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All Encompassing Mortgage and Real Estate Thread


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On 4/11/2024 at 10:38 AM, jimmyjazz said:

I have no data to back it up, but it feels like the Austin homes that were $1.5M-$2M listings three years ago (in my neighborhood) are being listed at 10%-20% less.  No idea about closing prices.

Austin market has taken the biggest dip

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@Wulaw (et al), any risk of these forward-seeking Refi's potentially getting derailed by short appraisals?  I don't know anything about HOU market, but I would imagine there's quite a few people in CenTex that bought in past 18-24 months who are underwater-ish right now (and seemingly getting worse, depending on their 'hood + price point).

That said, true market value not always reflected in appraisals, espec when it it seems (anecdotally) like the trend overall has been to err valuations in favor of buyer/borrower; at least since prices starting exploding in Summer of '21.

On related note, as someone in the "higher for longer" camp, I tend to think the only thing that would really force the issue w.r.t significant rate cuts would be an undeniable recession with corresponding surge in unemployment.  Under that scenario, I could see prices dropping quicker + further as 2nd homes, rental investors, + Airbnb'ers (of which there are many in TX) find themselves in liquidation mode.  I also would imagine a lot of hopeful refinancers would be DQ'd if they no longer have the jobs/income stability to pass underwriting...which may compel those same people to sell the houses that they can no longer afford.

 

Edited by Muny_Tex
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We haven’t had any issues coming short on appraisals. Outside of the market/loss of job crash scenario I suspect we’ve already hit the low end of houses coming in short. So fingers crossed not an issue, but as we have all seen anything can happen 

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7 hours ago, Muny_Tex said:

@Wulaw (et al), any risk of these forward-seeking Refi's potentially getting derailed by short appraisals?  I don't know anything about HOU market, but I would imagine there's quite a few people in CenTex that bought in past 18-24 months who are underwater-ish right now (and seemingly getting worse, depending on their 'hood + price point).

That said, true market value not always reflected in appraisals, espec when it it seems (anecdotally) like the trend overall has been to err valuations in favor of buyer/borrower; at least since prices starting exploding in Summer of '21.

On related note, as someone in the "higher for longer" camp, I tend to think the only thing that would really force the issue w.r.t significant rate cuts would be an undeniable recession with corresponding surge in unemployment.  Under that scenario, I could see prices dropping quicker + further as 2nd homes, rental investors, + Airbnb'ers (of which there are many in TX) find themselves in liquidation mode.  I also would imagine a lot of hopeful refinancers would be DQ'd if they no longer have the jobs/income stability to pass underwriting...which may compel those same people to sell the houses that they can no longer afford.

 

All those things could happen, sure, and a recession will definitely drive down interest rates and values both (at least almost always that’s what happens) which should make housing more important. 
a couple things to note regarding value as it pertains to refinance:

1) the houses with the least equity are Va and FHA loans, and refinance in those properties don’t require appraisals, merely paying on time 6 months in a row qualifies you for an appraisal-less Refiance 

2) Conventional homes require merely to see 5% equity- starting point on the vast majority of homes is much higher than that 

3) the best comp for a house generally is the purchase price of that house- it’s likely as you mentioned appraiser will err on the side of the borrower

4) the last time this became a systematic problem post 2008 market crash the government rolled out a program to allow this to happen- I’d expect similar here  and it makes sense- if the original loan is backed by Fannie/Freddy no reason not to make a new easier to pay loan also so backed- it’s smarter than letting it default  

recessions mean unemployment rate around 10 typically, right?  So 2X as many people unemployed as currently  I would submit that as minorities and poor are disproportionately hit by recessions, and least likely to own homes it’s unlikely that this would create a large group of homeowners wanting to refinance that cannot- especially in light of point 1 made above- but we shall see  

A recession not caused by housing is generally good for housing in the above sense  

 

 

 

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13 hours ago, closetohumping said:

Austin market has taken the biggest dip

I agree that it has but that’s on sales price, not so much on value.

If you have a $700k loan and bought in 2019 you likely have a 3% or better rate and  there’s just no way you’re going to spend twice that (plus more on taxes) to upgrade unless you REALLY need to.  

Removing these transactions has skewed the sales price numbers.  Appraisers are still finding comps at higher prices, they just have to do more legwork and can’t depend on 5 recent sales in a 1 miles radius.

1 hour ago, Wulaw Horn said:

3) the best comp for a house generally is the purchase price of that house- it’s likely as you mentioned appraiser will err on the side of the borrower

This was very well put, but it’s not purely out of deference to the buyer or so they don’t get yelled at-it’s because we are depending on the market to fundamentally answer this question of value and the price reached is the best evidence of it.  

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Assuming people that bought in CenTex in past 18-24 months are underwater-ish is a HUGE assumption. The median sales prices for ALL property types is down only -3% year over year. Single Family Homes are up +0.3%. Townhomes are up +15.2%, and Condos are dragging shit down at -11.2%

https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/housing-market

 

 

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On 4/12/2024 at 1:06 PM, BeardIP said:

As an aside, was I the only one in the world who didn't have sex on prom night? I got drunk with a bunch of dudes in like a Fairfield Inn. ugh. That's probably why my interest rate sucks.

I stayed home that night to watch the Lakers take on the Spurs.    

In '82, I didn't need to rent a tux to get a blowjob.   And, I hate dancing. 

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I strictly follow the US10Y.  Wild to see it back up at 4.70% this morning.  Seems like it wants to head to 5.00%.  We're only in April and no cuts on the horizon until late summer / early fall.

Also, I despise this is the market real estate market now.  Everyone is obsessed with the Fed and the key rate because everyone is putting rate bets on.  Need to end pretend and extend, wash out the losers, reset values, and move on.

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53 minutes ago, Neonmoon said:

Is there a way to bet on a Fed rate hike this year? I know it's a longshot, but I feel it would be a good payoff if it hits. 

Buying puts on.....everything?  Alternately I have some money in a predictions site Kalshi that works the same way as PredictIt. The "yes" bet on a fed hike in 2024 is currently at $0.16, so you could make ~5X your money. 

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1 hour ago, Esque said:

I strictly follow the US10Y.  Wild to see it back up at 4.70% this morning.  Seems like it wants to head to 5.00%.  We're only in April and no cuts on the horizon until late summer / early fall.

Also, I despise this is the market real estate market now.  Everyone is obsessed with the Fed and the key rate because everyone is putting rate bets on.  Need to end pretend and extend, wash out the losers, reset values, and move on.

Dude. No cuts incoming in summer. Maybe October. Maybe. But doubt it. 

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Just now, Blotto said:

Buying puts on.....everything?  Alternately I have some money in a predictions site Kalshi that works the same way as PredictIt. The "yes" bet on a fed hike in 2024 is currently at $0.16, so you could make ~5X your money. 

What can you top out at- like $1,000?  That feels like a small emotional hedge (and it’s starting to look potentially like a good bet)

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13 minutes ago, Wulaw Horn said:

What can you top out at- like $1,000?  That feels like a small emotional hedge (and it’s starting to look potentially like a good bet)

To be honest I cashed out of PredictIt and moved that money to Kalshi, but got busy with other shit and havent made a trade or really learned my way around the site.  This article claims the max investment per contract is $25K, but I would probably want to find that on their site before saying it with confidence. 

https://research.contrary.com/reports/kalshi

Quote

This business model allows Kalshi to cater to retail traders and differentiate itself from traditional bookmakers, as it does not have a stake in the outcome of events, and solely relies on transaction fees for its revenue generation. Other than a $2 fee any time a user makes a withdrawal from Kalshi to their linked bank account, Kalshi does not charge any settlement, wire, membership, or ACH fees. Additionally, Kalshi doesn’t allow margin or leverage trading, so the most users can lose on a trade is the total cost of purchased contracts, up to $25K.

Edit to add- they have all sorts of contracts for fed rates for every month. I dont follow shit nearly as closely you do for your job, but for instance for every month they have tiers like this. You guys can probably figure out a way to hedge your deal volume with this shit. 

image.thumb.png.ab80e27692accf8ee7e5c96ce49a6e92.png

Edited by Blotto
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National average is at 7.44. Friendly reminder that doesn’t account for people paying points!

Actual with that factored in is probably something like 7.75. Pretty much back to the grim days of last October that it felt like we’d left behind. 
 

I’m lobbying tomorrow and Thursday in favor of banning consumer sales of trigger leads. Hopefully that goes better than the market has been. 
Woof. 

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On 4/14/2024 at 2:00 PM, Neonmoon said:

Assuming people that bought in CenTex in past 18-24 months are underwater-ish is a HUGE assumption. The median sales prices for ALL property types is down only -3% year over year. Single Family Homes are up +0.3%. Townhomes are up +15.2%, and Condos are dragging shit down at -11.2%

https://www.redfin.com/city/30818/TX/Austin/housing-market

 

 

Sorry for late reply, but couple of things I believe the macro data is overlooking:

1.) The degree/extent to which buy-downs + other seller-paid concessions are propping-up / distorting "sale prices"; especially for SFH's.  

2.) Significant variance in transactions across different price-points.  If you double-clicked on homes under $500k vs. those above $1M I would imagine it's far from an equivalent story; particularly w.r.t price cuts, days on market, etc.  YoY comparisons are also inherently weird because 2023 was somewhat unique in terms of both super low listings and unusually low sales while people reacted to the new interest rate reality.

3.) Ultra-high end seems to be doing particularly bad.  Extreme example, but Chris Beard's Tarrytown den of iniquities has been on the market for over a year now and still ain't moving.  He's now baked in at least a $1.1M loss (not including sales commissions) from when he bought at the top of the top in 2021...so likely somewhere near a 25-30% bath when all is said and done.  It appears Sark also ate close to a $2M loss on his Rollingwood place he finally just offloaded.

By the same token, plenty of 'normal' people who bought in the bidding-war insanity of 2021 would also be selling at significant losses right now if they were faced with an equivalent "need" to sell.  Many are able to justify/sustain their situations thanks to their super-low rates, but that doesn't mean there isn't enormous price vulnerability across Austin if a real big-boy recession ever shows up (which may then impact appraisals for the 2023 buyers seeking to re-fi).  The cachet + hyper demand for Austin just is not the same as it was during peak Covid...and that story is already reflected within significant rent dcreases even in the premium parts of Central/West.  And no, I don't think this is a nationwide trend...the bandwagon just seems to have shifted from AUS/DEN/PHX/BOI etc over to other regions/markets (your neck of the woods in WNC is a prime beneficiary of that).

4.) Austin-proper and CenTex are different animals, particularly with regard to new-builds.  I think there are many exurb-style developments that are going to find themselves slashing prices massively (or eating the losses via in-house lending) if there is not significant rate improvement this year.  I don't doubt that demographic growth will continue in Texas indefinitely, I'm just not sure how many of the 'Texans of tomorrow' will be interested + capable of purchasing $400k tract home bullshit in the outskirts of New Braunfels.

All that stuff in aggregate is why I started to wonder about if the appraisals are gonna be sufficient to deliver re-fi rate relief for a lot of people who bought maybe a year or so ago.  They were too late to get the attractive rates, but also too early to get much significant price improvement.  However, Wulaw's insight (which was very helpful, btw) would indicate they're probably okay...at least on the supposition that lenders maintain their willingness to re-fi conventionals at 90-95%+ LTV in event of a recession.

 

 

Edited by Muny_Tex
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On 4/16/2024 at 8:37 AM, Esque said:

I strictly follow the US10Y.  Wild to see it back up at 4.70% this morning.  Seems like it wants to head to 5.00%.  We're only in April and no cuts on the horizon until late summer / early fall.

Also, I despise this is the market real estate market now.  Everyone is obsessed with the Fed and the key rate because everyone is putting rate bets on.  Need to end pretend and extend, wash out the losers, reset values, and move on.

Yeah I watch the US10Y closely as well.  Put a chunk of an inheritance in Vanguard Inflation Protected Fund several years ago thinking it would just keep pace with inflation and protect the principle.  Deposited the funds and forgot about it.  First time in my life to put $$ in a "Bond" fund.  Went to look at it recently and i'm down $40K and further research indicates it's all tied to the 10yr.  That's what I get for deviating from my Index stock fund strategy.  Got to wait it out now, its all in an inherited IRA anyway, but got to start taking money soon.

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2 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

Yeah I watch the US10Y closely as well.  Put a chunk of an inheritance in Vanguard Inflation Protected Fund several years ago thinking it would just keep pace with inflation and protect the principle.  Deposited the funds and forgot about it.  First time in my life to put $$ in a "Bond" fund.  Went to look at it recently and i'm down $40K and further research indicates it's all tied to the 10yr.  That's what I get for deviating from my Index stock fund strategy.  Got to wait it out now, its all in an inherited IRA anyway, but got to start taking money soon.

Ya that’s the problem with even inflation bonds. If rates move up, they can lose a lot of money too, and the inflation premiums on the basis may not cover it. 

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@Muny_Tex, I understand this line of thought but I believe the public does not fully appreciate the increase in input costs over the last several years.  Specifically, as it relates to #4.  A few thoughts.

  • The price of land peaked in 2021, but has not decreased materially since then.  Land owners are largely debt free with little carrying costs due to agricultural exemptions and thus are well positioned to increase their hold period.  Further, most land owners are not sophisticated, so they do not think in terms of opportunity costs, i.e. sell today and re-invest in $SPY or some other financial product that would yield better results long-term.  As a result of this market dynamic, those that want to break ground on a new project are having to pay up on the nominal price and then subsidize that higher input costs with some sort of seller financing, increased time period before closing, or etc.
  • Entitlement periods are increasing dramatically.  What used to be a 9 to 12 month period in DF/W is now 15 to 18 months and increasingly stakeholders are beginning to underwrite 18 to 24 months as things become more difficult.  I am hopeful the new legislation w.r.t. de-annexation of ETJ may alleviate some of these pressures, but that will take time.  Time is money and with higher rates there is higher cost of capital and thus higher input costs for this time.  Developers need a minimum return to make it worthwhile to pursue these risks and thus this all gets baked into the final land / lot price.
  • Hard costs on horizontal development are up more or less 40% since 2019.  There is a significant lag between the actual increase in these input costs and that reflection in the end market.  The next generation of finished lots are already much more expensive purely as a function of increased hard costs.  Lots that were under contract in the first phase of a project for $1,000 / FF are now $1,800 / FF - so your 50' lot went from $50k to $90k a finished lot.  This next generation of lots will be coming online in 2025 - 2026.
  • Hard costs on the vertical construction have increased dramatically.  This is experienced more in real time, but needless to say this is reflected in the gross margins, which have come down from 30%+ to 20% - 25% in the last 12 months and are heading back to 20% gross, 10% net.

This is all to say, Builders will do what they need to sell homes, including cutting prices.  But I'm (unfortunately) not holding my breath much will change in the next few years purely as a function of higher basis in actually delivering a home today as compared to a few years ago.  There's a delayed inflation input effect that's not being appreciated because the reality is it takes years for these projects to come out of the ground and to flow through the final input good - the finished home.

Just my two cents as a developer.

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Questions for the professionals. 

My neighbor priced his home last year at $4.25M. My business partner, (who is a real estate agent on the side), says it's worth around $2.5M. He pulled it down after 3/4 of a year and has it back on at $3.95.

  • How dangerous is it to overvalue the price of your home when selling? 
  • Do buyers really care how long a house has been on the market? 
  • Does it help you to pull a house that's been on the market for a long time, then re-list it? 
  • Is it wise to try to hold out for some really wealthy person who doesn't care about price to fall In love with it?

Thanks,

 

Edited by TreatyOak
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30 minutes ago, TreatyOak said:

Questions for the professionals. 

My neighbor priced his home last year at $4.25M. My business partner, (who is a real estate agent on the side), says it's worth around $2.5M. He pulled it down after 3/4 of a year and has it back on at $3.95.

  • How dangerous is it to overvalue the price of your home when selling? 
  • Do buyers really care how long a house has been on the market? 
  • Does it help you to pull a house that's been on the market for a long time, then re-list it? 
  • Is it wise to try to hold out for some really wealthy person who doesn't care about price to fall In love with it?

Thanks,

 

Sounds very much like you're "asking for a friend" 😉

Dangerous?  Over-valued?  Nobody knows anything, it's like Hollywood and making movies.  That's for the market to decide, particularly for a high value property that might have unique features that might not be known to your business partner.  Obviously the danger is that you don't get an offer at asking but it's not like that's inherently problematic for finding the present market value. 

Most realtors will defer to under-valuing a property because it undoubtedly makes it easier to sell and it'll create traffic.  This may or may not maximize sales price (this is one reason a realtor is better than an owner for having a strategy on this).  Every property is different and market conditions matter.  If I was trying to sell something at $500K, for example, I'd probably a lot more flexible on list because there's tons of buyers in that price range (relatively) and I might have better luck trying to encourage a multiple offer scenario.

If, by contrast, I wanted to sell something at $4.2m then maybe I'm more concerned with the perception of exclusivity.  Maybe I keep it off MLS, let agents know they can call it a pocket listing.  It'll still get out there but I only need one buyer who agrees with me on the value and that's a high enough price that most buyers would be looking for something special (and might feel entitled to it).  For example, paying $200 a sq ft premium for a recently remodeled house rather than doing it themselves and saving the money but incurring the hassle. 

Historically there's a prejudice against properties on the market for an extended period but I think that's gone away.  It might have previously meant the house had problems, the sellers are inflexible (or assholes), realtor incompetent, etc., but there's been so much price/demand volatility (hell, just life volatility) post Covid I really don't think a good buyer's agent declines to show a house because it's been listed for 90 days.  As far as pulling it back and then re-listing, who knows?  Agents see that, it's not like it's a way to truly re-introduce something "as new". 

Is it wise to hold out for a wealthy person?  That depends on how urgently the proceeds might be needed.  

 

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6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Sounds very much like you're "asking for a friend" 😉

Dangerous?  Over-valued?  Nobody knows anything, it's like Hollywood and making movies.  That's for the market to decide, particularly for a high value property that might have unique features that might not be known to your business partner.  Obviously the danger is that you don't get an offer at asking but it's not like that's inherently problematic for finding the present market value. 

Most realtors will defer to under-valuing a property because it undoubtedly makes it easier to sell and it'll create traffic.  This may or may not maximize sales price (this is one reason a realtor is better than an owner for having a strategy on this).  Every property is different and market conditions matter.  If I was trying to sell something at $500K, for example, I'd probably a lot more flexible on list because there's tons of buyers in that price range (relatively) and I might have better luck trying to encourage a multiple offer scenario.

If, by contrast, I wanted to sell something at $4.2m then maybe I'm more concerned with the perception of exclusivity.  Maybe I keep it off MLS, let agents know they can call it a pocket listing.  It'll still get out there but I only need one buyer who agrees with me on the value and that's a high enough price that most buyers would be looking for something special (and might feel entitled to it).  For example, paying $200 a sq ft premium for a recently remodeled house rather than doing it themselves and saving the money but incurring the hassle. 

Historically there's a prejudice against properties on the market for an extended period but I think that's gone away.  It might have previously meant the house had problems, the sellers are inflexible (or assholes), realtor incompetent, etc., but there's been so much price/demand volatility (hell, just life volatility) post Covid I really don't think a good buyer's agent declines to show a house because it's been listed for 90 days.  As far as pulling it back and then re-listing, who knows?  Agents see that, it's not like it's a way to truly re-introduce something "as new". 

Is it wise to hold out for a wealthy person?  That depends on how urgently the proceeds might be needed.  

 

Thanks. This is great feedback. Haha, I wish it was it ours to sell. We live next door in a nice house, but not on the price scale. Your main point seems to be that conventional sales strategies may no longer apply.  It will be interesting to see if they can sell it. The house has insane Hill Country views but they did finish it out in a very particular style, so you have to love the look. Thanks again!   

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Anyone have any experience with STR to traveling nurses?  We bought a small house recently with intention of a flip, paid $110K cash for a 3/1.  Needs a new roof, interior paint, flooring (LVP) and some cosmetic improvements, nothing major, new woodwork on front large front porch.  Corner lot, no neighbors next to or behind.  We know the owner of those lots.  Last week we found out it's in a medical overlay district 2-3 blocks from a growing regional hospital.

We had planned on flipping it, but once we found out about the Medical Overlay, we thought about renting it to a medical oriented practice , but after contacting a staffing (for lack of better word) company for nurses, we think it may draw $3K a month.  We are in the process of acquiring furniture.  Mrs JDHorn is a realtor so we are privy to many people looking to unload furniture.  We have acquired a 40" Samsung, 4 beds and we generally have an attic full of stuff she uses for staging.

Does anyone have thoughts on renting to nurses?  My limited research shows they do extended runs at hospitals, 90 days-  6 mos and sometimes longer if they like the gig. 

The place is 30 min to the gulf of mexico, couple hours to New Orleans or FL panhandle beaches...not a bad area, a little rural but im thinking $3K would be the number if we got 2 or maybe 3 nurses (would be tight with 1 bathroom), though I imagine there are facilities at the hospital too? 

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1 hour ago, jdhorn92 said:

Anyone have any experience with STR to traveling nurses?  We bought a small house recently with intention of a flip, paid $110K cash for a 3/1.  Needs a new roof, interior paint, flooring (LVP) and some cosmetic improvements, nothing major, new woodwork on front large front porch.  Corner lot, no neighbors next to or behind.  We know the owner of those lots.  Last week we found out it's in a medical overlay district 2-3 blocks from a growing regional hospital.

We had planned on flipping it, but once we found out about the Medical Overlay, we thought about renting it to a medical oriented practice , but after contacting a staffing (for lack of better word) company for nurses, we think it may draw $3K a month.  We are in the process of acquiring furniture.  Mrs JDHorn is a realtor so we are privy to many people looking to unload furniture.  We have acquired a 40" Samsung, 4 beds and we generally have an attic full of stuff she uses for staging.

Does anyone have thoughts on renting to nurses?  My limited research shows they do extended runs at hospitals, 90 days-  6 mos and sometimes longer if they like the gig. 

The place is 30 min to the gulf of mexico, couple hours to New Orleans or FL panhandle beaches...not a bad area, a little rural but im thinking $3K would be the number if we got 2 or maybe 3 nurses (would be tight with 1 bathroom), though I imagine there are facilities at the hospital too? 

3k a month for a place you paid 110k cash for (even with improvements seems like a pretty damn good ROI to me.  I've never rented to traveling nurses but my SIL was one for a while.  I wouldn't be at all concerned about it. They work those guys pretty hard- they make decent money and I wouldn't think they'd tear the place apart. She never did anyway.  They also don't know many people so they aren't likely to be throwing ragers or anything like that. I'd do it if I thought I could get that number for sure. 

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2 hours ago, jdhorn92 said:

Does anyone have thoughts on renting to nurses?  My limited research shows they do extended runs at hospitals, 90 days-  6 mos and sometimes longer if they like the gig. 

I did a loan a couple of years ago for a traveling nurse that was doing this specifically (this is when it was cheaper to finance a purchase as a second home).  Three bedrooms and the math made it the two that were occupied by other traveling nurses meant she’d live for free, and that saved her from paying apartment rent on a one bedroom she’d only need 2 weeks out of four.
 

I thought it was a terrific idea, personally.  This is kind of stealing from Warren Buffett, but I’ve seen so many people get into real estate presuming it’s easy and find out there’s a lot the “you can retire on passive income!” wealth coaches don’t tell you.  If you have, however, specific knowledge about an area (because you live there) and your customer (because you are employed in the same profession) it can really help mitigate that risk.  

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