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2021 - Is inflation finally back in the conversation?


Reagan1k

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4 minutes ago, elfenix said:

arrests are up and i'm the one deflecting. right.

again, not uncontrolled.  maybe not as controlled as we'd like, but not uncontrolled.

You are either one dense motherfucker, or you are being intentionally stubborn.  There is a high multiple factor of actual border crossings vs border arrests.  If there are more arrests, there are more crossings.  This isn't a fucking novel concept.  

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5 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

You are either one dense motherfucker, or you are being intentionally stubborn.  There is a high multiple factor of actual border crossings vs border arrests.  If there are more arrests, there are more crossings.  This isn't a fucking novel concept.  

He’s implying that if 1/4 of all crossers are arrested then it’s not uncontrolled. Semantics. 

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1 minute ago, GRHorn said:

He’s implying that if 1/4 of all crossers are arrested then it’s not uncontrolled. Semantics. 

Oh, I know what he's implying.  But he's celebrating the sweeping of the shelled peanuts while ignoring the elephant sitting in the corner.  

 

 

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well, if it's that uncontrolled, and i think you'd agree that it's been that uncontrolled for a while (decades), then maintaining similar levels of uncontrolled isn't going to lead to notable changes in wages from today's levels. 

Edited by elfenix
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11 minutes ago, elfenix said:

well, if it's that uncontrolled, and i think you'd agree that it's been that uncontrolled for a while (decades), then maintaining similar levels of uncontrolled isn't going to lead to notable changes in wages from today's levels. 

It depends on country of origin to be honest.   A massive influx of Venezuelans at the border, which we’ve been seeing, could cap lower level wages for a while.  

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17 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

It depends on country of origin to be honest.   A massive influx of Venezuelans at the border, which we’ve been seeing, could cap lower level wages for a while.  

are venezuelans noticeably lower skillset than others that have been coming in?

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16 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Nothing I bought last year was cheaper than the year before. 

we had a small amount of deflation at the beginning of last year with the bottom of the trough in may.  it was small and short enough to not fall year-year, but it did fall from month-month. 

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and against a 2-3% target rate cone:

 

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Edited by elfenix
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As predicted, production capacity remains adequate to meet demand, but ramping up has resulted in bottlenecks as we get this machine humming along again. But Chicken Littles will Chicken. 

Markets are  signaling the Fed will increase rates at the end of 2022. Look at the dollar.

Base effect is gonna base effect. Always look at what happening last year (since that is the comparison number). 

Good luck and thanks for all the fish. We don't need another political board since we already have two - the DT/CR. 

See you down the road. 

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39 minutes ago, elfenix said:

well, if it's that uncontrolled, and i think you'd agree that it's been that uncontrolled for a while (decades), then maintaining similar levels of uncontrolled isn't going to lead to notable changes in wages from today's levels. 

I'll be sure and let my Hispanic contractor's workers know they can rest easy, and their concerns are simply unfounded. A guy from a football internet message board let me know. 

CHIEF

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7 hours ago, gsoda3 said:

inflation is simply the measure of the rising cost of goods and services.  whether it's caused by a s/d issue or a buying power issue is irrelevant.  inflation is here.  if it carries on long enough it's like an overstretched rubber band where prices don't fall back to previous levels.    

Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.  But which side of that sentence we are on in the long run is the question.  I tend to agree with the Fed and economists that it's the later, as a result of a shrunken covid economy.  The other side of this question is the Fed has an absolute US Military level arsenal of tools to address the former. As much as inflation is a bogeyman, it's a tameable bogeyman.

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9 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

I'll be sure and let my Hispanic contractor's workers know they can rest easy, and their concerns are simply unfounded. A guy from a football internet message board let me know. 

CHIEF

i guess i have to wonder why you're participating in a discussion of economics on a football message board if you don't want people to comment on economics on a football message board. 

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14 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

A guy from a football internet message board let me know. 

CHIEF

This is fucking hilarious considering that you, an anonymous poster on a football internet message board, came on this thread and presented some random anecdote about hispanic workers in rural areas making bank and being worried about illegal immigration as something that should be considered when formulating monetary policy.

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2 minutes ago, elfenix said:

i guess i have to wonder why you're participating in a discussion of economics on a football message board if you don't want people to comment on economics on a football message board. 

Because you have no idea what you are talking about on wage effect.. These workers make $50-60k per year. I have known them for many years, and have spent many hours with them. I know most of their life history. They are semi-skilled workers, and if it is one thing Mexicans know how to do, it is construction work. They are friends and have friends here. Anytime more Mexican Nationals move in it drives down their wages. It means they have to pack up their families and businesses and move farther North to maintain their standard of living. They have done it several times before. How many of these businesses, friends, and families do you communicate with daily to make the statement that it won't effect their wages?

CHIEF

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This is fucking hilarious considering that you, an anonymous poster on a football internet message board, came on this thread and presented some random anecdote about hispanic workers in rural areas making bank and being worried about illegal immigration as something that should be considered when formulating monetary policy.

I read your response in Jefe’s voice. Weird.

All that is missing is a gratuitous use of “superior intellect.”
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On 5/11/2021 at 3:52 PM, elfenix said:

so basically what you've got now on the left is the old guys who think that inflation is the bigger danger, while the young guys think that the lack of real wage growth we've been experiencing since the end of stagflation is the bigger danger.

Should have quoted this with my original statement about the rising wages of those in non service professions. Unskilled and service workers have definitely seen stagflation.

CHIEF

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34 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Because you have no idea what you are talking about on wage effect.. These workers make $50-60k per year. I have known them for many years, and have spent many hours with them. I know most of their life history. They are semi-skilled workers, and if it is one thing Mexicans know how to do, it is construction work. They are friends and have friends here. Anytime more Mexican Nationals move in it drives down their wages. It means they have to pack up their families and businesses and move farther North to maintain their standard of living. They have done it several times before. How many of these businesses, friends, and families do you communicate with daily to make the statement that it won't effect their wages?

CHIEF

sorry, i was thinking for natives.  seems like the data out there for recent immigrants is largely inconclusive but it isn't a well-studied issue.  cortes (2006) found only slight inelasticity (10% more immigrants in the model led to 8% wage drop among immigrants), but lamented that the data were noisy so that wasn't statistically significant.  so your anecdotes are quite within the realm of the data. 

 

20 minutes ago, CHIEF said:

Should have quoted this with my original statement about the rising wages of those in non service professions. Unskilled and service workers have definitely seen stagflation.

CHIEF

what do you mean by this?

Edited by elfenix
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51 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Inflation is too much money chasing too few goods.  But which side of that sentence we are on in the long run is the question.  I tend to agree with the Fed and economists that it's the later, as a result of a shrunken covid economy.  The other side of this question is the Fed has an absolute US Military level arsenal of tools to address the former. As much as inflation is a bogeyman, it's a tameable bogeyman.

How is it tamed?
 

Raising interest rates, right? That’s one of the big issues we have. We can’t have rates go too high because of the size of the debt. 
 

Or by the MMT school of thought, you raise taxes to pull money out of the economy to tame inflation. Politically, that will be very difficult. 
 

In short, I think it would be harder to tame than you I guess. 

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15 minutes ago, elfenix said:

sorry, i was thinking for natives.  seems like the data out there for recent immigrants is largely inconclusive but it isn't a well-studied issue.  cortes (2006) found only slight inelasticity (10% more immigrants in the model led to 8% wage drop among immigrants), but lamented that the data were noisy so that wasn't statistically significant.  so your anecdotes are quite within the realm of the data. 

 

what do you mean by this?

Food service, maid service at hotels, janitors, busboys, dishwashers, and the like. Jobs that literally take minutes to learn, or skills that the employee probably learned at home. Physical jobs, but most of the time done in the comfort of HVAC. 

CHIEF

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38 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

How is it tamed?
 

Raising interest rates, right? That’s one of the big issues we have. We can’t have rates go too high because of the size of the debt. 
 

Or by the MMT school of thought, you raise taxes to pull money out of the economy to tame inflation. Politically, that will be very difficult. 
 

In short, I think it would be harder to tame than you I guess. 

Size of the debt isn’t the feds problem.  that’s not it’s mission. 

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Food service, maid service at hotels, janitors, busboys, dishwashers, and the like. Jobs that literally take minutes to learn, or skills that the employee probably learned at home. Physical jobs, but most of the time done in the comfort of HVAC. 
CHIEF
What do you mean by they're seeing stagflation
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4 hours ago, CHIEF said:

I'll be sure and let my Hispanic contractor's workers know they can rest easy, and their concerns are simply unfounded. A guy from a football internet message board let me know. 

CHIEF

Your Hispanic contractor doesn’t have to hire low wage illegal immigrants. Matter of fact he probably shouldn’t do that since it’s against the law and stuff.

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3 hours ago, ChiTownDoc said:

https://apple.news/AVSCk41bJR9OpH51rYH-x7A
 

Hope the link works.  Inflation fears still overblown.  

0BFA134E-7441-4851-B372-A466BF95E868.png

Bloomberg has become as bad as FoxNews in the last 10 years.  Unless it’s a Bloomberg terminal, their news network is hot garbage in German of real reporting.   Al Jazeera is a more unbiased network for actual business news than Bloomberg. 

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9 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

Bloomberg has become as bad as FoxNews in the last 10 years.  Unless it’s a Bloomberg terminal, their news network is hot garbage in German of real reporting.   Al Jazeera is a more unbiased network for actual business news than Bloomberg. 

You have to look at who wrote it.  Shep was on FoxNews and was not a total shill.  Matt Klein wrote for the Economist and Financial Times which are pretty much right down th middle.  Al Jazeera is great - you'd assume they're not because of the very brown sounding name?  

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15 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

You have to look at who wrote it.  Shep was on FoxNews and was not a total shill.  Matt Klein wrote for the Economist and Financial Times which are pretty much right down th middle.  Al Jazeera is great - you'd assume they're not because of the very brown sounding name?  

I don’t assume they’re not, I know they’re not because I actually watch them.  Bloomberg TV is pretty solid still, but Bloomberg online is not as good as it used to be.   I’m a multi- business media consumer, and it’s pretty hard as an avid reader to not observe how things have changed over the past 15 years or so.  

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4 minutes ago, Trey3216 said:

I don’t assume they’re not, I know they’re not because I actually watch them.  Bloomberg TV is pretty solid still, but Bloomberg online is not as good as it used to be.   I’m a multi- business media consumer, and it’s pretty hard as an avid reader to not observe how things have changed over the past 15 years or so.  

Totally agree - I'm just saying you need to see who wrote what imo, not just where it's being posted.  But being aware of what you're consuming is something all of us should do - and most don't.  

Edit:  the al-jazeera thing was a joke...sarcasm font 

Edited by ChiTownDoc
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4 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Size of the debt isn’t the feds problem.  that’s not it’s mission. 

It’s not its stated mission, but it’s becoming politicized. It monetizes the debt that’s funding our increased expenditures. 

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7 hours ago, GRHorn said:

It’s not its stated mission, but it’s becoming politicized. It monetizes the debt that’s funding our increased expenditures. 

sounds like an us problem, not a DaddyJpow problem. if the fed wants to end inflation, it can and will.  Despite people trying to act like we are Zimbabwe, we aren’t. you end quantitative easing and start bumping the inter loan rate by 50 bp quarterly, and the economy will cool down in a hurry.  if you want to believe that Powell is Arthur Burns, knock your self out. Hes’s not.

 

The best analogy I can find to the economy is late 1945.  we have an economy geared to do one thing (WW2/pandemic) that is changing to another (Bring them home/shot girl summer). And that economic transition is going to be turbulent.  

The one change I would make right away is making the extra unemployment benefits convertible to a bonus.  So if you go back to work now, you still get the money.  

Edited by Bateshorn
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14 hours ago, elfenix said:

are Venezuelans noticeably lower skillset than others that have been coming in?

Not sure about that but pre pandemic, my wife and I were on several cruises in the Caribbean and everywhere we went, any problem that existed were blamed on the Venezuelan refugees.  Just the latest people off the boat in my opinion, no more or less skilled than anyone else. 

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3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

sounds like an us problem, not a DaddyJpow problem. if the fed wants to end inflation, it can and will.  Despite people trying to act like we are Zimbabwe, we aren’t. you end quantitative easing and start bumping the inter loan rate by 50 bp quarterly, and the economy will cool down in a hurry.  if you want to believe that Powell is Arthur Burns, knock your self out. Hes’s not.

The one change I would make right away is making the extra unemployment benefits convertible to a bonus.  So if you go back to work now, you still get the money.  

He's not saying the FED "can't"....he's saying they "won't" for political reasons

Quote

The best analogy I can find to the economy is late 1945.  we have an economy geared to do one thing (WW2/pandemic) that is changing to another (Bring them home/shot girl summer). And that economic transition is going to be turbulent.  

You have to remember that after the war the US manufacturing capacity benefitted GREATLY from being one of only a handful of intact sectors across the entire globe.  All their European and Asian competition was in rubble.  It bought them time.  So much time that it took until the 60's & 70's for some sectors to show how far behind they'd fallen (automobiles for example or electronics).

We don't have that kind of time or monopolistic advantages now as the paradigm shifts.  

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7 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

He's not saying the FED "can't"....he's saying they "won't" for political reasons

 

Exactly.  There has been and will be plenty of coordination going forward.  Who’s the Treasury Secretary? Oh yeah. 

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17 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

Exactly.  There has been and will be plenty of coordination going forward.  Who’s the Treasury Secretary? Oh yeah. 

The same treasury secretary who ended QE 2 and raised rates during the Obama administration as Fed Chair?   

Edited by Bateshorn
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20 minutes ago, BabaYaga said:

He's not saying the FED "can't"....he's saying they "won't" for political reasons

You have to remember that after the war the US manufacturing capacity benefitted GREATLY from being one of only a handful of intact sectors across the entire globe.  All their European and Asian competition was in rubble.  It bought them time.  So much time that it took until the 60's & 70's for some sectors to show how far behind they'd fallen (automobiles for example or electronics).

We don't have that kind of time or monopolistic advantages now as the paradigm shifts.  

I’m not talking about the long term post war recovery.  i’m literally talking about September of 1945 through about mid year 1947 as the domestic economy had to completely retool and accept the returning GI’s.  It was chaos and a huge contraction.  Why do you think the GOP took back Congress?  only to lose it again 2 years later?  

It’s not a perfect analogy, but it’s illustrative of an economy in short term turmoil as opposed to say an entire decade of stagflation due to a pliable fed chair with a poor understanding of monetary policy. 

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15 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I’m not talking about the long term post war recovery.  i’m literally talking about September of 1945 through about mid year 1947 as the domestic economy had to completely retool and accept the returning GI’s.  It was chaos and a huge contraction.  Why do you think the GOP took back Congress?  only to lose it again 2 years later?  

It’s not a perfect analogy, but it’s illustrative of an economy in short term turmoil as opposed to say an entire decade of stagflation due to a pliable fed chair with a poor understanding of monetary policy. 

Gotcha

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3 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

The same treasury secretary who ended QE 2 and raised rates during the Obama administration as Fed Chair?   

You don’t see a difference between then, when she had only been Fed Chair, and now when she’s been on both sides of the fence? Or when X trillions of dollars more debt has been added since? 
 


 

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13 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

You don’t see a difference between then, when she had only been Fed Chair, and now when she’s been on both sides of the fence? Or when X trillions of dollars more debt has been added since? 

Boy, I remember when you used to bitch daily about the exploding national debt during the Trump administration.

Oh, wait, I don't.  Fuck off.

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51 minutes ago, GRHorn said:

You don’t see a difference between then, when she had only been Fed Chair, and now when she’s been on both sides of the fence? Or when X trillions of dollars more debt has been added since? 
 


 

No.  I actually believe people have the integrity to do the right thing.

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In 1957 when my family was staying at the Sahara Hotel in Vegas, I went to the pool bar to get a Coke. Handed over a dime for what I thought would be a 7 cent bottle & get 3 cents change. 
When the bartender said “That’ll be 25 cents, kid” I knew I had entered life’s fast lane living.

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1 hour ago, Armybrat said:

In 1957 when my family was staying at the Sahara Hotel in Vegas, I went to the pool bar to get a Coke. Handed over a dime for what I thought would be a 7 cent bottle & get 3 cents change. 
When the bartender said “That’ll be 25 cents, kid” I knew I had entered life’s fast lane living.

Ike. 

Republican. 

Inflation.

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7 hours ago, jimmyjazz said:

Boy, I remember when you used to bitch daily about the exploding national debt during the Trump administration.

Oh, wait, I don't.  Fuck off.

Huh, I’ve always been against massive deficits and debt. Most Bitcoin enthusiasts tilt Austrian. 

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