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Ukraine War


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11 hours ago, Woland said:

Russia has a cycle of liberalization/authoritarianism as well it’s military being fit/ total shit. It’s about time for liberalization and surely this has to be rock bottom for the military.

I dunnow.  That one time in the forests around Tannenberg in 1914 was pretty bad.  The summer of 1941 was pretty bad too.  

Edited by Chad Fuck
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Could you imagine the level of violence in the heavily armed "annexed" areas if we just set a date and said the side with the most surviving voters wins.  It'd be worse than a typical civil war.  It'd be closer to ethnic cleansing. 

Edited by Tuco
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Speaking of crazy shit on the Russian side, have we talked about Ramzan Kadyrov?  He's the Chechen "Head" who is fucking insane.  Today he said he was sending his teenage sons to the front lines.  Recently he was urging Putin to use nukes.  His family fought against Russia, then flipped sides, and have ruled Chechnya since.  

Reading his wiki page, you might assume that it's just been filled with bullshit: 

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When his sister was detained by the Dagestan police in January 2005, Kadyrov and some 150 armed men drove to the Khasavyurt City Police (GOVD) building. According to the city mayor, Kadyrov's men surrounded the GOVD, forcing its duty officers against a wall, and assaulted them, after which they left the building with Zulay Kadyrova, "victoriously shooting in the air."

 

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In February 2006, responding to the publication of the Mohammed cartoons, he accused the Danes of "spying" and being "pro-terrorist". He also banned Danish citizens from entering Chechnya, effectively banning activity of the Danish Refugee Council, the largest non-governmental organisation working in the region. Kadyrov is quoted as saying, "That cartoonist needs to be buried alive." He was eventually pressed to overturn this decision by Moscow, a rare example of federal intervention in Kadyrov's rule in the republic.[44]

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On 26 May 2015, he announced that he was going to star in a Hollywood thriller titled Whoever Doesn't Understand Will Get It which will be directed by a director of famous Hollywood films and also feature global film-stars.

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Kadyrov launched his reality show titled The Team with the first episode being aired by Channel One on 30 June. People from across Russia were invited by Kadyrov to register for the contest. The winner of the contest will go on to become head of Chechnya's Agency for Strategic Development.

 

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During the COVID-19 pandemic in Russia, Kadyrov initially in March dismissed the spread of the disease as nothing serious.[111] Later, Chechnya imposed strict measures to curb the spread of coronavirus after it first emerged in the republic. In an interview to Caucasian Knot, Kadyrov purportedly stated that infected people violating self-quarantine should be killed. 

It's a weird fucking world. 

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Maybe he finally saw some of these Kennedy speeches floating around. 

Right. Because Joe Biden is just now learning about that history thanks to social media.

He’s dropping a not so subtle reminder about MADD. That’s hardly a new concept to him. He’s a veteran of the Cold War. I think he’s calling Putin’s bluff.

I’m not sure to what extent Putin is a rational actor. But I have a hard time grasping where he would strike with a tactical nuke in an effort to pursue his stated goal of reintegrating Ukraine as part of Russia. I mean, none of it makes sense to begin with. But if you think Ukraine is part of Russia, then nuking Ukraine is nuking Russia. Why would you nuke territory that you want to claim and occupy as if it’s your own?

Assad in Syria used chemical weapons against his own people to protect his own dictatorship. (And Russia helped bomb the hospitals where they were treating little children afterward.) But Putin’s rule was never threatened. How do you use tactical nukes in a war of aggression when you’re trying to seize someone else’s territory? If you nuke Kyiv, who’s going to go in and raise the Russian flag to claim victory?

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56 minutes ago, Humble Beast said:

Maybe he finally saw some of these Kennedy speeches floating around. 

Well, JFK was right to have the US stand up to the Russians during the Cuban Missile Crisis, and we and NATO are rightly standing up to them again.

This notion that we can’t hurt Putin’s feelings is dumb here in October of 2022.  He’s been humiliated so many times, his government can’t even properly outfight their mobilized folks, and his talking heads on Russian state TV don’t even hide their depression anymore.  He’s got an off ramp, that little bridge he built out of Crimea.

But it’s all about not hurting Pooty’s feelings.

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9 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

How do you use tactical nukes in a war of aggression when you’re trying to seize someone else’s territory? 

You don’t.  If he were going to use nukes, he would have done it during the attempt at Kyiv, when Russia still had the numbers   Part of the point of a tactical nuke is creating a situation that your forces can exploit   He doesn’t have the forces to exploit it.

At this point, the major players in the world understand that if Putin uses nukes, then anybody who still backs Russia will face the same sanctions that Russia currently does.  That would devastate China (in particular), India, Saudi Arabia, etc.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

You don’t.  If he were going to use nukes, he would have done it during the attempt at Kyiv, when Russia still had the numbers   Part of the point of a tactical nuke is creating a situation that your forces can exploit   He doesn’t have the forces to exploit it.

At this point, the major players in the world understand that if Putin uses nukes, then anybody who still backs Russia will face the same sanctions that Russia currently does.  That would devastate China (in particular), India, Saudi Arabia, etc.

Speaking of Saudi Arabia, Biden should send a message to MBS that if they reduce oil production to raise prices and help Russia then we’ll immediately declassify everything we have on any connection to every Saudi Royal and 9/11. And they can forget any future arms sales. And we’re going to redouble our efforts on an Iranian nuclear deal. (Of course that last part gets complicated because they’re selling arms to Russia so we’d have to put a stop to that. Diplomacy is hard.)

We should’ve moved to green energy in the 80’s and ended our addiction to oil so we could’ve told everyone in the Middle East - Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and so on - as well as Russia - to go fuck themselves decades ago. (This might not be the best place to speak that obvious truth.) Imagine where they’d be if our demand for oil was a fraction of what it currently is.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

You don’t.  If he were going to use nukes, he would have done it during the attempt at Kyiv, when Russia still had the numbers   Part of the point of a tactical nuke is creating a situation that your forces can exploit   He doesn’t have the forces to exploit it.

At this point, the major players in the world understand that if Putin uses nukes, then anybody who still backs Russia will face the same sanctions that Russia currently does.  That would devastate China (in particular), India, Saudi Arabia, etc.

What the fuck?  Why would he have launched nukes when he still thought they’d easily take Kyiv?

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The point still stands that its really hard to see how a tactical nuke could help Russia on the current battlefield. The scenario that I think is most likely -- Ukraine pushes Russia out of the Donbas, Zap, and Kherson, and is getting ready to take on Crimea. Putin positions a tactical nuke at the ithsmus connecting Crimea to Ukraine -- basically the only way for Ukraine to enter Crimea -- and says if you try to invade Crimea, we nuke you. 

Hopefully the west's collective intel would know if that is a bluff or not, but if Russia was actually able to put a nuke there I don't know what the solution would be, short of calling in Mi6/007

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4 minutes ago, texastough said:

The point still stands that its really hard to see how a tactical nuke could help Russia on the current battlefield. The scenario that I think is most likely -- Ukraine pushes Russia out of the Donbas, Zap, and Kherson, and is getting ready to take on Crimea. Putin positions a tactical nuke at the ithsmus connecting Crimea to Ukraine -- basically the only way for Ukraine to enter Crimea -- and says if you try to invade Crimea, we nuke you. 

Hopefully the west's collective intel would know if that is a bluff or not, but if Russia was actually able to put a nuke there I don't know what the solution would be, short of calling in Mi6/007

I’ll bet we could sink the entire Russian fleet in the Black Sea if we wanted to. 

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10 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

probably in about 15 minutes

I have to believe we have a stealth sub in the area that the Russkies don’t know about, monitoring actions and communications, and relaying all of that back to HQ. And that contingency plans for every scenario, however remote, are in the works.

Also, since Joe has been playing the intelligence game so well, he should respond to Putin when he says he has weapons more advanced than anyone else in the world with a grin and a wink and say, “As far as you know.”

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2 minutes ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I have to believe we have a stealth sub in the area that the Russkies don’t know about, monitoring actions and communications, and relaying all of that back to HQ. And that contingency plans for every scenario, however remote, are in the works.

Also, since Joe has been playing the intelligence game so well, he should respond to Putin when he says he has weapons more advanced than anyone else in the world with a grin and a wink and say, “As far as you know.”

Probably not a sub as I don't know how you'd sneak it past the Turks. But I'd bet good money we have some sort of listening device(s) on the bottom of the Black Sea that have marked every Russian navel asset. 

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20 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

Probably not a sub as I don't know how you'd sneak it past the Turks. But I'd bet good money we have some sort of listening device(s) on the bottom of the Black Sea that have marked every Russian navel asset. 

It we’re designing systems to sneak past the Russians and the Chinese, wouldn’t it stand to reason that we could sneak them past the Turks?

You know, unless Donald Trump is selling state secrets. 

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3 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

It we’re designing systems to sneak past the Russians and the Chinese, wouldn’t it stand to reason that we could sneak them past the Turks?

You know, unless Donald Trump is selling state secrets. 

Are you saying a secret sub somewhere in the world or in the Black Sea.  I think it would pretty hard to sneak anything into the Black Sea unless you airlifted it. 

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4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

I have to believe we have a stealth sub in the area that the Russkies don’t know about, monitoring actions and communications, and relaying all of that back to HQ. And that contingency plans for every scenario, however remote, are in the works.

Also, since Joe has been playing the intelligence game so well, he should respond to Putin when he says he has weapons more advanced than anyone else in the world with a grin and a wink and say, “As far as you know.”

No sub. But those Navy aircraft can drop monitoring devices. And NATO can see deep into Russia. Our shit is so much better than theirs. HIMAR's is 1980's tech with upgrades. Take that Vlad. 

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5 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

What the fuck?  Why would he have launched nukes when he still thought they’d easily take Kyiv?

Meant right after the attempt failed (if he can’t have it, neither can the Ukrainians).  Had he nuked Kyiv (or another area nearby) early on, I think it would have put the country and the leadership in enough disarray that the Russians would have had little problems securing the eastern part of Ukraine (Putin did not have enough troops to take the whole country and actually occupy it).

Of course, the effect of failing to take Kyiv was lost on him - he clearly did not have the foresight to see just how important that was psychologically to the Ukrainian people, and how much of a signal it sent to the West that Ukraine could stand up to Putin..  

And while US and European support was building before the invasion and before and after the battle for Kyiv, a nuke in the first two months might have forced a lot of countries to take a step back,

Edited by atomheartbevo
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5 hours ago, texastough said:

The point still stands that its really hard to see how a tactical nuke could help Russia on the current battlefield. The scenario that I think is most likely -- Ukraine pushes Russia out of the Donbas, Zap, and Kherson, and is getting ready to take on Crimea. Putin positions a tactical nuke at the ithsmus connecting Crimea to Ukraine -- basically the only way for Ukraine to enter Crimea -- and says if you try to invade Crimea, we nuke you. 

Hopefully the west's collective intel would know if that is a bluff or not, but if Russia was actually able to put a nuke there I don't know what the solution would be, short of calling in Mi6/007

It’ll be an air-launched nuke.  We know the Ukrainians have on-the-ground assets in Crimea, and it could easily be within HIMARS range if it was on the isthmus. While I think Crimea might be some kind of red line, I don’t think he stations a nuke on the ground within reach of Ukrainian ground forces or HIMARS. 

With that said, we know it’s been conveyed to them not to use nukes.  China and India won’t support him and will cut him off rather than risk the wrath of Europe/Japan/etc.

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5 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

It we’re designing systems to sneak past the Russians and the Chinese, wouldn’t it stand to reason that we could sneak them past the Turks?

You know, unless Donald Trump is selling state secrets. 

The geography of the Dardanelles and the Bosporus would make it tough to sneak anything bigger than a Ford Mustang through there. Plenty of sensor options without pissing off an alleged ally. I suspect we can "see" anything we need with a Rivet Joint and a P-8. 

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23 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

Speaking of Saudi Arabia, Biden should send a message to MBS that if they reduce oil production to raise prices and help Russia then we’ll immediately declassify everything we have on any connection to every Saudi Royal and 9/11. And they can forget any future arms sales. And we’re going to redouble our efforts on an Iranian nuclear deal. (Of course that last part gets complicated because they’re selling arms to Russia so we’d have to put a stop to that. Diplomacy is hard.)

We should’ve moved to green energy in the 80’s and ended our addiction to oil so we could’ve told everyone in the Middle East - Iran, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and so on - as well as Russia - to go fuck themselves decades ago. (This might not be the best place to speak that obvious truth.) Imagine where they’d be if our demand for oil was a fraction of what it currently is.

Figure out how to get the people paid from it and they'll go green.... 

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