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Posted
4 minutes ago, DalTxHornFan said:

Never, never, none.  Better if you don't stand too close to me!  (Seriously, I must have had it by now, but no symptoms that I recall.)

Same. Have nc seroconverted but never have tipped a positive test. 

Posted

I got the pfizer about a month ago. I've had both over the past years. I may have gone to sleep a little early that night. My wife got it about the same time and she was in bed for about 2 days but she has responded poorly to the vaccine before. 

Anyway, good news for those who've participated:

 

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Posted
16 hours ago, Chopper said:

I got the pfizer about a month ago. I've had both over the past years. I may have gone to sleep a little early that night. My wife got it about the same time and she was in bed for about 2 days but she has responded poorly to the vaccine before. 

Anyway, good news for those who've participated:

 

Even if you rule out any confounding or bias from the observational nature of the study and the demographics of a VA population, then you have to look at absolute risk reduction.

18.3 ER visits per 10,000

7.5 hospitalizations per 10,000

2.2 deaths per 10,000

This gives you a NNT (number needed to treat) or NNV of

546 to prevent one ER visit

1,333 to prevent one hospitalization

4,545 to prevent one death

We can go further into discussion, but these numbers appear to back up the current policy of 65 and up or with chronic health conditions getting the booster if they want. 

But I'm happy that you can all find it if you want.

Go on with your bad selves.

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Posted (edited)
33 minutes ago, Screwed said:

Even if you rule out any confounding or bias from the observational nature of the study and the demographics of a VA population, then you have to look at absolute risk reduction.

Look, I'm very pleased you selected a user name that reflects your lot in life. However, I'm saddened you don't understand the ramifications of getting covid. But have a good day, clown. Also I think there's a thread for nonces like you who want to have this argument. You should go there. 

Edited by Chopper
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Posted
12 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Look, I'm very pleased you selected a user name that reflects your lot in life. However, I'm saddened you don't understand the ramifications of getting covid. But have a good day, clown. Also I think there's a thread for nonces like you who want to have this argument. You should go there. 

Who's arguing anything? Just discussing the study you shared.

If you don't understand what I posted, maybe you don't know where the discussion should go?

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Posted
18 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Look, I'm very pleased you selected a user name that reflects your lot in life. However, I'm saddened you don't understand the ramifications of getting covid. But have a good day, clown. Also I think there's a thread for nonces like you who want to have this argument. You should go there. 

What you don't get is any risk comparison.  Which, you know, is the relevant way to evaluate risk.

What is your risk of contracting COVID and having a negative outcome, stairstepping up in levels of severity, if unvaccinated?

What is your risk of an adverse vaccine reaction, stairstepping up in levels of severity?

In other words, what is my illness risk reduction if vaccinated, and what is my adverse reaction risk increase if vaccinated - which is greater?

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Posted
5 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What you don't get is any risk comparison.  Which, you know, is the relevant way to evaluate risk.

What is your risk of contracting COVID and having a negative outcome, stairstepping up in levels of severity, if unvaccinated?

I've read the study. The absolute risk reduction numbers are in my previous post.

1 hour ago, Screwed said:

Even if you rule out any confounding or bias from the observational nature of the study and the demographics of a VA population, then you have to look at absolute risk reduction.

18.3 ER visits per 10,000

7.5 hospitalizations per 10,000

2.2 deaths per 10,000

This gives you a NNT (number needed to treat) or NNV of

546 to prevent one ER visit

1,333 to prevent one hospitalization

4,545 to prevent one death

 

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

What is your risk of an adverse vaccine reaction, stairstepping up in levels of severity?

They did not look at adverse reactions in the study.

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Posted
1 minute ago, Screwed said:

I've read the study. The absolute risk reduction numbers are in my previous post.

 

They did not look at adverse reactions in the study.

Sure.  That would be another, different study.  Which would give rates.  Then compare rates.

If I have a 1 in 1,000 chance of dying of disease X, and I have a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying of an adverse vaccine reaction (assuming arguendo that "death" is the primary adverse event in either case), then the math dictates the smarter choice.

Posted

Sincerely, it's great to see an observational study get published in NEJM. It's a pretty sophisticated analysis, and the VA has certain advantages wrt the data they collect. The limitations of an observational study, the constraints on generalizability, and the very modest absolute risk reduction have been discussed more than adequately up thread. But just to amplify the generalizability issue, mean age 71 years, over 90% male, obese on average. The results (esp some of the data in the supp appendix) strongly reinforce risk-based recommendations (age, comorbidities, etc.) rather than universal recommendations that include children, adolescents, and young healthy adults. 

 

It's amazing that instead of reviewing rounds of results from RCTs with each subsequent booster release we are digesting tweets related VA observational studies.  Hopefully the new FDA guidance incentivizes more of that kinda work.  

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