Jump to content

2020 Presidential Election -- Biden v Trump: Sleepy Joe vs Dopey Don [Results begin on page 409]


Patrick Bateman

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What starts here changes the world

That PPP?  They are owned by D right?  Or am I reading that wrong. Essentially is this any different than releasing an internal?   
and I’ve got Trump as low as 2/1 to win Texas so this wouldn’t be a huge shock to me. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, BrickHorn said:

Awarding Lou Holtz the medal of freedom is the stupidest thing ever. 

No it’s not. It’s not even the stupidest choice by trump for that medal. Rush Limbaugh has one too. 

 

58 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

No fucking way that’s real.  No fucking way. 

Edited by NameAlreadyInUse
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

That PPP?  They are owned by D right?  Or am I reading that wrong. Essentially is this any different than releasing an internal?   
and I’ve got Trump as low as 2/1 to win Texas so this wouldn’t be a huge shock to me. 

A little better than an internal, but yeah agree. I’m skeptical. Be thrilled though. And it’s achievable. And if Texas flips we get a better GOP overnight. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:And if Texas flips we get a better GOP overnight. 

Maybe. I hope it goes back to the party of W.  I’m not holding my breath. Dems gonna win anyway so if winning Texas can provide some long term good, good, I guess?  
I just want Texas to stay right of the national polling. As long as that happens IDGAF about anything else from a long term perspective. 
If Texas goes blue I’d give right of center people the same advice for national presidency that I give them for Harris County- abandon the GOP primary and vote strictly in the Dem for your favorite non nut, bc you got no chance of winning a general ever again. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Seasick Sailor said:

 

Yeah, this was the most obvious glaring siren that something was a bit wonky with the Selzer IA poll (aside from the hard to fathom Trump wrecking shop with 18-30 demographic.)

IA-01 is Cedar Rapids and Dubuque, very white but highly college educated. It's the epitome of a 50/50 swing district. Ernst won here by 0.4% 2014. Trump was +3 in 2016. Abby Finkanauer flipped the district blue with a nearly 6 point win in 2018. This would represent an absolutely apocalyptic 20 point shift to the right. There's no fucking way. 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On another note, in re that Iowa poll, as Nate Cohn pointed out earlier tonight, if there was a massive swing towards Trump in a state like IA, you'd see hints of it in nearby states.

This year’s Selzer poll looks a lot more like an outlier than the Selzer poll did four years ago. Back then, the Monmouth poll in September showed Mr. Trump up by eight points; this cycle, Monmouth’s poll in October showed Mr. Biden ahead. More broadly, national polling four years ago showed Mr. Trump running very well among white voters without a degree, who are overrepresented in Iowa. This year, polls show Mr. Biden doing far better among white voters without a college degree.

The Biden campaign certainly seems to think it’s doing well. Mr. Biden visited Iowa on Friday, and there’s not really any chance he’d be visiting there if the campaign didn’t think he was tied or ahead. Of course, campaigns have been wrong before. But so has Ms. Selzer.

No other indications of a last-minute surge. There’s another respect in which the Selzer poll is a bit of an outlier: It shows Mr. Trump gaining seven points compared with its prior survey. Four years ago, the Selzer poll was not alone in showing Mr. Trump picking up three points compared with a prior poll in early October, after the first debate.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

Fraud

  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

This is point no. 1 why I don’t believe in shy trump voters. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

 

Social media, Fox, Rush.

When these are your sources of news and other things in the world, your world view becomes pretty cloudy. 

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

Voter fraud.

I have a cousin that I used to think was an otherwise intelligent person, and as of at least last weekend, he thinks there is a good chance of a Trump sweep. Not just an EC win but literally sweep all 50 states. When I asked: "even California?" His response was: The polls are wrong, people are tired of how Biden handled the riots and virus (!), the economy is the greatest in history, and there is no way Trump can lose unless the election is rigged.

Not just different planets, but different realities.

Edited by ultimaton
  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

I’ve noticed Trumpkins everywhere like this. They’ve been trained in all bluster all the time.  Just puff out your chest and say “it’s going to be a crushing.”  It’s just follow the leader with Trump.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ultimaton said:

Voter fraud.

I have a cousin that I used to think was an otherwise intelligent person, and as at least last weekend, he thinks there is a good chance of a Trump sweep. Not just an EC win but literally sweep all 50 states. When I asked: "even California?" His response was: The polls are wrong, people are tired of how Biden handled the riots and virus (!), the economy is the greatest in history, and there is no way Trump can lose unless the election is rigged.

Not just different planets, but different realities.

A fraternity brother of mine, used to be quite good friends with, used to frequently go to Astros games together...etc. Haven't seen him much in the last 2 years, but still see his social media posts.

Got laid off from his O&G job 6 months ago and spends all day now on Twitter, soaking up Q-Anon brain poison and texting people with links to really obscure conspiracy shit. He tweeted out his prediction map yesterday:

Trump 380+. Flips NV, NH, VA, MN, NH, ME, NY, CT and NJ. CA Toss-up. GOP adds at least 5 Senate seats and House majority is GOP +20. 

I just can't even fathom the delusion. Genuinely concerned for the guy.

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Eastwood said:

I'm coasting this weekend because I'm going to be litty fuh-gitty on Tuesday night. And the 3 and 5 year old will be up bright and early at 6 AM like clockwork.

Nobody ever told me how little kids love to be up at early like clockwork.  That's the most jarring thing about being a parent with young kids.  Now I understood why my parents made sure I could operate the TV, and had a box of cereal on the kitchen table, so that they could sleep in on Saturday mornings.

 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, wildcat09 said:

It’s shit like this that makes it hard to imagine how we avoid a civil war. It’s beyond obvious that the majority of Republicans want one. 

They don't.  For all of their bluster, they couldn't handle wearing a little fucking piece of fabric, they couldn't handle not eating at Applebees or getting their hair cut.  Biggest bunch of fucking snowflakes I've ever seen, and ashamed that I used to be one of them.

An actual civil war means they lose their bank accounts, their power, their internet access, fuel for their vehicles.  If they can't handle going without a fucking haircut from a barber or salon, they can't handle any of that.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

Maybe. I hope it goes back to the party of W.  I’m not holding my breath. Dems gonna win anyway so if winning Texas can provide some long term good, good, I guess?  
I just want Texas to stay right of the national polling. As long as that happens IDGAF about anything else from a long term perspective. 
If Texas goes blue I’d give right of center people the same advice for national presidency that I give them for Harris County- abandon the GOP primary and vote strictly in the Dem for your favorite non nut, bc you got no chance of winning a general ever again. 

The party of W was a myth in hindsight, and Iraq gave us a peak behind the curtain.  All of what the GOP claims to have stood for in the past was pretty much a myth - Newt told us as much back in the 90s, it's just we didn't realize it, we thought we were winning one for the little guy in standing up to the Clinton Mafia.  It's a party that only gives a fuck about their richest donors.  They just did a good job of conning a lot of us younger folks in Texas back in the 80s and 90s.

The Texas GOP needs to fall apart, and be completely rebuilt as an actual party of conservatives.

The good news is, the Texas GOP is looking to start eating its own soon.  We've already seen Paxton/Patrick/etc. turning against Abbott.  We've seen Patrick laying the groundwork to sideline George P. Bush.  And they all realize that Paxton is dead weight and needs to go, they just haven't figured out how to keep the Dems from jumping into that void in 2022 (or who can fill that void).  And if the Dems take the House in Texas, you'll see things go into an absolutely feeding frenzy.

It's going to be glorious that a fucking Maryland born-and-raised carpet bagger is potentially going to help wreck everything.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some random Twitter account tweeted out earlier tonight that ABC/WAPO was about to release some bad polls for Biden. Liberal Twitter, as always, freaked the fuck out.

Well here are those "terrible" results:

FL: Trump +2 (50-48). +2 Biden since last round

PA: Biden +7 (51-44). +2 Trump since last round.

Statistical noise with no real overall change. What a disaster!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

38 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Final note for the night:

I was already aware of this phenomenon, but today really reinforced how jarring it is to me. I was watching football at a friend's house with a bunch of LSU guys, all of whom have graduate degrees, including a handful of MDs. The thing that really stuck out to me was their absolute confidence that Tuesday will be a utter Trump Landslide. As in, they were sitting around debating whether Trump would win only 35 states or if he could get to 40, and whether or not he could top 400 electoral votes. MI, PA, WI were all deemed Solid Red and the only real debate was whether MN would flip and if so, by how much.

I feel like I live on a different planet. Like, I'm mentally prepared to entertain the  ~10% chance that Trump barely squeaks by while GOP Senate majority narrows down to 51/49 and House stays blue. But these guys were licking their chops at a Reagan-esque domination and accompanying congressional tsunami. I'm sitting here bewildered at how they'll rationalize things if things turn out as polls indicate. 

Apparently, they are not nearly as educated as you think.  Just saying.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

Some random Twitter account tweeted out earlier tonight that ABC/WAPO was about to release some bad polls for Biden. Liberal Twitter, as always, freaked the fuck out.

Well here are those "terrible" results:

FL: Trump +2 (50-48). +2 Biden since last round

PA: Biden +7 (51-44). +2 Trump since last round.

Statistical noise with no real overall change. What a disaster!

Not fake - has Trump +2 in Florida and Biden +7 in Pennsylvania.

https://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1216a62020StateBattlegrounds-FLPA.pdf

Edited by The Dog
Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Bama Chick said:

Texas GOP doubling down on the crazy shit he said to The Texas Tribune.

They’re bragging about it.

4c33f3706baa73b46753f91925152374.jpg
 

The Texas GOP is living in a land that doesn’t exist. I’m flabbergasted this is real. It’s like they elected Sara Huckabee’s crazy uncle to be in charge. How much further will it go before rational Republicans wake up and tell their team to get their shit together?  Does it happen at all?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

ABC is an A+ pollster but they said Biden was up +17 in Wisconsin.
It's silly season for the next 72 hours.

A poll’s MOE is the MOE at a 95% confidence. That means that 1 out of 20 polls should be expected to be outside the MOE.

We just have so many polls out right now that you’re going to see some of that 5% that are outside the MOE. And frankly, it’s good that we see those, because it indicates that pollsters are playing it straight and aren’t herding.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Ghost of LL said:


A poll’s MOE is the MOE at a 95% confidence. That means that 1 out of 20 polls should be expected to be outside the MOE.

We just have so many polls out right now that you’re going to see some of that 5% that are outside the MOE. And frankly, it’s good that we see those, because it indicates that pollsters are playing it straight and aren’t herding.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Stop quoting Nate Silver dude you and I listen to the same podcasts. ;)

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Reminder: Hillabeast lost Williamson and Hays.

True statement.

So what are you saying? That Biden will win these this time showing this is evidence this claim is true OR are you saying this indicates that Trump will outperform Ted Cruz and be able to win those counties again? Or something else?

Link to comment
Share on other sites



×
×
  • Create New...