Jump to content

2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

Recommended Posts

People have been howling about the imminent deficit spending induced collapse for a half century.  That's not to say it can't or won't happen, but the hysteria has been roughly the same the whole time.

  • Hook 'Em 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

People have been howling about the imminent deficit spending induced collapse for a half century.  That's not to say it can't or won't happen, but the hysteria has been roughly the same the whole time.

In my experience, it typically gets louder during certain periods, and then forgotten during other periods. 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Haha 1
  • Rage+1 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/16/2024 at 8:09 PM, jimmyjazz said:

I'm sure he was right to some extent, but in my career prior to entering the private sector, I did a lot of research for ARPA/DARPA/etc., and wrote several successfully-funded proposals.  The way projects were strung along with funding piled on funding even when goals weren't remotely met (performance/schedule/both) was disgusting.  I was glad to get out.  There is a lot of waste in that world.  All of defense?  No idea.  Where I was?  Absolutely.

Now do that same mental calculus with the healthcare industry and you'll really see where some of our problems lie.  

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

58 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Yes, because of insurance companies.

And because of lobbyists.   And because of politicians in the pockets of lobbyists.  And because of politicians profiteering off the stock prices of companies.  And because of the laws of the land at some points in time that benefited north the companies and the politicians.    And so forth.   

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just a reminder—Higher rates makes goods and services more expensive.

Unfortunately, higher rates also supply income (interest income) to support higher prices (i.e., “stickyfying” higher prices, especially in the services sector).

IMG_1125.thumb.jpeg.395c0f7fb07fc2c62048bdd7b2cea38e.jpeg

IMG_1124.thumb.jpeg.d171e6483116cfd5d339d27ec1e2f9f6.jpeg

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, washparkhorn said:

Just a reminder—Higher rates makes goods and services more expensive.

Unfortunately, higher rates also supply income (interest income) to support higher prices (i.e., “stickyfying” higher prices, especially in the services sector).

IMG_1125.thumb.jpeg.395c0f7fb07fc2c62048bdd7b2cea38e.jpeg

IMG_1124.thumb.jpeg.d171e6483116cfd5d339d27ec1e2f9f6.jpeg

 

I'd love to see the breakdown between wages paid to people providing services vs revenues generated. I'd bet there's a similar divergence that tracks more with revenue than with wages - prices have gone up a shitload faster than wages

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/18/2024 at 11:20 PM, jimmyjazz said:

People have been howling about the imminent deficit spending induced collapse for a half century.  That's not to say it can't or won't happen, but the hysteria has been roughly the same the whole time.

True. But there is a problem with the BRICS nations and ASEAN nations trying de-dollarization. Russia, Iran, and North Korea have been sanctioned off for a couple of years to decades. China and India have bought up enough gold and silver that COMEX and the LBM no longer control the precious metals market. The Bank of Shanghi has the majority of the World's gold, currently, and China is going to use it to back the BRICS currency, after they start a situation that gets them sanctioned by the Western nations.

We are dangerously close to loosing half of the nations, in the East, using US dollars as a reserve currency. The bond market is shit. Central banks are using printed dollars to buy up as much gold as they can, but foreign governments are reluctant to buy US debt. China liquidated from three billion dollars down to about 700 billion. I'm not sure who will eventually get left holding the bag, but someone is. The US has, by far, had the longest standing fiat currency, even though it has truly been a fiat currency since 1971. We have been printing money with nothing to back it for decades. The federal government just prints money to buy its own bonds. I have heard people say we will just inflate the debt away, others that say the trap has been laid. We may have some hyperinflation, followed by austerity  measures. No one will like it, but something has to be "reset".

CHIEF

  • Hook 'Em 2
  • Haha 1
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted (edited)
10 hours ago, CHIEF said:

True. But there is a problem with the BRICS nations and ASEAN nations trying de-dollarization. Russia, Iran, and North Korea have been sanctioned off for a couple of years to decades. China and India have bought up enough gold and silver that COMEX and the LBM no longer control the precious metals market. The Bank of Shanghi has the majority of the World's gold, currently, and China is going to use it to back the BRICS currency, after they start a situation that gets them sanctioned by the Western nations.

The BRICS countries all want their own individual currency to be used and don't really want the others' currency. Good luck with all of that.

Edited by Schulz2.0
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Schulz2.0 said:

The BRICS countries all want their own individual currency to be used and don't really want the others' currency. Good luck with all of that.

The other flaw with @CHIEF’s prediction is its presumption that the central government in China or India have control over their market participants and could enforce transactions in their sovereign currency.  The Eurodollar podcast guys have repeatedly pointed out that every time, for example, the Chinese start making pronouncements that this might happen, large amounts of private money flows out of the country.  
 

Chinese investors may not like using dollars, but they like them a whole lot more than yuan.

  • Hook 'Em 3
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

This guy is a good listen. I started listening to him before I purchased precious metals. He lays out what he thinks will happen. The big one is he believes OPEC and the Saudis will start taking payment in other currencies besides the US dollar before eventually moving completely out of dollars. No currency has been the World's reserve currency for much more than a hundred years or so.

CHIEF

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/19/2024 at 6:20 AM, jimmyjazz said:

People have been howling about the imminent deficit spending induced collapse for a half century.  That's not to say it can't or won't happen, but the hysteria has been roughly the same the whole time.

There's definitely no reason to consider today's concern as anything but the typical howling of the last half century.

fredgraph.thumb.png.4bf5af239bb6b49cb33b642ba918e6dc.png

fredgraph(3).thumb.png.3fa3b3fc05420254a23fbe25384466e9.png

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Goddamn Beeks never said a word 

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/05/30/orange-juice-makers-turn-to-alternative-fruits-amid-record-high-prices.html

Quote

Orange juice prices are going through the roof 

 

  • The benchmark frozen concentrated orange juice futures, traded on the Intercontinental Exchange in New York, closed at another record high of $4.77 per pound on Wednesday.
  • Harry Campbell, a commodity market data analyst at research group Mintec, said that soaring orange juice prices have forced manufacturers and blenders to adapt to the situation by considering alternative fruit juices.

image.png.95117f44becd113ccea2ad784ec4c6c1.png

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/24/2024 at 12:26 PM, Captainant said:

I'd love to see the breakdown between wages paid to people providing services vs revenues generated. I'd bet there's a similar divergence that tracks more with revenue than with wages - prices have gone up a shitload faster than wages

Well, there's a multiplier effect on wages in terms of prices of goods in the market...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/27/2024 at 5:05 PM, CHIEF said:

I misquoted the amount of US debt that China has sold off. They had three trillion worth and sold off all but $700 billion. They are using that $2.3 trillion to buy up all the precious metals they can.

CHIEF

So they likely sold debt at a lower price than they bought it.  There's also a lot of annual flow, because the US isn't settling trade differentials with China with cash.  It's always debt.  Therefore, if China wants to keep selling rubber dog shit to the good people of Wink, TX and and Toad Suck, AR they will have to purchase US debt at some point.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

So they likely sold debt at a lower price than they bought it.  There's also a lot of annual flow, because the US isn't settling trade differentials with China with cash.  It's always debt.  Therefore, if China wants to keep selling rubber dog shit to the good people of Wink, TX and and Toad Suck, AR they will have to purchase US debt at some point.  

I think they are positioning themselves for when that all stops with an invasion of Taiwan. Get anything you can get right now before they are stuck with the debt because of sanctions.

CHIEF

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 5/26/2024 at 5:51 PM, CHIEF said:

True. But there is a problem with the BRICS nations and ASEAN nations trying de-dollarization. Russia, Iran, and North Korea have been sanctioned off for a couple of years to decades. China and India have bought up enough gold and silver that COMEX and the LBM no longer control the precious metals market. The Bank of Shanghi has the majority of the World's gold, currently, and China is going to use it to back the BRICS currency, after they start a situation that gets them sanctioned by the Western nations.

We are dangerously close to loosing half of the nations, in the East, using US dollars as a reserve currency. The bond market is shit. Central banks are using printed dollars to buy up as much gold as they can, but foreign governments are reluctant to buy US debt. China liquidated from three billion dollars down to about 700 billion. I'm not sure who will eventually get left holding the bag, but someone is. The US has, by far, had the longest standing fiat currency, even though it has truly been a fiat currency since 1971. We have been printing money with nothing to back it for decades. The federal government just prints money to buy its own bonds. I have heard people say we will just inflate the debt away, others that say the trap has been laid. We may have some hyperinflation, followed by austerity  measures. No one will like it, but something has to be "reset".

CHIEF

The two biggest Brics players will never be all in together. 
 

 

  • Fuck You 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.



×
×
  • Create New...