Family Financial Dilemma

[Guest]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

The difference is more than $100k.  Another data point, every property listed with a price on our forester's site would value out higher than the high appraisal, so it seems the high one isn't barking at the moon.

I have reread the thread with a cousin of mine in mind, with whom I am very close, in fact we are more like brothers. If we did not agree on the high appraisal that he paid for, while also recognizing that the forester has tended to be under the current market with his ' high valuation,"  yeah, we're either agreeing to split the cost of a third appraisal and triangulate the value there or as others have said, I'm coming up with a number that I feel is right for me, not them.  That isn't to say I'm going scorched earth at all and trying to fuck them over, but I owe it to myself to not just openly surrender what was meant for me in the inheritance.  It isn't being greedy.  It's being equitable.

[Chewbacca 7612]

48 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Another data point, for whatever its worth.  The property was appraised in 2005 at my mother's death for estate purposes.  As I kind of suspected, it has roughly doubled in value in that time, while also spinning off about 3-5% annual income, probably closer to 3%, particularly lately.

So, at the numbers we're talking, I should be able to replace the income easily with conservative investment, the growth, too, I think.  The higher the number, the more likely that is to be true.

You're going to have to pay taxes on the gain.  That should maybe come into play as well.

[TwiceHorn 30716]

1 minute ago, Chewbacca said:

You're going to have to pay taxes on the gain.  That should maybe come into play as well.

Yep.  Already baked in.

[NeverMarryAStripper 21765]

If they don't buy it at the higher appraisal sell your interest to one of those environmental groups that likes to spike trees.

[BearSchlong 7966]

One thing I've come to love about TwiceHorn in the decade or so that we've been internet buddies is his analytical approach to just about everything.

I agree with what Slorch said in #51.

How much do these appraisals cost?

I'd rather regret standing my ground and getting as high a number as possible then possibly having a resentment about taking too little.  If you suspect your cousin is trying to skin you a little, he probably is, but he's just being shrewd.

Edited September 22, 2021 by BearSchlong

[Brew 2917]

7 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Good point.  It was kind of funny/sad.  He brought up the new appraisal and then the older one and was kind of stuttering around.  It was awkward as fuck.

Sidenote:  this is my actual cousin's husband, so only related by marriage.  But he's a super-good dude and has been a good friend/cousin for like 40 years.  The "girls," my actual cousins, are not "facially" involved in this and one of them who lives in Monroe with her retired airline pilot husband, is even less involved than the one in Arkansas, whose husband I am dealing with.  Ironically, both "the girls" have MBAs, while James is a plumbing contractor.

So even if James and I got fucking ugly about it, calmer forces would prevail over time.  We're not going to get fucking ugly about it.

I think we'll get past it regardless, but I'd like to minimize the awkwardness if possible.

I don’t know that I have seen many family deals not end up awkward. It is what it is, you have to be comfortable with the deal. Slorch’s post covers it well.

[ROFL BOX 6620]

13 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Pretty sure they have complete fuck you money, so I don't need to feel bad about anything, really.

Those can be the worst sorts of people because to them, it's just motivation / impetus / moving chits around on the game board / proving a point whereas to others, it's food on the table or a mortgage payment.  Not saying this is the type of imbalance working here, but even if you're a Mercedes leasing guy, the other side can be a "2 seasonal houses & a private plane" guy.

Also:  Don't sell.  Land is the one thing they ain't making more of (occasional mid-Pacific volcanoes notwithstanding).  That $$ will always be there & maybe even one day, without any heirs, you could donate it to the Nature Conservancy or some-such.  My Mom has something like 1/16th in an oil property somewhere around Pelican, Lousy-Anna & if it splits between me & my brother, based on today's income we'll each get around $ 50 per month.  I'd like to buy out my Uncle, but I doubt he'd sell & like me, wants to have it just for shits & giggles.

[TwiceHorn 30716]

16 hours ago, BearSchlong said:

One thing I've come to love about TwiceHorn in the decade or so that we've been internet buddies is his analytical approach to just about everything.

I agree with what Slorch said in #51.

How much do these appraisals cost?

I'd rather regret standing my ground and getting as high a number as possible then possibly having a resentment about taking too little.  If you suspect your cousin is trying to skin you a little, he probably is, but he's just being shrewd.

About seven grand.  So it does start to eat into things a bit.

And I guess the thing that's maybe a little troublesome is that we all know that appraisals are works of fiction.  They get in the general ballpark, but they can be off.  So, doing an another appraisal and agreeing to be stuck with it is just kind of arbitrary.  Fair, but arbitrary.

Imma's suggestion of listing is good for finding FMV, but I think would be costly and time consuming.

Treating it as pure business is good advice and is bucking me up.  Which is exactly why I posted this.

Edited September 23, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[TwiceHorn 30716]

4 hours ago, ROFL BOX said:

Those can be the worst sorts of people because to them, it's just motivation / impetus / moving chits around on the game board / proving a point whereas to others, it's food on the table or a mortgage payment.  Not saying this is the type of imbalance working here, but even if you're a Mercedes leasing guy, the other side can be a "2 seasonal houses & a private plane" guy.

Also:  Don't sell.  Land is the one thing they ain't making more of (occasional mid-Pacific volcanoes notwithstanding).  That $$ will always be there & maybe even one day, without any heirs, you could donate it to the Nature Conservancy or some-such.  My Mom has something like 1/16th in an oil property somewhere around Pelican, Lousy-Anna & if it splits between me & my brother, based on today's income we'll each get around $ 50 per month.  I'd like to buy out my Uncle, but I doubt he'd sell & like me, wants to have it just for shits & giggles.

Don't get me wrong.  They don't ACT like they have fuck you money.  None of them ever have.  It's just a source of security and a source from which they can donate, which the family has done generously, to various causes.  

They do have four children and the attendant grandchildren that they are looking out for, as well.

My grandfather could squeeze a penny until it screamed, and my mother and her brother inherited/learned that tendency.  I picked up a good bit of it myself.  So they are "millionaire next door types."

They are all outdoorsmen and good stewards of the land, like most of those types are.  My recently passed uncle-in-law was a long-time member of the Sierra Club and an avid canoeist.  But at the same time, they and other timber owners get gouged and reamed by the unintended consequences of EPA regs and the like.  We've always followed best timber management practices that are conservation oriented rather than short-term profit oriented.

Because I don't do anything but collect timber checks, I feel like they make better and higher use of the land and have no desire to divvy up the ownership in some awkward way through inheritance or donation.  And, I think I can probably do better return-wise with the money.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4956]

Was the land appraised based on its expected value for timber production, or was it appraised based on its value as real estate for current market conditions? If the former, there is a very specific way they should be going about it, but it basically means they take the entire rotation length, input all the expected costs (planting, herbicide, etc), and then all the expected returns (first and second thinnings, final harvest, etc), add in expected inflation, possibly factor in alternative rates of return, and then extend that value for a single rotation into perpetuity. Both management plan (managing for poles versus lumber, etc) and site quality can have a big effect on this number. You can easily pull up soil maps (https://websoilsurvey.nrcs.usda.gov) and look at the site indices for both properties and see if they are at all similar. The fifty year site index they use is basically how tall an average tree of a given species is expected to grow in fifty years. This is dependent on soil quality and not planting density or anything like that, so it should be an apples to apples comparison in that regard. A tract with an average site index of 60 feet will have a drastically different value than one with a site index of 90 feet. Factoring what type of timber product it is being managed for is a little harder to make a fair comparison.

[TwiceHorn 30716]

15 minutes ago, NotActuallyALonghorn said:

Was the land appraised based on its expected value for timber production, or was it appraised based on its value as real estate for current market conditions? If the former, there is a very specific way they should be going about it, but it basically means they take the entire rotation length, input all the expected costs (planting, herbicide, etc), and then all the expected returns (first and second thinnings, final harvest, etc), add in expected inflation, possibly factor in alternative rates of return, and then extend that value for a single rotation into perpetuity. Both management plan (managing for poles versus lumber, etc) and site quality can have a big effect on this number. You can easily pull up soil maps (https://websoilsurvey.nrcs.usda.gov) and look at the site indices for both properties and see if they are at all similar. The fifty year site index they use is basically how tall an average tree of a given species is expected to grow in fifty years. This is dependent on soil quality and not planting density or anything like that, so it should be an apples to apples comparison in that regard. A tract with an average site index of 60 feet will have a drastically different value than one with a site index of 90 feet. Factoring what type of timber product it is being managed for is a little harder to make a fair comparison.

I am getting copies of the appraisals, so I will presumably see that kind of information.

These appraisals I am certain are timber property appraisals.

[ChickenSandwich 9750]

21 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Not my appraisal, another one..

And, I am specifically not wearing my lawyer hat for this.

Cmon.  Some of these responses are dumber than you're trying to make me out.

To be clear..the buyer is disagreeing with the most recent appraisal he paid to have done on the land in question?  He feels this value is wrong (too high - should have trashed it) and he would rather use a year old appraisal on a different property to set the sale price?

If correct the price starts at his appraisal and whatever discount you feel like giving. End of story. 
 

But maybe I’m misreading this novella?

Edited September 23, 2021 by ChickenSandwich

[Redneck Mutha 7832]

I had:

1. Sternly worded letter;
2. Put the system on trial; and
3. Pics of timber baron's wife

on my bingo card and didn't see any of them.  And for that reason...  I'm out.

[TwiceHorn 30716]

5 hours ago, ChickenSandwich said:

To be clear..the buyer is disagreeing with the most recent appraisal he paid to have done on the land in question?  He feels this value is wrong (too high - should have trashed it) and he would rather use a year old appraisal on a different property to set the sale price?

 

Seller.  He didn't say that he would rather use either one.  He just raised the issue of the prior appraisal to question the current, higher one.

[Jkwellborn 6536]

Why can’t you keep it and host annual Surly hunting and camping trips?

[Updawg 2239]

I had:

1. Sternly worded letter;
2. Put the system on trial; and
3. Pics of timber baron's wife

on my bingo card and didn't see any of them.  And for that reason...  I'm out.

What about hard wood

[davidg 4015]

4 hours ago, Jkwellborn said:

Why can’t you keep it and host annual Surly hunting and camping trips?

Not enough money in the wreath fund to cover liability insurance.

[Clintonaldo 2303]

It’s probably just as awkward for your cousin in a way and it doesn’t really sound like he is trying to fuck you but maybe just a little ignorant on the value. I propose a face to face conversation where you just be straight up with him and even say it’s a little weird dealing with family and you are just trying to make sure both sides win. I bet y’all ain’t as far off on the value as you think. 

[Godzillatron 292]

I think you are way overthinking this. Are you surprised that the appraisal today is significantly higher than a year ago when building materials are up by 2x and not coming down anytime soon? You talked about this a while back, but you are selling now. Current value is what it is - if they hadn’t jumped the gun you’d have agreed to follow the appraisal. So, follow the appraisal.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[TwiceHorn 30716]

19 minutes ago, Godzillatron said:

I think you are way overthinking this. Are you surprised that the appraisal today is significantly higher than a year ago when building materials are up by 2x and not coming down anytime soon? You talked about this a while back, but you are selling now. Current value is what it is - if they hadn’t jumped the gun you’d have agreed to follow the appraisal. So, follow the appraisal.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

There are a ton of reasons the one appraisal may be lower than the other, the primary one being that it's different land.

I'm not surprised by it, I don't know the explanation, but current timber prices are probably a good explanation, among others.  Also, timber prices aren't really following the costs of building materials.  It's pretty flat, bumped up slightly,

[DalTxHornFan 3066]

9 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Also, timber prices aren't really following the costs of building materials.  It's pretty flat, bumped up slightly,

No kidding, there.  The timber producers aren't seeing anything remotely equivalent to the bump in lumber retail prices (which have come down lately) -- our family forester attributes the price rise largely to distribution/supply chain issues.  He's shown us lots of pics of sawmills in East Texas and Louisiana with gobs of finished lumber on hand that is waiting for rail or truck transport.

[NotActuallyALonghorn 4956]

Lots of mills were telling loggers they could only bring a couple of truckloads per day back when the lumber prices were sky high earlier in the year.

[Jkwellborn 6536]

Lots of mills were telling loggers they could only bring a couple of truckloads per day back when the lumber prices were sky high earlier in the year.

Mills were artificiality keeping the damn price high.

[Jerry Callo 8626]

1 hour ago, Jkwellborn said:

Mills were artificiality keeping the damn price high.

Was that the reason or were there distribution issues that caused mills to limit intake because of limited outflow?

 

[Chewbacca 7612]

2 hours ago, Jerry Callo said:

Was that the reason or were there distribution issues that caused mills to limit intake because of limited outflow?

 

There was a pandemic, you see.  I'm sure there were distribution issues, I'm sure mills had to shut down and/or run at reduced capacity, etc.  

[Atxracer 797]

On 9/22/2021 at 11:43 AM, Chewbacca said:

Yep. Nobody says you have to sell. If he offers you a number you like, do it. If not, don't.

This. Why would you negotiate against yourself when you are not the one requesting the sale.  Show them the two appraisals (that they should have paid for), tell them to make an offer, if you like it, take it. If you don't, don't.  You are in the driver's seat here and with a law degree from UT, you should be able to handle that diplomatically to where if the deal goes through or not, everyone should still remain family.  

Edited September 28, 2021 by Atxracer

[gmr548 16254]

On 9/22/2021 at 12:17 PM, TwiceHorn said:

That side of the family are large benefactors to pig

Do not sell.

[Jerry Callo 8626]

Buy them out of their other holdings and become an Arkansas lumber magnate. 

[TwiceHorn 30716]

Coming back to this.  I got the appraisals.  Well, the full appraisal of our property and a summary of the appraised tract values from my uncle-in-law's estate that cousin was using to question the current appraisal.

So, to check the "accuracy" of the current appraisal, I did a couple of things.  First, our forester has property listings on his website.  Every timber property in the relevant county is selling for more than the current appraisal's per acre price.  Not all of that property is comparable, some is.

Second, and possibly more importantly, uncle-in-law owned a tract very close (one section diagonally away, so about 1.5 miles), that appraised substantially higher than the current appraisal.  All of the rest of his property is at least one township away.

So, I am very comfortable relying on the current survey.  Using that, I can round down just a little bit and get a number that I am totally comfortable with.  A nice round number.

Now, the question becomes, should I "offer" something higher in anticipation of a lower counter-offer?  Or try to say it just doesn't make financial sense at a lower number?

[Sbbruin 21568]

On 9/21/2021 at 5:19 PM, slorch said:

get a third appraisal.

agree to the approach beforehand.  Nobody should be expected just to roll with what one guy says.

 

Yep.  When we do “fair market value” determinations in commercial leases renewals, each side gets a broker opinion of rate, if they are equal, done.  If they are not, a third broker is engaged to determine which original quote is closest to market, and that is the number. Often referred to as “baseball arbitration “.

[Chewbacca 7612]

Coming back to this.  I got the appraisals.  Well, the full appraisal of our property and a summary of the appraised tract values from my uncle-in-law's estate that cousin was using to question the current appraisal.
So, to check the "accuracy" of the current appraisal, I did a couple of things.  First, our forester has property listings on his website.  Every timber property in the relevant county is selling for more than the current appraisal's per acre price.  Not all of that property is comparable, some is.
Second, and possibly more importantly, uncle-in-law owned a tract very close (one section diagonally away, so about 1.5 miles), that appraised substantially higher than the current appraisal.  All of the rest of his property is at least one township away.
So, I am very comfortable relying on the current survey.  Using that, I can round down just a little bit and get a number that I am totally comfortable with.  A nice round number.
Now, the question becomes, should I "offer" something higher in anticipation of a lower counter-offer?  Or try to say it just doesn't make financial sense at a lower number?

Your answer should be a no hard feelings, take it or leave it number. You don't have to sell. There is no reason to negotiate.

[Celery Man 20535]

this genre of thread is more entertaining when it's started by a poster who is dumber and less stable than 2horn. i read this entire thread weeks ago and I was still hoping for "my wife is sitting on $4000 in paparazzi inventory does it make financial sense to build a she-shed" content when I clicked on the title

[DonkeyCigars 144]

4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Coming back to this.  I got the appraisals.  Well, the full appraisal of our property and a summary of the appraised tract values from my uncle-in-law's estate that cousin was using to question the current appraisal.

So, to check the "accuracy" of the current appraisal, I did a couple of things.  First, our forester has property listings on his website.  Every timber property in the relevant county is selling for more than the current appraisal's per acre price.  Not all of that property is comparable, some is.

Second, and possibly more importantly, uncle-in-law owned a tract very close (one section diagonally away, so about 1.5 miles), that appraised substantially higher than the current appraisal.  All of the rest of his property is at least one township away.

So, I am very comfortable relying on the current survey.  Using that, I can round down just a little bit and get a number that I am totally comfortable with.  A nice round number.

Now, the question becomes, should I "offer" something higher in anticipation of a lower counter-offer?  Or try to say it just doesn't make financial sense at a lower number?

I would think it's poor form to treat family like a commercial deal with strangers and haggle and bake-in points you can give to get. Just say, I've thought about it and while not completely in love with the idea of selling, $XYZ is my number, best and final, and that is with some familial consideration because I love you/the family. Then add-in a pressure valve statement of like, "no pressure or obligation to you if that doesn't work for you, we can continue as is and no hard feelings-- I totally get it if you think that's a bridge too far."

Edited October 8, 2021 by DonkeyCigars

[horn4life 3748]

The land is more valuable to them than you.  As it consolidates more acreage (especially if adjoining?)

It's stupid for EITHER OF YOU to leave $100K on the table.  FMV can truly only be established if the property is placed upon the market.  

You family doesn't want to compete on the open market, and you don't want to "get skinned."  AND you are willing to try and play nice and keep it in the family.  The fact of the matter is the land is a LOT more valuable to them than you, simply because they use it.  If it's adjoining then it adds value to all the rest of their acreage that is contiguous.  So the reality is the land is more valuable to them then probably the FMV.  But you are not trying to "skin them" either.

DO YOUR OWN APPRAISAL!  This will be the most recent and hopefully the most accurate.  It's most likely to be higher than even the new higher appraisal your cousin was sheepish about.  The odds are you will be asked to sell to them below market. Do you want to?  There are transactional costs, and there is no guarantee the land will sell instantly if placed upon the market.

IDEALLY your appraisal will come in pretty close to your Cousin's appraisal and then you can indeed "split the difference" and come to a fair price.  Again it is important to remember that they actually use the land, so it's more valuable to them.  It also appears as if the land is only going upward in value.Would you be pissed if you sold it below value and they turned around and made a killing selling it a couple years from now?   In the end, IF you want to get true FMV by putting the property on the market you could always giver them an option to buy at a predetermined price already negotiated. But you may find your RE agent isn't as excited to list the property.

They probably don't want to sell because of the value the land currently has to your cousins, via their use of it.  For you it's just a cashflow vehicle. Ultimately if they want the land THEY need to come up with an offer number. Then you refuse or accept.  Get the newest appraisal and go from there.  

[TwiceHorn 30716]

20 minutes ago, DonkeyCigars said:

I would think it's poor form to treat family like a commercial deal with strangers and haggle and bake-in points you can give to get. Just say, I've thought about it and while not completely in love with the idea of selling, $XYZ is my number, best and final, and that is with some familial consideration because I love you/the family. Then add-in a pressure valve statement of like, "no pressure or obligation to you if that doesn't work for you, we can continue as is and no hard feelings-- I totally get it if you think that's a bridge too far."

I mean, I think the "treat it as a business transaction" is good advice.  On the other hand, particularly representing others, I might be kind of a dick on such negotiations.   So, I'm trying to be business-like without being a dick.

[TwiceHorn 30716]

31 minutes ago, horn4life said:

The land is more valuable to them than you.  As it consolidates more acreage (especially if adjoining?)

It's stupid for EITHER OF YOU to leave $100K on the table.  FMV can truly only be established if the property is placed upon the market.  

You family doesn't want to compete on the open market, and you don't want to "get skinned."  AND you are willing to try and play nice and keep it in the family.  The fact of the matter is the land is a LOT more valuable to them than you, simply because they use it.  If it's adjoining then it adds value to all the rest of their acreage that is contiguous.  So the reality is the land is more valuable to them then probably the FMV.  But you are not trying to "skin them" either.

DO YOUR OWN APPRAISAL!  This will be the most recent and hopefully the most accurate.  It's most likely to be higher than even the new higher appraisal your cousin was sheepish about.  The odds are you will be asked to sell to them below market. Do you want to?  There are transactional costs, and there is no guarantee the land will sell instantly if placed upon the market.

IDEALLY your appraisal will come in pretty close to your Cousin's appraisal and then you can indeed "split the difference" and come to a fair price.  Again it is important to remember that they actually use the land, so it's more valuable to them.  It also appears as if the land is only going upward in value.Would you be pissed if you sold it below value and they turned around and made a killing selling it a couple years from now?   In the end, IF you want to get true FMV by putting the property on the market you could always giver them an option to buy at a predetermined price already negotiated. But you may find your RE agent isn't as excited to list the property.

They probably don't want to sell because of the value the land currently has to your cousins, via their use of it.  For you it's just a cashflow vehicle. Ultimately if they want the land THEY need to come up with an offer number. Then you refuse or accept.  Get the newest appraisal and go from there.  

I think you are correct that doing this is more important to them than to me, for whatever reason.  Which should motivate them to take my offer, even if it's not ideal.  I think the value to them is "use," as well as keep it in the family, as well as some purely financial things by which ownership of more land is an advantage.

The appraisal cost about $7k so not insubstantial, and I think listing the property to find FMV that way would be even more costly, and, at that point, we're definitely eating into the "delta" by which we may differ pretty substantially.  I don't think we're 100k apart.

I think I'm just going to toss my number out there and see what happens.  No firm final offer or anything.  I have a draft email with my reasoning that's pretty hard to argue with.

 

Edited October 8, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Chewbacca 7612]

30 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

I think you are correct that doing this is more important to them than to me, for whatever reason.  Which should motivate them to take my offer, even if it's not ideal.  I think the value to them is "use," as well as keep it in the family, as well as some purely financial things by which ownership of more land is an advantage.

The appraisal cost about $7k so not insubstantial, and I think listing the property to find FMV that way would be even more costly, and, at that point, we're definitely eating into the "delta" by which we may differ pretty substantially.  I don't think we're 100k apart.

I think I'm just going to toss my number out there and see what happens.  No firm final offer or anything.  I have a draft email with my reasoning that's pretty hard to argue with.

 

I wouldn't give them any reasoning, nor wiggle room.  I'd do it just like @DonkeyCigars suggested.  Say I've thought about this a lot and here's my number.  If you want to buy, that's great.  And if not, that's OK, too.  The most important thing is that we don't let it affect us personally.  But that's the amount I will need to be willing to part with the property.

If you include your rationale for pricing it as you do, you're inviting them to come back and negotiate.  And for a deal like this, I would not negotiate.  You have as much right to own it as they do.

[horn4life 3748]

One other thing I thought about, which might be a lever to close the deal.  When they counter lower, simply ask.  "So that's the price you would sell it to me for?"

Then shut the fuck up!!!!

Let them ponder whether their low offer is worth the risk of you agreeing to their price, and you acquiring it from THEM.  You also need to include the potential future cash flow from the timber as part of the price.  As the timber might actually pay for the purchase over time, from the figures you were quoting it seemed a possibility.

[TwiceHorn 30716]

7 minutes ago, horn4life said:

One other thing I thought about, which might be a lever to close the deal.  When they counter lower, simply ask.  "So that's the price you would sell it to me for?"

Then shut the fuck up!!!!

Let them ponder whether their low offer is worth the risk of you agreeing to their price, and you acquiring it from THEM.  You also need to include the potential future cash flow from the timber as part of the price.  As the timber might actually pay for the purchase over time, from the figures you were quoting it seemed a possibility.

Timber revenue cash flow is built into the appraisal.  There's a land value that is derived from comps and a timber value that is based on the things I believe NAAL mentioned upthread.

[Dbeasy 14733]

Just saw this thread. To see an appraisal that is only up about 20% vs a reasonable comp from a year ago is surprising.

Land prices everywhere have appreciated massively in the last year, even taking into account the cash flows of the land. This is because of the dual hit of interest rates and higher inflation. That inflation may be partially transitory, but as compared to the past it will be higher.

It sounds like there is more than enough data indicating the market prices are much higher. Find a land man in the area that isn’t tied to your cousins and have him or her do some comps. They will undoubtedly show greater price per acre and appreciation in the last year. Then show them this and say that the 20% is already a discount off of market. They will still feel like they are getting a deal, and you won’t have to drop the price or be a sucker. 

Edited October 12, 2021 by Dbeasy

[TwiceHorn 30716]

17 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Just saw this thread. To see an appraisal that is only up about 20% vs a reasonable comp from a year ago is surprising.

Land prices everywhere have appreciated massively in the last year, even taking into account the cash flows of the land. This is because of the dual hit of interest rates and higher inflation. That inflation may be partially transitory, but as compared to the past it will be higher.

It sounds like there is more than enough data indicating the market prices are much higher. Find a land man in the area that isn’t tied to your cousins and have him or her do some comps. They will undoubtedly show greater price per acre and appreciation in the last year. Then show them this and say that the 20% is already a discount off of market. They will still few like they are getting a deal, and you won’t have to drop the price or be a sucker. 

Key word there is "reasonable comp."  As mentioned above, the appraisal has two parts, land value, established by comps, and timber value.  I believe timber value has stayed pretty stable over that time, so the variable is quality and quantity.  I'm not sure this rural land is subject to the same "inflation" that residential real estate has undergone in the last couple of years. 

Anyway, the "comparable appraisal" that's lower comprises about 12 separate tracts, with pretty wildly varying valuations.  Most of the 12 are in the general vicinity, but at least a township away (using section/township/range location).  It's hard to say whether they are comparable or not.  There is one tract that is only a section away that actually appraised a fair amount higher than this one, and, being that close and on a highway also, would seem to share a lot of the same topography and geography.

This probably has pretty good land value, because prior to WWII, it was a working farm, meaning it's all accessible and drains well, and is fronted by a highway, among other things.  Some timberland, even in this area, doesn't have those features and can be a bitch to log.  A lot of the other land around was farmland too, but the reason agriculture failed in Arkansas is that you can't put together hundreds or thousands of acres into a giant corporate farm, as you can where agriculture still thrives as an industry.  There's too much geography.

Also, cousins and I "share" the same forester that we have for decades.  His firm did the uncle-in-law's appraisal, and the appraisal 15 years ago when my Mom died.  This appraisal has been done by a forester out of El Dorado with whom neither of us has a prior connection.

Edited October 12, 2021 by TwiceHorn

[Handcruser 2799]

Is this actually really happening? Do you actually have this land and are there potential relatives with nearby land that are interested in purchasing this supposed land?

[SquishMitten 10368]

Think you’ve gotten good advice so far, so I just have one thing to add that may help alleviate some of the potential for bad blood. Give yourself a right of first refusal if they want to sell the property in the future. Maybe include a slight discount like you have the right to purchase it back for 1.5% less than the offer they have on the table (or make it the exact percent you agree to sell below the high appraisal). Or that you’re entitled to X% of the profit if they sell within X number of years. That will help prevent any hard feelings if the property is actually worth quite a bit more than what y’all ultimately agree to.

[orange dream 1199]

I still haven't heard a cogent explanation of why, as the "unintentional" seller, you feel like you are required to put up the first offer.  I'd reiterate how happy you are with the current arrangement, especially given the recent appreciation in land values, but that you'll be willing to consider what they perceive to be a fair offer because you understand that the consolidation of ownership could potentially create even more value for them.  See what they say.  If it is lower than you want, offer to buy from them at the price they just suggested...

Edited October 12, 2021 by orange dream

[horn4life 3748]

The price of lumber has skyrocketed and then receded some in the last 18 months.  I would imagine somewhere in that lumber supply chain somebody is taking that extra margin.

[Jim Ed Love 93]

17 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

ey word there is "reasonable comp."  As mentioned above, the appraisal has two parts, land value, established by comps, and timber value.  I believe timber value has stayed pretty stable over that time, so the variable is quality and quantity.  I'm not sure this rural land is subject to the same "inflation" that residential real estate has undergone in the last couple of years.

Rural land in Arkansaw and Oklahoma has went batshit. Medical weed is causing it. Fifty acre tracts where the soil type and topography is like you would find around Monahans is three thousand an acre. I'm talking rock piles with no improvements.   

[TwiceHorn 30716]

Welp, I made the high-end offer, with an explanation. and it was accepted.

So, thanks for the input.  

[F250 28380]

This was an interesting read. I expected to be in a similar situation with my cousin who has an adjacent ranch to my father's.