2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?

[52-80 19047]

1 hour ago, jimmyjazz said:

*Has

Unfortunately the cabal consist of more than 1 dummy. Hence pluralizing of the collective noun. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

On 4/6/2024 at 4:39 PM, TxTower said:

Barring some completely foreseeable economic collapse, June is now definitely off the table and cuts for the rest of 2024 are in question as well.

Higher for longer.

FIFY, good sir. While I correctly assessed that Michael Burry was early, fiscal accountability is indeed nigh. Gird thy loins.

[tbone_ 14016]

Starting to see trickles of syndicated multifam bros blowing up. Evidently a lot of those deals involve ARMs or shorter term loans that have to rollover now at higher rates. They need they to come down. Glad I got out of my little piece of one a while back. 

Yes. Folks in the apartment world that bought at inflated 2020-2022 pricing with floating rate cheap debt fund money (which was mostly everyone who bought in 2020-2022) have issues.

[jimmyjazz 45426]

5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Unfortunately the cabal consist of more than 1 dummy. Hence pluralizing of the collective noun. 

Well, a cabal is a group, and as such it calls for the singular.  More than one cabal would call for the plural, but keep calling people "dummies".  It looks good on you.

[52-80 19047]

31 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, a cabal is a group, and as such it calls for the singular.  More than one cabal would call for the plural, but keep calling people "dummies".  It looks good on you.

Your command of English must be as good as it is of Economics. 

The verb agreement choice depends on context and/or region. Here’s UT Law faculty Wayne Schiess who “teaches legal writing, legal drafting, and plain English“:

Quote

“But if the emphasis is on the individuals in the group, the plural verb form is best.”1 The editors of Merriam-Webster’s English Usage Dictionary agree: “[W]hen the group is considered as a unit, the singular verb is used; when it is thought of as a collection of individuals, the plural verb is used.”

English is my 2nd language (out of 4).  What’s your excuse?

[jimmyjazz 45426]

8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Your command of English must be as good as it is of Economics. 

The verb agreement choice depends on context and/or region. Here’s UT Law faculty Wayne Schiess who “teaches legal writing, legal drafting, and plain English“:

English is my 2nd language (out of 4).  What’s your excuse?

What's my excuse?  I'm right.  Look in a fucking dictionary -- the plural of cabal is cabals.

The honorable professor's opinion is neither widespread nor correct.

Edited April 7 by jimmyjazz

[52-80 19047]

3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

What's my excuse?  I'm right.  Look in a fucking dictionary -- the plural of cabal is cabals.

Listen to Wayne who teaches writing, or Gartner — whom he cites — who authors books in writing, or the editors of the oldest published dictionary in America…

…or to jimmyjazz?

whaddayasay, fellas?

 

[Incredulity 11436]

2 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

whaddayasay, fellas?

Take it to the grammar thread!!!

[jimmyjazz 45426]

4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Listen to Wayne who teaches writing, or Gartner — whom he cites — who authors books in writing, or the editors of the oldest published dictionary in America…

…or to jimmyjazz?

whaddayasay, fellas?

Or my mother the English professor?

OK, dummy.

[Incredulity 11436]

4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Or my mother the English professor?

Derka?

[52-80 19047]

6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Or my mother the English professor?

OK, dummy.

Does she have a website that doesnt start with onlyfans.com? 

“The short bus crew, consisting of jimmyjazz and friends, aren’t particularly bright”

You see how the subject “crew” is a collective noun in singular form (rather than “crews”) agreeing perfectly with the plural “aren’t”?

Edited April 7 by 52-80

[jimmyjazz 45426]

11 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

“The short bus crew, consisting of jimmyjazz and friends, aren’t particularly bright”

You see how the subject “crew” is a collective noun in singular form (rather than “crews”) agreeing perfectly with the plural “aren’t”?

You do see how your construction of that statement is distinct from your original dummy statement, don't you?

Don't answer that, dummy.

[StassneyHorn 6514]

Has

[52-80 19047]

9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

You do see how your construction of that statement is distinct from your original dummy statement, don't you?

Don't answer that, dummy.

Have the UT faculty failed in educating you?

Has the UT faculty failed in educating you?

Do answer that, dummy. 

[Slacks 6784]

I click on this thread expecting opinion and insight on inflation and the effects it may have on the economy.

Y'all some hoes.

Edited April 8 by Slacks
Y'all some hoes

[bernorange 8345]

3 hours ago, Slacks said:

I click on this thread expecting opinion and insight on inflation and the effects it may have on the economy.

Inflation (regardless of the rate of inflation) is going up.  It's bad for the 99%.

[Captainant 27249]

4 hours ago, Slacks said:

I click on this thread expecting opinion and insight on inflation and the effects it may have on the economy.

Y'all some hoes.

Lol this thread is just a dumping ground for 52-80 to rage and correct people's English on a Sunday afternoon. 

PS - chocolate futures are going through the roof because it's very likely there's going to be much less chocolate in the future thanks to climate change destroying it's preferred ecology. If you want I can probably find a graph to explain it to you

Edited April 8 by Captainant

[UTPhil2006 3785]

4 hours ago, Slacks said:

I click on this thread expecting opinion and insight on inflation and the effects it may have on the economy.

Y'all some hoes.

Here ya go

[gsoda3 3214]

9 hours ago, Captainant said:

Lol this thread is just a dumping ground for 52-80 to rage and correct people's English on a Sunday afternoon. 

PS - chocolate futures are going through the roof because it's very likely there's going to be much less chocolate in the future thanks to climate change destroying it's preferred ecology. If you want I can probably find a graph to explain it to you

*its

[StassneyHorn 6514]

CPI and PPI out Wednesday and Thursday. Overreactions will happen to CPI. 

Jerome’s favorite FED report of PCE is at end of month and will be overlooked as usual but be the most telling of his future plans.

Bernorange will post some zero hedge/drudge links from firms nobody knows from fund managers nobody has heard of.

I’ll remind you all of egg prices now that Texas has got hit with avian flu. Chocolate bars will be more expensive and the fatties will expose themselves.

[UTPhil2006 3785]

I will bitch about the treasury 10 year and interest rates. 

[Thetexashammer 1062]

5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

CPI and PPI out Wednesday and Thursday. Overreactions will happen to CPI. 

Jerome’s favorite FED report of PCE is at end of month and will be overlooked as usual but be the most telling of his future plans.

Bernorange will post some zero hedge/drudge links from firms nobody knows from fund managers nobody has heard of.

I’ll remind you all of egg prices now that Texas has got hit with avian flu. Chocolate bars will be more expensive and the fatties will expose themselves.

I don't speak for others, but I reject nihilism. Can't say for sure that's what you are selling.

[jimmyjazz 45426]

46 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

CPI and PPI out Wednesday and Thursday. Overreactions will happen to CPI. 

Jerome’s favorite FED report of PCE is at end of month and will be overlooked as usual but be the most telling of his future plans.

Bernorange will post some zero hedge/drudge links from firms nobody knows from fund managers nobody has heard of.

I’ll remind you all of egg prices now that Texas has got hit with avian flu. Chocolate bars will be more expensive and the fatties will expose themselves.

*been

[tbone_ 14016]

I will bitch about the treasury 10 year and interest rates. 

Fuck the 10 year in it’s goat ass

[52-80 19047]

Surly's leading economist also happens to be its foremost climatologist.  Climate changed rapidly and suddenly, only in 2023.  Because NPR told him so.

 

[52-80 19047]

Since 1843, the US treasury has always accepted voluntary donation.  Can be cash, proceeds of asset sales, relief of bond obligations, etc...

Fun quiz: approx how much has it received every year?

[Neonmoon 38127]

10 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

I don't speak for others, but I reject nihilism. Can't say for sure that's what you are selling.

[Captainant 27249]

2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Surly's leading economist also happens to be its foremost climatologist.  Climate changed rapidly and suddenly, only in 2023.  Because NPR told him so.

 

I'm sorry that inconvenient facts about negative externalities are triggering to you. The last three years of cocoa harvest have been ravaged by increasingly intense weather and temperatures. That is a trend that only accelerating with time. 

Are we really back at the "climate change is a hoax" stage of things?

[52-80 19047]

29 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I'm sorry that inconvenient facts about negative externalities are triggering to you. The last three years of cocoa harvest have been ravaged by increasingly intense weather and temperatures. That is a trend that only accelerating with time. 

Are we really back at the "climate change is a hoax" stage of things?

Whether climate changed or trended over time wasn’t a question. To most people I’d normally say “but you already knew that”. But its you, and you don’t know, because you lick rusty doorknobs for a hobby, so we’d have to draw it out:

What were the annual climatic fluctuation over the last 4 decades in the cocoa growing regions? Did the acceleration only occur last few years? Was there an inflection in the trend? And did nobody involved in cocoa ever know that until now? 
 

[Js1 84994]

This thread ain’t your safe space, bitch 

[elfenix 34161]

imagine trying to bag on others' analytics while thinking that the price spike of any particular commodity proves anything.

[immamac 42385]

On 4/6/2024 at 8:43 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

I was at a conference a few weeks ago where some very serious bond and fixed income guys on a panel were all agreeing and nodding to each other that the rate environment was punitive and restrictive and also that the economy is really robust, unemployment is very low and there’s no reason to expect either wages or asset prices to stop rising. 

Things are tough all over!!!

It’s hilarious because the last decade of no interest has broken everyone’s brain into thinking they are just entitled to free money that they didn’t earn just given to them and anything else is punitive. Free money isn’t a right lmao 

also I just got dragged into this thread by a reported post and was reviewing stuff. I get that this is an e-peen big brain measuring contest, but sometimes people are just paying attention and have opinions without having full context. That’s perfectly ok. 

@52-80 take a chill pill on dunking on everyone for not being as good of a grammar pro or economist as you. 

[fattyflattie 4636]

It’s pretty easy to know who to bend your ear for in regards to economics, engineering, and even what’s trending on TikTok.  Posts actually reported? 

[Captainant 27249]

3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

What were the annual climatic fluctuation over the last 4 decades in the cocoa growing regions? Did the acceleration only occur last few years? Was there an inflection in the trend? And did nobody involved in cocoa ever know that until now? 

Are you being intentionally obtuse? We have been seeing a string of record high temperatures globally that weren't hitting this frequently until now. Since last June, we've been breaking global temperature records each month. It makes sense that commodities that are highly climate sensitive would start to skyrocket in price just from a natural reduction in supply - and then that trend can be turbocharged by market speculation hoping to bet the right way.

I don't think it's a remarkable position to argue that the cocoa price spike is foundationally driven by the worsening of our global ecology thanks to rising global temperature and carbon emissions.

[52-80 19047]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

 

@52-80 take a chill pill on dunking on everyone for not being as good of a grammar pro or economist as you. 

jimmyjazz was the person first calling out my grammar. so he (probably) isnt daft enough to report on a tangent of his own doing. 

which must means the mod reporting was the dumb guy getting upset at being called dumb on the internet which is atleast a little funny.

[Captainant 27249]

22 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

which must means the mod reporting was the dumb guy getting upset at being called dumb on the internet which is atleast a little funny.

I'm pretty used to being called dumb, but that's usually followed by something of actual substance rather than consistent personal attacks. You don't even engage with the argument I'm making and just call me a retard or shizo or doorknob licker. @immamac has always been pretty consistent with "no personal attacks" as a site rule so I'm just doing what he's asked and reporting instead of responding in kind. 

 

Edited April 9 by Captainant

[immamac 42385]

I'm just saying to chill a bit, IDGAF about you guys mixing it up. 

[jimmyjazz 45426]

At least identify the right grammar pro.

[Thetexashammer 1062]

5 hours ago, Captainant said:

I'm pretty used to being called dumb, but that's usually followed by something of actual substance rather than consistent personal attacks. You don't even engage with the argument I'm making and just call me a retard or shizo or doorknob licker. @immamac has always been pretty consistent with "no personal attacks" as a site rule so I'm just doing what he's asked and reporting instead of responding in kind. 

a

You're too dumb engage with but you are a unique kind of message board hemlock. At least you understand you are highly regarded, that's about all one can expect.

[Captainant 27249]

18 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

You're too dumb engage with but you are a unique kind of message board hemlock. At least you understand you are a retard, that's about all one can expect.

Lemme know when you get to the bottom of Adam Schiff and Zelensky conspiring to rig an election lol

[immamac 42385]

53 minutes ago, Thetexashammer said:

You're too dumb engage with but you are a unique kind of message board hemlock. At least you understand you are a retard, that's about all one can expect.

This is the kind of post that has no substance and adds less than nothing to the conversation. Knock it off. 

[jimmyjazz 45426]

2 hours ago, Thetexashammer said:

You're too dumb engage with

I mean, this is the kind of joke that just writes itself.

[UTPhil2006 3785]

Okay so back onto the point of the thread.. CPI report coming in tomorrow. The main news of the month at least for interest rates 

[Neonmoon 38127]

9 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

Okay so back onto the point of the thread.. CPI report coming in tomorrow. The main news of the month at least for interest rates 

It’s going to be high 

[BabaYaga 15190]

DJI -509.81

This is fine....

[3 Stacks 9]

21 hours ago, Captainant said:

@immamac has always been pretty consistent with "no personal attacks" as a site rule so I'm just doing what he's asked and reporting instead of responding in kind. 

 

[Incredulity 11436]

17 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

DJI -509.81

This is fine....

[Thetexashammer 1062]

So most people here outside of Lenny understand that an individual data point is not information. I am interested in the signal not the noise.

Efficient market theory says you can't time the market. Mostly true, but you can be a little smarter. You can see trends. So for example, I think this is four in a row that came in above expectations. Of course my thesis is that this is driven by money printing. Said money printing has started to move up at a rate that is totally out of control. We've reached the steep part of the curve.  Jamie Dimon discussed this recently: 

Quote

It is important to note that the economy is being fueled by large amounts of government deficit spending and past stimulus. There is also a growing need for increased spending as we continue transitioning to a greener economy, restructuring global supply chains, boosting military expenditure and battling rising healthcare costs. This may lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect. Furthermore, there are downside risks to watch.

Every asset class is going to be affected. We've mostly got over the idiots saying "it can't happen here", so it's a much more rational discussion. Almost certainly the disaster hits within five years, possibly sooner. It really depends on when we go into recession. Deficits >12% during economic expansion are unheard of in our history. The government is borrowing almost 50% of what it is spending NOW, before the recession. Financial repression is a thing, everyone will sell their bonds and get out of the dollar when they realize what we've done.

What Raoul Pal said about "we are all debt slaves" was really powerful. Pal's Bitcoin argument has some holes, for example I am not seeing a flood of money into BTC today, but regardless, I am positioning the portfolio to benefit from the inevitable. It seems like the money printing is finally driving prices up.  I mean, I was a decade early and all, but here we are. It's not an argument I wanted to win. 

I blame mostly the 535 ladies and gentlemen of Congress. I hope they all get uncurable leprosy.

Edited April 10 by Thetexashammer

[Wulaw Horn 18933]

35 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

DJI -509.81

This is fine....

That’s a kind reaction compared to the 10 year and the mbs market. 

[washparkhorn 9931]