemployment benefits,
  3. extending an eviction moratorium (on federally subsidized housing)
  4. deferring student loan payments and forgiving their interest.

Not sure he can do #1 and #2, particularly #2 since that involves actually spending money, and that has to be allocated by Congress.

Flip side is that this could spur Congress into action and wrapping up a stimulus bill, because this fall is going to look like the roller coaster chart from an aggy football season.

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8 minutes ago, BurntEyes said:

I hope and think you're right in it spurring Congress into action.

I hope your wrong on the aggy rollercoaster. Hope is a dangerous thing.

I know a lot of folks/businesses that are really hurting, and yeah, hope is hope and all, but I do hope it spurs Congress to wrap things up and get something out the door for those folks.

Maybe we can handle the fall much better than the spring/summer. 

edit: And a lot of people think that the eviction moratorium has authority over local housing, that Joe Blow working at the pizza joint and Walmart and renting in a privately owned apartment complex will be okay - it doesn't.  Only applies to federal subsidized situations.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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32 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

An Executive Order was signed today:

  1.  payroll tax deferment,
  2. extending unemployment benefits,
  3. extending an eviction moratorium (on federally subsidized housing)
  4. deferring student loan payments and forgiving their interest.

Not sure he can do #1 and #2, particularly #2 since that involves actually spending money, and that has to be allocated by Congress.

Flip side is that this could spur Congress into action and wrapping up a stimulus bill, because this fall is going to look like the roller coaster chart from an aggy football season.

Where is the money for extending unemployment benefits going to come from? 

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  • hayden_horn changed the title to Formerly DT: COVID-19 - Featuring Lots of Politics, now CR because political talk not going away


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