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Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls


texifornia

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7 minutes ago, NoName said:

what are you talking about?

Texas had a winning % of 81% with game on paper when TTU scored their first TD. ESPN had it at 79.4% for Texas.

here is the win prob chart for the whole game from game on paper

Exactly. They used the clock to their advantage.

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TTU averaged 4.8 yards per play and 3.6 yards per rush.

Texas had a 12% success rate advantage, more big plays, and an expected turnover advantage which wins the game ~98% of the time.

Right. We scored more quickly. They deliberately used clock and tried to take away scoring opportunities. They did not have a talent advantage so they used the tools at their disposal. It's called "coaching."

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2 hours ago, Codaxx said:

Not sure I understand that. Texas ran 24 offensive plays prior to the last possession in the 2nd half. They ran 13 running plays (taking out Card's scramble). That is 13 runs and 11 passing plays. 2 runs went for 5 or more yards (Bijan went for 40 on TD). 10 of the 13 runs went for 2 yards or less. 13 runs for 59 yards sounds solid, but 40 were on 1 play. The other 12 went for 18 yards. Hard to "control the clock", if your run game is getting stuffed at the LOS.

Clock control is also on the defense getting the opposing offense off the field. Which we failed to do in dismal fashion against Tech. As was pointed out, a high success rate is not as meaningful when your opponent is running so many more plays than you are.

BC's model may chalk 6/8 on 4th down and 13/28 on 3rd/4th downs combined up to luck, but we can actually see the plays. We conceded short throws to vacated zones all day on 3rd and 4th down, and also committed multiple dumb penalties. TTU's quarterback lit us up with chain-moving throws because that's exactly what our defensive coaching allowed him.

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8 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I’m in Seaside on the beach. Had to head in to the house early to deal with some work-related stuff. About an hour later, my wife comes in with the four kids. She decided that it would be funny to buy the 7 and 9 year old lunatics a kazoo each. They’ve been driving me insane for an hour. 

So, I think to myself, “I’ll take a break for a minute. Go out on the porch, get the fresh air, maybe check out the recruiting board on Surly. “ 

You God damned motherfuckers. This Texas Tech 2022 game rehashing in the most pedantic ways possible makes me want to vomit. I’d rather listen to a couple of wild ass idiot kids making as much irritating noise as possible than read that shit. 

Ralph Fiennes Ruin GIF by Searchlight Pictures

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47 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

 

image.png.8d5f2e2560dce8c17505e158ea1bd197.png

 

 

F Ketch, but the underlying issue is one I've been concerned about - the dilution of the "4-star" ranking (and 3 star too, I suppose).

- You have around 32 5 stars (currently 34 in the composite)

- 4 stars extend to ~ 448.  So around 414 4 stars.

- The quality of recruits ranked in the 40s/50s/60s is way different from those ranked in the high 300s and low 400s.

 

If the industry could just move to a consistent and reasonable definition, star rankings would once again regain their meaning.  

I don't care about the NFL, but since they do, one option - since they seem to obsess over the NFL - is to divvy up the 256 or so picks (regular plus compensatory) across the star rankings:

- 1st round - 32 recruits - 5 stars

- 2nd/3rd rounds - next 70 ish - 4 stars

- 4th through 7th rounds - (150 ish) - 3 stars

Remainder - 2 or below.

I suppose the risks would be a)  greater likelihood of analysts missing b)  schools bummed over not getting artificially inflated 4/3 stars.  Crap.

 

 

You're overthinking it. There are 10,625 D1 football scholarships available each season and each recruiting class is intended to replace ~1/4 of a team's 85 available scholarships. 

If there are ~450 4*/5* prospects, only ~17% of the 2656 available scholarships will be filled by one. If that were closer to 25-30%, I would agree, but when it's < 1 in 5 prospects, you can't really argue that it's diluted. Especially because the 5* count is artificially capped. 

 

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43 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Welp, I guess this thread got Texas Pete'd.

 

I made a statement based on the facts of the game and how our HC handles offense generally. Not sure what the fuck you want.

I did not say shit about abandoning the run. Maybe this would be easier if you and Codaxx actually read posts before replying to them. Judging by your frequent misspellings, you may need help with dyslexia.

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Just now, Tex Pete said:

Not sure what the fuck you want.

 

16 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I’d rather listen to a couple of wild ass idiot kids making as much irritating noise as possible than read that shit. 

 

43 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

P.S. the football board is *that* way. 

Idk why not

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23 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I’m in Seaside on the beach. Had to head in to the house early to deal with some work-related stuff. About an hour later, my wife comes in with the four kids. She decided that it would be funny to buy the 7 and 9 year old lunatics a kazoo each. They’ve been driving me insane for an hour. 

So, I think to myself, “I’ll take a break for a minute. Go out on the porch, get the fresh air, maybe check out the recruiting board on Surly. “ 

You God damned motherfuckers. This Texas Tech 2022 game rehashing in the most pedantic ways possible makes me want to vomit. I’d rather listen to a couple of wild ass idiot kids making as much irritating noise as possible than read that shit. 

Surfside? Any recruits at Pirate's Beach?

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14 minutes ago, Tex Pete said:

I made a statement based on the facts of the game and how our HC handles offense generally. Not sure what the fuck you want.

I did not say shit about abandoning the run. Maybe this would be easier if you and Codaxx actually read posts before replying to them. Judging by your frequent misspellings, you may need help with dyslexia.

First, I think I speak for most of this thread when I say what the fuck we want would be for you to stop fucking talking about this stupid topic. If that's impossible, a close second would be for your post with "facts of the game" to actually include facts. Pro Tip: Facts don't include statements like "Well I feel if this drive went differently the game would have gone differently." Implying how we went away from the run when we didn't, but just sucked at it, would be another example. But please, lets stick to the first point of "Stop fucking up this fucking thread." 

Oooh, mocking my typos. Man, you really know how to hit me where it hurt where I give zero fucks, because if I gave a fuck I'd actually spend more time proof-reading my fucking posts when I'm typing on my phone. 

Read the fucking room, and I say that as someone who has derailed more than my fair share of threads by being a stubborn motherfucker who won't let go of an issue either. No one here is agreeing with you, except maybe Satya which is also its own warning sign. No one is rushing to your defense. Groups of people aren't throwing themselves into this spirited conversation to debate this topic. Because the topic sucks, the conversation sucks, your opinion seems to be a minority one, and you're doing a shitty Randolph Duke impersonation. When people start dropping endless gifs about how the thread has become a punch to the seeds, maybe you’re not showering yourself in glory. In fact, it’s piss. 

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6 hours ago, texifornia said:

satya is BACK baby!

Lol. I've kept my mouth shut about it, but there are some ominous similarities between this preseason and the 2019 one. We're again getting hyped up by the media a ton compared to what's realistic with our roster. Lots of departing starters from the front 7. Big loss in rushing production from the offensive side of the ball. Returning QB with very big expectations. Etc. Even in recruiting we're seeing a bigger divergence than normal between the top in-state recruits and the guys we're landing/pursuing, which means a return to the Herman days of hoping our evaluations hit on a lot of 3-stars/borderline 4-stars, an approach that was disastrous for the 2019 class.

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9 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Lol. I've kept my mouth shut about it, but there are some ominous similarities between this preseason and the 2019 one. We're again getting hyped up by the media a ton compared to what's realistic with our roster. Lots of departing starters from the front 7. Big loss in rushing production from the offensive side of the ball. Returning QB with very big expectations. Etc. Even in recruiting we're seeing a bigger divergence than normal between the top in-state recruits and the guys we're landing/pursuing, which means a return to the Herman days of hoping our evaluations hit on a lot of 3-stars/borderline 4-stars, an approach that was disastrous for the 2019 class.

 

Fuckoff GIF | Gfycat

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28 minutes ago, satyanash said:

Lol. I've kept my mouth shut about it, but there are some ominous similarities between this preseason and the 2019 one. We're again getting hyped up by the media a ton compared to what's realistic with our roster. Lots of departing starters from the front 7. Big loss in rushing production from the offensive side of the ball. Returning QB with very big expectations. Etc. Even in recruiting we're seeing a bigger divergence than normal between the top in-state recruits and the guys we're landing/pursuing, which means a return to the Herman days of hoping our evaluations hit on a lot of 3-stars/borderline 4-stars, an approach that was disastrous for the 2019 class.

I'm actually kind of with you on the OOS recruiting red flags, but Bo and Flood are much more trustworthy than Giles and Hand. And guys like Baker and McKinley would completely make the point moot. Plus, Herman just straight up never had access to guys like Simmons. Let's revisit this in January. 

But that's kind of where the real similarities end. 2019 was coming off better results, but we return a lot more experience, production, and proven talent than that team. In 2019 we replaced a bunch of starters: 2 OL, 2 WRs, 2 LBs, 3 DL, and 2 DBs. This year we replace our RB, a LB, 3DL, and 2 DBs. So, 1) we're replacing less and 2) we generally have more experience stepping into those spots (RB, LB, and WDE being the exceptions). We're not looking to improve through addition by subtraction (e.g., not having to pay the Kris Boyd tax because Jamison will be so awesome now that he's moving back to corner). 

I get you have a rep for taking the negative side, but there's a lot less projection this year compared to 2019. That said, the expectations are much higher. It's very possible we can be a better team by not imploding to go 7-5, but still disappoint this year. 

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10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Because he was an unilkable prick, we hadn’t announced for the SEC, and NIL didn’t exist. 

Could you imagine the Kendra Scott NIL. Collin Simmons just decked out in ghastly emaralds because its his birth month (dont fact check me on this)

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19 minutes ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

I'm actually kind of with you on the OOS recruiting red flags, but Bo and Flood are much more trustworthy than Giles and Hand. And guys like Baker and McKinley would completely make the point moot. Plus, Herman just straight up never had access to guys like Simmons. Let's revisit this in January. 

But that's kind of where the real similarities end. 2019 was coming off better results, but we return a lot more experience, production, and proven talent than that team. In 2019 we replaced a bunch of starters: 2 OL, 2 WRs, 2 LBs, 3 DL, and 2 DBs. This year we replace our RB, a LB, 3DL, and 2 DBs. So, 1) we're replacing less and 2) we generally have more experience stepping into those spots (RB, LB, and WDE being the exceptions). We're not looking to improve through addition by subtraction (e.g., not having to pay the Kris Boyd tax because Jamison will be so awesome now that he's moving back to corner). 

I get you have a rep for taking the negative side, but there's a lot less projection this year compared to 2019. That said, the expectations are much higher. It's very possible we can be a better team by not imploding to go 7-5, but still disappoint this year. 

247Sports' old rankings are becoming frustratingly useless, but from what I can tell we landed just four of the top 25 in-state recruits in the 2019 class. Thus far we have zero for 2024, despite the fact that it's already July. We have four main targets in Simmons, Black, Ivy and Gipson but there's going to be a similar reliance on OOS guys.

Regarding returning production, the impact sometimes goes beyond just starters. People forget that in 2019 we actually did improve a lot on offense, both in the passing and rushing attack, but it was all for naught because of what we lost on the defensive side of the ball, through depth chart attrition + injuries. On the ground we lost Tre Watson who was 37% of our rushing production, plus Andrew Beck who didn't put up much in terms of stats but was an excellent blocker and made our O-line look a lot better than it was. This year we're losing 87% of our rushing production, including a guy who led all P5 RBs in yards after contact and again, made our O-line look a lot better than it realistically was. I'll spare the statistical details, but Bijan + Rojo were more or less our entire offense over the final four-game stretch of the regular season. Ewers will have to take a big leap this year, without either of them to lean on, just for our offense to stay at the same level as 2022. To surpass it? An even bigger leap. It's a very tall ask. And that's not getting into the loss of defensive experience with guys like Coburn, Ojomo, DTD, and Overshown gone.

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The Huddle: More recruiting notes ahead of key decisions

Hudson Standish

 

Spoiler

 

The Huddle: More recruiting notes ahead of key decisions

Hudson Standish
 

— A number of Texas Longhorns targets will publicly decide in the next few weeks with Wednesday and Thursday announcements from defensive line priorities Melvin Hills and Jayden Jackson leading the way. Sources have continued to echo positive sentiment regarding Hills ahead of tomorrow's announcement, while it's been difficult to get a clear read on Jackson with Ohio State and Miami both equaling the Longhorns' pursuit level approaching the Thursday decision on the 247Sports YouTube Page.

— Yesterday Marrero (LA) John Ehret cornerback Wardell Mack released a top four schools list of Texas, Florida, LSU, and Florida State. The top four list wasn't a surprise and just made public knowledge of what we've been reporting for a while regarding the schools that are truly in the mix for the Top247 prospect. As I mentioned in The Stampede yesterday, Texas is clearly the hot team in Mack's recruitment however as Hank and I both reported a potential trip to Florida was on the table. A source I spoke to today confirmed that Mack plans to make trips to Florida and LSU once the dead period ends and will likely make a decision shortly afterward but at the very least before John Ehret opens their 2023 season. 

— Another priority defensive lineman that will commit during the month of July is Orlando (FL) Jones three-star D'Antre Robinson. Robinson scheduled his decision date for July 21st and the read I got speaking with a source in Austin is that Texas is in pole position for the 6-foot-4, 300-pounder leading up to next week's commitment. Robinson was categorized by the same source in the month of June as a significant Florida lean, but Robinson's Texas official visit with rave reviews of the program from former Orlando Edgewater teammate Cedric Baxter along with Florida adding a ton of bodies on the defensive line in the 2024 cycle led to an opening that Bo Davis and Co. have taken advantage of. Robinson has become even more of a priority for Texas considering his "SEC-Ready" frame compared to some of the other targets Texas is in the mix for on the defensive line outside of five-star Dominick McKinley.

 

 

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1 hour ago, Bodacious Bevo said:

I'm actually kind of with you on the OOS recruiting red flags, but Bo and Flood are much more trustworthy than Giles and Hand.

I understand Bo’s reputation, but defensive line recruiting has been a borderline dumpster fire since he got here. Which is a shame since it’s one of the few position groups fuckface actually left in relatively ok shape with Coburb, Sweat, Ojomo and Collins. 

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44 minutes ago, Getafix said:

 

The Huddle: More recruiting notes ahead of key decisions

Hudson Standish

 

  Hide contents

 

The Huddle: More recruiting notes ahead of key decisions

Hudson Standish
 

— A number of Texas Longhorns targets will publicly decide in the next few weeks with Wednesday and Thursday announcements from defensive line priorities Melvin Hills and Jayden Jackson leading the way. Sources have continued to echo positive sentiment regarding Hills ahead of tomorrow's announcement, while it's been difficult to get a clear read on Jackson with Ohio State and Miami both equaling the Longhorns' pursuit level approaching the Thursday decision on the 247Sports YouTube Page.

— Yesterday Marrero (LA) John Ehret cornerback Wardell Mack released a top four schools list of Texas, Florida, LSU, and Florida State. The top four list wasn't a surprise and just made public knowledge of what we've been reporting for a while regarding the schools that are truly in the mix for the Top247 prospect. As I mentioned in The Stampede yesterday, Texas is clearly the hot team in Mack's recruitment however as Hank and I both reported a potential trip to Florida was on the table. A source I spoke to today confirmed that Mack plans to make trips to Florida and LSU once the dead period ends and will likely make a decision shortly afterward but at the very least before John Ehret opens their 2023 season. 

— Another priority defensive lineman that will commit during the month of July is Orlando (FL) Jones three-star D'Antre Robinson. Robinson scheduled his decision date for July 21st and the read I got speaking with a source in Austin is that Texas is in pole position for the 6-foot-4, 300-pounder leading up to next week's commitment. Robinson was categorized by the same source in the month of June as a significant Florida lean, but Robinson's Texas official visit with rave reviews of the program from former Orlando Edgewater teammate Cedric Baxter along with Florida adding a ton of bodies on the defensive line in the 2024 cycle led to an opening that Bo Davis and Co. have taken advantage of. Robinson has become even more of a priority for Texas considering his "SEC-Ready" frame compared to some of the other targets Texas is in the mix for on the defensive line outside of five-star Dominick McKinley.

 

 

Hills, January, Robinson, Jackson, Hills, and McKinley. We aren't taking 6. So, I assume we will take any 4 of the first 5 and if McKinley joins, probably 1 will decommit. So, I am expecting a 4 person interior DL class.

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1 hour ago, RGBIII said:

Could you imagine the Kendra Scott NIL. Collin Simmons just decked out in ghastly emaralds because its his birth month (dont fact check me on this)

Ummm, not to fact check you or anything, but there are no emeralds. Kendra Scott sells costume jewelry that's mostly worthless garbage. There's not a single precious stone anywhere in her collection. It's a miracle she became as rich and famous as she did with mediocre, overpriced jewelry.

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3 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

Ummm, not to fact check you or anything, but there are no emeralds. Kendra Scott sells costume jewelry that's mostly worthless garbage. There's not a single precious stone anywhere in her collection. It's a miracle she became as rich and famous as she did with mediocre, overpriced jewelry.

It's literally the first google result for Kendra Scott diamond necklace

IMG_0895.thumb.png.1aea0c547b2b48968b92f5a00dc88e47.png

 

 

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6 minutes ago, Hornlover said:

Ummm, not to fact check you or anything, but there are no emeralds. Kendra Scott sells costume jewelry that's mostly worthless garbage. There's not a single precious stone anywhere in her collection. It's a miracle she became as rich and famous as she did with mediocre, overpriced jewelry.

Yea but who wants to bang Robbins Brothers? 

Kendra on the other hand….

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  • texifornia changed the title to Texas Recruiting Notes 2024: Bags Don't Beat Bankrolls

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