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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Captainant said:

"IF" tariffs take effect, amirite incredulity?

 

 

 

4 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

IMG_1242.thumb.png.32283e36918ae5d2c6b8dbf7c15c190f.png

i'll just note here that the packaging sizes are different (price per ounce is the same).

 

edit: yet another packaging size because i guess they just buy whatever is the cheapest container or some shit but here's amazon's price history

image.png.b9af7cfa6e3b679369de5a67fcbbc73c.png

 

 

Edited by elfenix
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Posted
46 minutes ago, ChickenSandwich said:

It is going to take a bit for the consumer to notice after the last four years 

image.thumb.jpeg.5e10977b8127052eb6d6fb2a57a005a9.jpeg

Really, it's just the COVID shock that's fucked us so badly. Of course, everyone taking the opportunity to goose margins and stock up for tariff impact is great for inflation too

Posted
On 7/24/2025 at 11:04 PM, Thetexashammer said:

The reason I am not impressed with "political independence" is that we are going into an inflation death spiral. And the fed has already caused inflation with QE and balance sheet expansion. They don't even include money supply in their Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model. I don't think presidents should have a money printer, but I don't think anyone should have a money printer. And the idol worship around the fed, and their general lack of understanding of the economy, it's a farce. The fed doesn't set rates, the market does.

Your 'analysis' is a masterclass in economic illiteracy.

Death spiral? Hyperbole isn't data.

Fed doesn't set rates? Tell that to the bond market.

Ignoring money supply? They track M2 through their weekly H.6 reports. DSGE frameworks explicitly analyzes money growth. 

'No one should print money'? Congrats, you've invented barter.

You are out of your depth Neo-goldbug. No offense intended. 

Posted

I have been hearing about an "inflation death spiral" for decades.  I'm not saying high inflation can't or won't happen, I was a kid when Carter was POTUS and inflation was insane.  That said, nobody has a crystal ball.  Economics is called a soft science for a reason.  Regardless, saying the FED lacks even a general understanding of the economy is hilariously off base.

Posted
3 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

I have been hearing about an "inflation death spiral" for decades.  I'm not saying high inflation can't or won't happen, I was a kid when Carter was POTUS and inflation was insane.  That said, nobody has a crystal ball.  Economics is called a soft science for a reason.  Regardless, saying the FED lacks even a general understanding of the economy is hilariously off base.

I agree. It's not the fall that kills you.

Posted

 

More sly pricing games to drastically increase prices without sticker shocking, like keeping the price the same but making it be per unit instead of per lb. Happy to hear from Chickensandwich why it's actually a good thing though

Posted
Just now, Captainant said:

 

More sly pricing games to drastically increase prices without sticker shocking, like keeping the price the same but making it be per unit instead of per lb. Happy to hear from Chickensandwich why it's actually a good thing though

That's why you type in another fruit at the register. I ain't keeping them Arkansas alumni rich 

Posted

It feels like Trader Joe's has been doing that forever.  A couple of times I'd double take at (for instance) bananas "holy smokes $0.24/lb?" and then I'd realize it was $0.24 per banana.  (That's a far cry from $10/banana, though.)

Posted

We have seen prices rising substantially at the grocery store and elsewhere, and significant price impacts due to tariffs is still months away. 

It appears the administration is now at the point of no return on tariffs, and I’m struggling to see how this doesn’t end up in either stagflation or a significant recession, the worst of all economic scenarios. 

I thought previously the odds of that were extremely low because you’d have to massively mismanage the economy to take what was essentially a pretty good situation and turn it south so fast. And what’s worse, it’s not being done under “austerity” to get spending under control. Deficits are actually getting worse. Very scary times ahead imo. 

Posted
42 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

We have seen prices rising substantially at the grocery store and elsewhere, and significant price impacts due to tariffs is still months away. 

It appears the administration is now at the point of no return on tariffs, and I’m struggling to see how this doesn’t end up in either stagflation or a significant recession, the worst of all economic scenarios. 

I thought previously the odds of that were extremely low because you’d have to massively mismanage the economy to take what was essentially a pretty good situation and turn it south so fast. And what’s worse, it’s not being done under “austerity” to get spending under control. Deficits are actually getting worse. Very scary times ahead imo. 

Well, when the economy goes to shit and it's all his fault, he can retract the tariffs.  And, it is still possible the Federal Circuit and SCOTUS undo all these emergency tariffs.

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Posted
2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

I thought previously the odds of that were extremely low because you’d have to massively mismanage the economy to take what was essentially a pretty good situation and turn it south so fast.

You just aren’t a creative enough thinker 

Posted

Some of you might enjoy the Mark Zandi podcast called Inside Economics. Bunch of real nerds talking economic data. You can tell what the believe about how they expect current policy to affect economic activity, but this group is about as unbiased and non political as I’m aware of.

 

They do a great job of just sharing the data. And the data says we are currently walking a tight rope. 

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Posted

Goldman has its inflation breakdown out:

Through June, importers shouldering most of the tariffs/tax increases:

IMG_2034.thumb.jpeg.f047f6548a83268bb9d316bb37bd3999.jpeg


Inflation w/out tariffs/tax increases v. inflation with tariffs/tax increases. A Fed rate cut will add fuel to increasing inflation. 
IMG_2033.jpeg.d0a34926ea1663f66b36fbc542b8fd97.jpeg

The following shows the goods experiencing significant price increases. Appliances showing a 37% price increase since January 2025.

IMG_2032.jpeg.b61290971cb0ea5404188548b2aa4a51.jpeg

Posted
48 minutes ago, Chopper said:

There will no longer be inflation. Orders from above.

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I bet he's got some good statistics that track "native born" wages against "foreign born" wages like chickensandwich was posting past week

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Posted
9 hours ago, UTPhil2006 said:

If Hader is hurt sign Press cut Ort 

This is why you don't have multiple open tabs post game. But if Hader knows anything about inflation maybe we see what he says 

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Posted

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/us-july-budget-deficit-20-year-year-despite-124588244

Quote

WASHINGTON -- The U.S. budget deficit in July climbed 20% this fiscal year compared to the last despite the U.S. taking in record income from President Donald Trump’s tariffs, according to Treasury Department data released Tuesday.

The U.S. saw a 273% increase — or $21 billion — in customs revenue in July over the same period last year, the data showed.

A Treasury official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to preview the data said overall increased spending is in part due to a mix of expenditures, including growing interest payments on the public debt and cost-of-living increases to Social Security payouts, among other costs. This comes as the federal government’s gross national debt creeps up to the $37 trillion mark.

Even as Trump talks about America becoming rich because of his import tax hikes, federal spending keeps outpacing the revenues collected by the government. That financial picture might change as companies exhaust their pre-tariff inventories, forcing them to import more goods and generate even more in tax revenues that could whittle away at the deficit without meaningfully reducing it as promised.

If tariffs fail to deliver on Trump's pledge to improve the government's balance sheet, the American public could be faced with fewer job options, more inflationary pressures and higher interest rates on mortgages, auto loans and credit cards. The budget deficit is the annual gap between what the U.S. government raises in taxes and what it spends, over time feeding into the overall national debt.

 

While organizations like the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget say that tariff income can be a stream of meaningful revenue — estimated to generate about $1.3 trillion over the course of President Trump’s four-year term in office; some economists like Kent Smetters of the University of Pennsylvania’s Penn Wharton Budget Model say tariffs are likely to result “ in only modest reductions in federal debt.”

In June, the Congressional Budget Office estimated that President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariff plan would cut deficits by $2.8 trillion over a 10-year period while shrinking the economy, raising the inflation rate and reducing the purchasing power of households overall. But revenue estimates are also difficult to predict as the president has changed his tariff rates repeatedly and the taxes declared as part of an economic emergency are currently under appeal in a U.S. court.

 

A Treasury official did not respond to an Associated Press request for comment on when the U.S. could begin to see tariff revenue start to put a dent in the deficit.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said last month on Fox Business Network's “Mornings with Maria” that the administration is “laser-focused on bringing this deficit down.” The Trump administration expects to make more trade deals with other nations, including China and other major economies.

For instance, on Monday, Trump extended a trade truce with China for another 90 days, which preserves the 30% tariffs he had imposed as a condition for negotiations. The previous deadline was set to expire at 12:01 a.m. Tuesday.

 

Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that he signed the executive order for the extension, and that “all other elements of the Agreement will remain the same.” Beijing, at the same time, also announced the extension of the tariff pause, according to the Ministry of Commerce.

 

Probably not good for the money printing situation.

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