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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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7 hours ago, babysdaddy said:

 

No rate cuts for you! Sorry real estate boyz

Full time time workers fell, part time soared, 2nd and third jobs also increased (each job counts as an individual even if performed by the same person)  

Don’t give up hope yet  

 

 

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No rate cuts for you! Sorry real estate boyz

Baring some complete unforeseen economic collapse, June is now definitely off the table and cuts for the rest of 2024 are in question as well.

Higher for longer.
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1 hour ago, TxTower said:


Baring some complete unforeseen economic collapse, June is now definitely off the table and cuts for the rest of 2024 are in question as well.

Higher for longer.

 

On 4/5/2024 at 9:08 AM, tbone_ said:

The 10 year can eat a dick

Starting to see trickles of syndicated multifam bros blowing up. Evidently a lot of those deals involve ARMs or shorter term loans that have to rollover now at higher rates. They need they to come down. Glad I got out of my little piece of one a while back. 

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Posted (edited)

I was at a conference a few weeks ago where some very serious bond and fixed income guys on a panel were all agreeing and nodding to each other that the rate environment was punitive and restrictive and also that the economy is really robust, unemployment is very low and there’s no reason to expect either wages or asset prices to stop rising. 

Things are tough all over!!!

image.png.8e524811f28c0fb2ba390166f290ed88.png

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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On 12/28/2023 at 4:16 PM, StassneyHorn said:

Q1 job numbers in 2024 are going to be so fucking hot that all the same annoying people will start asking “Will the fed reverse course and raise rates?” Good news on the economy will be bad trading days again.

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7 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I was at a conference a few weeks ago where some very serious bond and fixed income guys on a panel were all agreeing and nodding to each other that the rate environment was punitive and restrictive and also that the economy is really robust, unemployment is very low and there’s no reason to expect either wages or asset prices to stop rising. 

Things are tough all over!!!

image.png.8e524811f28c0fb2ba390166f290ed88.png

If you’re 45 year old senior fixed income manager, the average effr during your entire working tenure is….1.5%

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On 4/6/2024 at 4:39 PM, TxTower said:


Barring some completely foreseeable economic collapse, June is now definitely off the table and cuts for the rest of 2024 are in question as well.

Higher for longer.

FIFY, good sir. While I correctly assessed that Michael Burry was early, fiscal accountability is indeed nigh. Gird thy loins.

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Starting to see trickles of syndicated multifam bros blowing up. Evidently a lot of those deals involve ARMs or shorter term loans that have to rollover now at higher rates. They need they to come down. Glad I got out of my little piece of one a while back. 

Yes. Folks in the apartment world that bought at inflated 2020-2022 pricing with floating rate cheap debt fund money (which was mostly everyone who bought in 2020-2022) have issues.
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5 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Unfortunately the cabal consist of more than 1 dummy. Hence pluralizing of the collective noun. 

Well, a cabal is a group, and as such it calls for the singular.  More than one cabal would call for the plural, but keep calling people "dummies".  It looks good on you.

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31 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Well, a cabal is a group, and as such it calls for the singular.  More than one cabal would call for the plural, but keep calling people "dummies".  It looks good on you.

Your command of English must be as good as it is of Economics. 

The verb agreement choice depends on context and/or region. Here’s UT Law faculty Wayne Schiess who “teaches legal writing, legal drafting, and plain English“:

Quote

“But if the emphasis is on the individuals in the group, the plural verb form is best.”1 The editors of Merriam-Webster’s English Usage Dictionary agree: “[W]hen the group is considered as a unit, the singular verb is used; when it is thought of as a collection of individuals, the plural verb is used.”

English is my 2nd language (out of 4).  What’s your excuse?

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Your command of English must be as good as it is of Economics. 

The verb agreement choice depends on context and/or region. Here’s UT Law faculty Wayne Schiess who “teaches legal writing, legal drafting, and plain English“:

English is my 2nd language (out of 4).  What’s your excuse?

What's my excuse?  I'm right.  Look in a fucking dictionary -- the plural of cabal is cabals.

The honorable professor's opinion is neither widespread nor correct.

Edited by jimmyjazz
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3 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

What's my excuse?  I'm right.  Look in a fucking dictionary -- the plural of cabal is cabals.

Listen to Wayne who teaches writing, or Gartner — whom he cites — who authors books in writing, or the editors of the oldest published dictionary in America…

…or to jimmyjazz?

whaddayasay, fellas?

 

IMG_5863.jpeg

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4 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

Listen to Wayne who teaches writing, or Gartner — whom he cites — who authors books in writing, or the editors of the oldest published dictionary in America…

…or to jimmyjazz?

whaddayasay, fellas?

Or my mother the English professor?

OK, dummy.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Or my mother the English professor?

OK, dummy.

Does she have a website that doesnt start with onlyfans.com? 

The short bus crew, consisting of jimmyjazz and friends, aren’t particularly bright

You see how the subject “crew” is a collective noun in singular form (rather than “crews”) agreeing perfectly with the plural “aren’t”?

Edited by 52-80
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11 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

The short bus crew, consisting of jimmyjazz and friends, aren’t particularly bright

You see how the subject “crew” is a collective noun in singular form (rather than “crews”) agreeing perfectly with the plural “aren’t”?

You do see how your construction of that statement is distinct from your original dummy statement, don't you?

Don't answer that, dummy.

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9 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

You do see how your construction of that statement is distinct from your original dummy statement, don't you?

Don't answer that, dummy.

Have the UT faculty failed in educating you?

Has the UT faculty failed in educating you?

Do answer that, dummy. 

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3 hours ago, Slacks said:

I click on this thread expecting opinion and insight on inflation and the effects it may have on the economy.

Inflation (regardless of the rate of inflation) is going up.  It's bad for the 99%.

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Slacks said:

I click on this thread expecting opinion and insight on inflation and the effects it may have on the economy.

Y'all some hoes.

Lol this thread is just a dumping ground for 52-80 to rage and correct people's English on a Sunday afternoon. 

PS - chocolate futures are going through the roof because it's very likely there's going to be much less chocolate in the future thanks to climate change destroying it's preferred ecology. If you want I can probably find a graph to explain it to you

Edited by Captainant
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9 hours ago, Captainant said:

Lol this thread is just a dumping ground for 52-80 to rage and correct people's English on a Sunday afternoon. 

PS - chocolate futures are going through the roof because it's very likely there's going to be much less chocolate in the future thanks to climate change destroying it's preferred ecology. If you want I can probably find a graph to explain it to you

*its

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CPI and PPI out Wednesday and Thursday. Overreactions will happen to CPI. 

Jerome’s favorite FED report of PCE is at end of month and will be overlooked as usual but be the most telling of his future plans.

Bernorange will post some zero hedge/drudge links from firms nobody knows from fund managers nobody has heard of.

I’ll remind you all of egg prices now that Texas has got hit with avian flu. Chocolate bars will be more expensive and the fatties will expose themselves.

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5 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

CPI and PPI out Wednesday and Thursday. Overreactions will happen to CPI. 

Jerome’s favorite FED report of PCE is at end of month and will be overlooked as usual but be the most telling of his future plans.

Bernorange will post some zero hedge/drudge links from firms nobody knows from fund managers nobody has heard of.

I’ll remind you all of egg prices now that Texas has got hit with avian flu. Chocolate bars will be more expensive and the fatties will expose themselves.

I don't speak for others, but I reject nihilism. Can't say for sure that's what you are selling.

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46 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

CPI and PPI out Wednesday and Thursday. Overreactions will happen to CPI. 

Jerome’s favorite FED report of PCE is at end of month and will be overlooked as usual but be the most telling of his future plans.

Bernorange will post some zero hedge/drudge links from firms nobody knows from fund managers nobody has heard of.

I’ll remind you all of egg prices now that Texas has got hit with avian flu. Chocolate bars will be more expensive and the fatties will expose themselves.

*been

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Since 1843, the US treasury has always accepted voluntary donation.  Can be cash, proceeds of asset sales, relief of bond obligations, etc...

Fun quiz: approx how much has it received every year?

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2 hours ago, 52-80 said:

Surly's leading economist also happens to be its foremost climatologist.  Climate changed rapidly and suddenly, only in 2023.  Because NPR told him so.

 

CC1!_2024-04-09_11-48-04.thumb.png.e3ec0a7fcfe808506390e62c1ae131e2.png

I'm sorry that inconvenient facts about negative externalities are triggering to you. The last three years of cocoa harvest have been ravaged by increasingly intense weather and temperatures. That is a trend that only accelerating with time. 

Are we really back at the "climate change is a hoax" stage of things?

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29 minutes ago, Captainant said:

I'm sorry that inconvenient facts about negative externalities are triggering to you. The last three years of cocoa harvest have been ravaged by increasingly intense weather and temperatures. That is a trend that only accelerating with time. 

Are we really back at the "climate change is a hoax" stage of things?

Whether climate changed or trended over time wasn’t a question. To most people I’d normally say “but you already knew that”. But its you, and you don’t know, because you lick rusty doorknobs for a hobby, so we’d have to draw it out:

What were the annual climatic fluctuation over the last 4 decades in the cocoa growing regions? Did the acceleration only occur last few years? Was there an inflection in the trend? And did nobody involved in cocoa ever know that until now? 
 

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On 4/6/2024 at 8:43 PM, Bozo_Casanova said:

I was at a conference a few weeks ago where some very serious bond and fixed income guys on a panel were all agreeing and nodding to each other that the rate environment was punitive and restrictive and also that the economy is really robust, unemployment is very low and there’s no reason to expect either wages or asset prices to stop rising. 

Things are tough all over!!!

image.png.8e524811f28c0fb2ba390166f290ed88.png

It’s hilarious because the last decade of no interest has broken everyone’s brain into thinking they are just entitled to free money that they didn’t earn just given to them and anything else is punitive. Free money isn’t a right lmao 

also I just got dragged into this thread by a reported post and was reviewing stuff. I get that this is an e-peen big brain measuring contest, but sometimes people are just paying attention and have opinions without having full context. That’s perfectly ok. 

@52-80 take a chill pill on dunking on everyone for not being as good of a grammar pro or economist as you. 

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3 hours ago, 52-80 said:

What were the annual climatic fluctuation over the last 4 decades in the cocoa growing regions? Did the acceleration only occur last few years? Was there an inflection in the trend? And did nobody involved in cocoa ever know that until now? 

Are you being intentionally obtuse? We have been seeing a string of record high temperatures globally that weren't hitting this frequently until now. Since last June, we've been breaking global temperature records each month. It makes sense that commodities that are highly climate sensitive would start to skyrocket in price just from a natural reduction in supply - and then that trend can be turbocharged by market speculation hoping to bet the right way.

I don't think it's a remarkable position to argue that the cocoa price spike is foundationally driven by the worsening of our global ecology thanks to rising global temperature and carbon emissions.

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

 

@52-80 take a chill pill on dunking on everyone for not being as good of a grammar pro or economist as you. 

jimmyjazz was the person first calling out my grammar. so he (probably) isnt daft enough to report on a tangent of his own doing. 

which must means the mod reporting was the dumb guy getting upset at being called dumb on the internet which is atleast a little funny.

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Posted (edited)
22 minutes ago, 52-80 said:

which must means the mod reporting was the dumb guy getting upset at being called dumb on the internet which is atleast a little funny.

I'm pretty used to being called dumb, but that's usually followed by something of actual substance rather than consistent personal attacks. You don't even engage with the argument I'm making and just call me a retard or shizo or doorknob licker. @immamac has always been pretty consistent with "no personal attacks" as a site rule so I'm just doing what he's asked and reporting instead of responding in kind. 

 

Edited by Captainant
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