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2022 Transfer Thread - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)


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1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Bobby:


**

We continue to hear positive remarks on both Alabama wide receiver and TCU defensive end Ochaun Mathis.

Mathis made a surprise visit to Texas on Saturday while he was home visiting his family over the weekend. While Mathis says he is deciding by the end of the month between Texas and Nebraska, it’s clearly a good sign he showed up in Austin for the second time this spring, and is due back again next week for the spring game.

Hall’s recruitment is much more cloudy. Texas is very much under consideration. But what other schools are involved? And what is his timeline for a decision?

 

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

An IT poster said a Reddit poster who has been correct about a lot of things said we have Hall locked up. 

Both of these positions can be, and are (allegedly), true at the same time. Following this stuff with NIL going forward, what you're reading here is that Texas is trying to lock up what is necessary to get a player in. It's also been a part of the Mathis recruitment.

It's not like there's just a pile of corporate sponsorships sitting there waiting to attach to a transfer WR that made 4 catches last season. DLs aren't exactly a hot commodity for sponsorships either. As groups? Sure, and that's what we continue to pursue in earnest - setting floors for position groups across the roster. That will be the way for other schools too, and no one outside of a select set of skill position guys every offseason will be any different. 

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Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Speaking of this point. Oregon with Lanning and the guys he brought With him from A&M/UGA will be very interesting to see going forward. Do you feel the same?

I do, but I also stand by what I've argued the whole time about the relevance of the bag game moving forward. So is it going to play a role in this cycle? For sure in some ways, but not as much as the past.

What makes Oregon interesting is that they're organized and already funded. They really don't have to play any games to get a ton of talent and make it hard for others to keep up. Oregon's biggest obstacle is one that no other major player will ever have to face - climate and location.

I know a bunch of dorks will talk about how beautiful Eugene is and how cool it is, but those aren't big selling points for players who will inevitably also be long flights from friends and family and 2-3 hours in viewing time behind the other major programs. At least USC has Los Angeles.

Oklahoma, LSU, Bama, Auburn, Florida, ATM and the Mississippi schools are all in either shitholes or podunk shitholes, but they're in good time zones and mostly near bigger locales for travel. Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, Arkansas, Clemson, UNC, and UGA are all actually in pretty places or big cities or both. Spare me the whining about your singular opinion on any one of those places, as demographic data and/or business and leisure travel data tell the objective stories. 

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2 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

I do, but I also stand by what I've argued the whole time about the relevance of the bag game moving forward. So is it going to play a role in this cycle? For sure in some ways, but not as much as the past.

What makes Oregon interesting is that they're organized and already funded. They really don't have to play any games to get a ton of talent and make it hard for others to keep up. Oregon's biggest obstacle is one that no other major player will ever have to face - climate and location.

I know a bunch of dorks will talk about how beautiful Eugene is and how cool it is, but those aren't big selling points for players who will inevitably also be long flights from friends and family and 2-3 hours in viewing time behind the other major programs. At least USC has Los Angeles.

Oklahoma, LSU, Bama, Auburn, Florida, ATM and the Mississippi schools are all in either shitholes or podunk shitholes, but they're in good time zones and mostly near bigger locales for travel. Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, Arkansas, Clemson, UNC, and UGA are all actually in pretty places or big cities or both. Spare me the whining about your singular opinion on any one of those places, as demographic data and/or business and leisure travel data tell the objective stories. 

Tech has a couple of boosters motivated to land some elite talent, it'll be interesting to see if they're successful 

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36 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

 

Both of these positions can be, and are (allegedly), true at the same time. Following this stuff with NIL going forward, what you're reading here is that Texas is trying to lock up what is necessary to get a player in. It's also been a part of the Mathis recruitment.

It's not like there's just a pile of corporate sponsorships sitting there waiting to attach to a transfer WR that made 4 catches last season. DLs aren't exactly a hot commodity for sponsorships either. As groups? Sure, and that's what we continue to pursue in earnest - setting floors for position groups across the roster. That will be the way for other schools too, and no one outside of a select set of skill position guys every offseason will be any different. 

Having a set price sounds good, but when it is published and out in the open, it is a lot easier for schools to offer just a little bit more. Whether we want to stay above the fray or not, if we want to compete with Georgia and Alabama we are going to have to get dirty.

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6 minutes ago, Fud said:

Tech has a couple of boosters motivated to land some elite talent, it'll be interesting to see if they're successful 

Agreed. I just wasn't thinking of them as any kind of power, but yeah, they've got the Oregon problem only worse in that their part of the world is hard to fall in love with, aesthetically. 

I think Tech's NIL work will lead to more problems for everyone but Texas, OU and ATM in their territory, albeit I'm sure there will be occasional spillover for us to deal with too.

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5 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Having a set price sounds good, but when it is published and out in the open, it is a lot easier for schools to offer just a little bit more. Whether we want to stay above the fray or not, if we want to compete with Georgia and Alabama we are going to have to get dirty.

I get that you're a doctor and all, so you're probably very smart, but this post doesn't really reflect that.

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It will be interesting to see how the tax deal works out.  

Pretty sure a lot of these guys are going to be shocked when the tax man comes around. Then shocked again when they find out how much a good accountant is to take care of the tax problems.  

I agree that the Texas model will win out,  but like the moonshiners bags aren't going away.  

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16 minutes ago, Fud said:

Tech has a couple of boosters motivated to land some elite talent, it'll be interesting to see if they're successful 

It would be hilarious to see big Tech money jumping into aggy recruitments just to drive up prices. There are only so many insurance agents to go around in Houston. 

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9 minutes ago, Laga4 said:

but like the moonshiners bags aren't going away.

Those bags will become less significant...  but by how much, and by when, are the questions. Luckily the transfer portal can help balance that out a bit for now. 

But it is hard to ignore how the Houston Chronicle just pumped sunshine up everyone's asses on how aggy is leading the way in NIL, and how it has led to this crazy recruiting surge over the past two cycles. It's absolute bullshit, we all know it, but it shows you how deep this shit runs. 

"A bird in hand (bags) is worth two in the bush (NIL..kinda)" comes to mind.... except aggy is promising these kids all three.

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27 minutes ago, Laga4 said:

It will be interesting to see how the tax deal works out.  

Pretty sure a lot of these guys are going to be shocked when the tax man comes around. Then shocked again when they find out how much a good accountant is to take care of the tax problems.  

I agree that the Texas model will win out,  but like the moonshiners bags aren't going away.  

The bags are going to be reserved for weird shit. Never in the history of the bag game did a player receive millions of dollars. Not once. That's now already happened with NIL nearly 50 times in less than a year. 

These tropes you guys throw out about "well, an uncle is going to get paid!" or "they'll take less money to get it right now than delay gratification!" or "but the taxes!" all imply some premise of pure ignorance from the player/parent side of things. Every recruit that visits Texas now hears about what Texas helps players with regarding NIL and that includes financial planning and tax support. They're inundated with such matters at every other school visit too. In addition, parents are now coming away shocked in various instances about how much money was previously exchanging hands while they gained nothing for it, especially with the money now being talked about out in the open. 

There is a large faction of people on this board that continue to be certain that somehow everything will remain dirty even when there are numerous economic white papers and examples of what happens to markets when information on activities goes from opaque to transparent. I'll spare you the need to research or read it for yourself and give you the short version - the markets immediately become more efficient and the activities far less illicit. 

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Something I forgot to mention about the Brockermeyers. Folks some of us know at Bama have become decidedly more indifferent about the twins since this winter. They went from defending the notion that it was just part of the development for the players, plus injuries, to the idea that they're going to have to eventually show that they're nearly as good as everyone "told us they were", which is also a hilarious take. I know ol'Nick is just waiting to hear what players are rated before he and his crew start putting in the work.

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5 minutes ago, closetojumping said:

There is a large faction of people on this board that continue to be certain that somehow everything will remain dirty even when there are numerous economic white papers and examples of what happens to markets when information on activities goes from opaque to transparent. I'll spare you the need to research or read it for yourself and give you the short version - the markets immediately become more efficient and the activities far less illicit. 

There is a large faction of pussies on this board, that are just scared to death that the Fightin' Farmers are going to continue to be the Cheatin' Farmers, and that we're going to continue to lose all the recruits to them every cycle, because they're going to spend tons of bag money on kids that we just won't be able to. And that there's no way we keep up with it.

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1 hour ago, Laga4 said:

It will be interesting to see how the tax deal works out.  

Pretty sure a lot of these guys are going to be shocked when the tax man comes around. Then shocked again when they find out how much a good accountant is to take care of the tax problems.  

I agree that the Texas model will win out,  but like the moonshiners bags aren't going away.  

The schools provide just about everything else for these kids and you think they won’t provide tax help? This is a silly concern.

Nobody wants their star player arrested for tax evasion, it will be taken care of.

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1 hour ago, closetojumping said:

I get that you're a doctor and all, so you're probably very smart, but this post doesn't really reflect that.

Hey it's the recruiting board so being dumb I think is a prerequisite to posting. But I had the same discussion with Bert a long time ago. He thought that NIL would kill the gray market and I disagreed. Last cycle, it was pretty obvious that the gray market was alive and well (hi, aggies). Now, you are repeating the same thing that NIL will kill the gray market. I'm just not seeing it. The elite guys that A&M was signing last year were getting in the range of $500K. Georgia and Alabama say that they will do the same this year as the market has changed. NIL at Texas may get you $150K per year. So if Banks wants $250K per year, he can get $150K of Texas money free and clear without uncles, handlers, and tax avoidance issues. But, if Alabama can get him $100K in NIL plus $150K in under the table money, I think he will take the $250K with $50K going to uncles and handlers. The deal is going to be NIL plus incentives not NIL or incentives. Just my opinion. I'll definitely be right this cycle though as A&M, Georgia, and Alabama have bidding wars.

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3 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Hey it's the recruiting board so being dumb I think is a prerequisite to posting. But I had the same discussion with Bert a long time ago. He thought that NIL would kill the gray market and I disagreed. Last cycle, it was pretty obvious that the gray market was alive and well (hi, aggies). Now, you are repeating the same thing that NIL will kill the gray market. I'm just not seeing it. The elite guys that A&M was signing last year were getting in the range of $500K. Georgia and Alabama say that they will do the same this year as the market has changed. NIL at Texas may get you $150K per year. So if Banks wants $250K per year, he can get $150K of Texas money free and clear without uncles, handlers, and tax avoidance issues. But, if Alabama can get him $100K in NIL plus $150K in under the table money, I think he will take the $250K with $50K going to uncles and handlers. The deal is going to be NIL plus incentives not NIL or incentives. Just my opinion. I'll definitely be right this cycle though as A&M, Georgia, and Alabama have bidding wars.

Dark money in the form of signing bonuses since NIL can't technically be used as inducement to enroll seems the most likely scenario to me. 

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Supposedly, they're scrambling now to put a veneer of propriety to what occurred because the FOIA requests have flowed in. Historically, ATM simply says "fuck you" when they don't want to comply with FOIA requests and they've generally gotten away with it.

I've personally FOIA'd/PIA'd them for these current NIL contracts (didn't even ask for anything about 2022 recruiting) and been told I had to pay hundreds of dollars for them, only payable via cashier's check to be delivered via certified mail or in-person within 10 business days. Or in the case of my making requests for emails regarding their statue that was the focal point of many an aggy protest in 2020, they sent me 8 total pages of emails.

The same requests at UT have come back for free, and requests for emails about the Eyes came back with literally thousands of pages.

Texas compliance already has a rep for being frustrating, but aggy turns that shit up to 11-and-then-some.

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7 minutes ago, Bevo said:

Hey it's the recruiting board so being dumb I think is a prerequisite to posting. But I had the same discussion with Bert a long time ago. He thought that NIL would kill the gray market and I disagreed. Last cycle, it was pretty obvious that the gray market was alive and well (hi, aggies). Now, you are repeating the same thing that NIL will kill the gray market. I'm just not seeing it. The elite guys that A&M was signing last year were getting in the range of $500K. Georgia and Alabama say that they will do the same this year as the market has changed. NIL at Texas may get you $150K per year. So if Banks wants $250K per year, he can get $150K of Texas money free and clear without uncles, handlers, and tax avoidance issues. But, if Alabama can get him $100K in NIL plus $150K in under the table money, I think he will take the $250K with $50K going to uncles and handlers. The deal is going to be NIL plus incentives not NIL or incentives. Just my opinion. I'll definitely be right this cycle though as A&M, Georgia, and Alabama have bidding wars.

You never kill it, but also think of it this way. 

Some people will be out in front on NIL. Some people will be behind. Those people behind will likely fall back to old habits, until they have a NIL infrastructure. That should die down over time. You will also always have a few dip shits, that choose immediate illegal gain over legal money. 

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5 minutes ago, gordogg24p said:

I've personally FOIA'd/PIA'd them for these current NIL contracts (didn't even ask for anything about 2022 recruiting) and been told I had to pay hundreds of dollars for them, only payable via cashier's check to be delivered via certified mail or in-person within 10 business days. Or in the case of my making requests for emails regarding their statue that was the focal point of many an aggy protest in 2020, they sent me 8 total pages of emails.

The same requests at UT have come back for free, and requests for emails about the Eyes came back with literally thousands of pages.

Texas compliance already has a rep for being frustrating, but aggy turns that shit up to 11-and-then-some.

being very, very honest here but how many hundreds of dollars? we should crowd fund that shit TODAY

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8 minutes ago, NoName said:

being very, very honest here but how many hundreds of dollars? we should crowd fund that shit TODAY

About $400 for the most recent incident. @RGBIII and I had been in contact about it previously. I need to re-do the request because my initial deadline has long since passed.

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1 minute ago, gordogg24p said:

About $400 for the most recent incident. @RGBIII and I had been in contact about it previously. I need to re-do the request because my initial deadline has long since passed.

Dumb question because I’m clearly missing an obvious answer, but if NIL deals are not made by the school - they are a contract between the player and a third party business - why would they be subject to a FOIA request? Are you asking for any emails the compliance department at the school has on a particular deal?

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2 minutes ago, Duane Moore said:

Dumb question because I’m clearly missing an obvious answer, but if NIL deals are not made by the school - they are a contract between the player and a third party business - why would they be subject to a FOIA request? Are you asking for any emails the compliance department at the school has on a particular deal?

At least in the case of the Texas NIL deals I have been at least tangentially involved in, the contracts have to pass through university compliance before they can be formally accepted by the athlete just to make sure state laws are being followed.

I'm sure aggy has more than a few instances of this process not being followed.

Edited by gordogg24p
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6 minutes ago, gordogg24p said:

About $400 for the most recent incident. @RGBIII and I had been in contact about it previously. I need to re-do the request because my initial deadline has long since passed.

Found the email outlining it exactly.

Quote

Your request will be considered automatically withdrawn if you do not either: a) provide the required bond payment within ten business days from the date of this letter; or b) notify us in writing ten business days from the date of this letter that you:

1. wish to modify your request; OR

2. have sent to the Open Records Division of the Office of the Attorney General a complaint alleging that you are being overcharged for the information you have requested.

Please consider the options indicated above and advise this office of your decision as soon as possible.

Breakdown of responsive information:

  • Estimated number of responsive contracts with communications 80
  • 18 minute to compile and redact mandatory information = 1,440 min
  • Total 1,440 min = 24 hrs
  • 24 X $15.00 per hour = $360.00 Labor charge
  • $360.00 X 20% = $72 Overhead
  • Total = $432.00

 

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32 minutes ago, gordogg24p said:

I've personally FOIA'd/PIA'd them for these current NIL contracts (didn't even ask for anything about 2022 recruiting) and been told I had to pay hundreds of dollars for them, only payable via cashier's check to be delivered via certified mail or in-person within 10 business days. Or in the case of my making requests for emails regarding their statue that was the focal point of many an aggy protest in 2020, they sent me 8 total pages of emails.

The same requests at UT have come back for free, and requests for emails about the Eyes came back with literally thousands of pages.

Texas compliance already has a rep for being frustrating, but aggy turns that shit up to 11-and-then-some.

8 pages of emails on the statue LOL that’s hilarious. I bet if you put that on twitter you could get 100s of pages of emails just from the side wanting the statue taken down (the other side won’t volunteer that info) proving ATM is whitewashing their FOIA requests. 

I mean shit, that thing was nationally trending on Twitter and had in-person organized protests on both sides, and you’re telling me there’s 8 pages of emails??

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, Arkansas, Clemson, UNC, and UGA are all actually in pretty places or big cities or both.

Arky is the one I think might blow up quite a bit with this NIL stuff. SEC, football school and quite a few donors with very deep pockets.

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2 hours ago, closetojumping said:

I do, but I also stand by what I've argued the whole time about the relevance of the bag game moving forward. So is it going to play a role in this cycle? For sure in some ways, but not as much as the past.

What makes Oregon interesting is that they're organized and already funded. They really don't have to play any games to get a ton of talent and make it hard for others to keep up. Oregon's biggest obstacle is one that no other major player will ever have to face - climate and location.

I know a bunch of dorks will talk about how beautiful Eugene is and how cool it is, but those aren't big selling points for players who will inevitably also be long flights from friends and family and 2-3 hours in viewing time behind the other major programs. At least USC has Los Angeles.

Oklahoma, LSU, Bama, Auburn, Florida, ATM and the Mississippi schools are all in either shitholes or podunk shitholes, but they're in good time zones and mostly near bigger locales for travel. Texas, Ohio State, Michigan, Tennessee, Arkansas, Clemson, UNC, and UGA are all actually in pretty places or big cities or both. Spare me the whining about your singular opinion on any one of those places, as demographic data and/or business and leisure travel data tell the objective stories. 

I love the PNW but I suspect most kids from sunny states will find the weather off putting.  I'm sure their facilities show nice and they are Nike's school, so I can see them winning some battles.

 

LA is obviously great, but these kids live in a bubble.  Even Norman can be fun when you're the BMOC.

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1 hour ago, Vertigo said:

Dark money in the form of signing bonuses since NIL can't technically be used as inducement to enroll seems the most likely scenario to me. 

Also, dark money for all the smaller pre-signing stuff like $60K for official visits (2003 rate), airfare for unofficials, pre-paid Visa when you visit (do they still do this or am I just an old?), commitment, $$ if you don't visit school X, etc.

There could also be some one-offs after signing like the UL OL that said he wouldn't practice until he got $1500 for some random expense he had.

Seems to me the big difference is NIL replaces the old school post-signing payroll.

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50 minutes ago, MoJames said:

Arky is the one I think might blow up quite a bit with this NIL stuff. SEC, football school and quite a few donors with very deep pockets.

Agreed, their baseball facilities are fucking incredible. I think they are likely to benefit at the expense of the MS schools. 

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  • closetojumping changed the title to 2022 Transfer Thread - It's the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)

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