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Blastfurnace 2021


Storm the Field

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1 hour ago, Trey3216 said:

But that doesn't give Lobo anything to bitch about.  

I've been giving nonstop thanks on this thread (or maybe it's on the rain thread) for the weather.  And we've taken full advantage as a family.    Sorry for talking about the heat on a thread about the heat.  I look forward to you needing a sweater on those 75 degree Waco fall nights ;)    Call me, we'll snuggle.

one thing I meant to do this mild summer was take up bourbon again on the nice evenings (i just could not drink that shit when it's above 85/90).  Just wine and the occasional vodka cocktail.  Which works out well since Hate is drinking all the fucking bourbon in Texas again this summer.  

We were not going to engage the kids in a lot of indoor shit this summer with Covid still flaming, so the fact that's it's been mild with plenty rain, we were able to do so much cool shit outdoors that I did not think possible with only 1 or 2 instances of the kids clearly needing an A/C break, and only after several hours.  I find it in poor taste to talk with God about the weather.  But we have openly prayed many times to God and Mother Nature.  We needed a mild summer in Texas for a number of reasons.  Got another 6 weeks though, let's not start sucking each other's bourbons yet.  

 

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3 hours ago, Lobo said:

I've been giving nonstop thanks on this thread (or maybe it's on the rain thread) for the weather.  And we've taken full advantage as a family.    Sorry for talking about the heat on a thread about the heat.  I look forward to you needing a sweater on those 75 degree Waco fall nights ;)    Call me, we'll snuggle.

one thing I meant to do this mild summer was take up bourbon again on the nice evenings (i just could not drink that shit when it's above 85/90).  Just wine and the occasional vodka cocktail.  Which works out well since Hate is drinking all the fucking bourbon in Texas again this summer.  

We were not going to engage the kids in a lot of indoor shit this summer with Covid still flaming, so the fact that's it's been mild with plenty rain, we were able to do so much cool shit outdoors that I did not think possible with only 1 or 2 instances of the kids clearly needing an A/C break, and only after several hours.  I find it in poor taste to talk with God about the weather.  But we have openly prayed many times to God and Mother Nature.  We needed a mild summer in Texas for a number of reasons.  Got another 6 weeks though, let's not start sucking each other's bourbons yet.  

 

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You're gonna get through this old man, I have faith in you Trey3216.  

One other good thing actually about this summer is a lot of places are still kinda "skeleton-crew"-ish in terms of not every office is full with all the HVAC and lights turned on quite yet.  I think we're getting there this Autumn.  Plus all the schools back up and running at 100% capacity.  And then all retail and hospitality and industrial, all creeping back up to 100%.  Thankfully it's been a mild summer plus those other factors.  We still flirted with 95% grid capacity.  If we had been "life as usual" plus a usual Texas Summer, our grid would have collapsed again.  We still might strain it a month from now with one of those usual September blastfurnaces plus all CRE and schools back at full capacity.  

A mild summer helped us deal with Covid-19.  Covid-19 helped us deal with an unprepared ERCOT.  An unprepared ERCOT helped us deal with our own futility.  

Can you imagine a more serious Delta wave with kids back at home learning with no A/C in September and 105 degree temps?  I thank God and Mother Nature for throwing our dumbasses a bone.  

Taking the kids fishing early tomorrow and then to the waterfall at Wild Basin.  

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4 hours ago, Lobo said:

 

one thing I meant to do this mild summer was take up bourbon again on the nice evenings (i just could not drink that shit when it's above 85/90).  Just wine and the occasional vodka cocktail.  Which works out well since Hate is drinking all the fucking bourbon in Texas again this summer.  

 

 

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(Crossposted/edited from rain thread):

Big day yesterday - after the past 3 weeks of daily normal (not actual, normal) highs of 99°, which is our hottest avg. temp of the year, yesterday's was "down" to 98°.  Meaning we've begun our winter shift - temp norms will continue to go down now through about Feb. when they hit the low 60's.  Yeah, "big day", not really, but we do have the seasonal cooling kicking in, however gradually.  Of course as we know from 2 years ago, September can easily have daily highs > 100° all month (I think we had 29 100°+ days) but we had a pretty good boost from a fiery August - which is anything but what we have so far.  So by the end of Aug. normal temp is about 95°, mid-Sept. 90°, end of Sept. 87° or so.

Might not make a big difference yet, but at least psychologically we're "getting cooler" after peaking our normal temp for the year.

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Well, we'll finally get about 4 or 5 days in a row where temps could easily get to 100 or above, but starting about Wednesday they're supposed to go back down into the mid-90s or even lower.  That's been about normal this entire summer.

Edited by phdhorn
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Last day of the hots for awhile, and it's only been like 98°, so c'mon, it hasn't been that bad - at all.

Anyway, high slides off to the E, another forms in the W, and we're in between.  Temps will go down into the mid, then low 90's into the weekend.

Depending on this tropical thing in the Antilles, temps could be 70's-80's early next week.  But our history is that they go east of us and we're not and dry (near 100°).  

In either case, we will likely get out of August with three (maybe four if today hits 100°, best chance for the next week) 100°+ days the entire summer.  Memorable to say the least.

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Bit of an update (cross-posted in Rain thread):

The expected "post-hurricane heat wave" effect from Ida really isn't gonna happen, or at least all that much.  You'll notice today in ATX that, far from feeling hot and dry under sinking, heated air, we're more like this atypical summer - a bit humid with showers popping up all around.  But wait - doesn't the west side of a hurricane draw dry air and heats it up?  Yeah, but.. we have some asterisks here:

- First, Ida was powerful but not all that big.  It was fairly far away from us on its western edge (at least 30 miles into Louisiana).  So its effect is a little less.
- Second, we have the remnants of a Pacific storm (Nora) that's been raining itself out over SE Mexico.  Even if it's not directly moving toward us, enough moisture and clouds from it are drifting our way to put a translucent blanket over us and keeping us a little cooler.  

Doesn't mean temps can't hit 100° (although they almost certainly won't today, maybe tomorrow).  But rain chances are at least notable (20-30%) and a good portion of the area's gotten rain today.  Highs today should peak out about 95°.  Tomorrow would be the best chance for 100°, but I'm not sure it'll get there.  Then temps go down to about mid-90's the rest of the week.  Because summer 2021 gonna summer 2021.

Enjoy the rain the next 2 days if you get lucky.

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Looks like Houston will make it the entire summer without ever hitting 100. Forecast highs of 96 tomorrow and 95 Wednesday should likely be the highest temps we see through the remainder of the year.

That said, Summer 2021 ain't moving on anytime too soon. 15-day forecast is just more and more of the same of what we've been seeing for months, mid to low 90's and moderate rain chances just about every day. 

Pretty soon, I'll start hunting through the GFS models looking for any sign of an upcoming cool down. Having turned into a big weather nerd in my late 30's, I've pored through historical data over the years and if you want to define "cool down" as seeing a temperature that stars with a 6, then it can happen anywhere from 8/30 to 10/12, with the typical first front arriving sometime in the 2nd half of September.

It's a total crap shoot based on last few years:

2016: 68 on 9/28

2017: 64 on 9/7

2018: 66 on 10/11

2019: 66 on 10/8

2020: 68 on 9/26

Edited by Storm the Field
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Halloween in Houston.  This is generally when it feels "nice" again.  September fools the newbs in thinking that the cool down starts, but it seems September can be as brutal, or worse, than August.  Then comes October and the girls bust out a sweater because the low is 67. Starbucks makes a strong appearance while highs are 88-90 still.  Love this city from November through April though.  Especially, Nov to Dec.

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55 minutes ago, Texas St. Armadillos said:

Halloween in Houston.  This is generally when it feels "nice" again.  September fools the newbs in thinking that the cool down starts, but it seems September can be as brutal, or worse, than August.  Then comes October and the girls bust out a sweater because the low is 67. Starbucks makes a strong appearance while highs are 88-90 still.  Love this city from November through April though.  Especially, Nov to Dec.(*)

* - Except last February.....

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22 minutes ago, Blotto said:

Last year wasn't even that bad until August when it got really brutal really quickly. I remember a couple days last year where it was still 100 at 8 pm. Not sure we've even hit 100 at any point during the day this year. 

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11 hours ago, Blotto said:

And the original thread from '18 that I started went 13 pages and it was started in mid July if I remember  

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September is quickly shaping up to be the Karen of months.  

Hopefully the forecast for some rain first half of next week comes to fruition.  Grass is starting to make that crunchy sound again.

I'm looking outside at my neighbor's grass.  For some reason, they saw fit in late August to put down new sod.  It's only rained once since they did it so I'm blaming them. 

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I don't know if the milder summer got me out of playing shape, or if I'm just turning into a pussy as I get older, but I was walking from my car to my kid's school yesterday to pick him up at 3:00 p.m., and I was thinking to myself, "Holy fuck, I gotta be out in this shit for several hours on Saturday for the football game.  Am I going to make it?"

Fuck you, FOX.

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3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I don't know if the milder summer got me out of playing shape, or if I'm just turning into a pussy as I get older

Each year that passes, my tolerance level for this shit wanes.  By the time August rolls around, the heat and humidity really starts getting on my nerves. By September, I'm fucking sick of it. The arrival of the first Fall cool front is the best day of the year.

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1 minute ago, Storm the Field said:

Each year that passes, my tolerance level for this shit wanes.  By the time August rolls around, the heat and humidity really starts getting on my nerves. By September, I'm fucking sick of it. The arrival of the first Fall cool front is the best day of the year.

It's funny, because I've lived in Texas since 1994 after moving from the East Coast, and I've always said I've gotten used to the heat.  Something about yesterday's midafternoon heat and humidity was particularly suffocating.  Hopefully after a few beers in tomorrow I won't be as bothered by it.

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Every year Scott Fischer makes it a big point to remind viewers that September 1st is the start of meteorological 'Fall' and the equinox in late September is just the astronomical start of 'Fall.' 

Well Scott, blow it your ass.  There's nothing 'Fall-like' in Austin in the first 20 days of September.  It's still technically summer and it sure as shit feels like it.

--------------------------------

Now then folks...predictions...before/at the game tomorrow, how long you will you stick to your pledge of, "Okay, I'll have one water for every one drink." ?

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I'm heading off to Aspen for a short trip later this month. Typically by the 3rd weekend of September the daytime high is 70 or less and the overnight low is around 40. They might have to drag me kicking and screaming onto the plane to head back to Houston.

Edited by Storm the Field
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50 minutes ago, Storm the Field said:

I'm heading off to Aspen for a short trip later this month. Typically by the 3rd weekend of September the daytime high is 70 or less and the overnight low is around 40. They might have to drag me kicking and screaming onto the plane to head back to Houston.

I don’t know, Storm the Field. The French are assholes.

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Every year Scott Fischer makes it a big point to remind viewers that September 1st is the start of meteorological 'Fall' and the equinox in late September is just the astronomical start of 'Fall.' 
Well Scott, blow it your ass.  There's nothing 'Fall-like' in Austin in the first 20 days of September.  It's still technically summer and it sure as shit feels like it.
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Now then folks...predictions...before/at the game tomorrow, how long you will you stick to your pledge of, "Okay, I'll have one water for every one drink." ?
#TeamSpencer
#TeamYeomans
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