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The Urbanization of America Continues Unabated


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Those city population stats seem pretty meaningless.  Not very much dark green in NY, IL, and CA.  Lots of green in TX and FL.  Just because the growth isn't happening within the city limits proper doesn't mean that it isn't happening. 

Edited by DalTxHornFan
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Overlay that map with the 2020 election red vs blue map. 

There are two Americas. The rural older America versus the urban younger America. The way the population is diverging versus how the US government is elected insures that we'll have a divided America for another century.

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11 minutes ago, crash_davis said:

Overlay that map with the 2020 election red vs blue map. 

There are two Americas. The rural older America versus the urban younger America. The way the population is diverging versus how the US government is elected insures that we'll have a divided America for another century.

Yeah, didn't want to go CR in my initial post, but at some point you'll have a 60/40 GOP senate that only represents 35% of the population.

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It will be interested to see how this trend changes five years post-covid. People have been migrating from the countryside to urban areas since the dawn of time, but that trend might slow as remote working becomes more prominent. I know a few folks that have chosen to move out of large cities because they can given WFH capability. That definitely will not change the patterns but could change the rate.

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1 hour ago, Harrison Bergeron said:

It will be interested to see how this trend changes five years post-covid. People have been migrating from the countryside to urban areas since the dawn of time, but that trend might slow as remote working becomes more prominent. I know a few folks that have chosen to move out of large cities because they can given WFH capability. That definitely will not change the patterns but could change the rate.

Yeah, and some rural areas are getting really solid internet offerings (in part to attract those types).   

It'll be interesting to see how things look in 2030, because last year's census probably didn't capture the WFH stuff.

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5 hours ago, Harrison Bergeron said:

It will be interested to see how this trend changes five years post-covid. People have been migrating from the countryside to urban areas since the dawn of time, but that trend might slow as remote working becomes more prominent. I know a few folks that have chosen to move out of large cities because they can given WFH capability. That definitely will not change the patterns but could change the rate.

 

4 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, and some rural areas are getting really solid internet offerings (in part to attract those types).   

It'll be interesting to see how things look in 2030, because last year's census probably didn't capture the WFH stuff.

This. We're gonna see a new type of white flight where the upper middle class leave for the country/WFH and leave the middle class in the burbs.

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39 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


The other side of that coin is you can say the senate was deliberately created to create gridlock and make changing the status quo exceedingly difficult, or changing anything, for that matter.

I’d agree with you except the distortion of representation in the modern senate is so far beyond what could’ve been imagined at the time of the constitution, favors small states far more than the house makes up for, and really throws the balance out of wack to the point that it erodes the strength of democracy. The house should be expanded to counteract. It’s 2021, there’s no reason we need to cap the house at 435 reps, one per 800k or whatever the math works out to.

They had a big fight over whether or not to count slaves (who couldn't vote, obvisouly) as people because it would give the slave states an edge in representation in the house. I'm pretty sure they knew the ins and outs of the system they designed.

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4 hours ago, DalTxHornFan said:

You say that like it is a bad thing.  That's why the constitution provides for equal representation in the Senate for each sovereign state that joined the union of states, and a House of Representatives whose composition is based upon the relative population of each state.  It is genius and part of what makes our constitutional form of government exceptional.  The moose out front should have told you.

Exactly. We clearly need more civics taught. Without the Senate we get:
image.thumb.png.e3dbb433f9d57a208c204fa48aab73e2.png

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As we saw the "urban donut" arise in the last 25 years.  We are going to see a similar effect in the suburbs.  Affluent whites will push out farther from the formerly "nice" suburbs and bedroom communities, and leave more diversity but also decreasing tax bases.  Close-in suburbs could face a white flight.  So you'd have the urban donut expand outwards.  Would make for an interesting CRE conundrum.  

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4 hours ago, DalTxHornFan said:

You say that like it is a bad thing.  That's why the constitution provides for equal representation in the Senate for each sovereign state that joined the union of states, and a House of Representatives whose composition is based upon the relative population of each state.  It is genius and part of what makes our constitutional form of government exceptional.  The moose out front should have told you.

The system is built with some fundamental assumptions.  One is that the elected will be incentivized to promote the interests of those they represent.  

that has largely been replaced by two things: the nationalization of every issue such that there is no such thing as a local interest anymore and the politics of resentment when making others suffer is more important than your constituents succeed. 

 

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20 minutes ago, Lobo said:

As we saw the "urban donut" arise in the last 25 years.  We are going to see a similar effect in the suburbs.  Affluent whites will push out farther from the formerly "nice" suburbs and bedroom communities, and leave more diversity but also decreasing tax bases.  Close-in suburbs could face a white flight.  So you'd have the urban donut expand outwards.  Would make for an interesting CRE conundrum.  

Houston is fairly representative of not just American but world cities in that the close-in suburbs are already shit for the most part. The old town is gentrifying, the 1950s-1980s ring is rotting, and the outer ring is booming. If affluent whites were to push farther out than they are, that would bring not just Sealy but also Columbus and Hempstead and Brenham more into something like Houston proper, and that is ridiculous.

Yes, people have been saying "I remember when this was all just farms" for generations now but absent flying cars, I don't think it will be the rich who end up farther and farther out in bumfuck. It will be the poor and the middles. The rich will more take over the central cities, where there is more to do, and force the poor farther and farther out. Those wealthy enough in the outer ring will try to make it to the inner ring. Covid and other diseases are not selectively ravaging Manhattan-type areas the way we thought so i don't think it will create the great sprawl that once seemed logical about a year ago.

 

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For shits and giggles I decided to look at the counties that comprise both the Austin and San Antonio MSAs as they're currently configured, likely will add new counties when more data have been analyzed.

The five-county Austin MSA went from 1,716,289 in 2010 to 2,283,371 in 2020, a 33% increase through the addition of 576,082 souls.

The eight-county San Antonio MSA went from 2,142,508 in 2010 to 2,558,143 in 2020, a 19% increase through the addition of 415,635 souls.

Combined, San Austin added almost a million fucking people and stood at 4,841,514 in 2020. Today, I'm guessing the region has easily surpassed 5 million.

Edit: The Census has put together some basic interactive maps if y'all care to check out what's been released so far. You'll have to zoom in for the individual counties to display. As an aside, I'm kind of irked that they're showing my hometown as having lost population but that's only because there are about a 1,000 fewer prisoners than 2010.

Edited by bolverk
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1 hour ago, Doc Reeves said:

I remember taking a class on globalization that basically said this exact thing would happen. Wish I was smart enough to make money off that some how 

Apparently anybody can get elected to the Austin City Council.

https://library.austintexas.libguides.com/c.php?g=720259&p=5204371

 

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17 minutes ago, MaybeACoordinator said:

Houston is fairly representative of not just American but world cities in that the close-in suburbs are already shit for the most part. The old town is gentrifying, the 1950s-1980s ring is rotting, and the outer ring is booming. If affluent whites were to push farther out than they are, that would bring not just Sealy but also Columbus and Hempstead and Brenham more into something like Houston proper, and that is ridiculous.

Yes, people have been saying "I remember when this was all just farms" for generations now but absent flying cars, I don't think it will be the rich who end up farther and farther out in bumfuck. It will be the poor and the middles. The rich will more take over the central cities, where there is more to do, and force the poor farther and farther out. Those wealthy enough in the outer ring will try to make it to the inner ring. Covid and other diseases are not selectively ravaging Manhattan-type areas the way we thought so i don't think it will create the great sprawl that once seemed logical about a year ago.

That's what's seems to be happening in Dallas. North Dallas and the immediate suburbs, which were the place to be in the 70s and 80s and began to decline in the 90s and 00s have been gentrifying with upper middle class re-doing homes. Cities like Richardson, Carrollton-Farmers Branch, Irving have made dramatic revitalizations in the last 10 years.

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46 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

The system is built with some fundamental assumptions.  One is that the elected will be incentivized to promote the interests of those they represent.  

that has largely been replaced by two things: the nationalization of every issue such that there is no such thing as a local interest anymore and the politics of resentment when making others suffer is more important than your constituents succeed. 

 

Nothing is perfect.  I am quite certain that the founding fathers had no idea that we would have a career politician ruling class that dominated both houses of congress.  Term limits -- two terms in the Senate and four terms in the House, plus a four year cooling off period before you could register as a lobbyist would go a long way towards returning to a citizen-focused Congress.  A guy can dream...

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55 minutes ago, OneOfTheOutOfFocusGuys said:

The system is built with some fundamental assumptions.  One is that the elected will be incentivized to promote the interests of those they represent.  

that has largely been replaced by two things: the nationalization of every issue such that there is no such thing as a local interest anymore and the politics of resentment when making others suffer is more important than your constituents succeed.

I don't disagree, but that's a much different issue. The motives of those elected is one thing, but the system was designed in very particular, particularly ingenious way.

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Just now, workswithseed said:

People are moving there, why do you think that is?

The same reasons they've been moving there for the last 50 years.  The weather and the early-bird dinner specials.  If you think people move to Florida for the state politics, you're out of your fucking mind.  Florida has been just as blue for the last 50 years as it has been red.  I do think people flee California and New York and Illinois for Texas because of the politics/business climate, but nobody moves to Florida for that reason.  65 year olds don't move to Florida to start businesses, they move there because it makes their bones stop hurting and you can live among other cranky people in an HOA.

You seriously think Florida attracts new residents with tales of their badass state government?  

50 years of purple politics and a mixed bag of business results.  The only constant in Florida is that most of the people there are fucking insane.  

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2 minutes ago, Lobo said:

The same reasons they've been moving there for the last 50 years.  The weather and the early-bird dinner specials.  If you think people move to Florida for the state politics, you're out of your fucking mind.  Florida has been just as blue for the last 50 years as it has been red.  I do think people flee California and New York and Illinois for Texas because of the politics/business climate, but nobody moves to Florida for that reason.  65 year olds don't move to Florida to start businesses, they move there because it makes their bones stop hurting and you can live among other cranky people in an HOA.

You seriously think Florida attracts new residents with tales of their badass state government?  

50 years of purple politics and a mixed bag of business results.  The only constant in Florida is that most of the people there are fucking insane.  

Case in point

The Villages, a retirement community in Florida, was the fastest-growing metro area over the last decade.

By Audra D. S. Burch
Aug. 12, 2021
Updated 3:36 p.m. ET

MIAMI — Amid a slowing of overall population growth in the United States, a Florida retirement community continued its rise to top of the population charts: The Villages, a sprawling master planned community in Central Florida, was the fastest-growing metropolitan area over the last decade, according to census data released Thursday.

About a 45-minute drive from Orlando, the area’s population jumped 39 percent since 2010 — from about 93,000 residents to about 130,000. The growth was fueled in large part by a steady stream of retirees lured by Florida’s year-round balmy weather and endless golfing. The community has made the fastest-growing list over several decades.

Built in the 1960s as a collection of tracts that could be purchased by mail order, The Villages skyrocketed in popularity in the 1980s and 1990s as it expanded to include large-scale restaurants, shopping and other leisure activities, becoming a charming self-contained home for seniors beginning their next chapter.

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5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Case in point

The Villages, a retirement community in Florida, was the fastest-growing metro area over the last decade.

By Audra D. S. Burch
Aug. 12, 2021
Updated 3:36 p.m. ET

MIAMI — Amid a slowing of overall population growth in the United States, a Florida retirement community continued its rise to top of the population charts: The Villages, a sprawling master planned community in Central Florida, was the fastest-growing metropolitan area over the last decade, according to census data released Thursday.

About a 45-minute drive from Orlando, the area’s population jumped 39 percent since 2010 — from about 93,000 residents to about 130,000. The growth was fueled in large part by a steady stream of retirees lured by Florida’s year-round balmy weather and endless golfing. The community has made the fastest-growing list over several decades.

Built in the 1960s as a collection of tracts that could be purchased by mail order, The Villages skyrocketed in popularity in the 1980s and 1990s as it expanded to include large-scale restaurants, shopping and other leisure activities, becoming a charming self-contained home for seniors beginning their next chapter.

This is Frank Costanza. You think you can keep us out of Florida?

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10 minutes ago, Lobo said:

The same reasons they've been moving there for the last 50 years.  The weather and the early-bird dinner specials.  If you think people move to Florida for the state politics, you're out of your fucking mind.  Florida has been just as blue for the last 50 years as it has been red.  I do think people flee California and New York and Illinois for Texas because of the politics/business climate, but nobody moves to Florida for that reason.  65 year olds don't move to Florida to start businesses, they move there because it makes their bones stop hurting and you can live among other cranky people in an HOA.

You seriously think Florida attracts new residents with tales of their badass state government?  

50 years of purple politics and a mixed bag of business results.  The only constant in Florida is that most of the people there are fucking insane.  

DeSantis: People Coming To FL ‘Overwhelmingly’ Registering As Republicans; Democrats Switching To GOP

https://www.dailywire.com/news/desantis-people-coming-to-fl-overwhelmingly-registering-as-republicans-democrats-switching-to-gop

Those old people want to keep their money it seems. 

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Switching parties once you become a resident of a new state isn't the same as moving to a state because you like its local politics.  Your question was "Why do you think that is?" in relation to why people are moving to Florida.  People have been moving there for a long time.  It stands to reason, as you say, that as their nest-egg becomes more crucial---they become attracted to lower-tax states.  But that's never been the primary driver for people to move to Florida.  If low tax environments were all that mattered, they would be moving to New Hampshire and Wyoming, not Florida.  Which not only have no state income tax like Florida and Texas, but they also waive most compulsory fees for 65+ folks like car registrations give massive breaks on property taxes.  

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37 minutes ago, Lobo said:

Switching parties once you become a resident of a new state isn't the same as moving to a state because you like its local politics.  Your question was "Why do you think that is?" in relation to why people are moving to Florida.  People have been moving there for a long time.  It stands to reason, as you say, that as their nest-egg becomes more crucial---they become attracted to lower-tax states.  But that's never been the primary driver for people to move to Florida.  If low tax environments were all that mattered, they would be moving to New Hampshire and Wyoming, not Florida.  Which not only have no state income tax like Florida and Texas, but they also waive most compulsory fees for 65+ folks like car registrations give massive breaks on property taxes.  

I will say, if I had the choice, it would be New Hampshire if I had to live over in New England. Just seems like a por que no los dos.

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1 hour ago, Lobo said:

Switching parties once you become a resident of a new state isn't the same as moving to a state because you like its local politics.  Your question was "Why do you think that is?" in relation to why people are moving to Florida.  People have been moving there for a long time.  It stands to reason, as you say, that as their nest-egg becomes more crucial---they become attracted to lower-tax states.  But that's never been the primary driver for people to move to Florida.  If low tax environments were all that mattered, they would be moving to New Hampshire and Wyoming, not Florida.  Which not only have no state income tax like Florida and Texas, but they also waive most compulsory fees for 65+ folks like car registrations give massive breaks on property taxes.  

Actually, local politics might be a thing (might not, I dunno). I'm sure there are plenty of middle of the road folks who would vote in whichever party is dominant in any place they move to. It really just makes sense if you are a moderate because local politics usually have a greater impact than national politics. Whether or not a state has an open or closed primary system proba ly makes a difference as well. 

I hope that's not too political, but for the most part this thread has done OK talking about the theory behind politics without getting overly political. 

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Yeah, once you move somewhere...it certainly makes sense to start voting in that town's predominant party's primaries.  My point was I don't think the massive influx of people into Florida since the 1960's has been based on people being attracted to their politics.  Florida has oscillated between red and blue and continues to be an interesting microcosm of the nation's ethnic/racial evolutions.  My other point is that yes, when people arrive there, they often engage politically from the HOA level (Phase II President, Morty Seinfeld) to the Governor level.  Once they are there.  But I've never seen evidence of tens of thousands of folks moving each year based on their magnetic attraction to Florida state politics.  We all adapt when we move to states, I get it.  But people are moving to Florida for very different reasons than they are moving to Texas.  

And we're not getting political here.  The undertone of the census story is that some areas are growing and some are dwindling.  But you can't talk about the census and not talk about movement to certain areas for certain reasons.  In summary, when you move anywhere from Alaska to Florida to Maine to Waikiki...you will start to behave a bit different politically.  But that's an after-effect.  You go to that place originally, for very different reasons altogether.  the majority of folks moving to Florida could give fuck one about their small business regulatory environment.  

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Not having a state tax and high taxes seems like a local/state political reason why a lot of folks are moving to Florida @Lobo. Heck, me and the fam seriously considered a move to the Tampa area a few years ago for a great opportunity and the reason it was short-listed over a few different cities (MSP, SJ/SF, LA, and DC/DTC) was because the take-home and disposable income power-up that FL provides versus other states not named Texas.

Edited by DonkeyCigars
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From an ecological perspective, urbanization is probably a good thing. Land fragmentation is one of the biggest threats to the environment we face today, but it gets lost in the shuffle. A three hundred acre tract of land two generations ago is now ten 30 acre tracts, and that's assuming none of the descendants subdivide their share for development. Maintaining sound conservationalist policies when the number of owners of a former tract have increased a whole order of magnitude is multiple orders of magnitude more difficult than it was previously. And in another generation or two, all those 30 acre plots will just be large lots that are unmanageable from an ecological perspective.

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16 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Why the fuck would anyone move to Florida?

It bottles the mind.  I think if I was gonna live in Fla. though it would be the upper western panhandle.  Just seems like a prettier, slower pace location that might actually get some seasonal differences.

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I lived there for two years.  I have lots of family there.  I have never understood the nation's fascination with Florida.  It's a fucking shithole filled with nothing but assholes.  You think I'd have fit right in, no?  

To be fair to Florida, five things:

1.  As stated, their coastal areas from Santa Rosa Island/Fort Walton Beach/Destin area to Saint Joseph Bay is quite nice.  People are mostly transplants from normal places.

2.  The Keys are still beautiful to me.  Just a pain in the ass to get to.  And again, filled with Floridians for the most part.  

3.  I still like the area around Naples.  Quieter and not as assholish.  

4.  If you had to live in a Florida city.  Somebody was making you.  Tampa-Saint Petersburg isn't as godawful as you might think.  But it's pretty bad.  

5.  Florida's state flag.  Nobody bothers to notice it's a giant RED X which just screams to me, "Stay the Fuck Away!!!"  They really are trying to warn you that what's inside sucks ass.  But nobody fucking listens.  Everybody goes there with big smiles, "Oh Disney World, South Beach, Margaritaville...this'll be awesome!"  Everybody leaves with the same thought, "Why in the fuck did we go there?" 

It will surpass 25mm by 2030.  And 30mm by 2040.  Florida's GDP is roughly 1.1 trillion.  Texas' is almost 2.0 trillion.  Florida is already nearly 3/4 the population of Texas yet only maintains an economy of just over half of Texas'.  This confirms our greatest fear...people aren't moving to states for economic prosperity and to protect their checkbook, they're moving to be around other stupid people.  Florida is just a giant fort for people who cannot take responsibility for their own thinking.  

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1 hour ago, Nivek said:

Why is Farmington NM attracting people?

I looked into Farmington as a retirement spot, and it's apparently a huge shithole.  Some of the worst air quality in the country, which really seems like it should be impossible in NM...

Edited by Beau Vine
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3 minutes ago, Beau Vine said:

I looked into Farmington as a retirement spot, and it's apparently a huge shithole.  Some of the worst air quality in the country, which really seems like it should be impossible in NM...

Farmington, NM is neighbors with Durango, Colorado and is the commercial hub for the "Four Corners" region. The fishing is incredible. 

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18 hours ago, DalTxHornFan said:

You say that like it is a bad thing.  That's why the constitution provides for equal representation in the Senate for each sovereign state that joined the union of states, and a House of Representatives whose composition is based upon the relative population of each state.  It is genius and part of what makes our constitutional form of government exceptional.  The moose out front should have told you.

I do say it like it's a bad thing in the sense that I don't think it's a good thing if the Senate were to become increasingly anti-majoritarian. Or as GMR said more eloquently:

Quote

I’d agree with you except the distortion of representation in the modern senate is so far beyond what could’ve been imagined at the time of the constitution, favors small states far more than the house makes up for, and really throws the balance out of whack to the point that it erodes the strength of democracy. The house should be expanded to counteract. It’s 2021, there’s no reason we need to cap the house at 435 reps, one per 800k or whatever the math works out to.

 

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1 hour ago, Beau Vine said:

I looked into Farmington as a retirement spot, and it's apparently a huge shithole.  Some of the worst air quality in the country, which really seems like it should be impossible in NM...

because of fires?

Heard this past week that Denver metro temporarily had worst air quality in the WORLD(!)  but it is from the wildfire smoke blowing in.  It was on the radio, and could be total BS.   It did raise an eyebrow, for sure.

Edited by slorch
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