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Week 4, 2023: Texas @ Baylor


Wulaw Horn

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13 hours ago, msucolt45 said:


If you get there early enough, Chip and Joanna’s “Magnolia Square” is just West of 35 and the Baylor campus. Short walk after eating an early brunch/lunch and buying shiplap type “creative” things, according to my wife! Last trip to the UT @ Baylor game, she insisted that we took my truck, just in case she saw a “larger” item in the touristy area. So I asked her who’d be watching our truck while we’re at the game - so I won!

The only thing North of the river is the Bidet on the Brazos and a Track & Field complex.

Hook’em!!!

The nice thing about this strategy is that you might kill yourself before you even get to the game, just in case Texas lays an egg. 

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I'm guessing Aranda is going to show something different than what we've seen so far this year. Just like Rice and Wyoming did. Also guessing Sark will stick with his game plan in the first half no matter what until second half. Hopefully I'm wrong and he treats conference games different than those "pre season" games. 

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On offense, I'm starting to be reminded of some early Mack teams with Simms, Roy Williams, Benson, etc. That "shouldn't we be better than this?" feeling, where we'd be 10th in the conference in total offense with a bunch of first rounders. We need a get-right, 55 point game in a big way.

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26 minutes ago, BERT said:

I'm guessing Aranda is going to show something different than what we've seen so far this year. Just like Rice and Wyoming did. Also guessing Sark will stick with his game plan in the first half no matter what until second half. Hopefully I'm wrong and he treats conference games different than those "pre season" games. 

I would assume our opponents will play some variation of a cover-3 cloud until Sark shows he can attack it effectively, (and more importantly) Ewers proves he can read it properly and move the ball. And of paramount importance, Texas has to have an effective running game to beat this defense.

Oklahoma State, TCU, and Wyoming all gave Texas fits with this defensive look.

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3 minutes ago, Fud said:

 

Turnover margin and 2-3 chunk plays per game have gotten us out of the inconsistency hole.
 

New clock rules would’ve been a godsend in the past for our sputtering second halves. If we don’t get hot starts in conference, Quinn is going to get 7-8 drives a game to work with and right now we can count on at least half of those being duds.

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1 minute ago, UnhappilyMarried said:

Turnover margin and 2-3 chunk plays per game have gotten us out of the inconsistency hole.
 

New clock rules would’ve been a godsend in the past for our sputtering second halves. If we don’t get hot starts in conference, Quinn is going to get 7-8 drives a game to work with and right now we can count on at least half of those being duds.

Because of course, our offense will not improve over the course of the season. Nope. Teams never improve offensively as they get into a rhythm and consistency 

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4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

On offense, I'm starting to be reminded of some early Mack teams with Simms, Roy Williams, Benson, etc. That "shouldn't we be better than this?" feeling, where we'd be 10th in the conference in total offense with a bunch of first rounders. We need a get-right, 55 point game in a big way.

Looks like we are middle of pack in the Big 12 in yards per game and 45th nationally currently. Will be interesting to check back in 2-3 weeks once conference play starts for everyone and some of the outlier performances against Ball State get bunched in with playing actual opponents. 

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Because of course, our offense will not improve over the course of the season. Nope. Teams never improve offensively as they get into a rhythm and consistency 

I specifically clarified that right now half the drives are duds.


I expect more consistency, but I also expect a handful of more talented defensive coordinators than any we’ve faced YTD with hyper-specific game plans to give Quinn trouble. 

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11 minutes ago, MuellerHorn said:

I would assume our opponents will play some variation of a cover-3 cloud until Sark shows he can attack it effectively, (and more importantly) Ewers proves he can read it properly and move the ball. And of paramount importance, Texas has to have an effective running game to beat this defense.

Oklahoma State, TCU, and Wyoming all gave Texas fits with this defensive look.

Sounds like a 2 back kinda day. But i'm an idiot lol

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11 minutes ago, Hookem2147 said:

Looks like we are middle of pack in the Big 12 in yards per game and 45th nationally currently. Will be interesting to check back in 2-3 weeks once conference play starts for everyone and some of the outlier performances against Ball State get bunched in with playing actual opponents. 

For sure. Rice, Alabama, and Wyoming are not bad opponents. Even with two G5 teams, Texas has faced a pretty good non-conference schedule.

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29 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

The Baylor offense only works when the stretch running game is getting yards. They want to jog to one side or the other, widen the gaps, and let the RB pick one to run through. Obviously, this works better when your RB is a basher. He needs to usually slam through a tackle for 3-4 ugly yards. Baylor does not have that guy. Their current RBs are indecisive and unable to force the issue if it isn't there.

T'Vondre Sweat can make everyone's job simpler by blowing up the middle of the field. Without that to play off of, the Baylor running game dies under gap integrity (Anthony Hill, this isn't the game to overplay your role).

The Baylor QB cannot create in the passing  game. They rely on the running game forcing defenders to overcommit. They're looking for downfield passes to receivers standing WIDE open by themselves, since the defender committed to the run. If the run game leaves them in 3rd and 7, they'll pray that a dragging TE gets ignored. Other than that, it's a scramble and throwaway.

If the Texas offense ever wanted to run between the tackles, this is the game. Blast their lightweight NT out of the A gap and have at it. It won't be glamorous for the first drive, but Baylor will either need to commit additional defenders quickly or face an easy but inescapable death. Once those defenders commit, just use your toys to score how you will.

Texas' only real opponent in this game is Texas. Baylor cannot compete directly. This game will be functionally over as soon as Texas executes its fundamentals. If that happens from the start, Baylor will fold in the middle of 2nd quarter and may realistically end the Aranda era. They're a fragile, apathetic bunch right now who are mentally checked out. They'll give it their best in the beginning out of pride. If there's success (because Texas allowed it), the game could be on. Otherwise, they'll have emptied the bag and surrendered.

This is a great encapsulation of what Sark's game plan should be Saturday evening.

All indications point to Sark being a self-aware and change-oriented person/coach. He's actually pretty vulnerable and reflective in plenty of his media appearances - practically the opposite of Jimbo, Herman, etc. However, like all coaches, Sark does have tendencies and can abandon this correct plan of attack for those tendencies too quickly. Quinn is capable of the same errors in terms of targeting Worthy too quickly, even when a third read might be wide open for a better gain/completion.

Ergo, I believe we'll learn a lot about both Sark and Quinn against Baylor. This is a game Texas should win convincingly due to both scheme and a large talent gap. Nevertheless, given the motivation Baylor, Aranda, and the conference has for Baylor to win, plus the proclivity for Sark's Texas teams to play to the level of their opponents, we'll see what happens. I'll be interested to see how Sark and Ewers may adapt. A lot has been said regarding "embrace the hate," but I want this team to really show me in conference play.

Edited by MuellerHorn
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Something we should all be watching closely with Hutson out is how opposing defenses attack the right side of the offensive line. If I were a DC, I would be bringing different pressures at Campbell all game long. Communication between Jones and Campbell, as well as Campbell's blitz recognition, needs to improve.

At the end of this sack, Jones is left visibly wondering why Campbell didn't pick up the end when a blitzing LB walked up to the LOS late.

 

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18 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

I’m Going to this game, it’ll be my first ever experience watching Texas on the road.  Any recs on where to pre-game?

I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth.  SMU plays at TCU at 11:00.  Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future.  Go to Joe T's for a late lunch.  And then head down to Waco for the Texas game.

Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.

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1 hour ago, MuellerHorn said:

I would assume our opponents will play some variation of a cover-3 cloud until Sark shows he can attack it effectively, (and more importantly) Ewers proves he can read it properly and move the ball. And of paramount importance, Texas has to have an effective running game to beat this defense.

Oklahoma State, TCU, and Wyoming all gave Texas fits with this defensive look.

Everyone giving Sark and Quinn the same look should help them learn and overcome it soon IMO.   What better way to learn other than reps.  

Putting my trust in them making strides on it coming into this weekend. 

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18 hours ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

I can honestly say I hate Rapylor more than any other football team. I hate their lame ass color scheme, I hate their city and their corrupt PD, I hate their faux christian bullshit, I hate their fair weather fans, I hate rape and rape enablers, I hate fArt Briles, I hate Ken Starr, I hate I hate hate hate

 

 

 

IMG_4982.gif

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1 hour ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

The Baylor offense only works when the stretch running game is getting yards. They want to jog to one side or the other, widen the gaps, and let the RB pick one to run through. Obviously, this works better when your RB is a basher. He needs to usually slam through a tackle for 3-4 ugly yards. Baylor does not have that guy. Their current RBs are indecisive and unable to force the issue if it isn't there.

T'Vondre Sweat can make everyone's job simpler by blowing up the middle of the field. Without that to play off of, the Baylor running game dies under gap integrity (Anthony Hill, this isn't the game to overplay your role).

The Baylor QB cannot create in the passing  game. They rely on the running game forcing defenders to overcommit. They're looking for downfield passes to receivers standing WIDE open by themselves, since the defender committed to the run. If the run game leaves them in 3rd and 7, they'll pray that a dragging TE gets ignored. Other than that, it's a scramble and throwaway.

If the Texas offense ever wanted to run between the tackles, this is the game. Blast their lightweight NT out of the A gap and have at it. It won't be glamorous for the first drive, but Baylor will either need to commit additional defenders quickly or face an easy but inescapable death. Once those defenders commit, just use your toys to score how you will.

Texas' only real opponent in this game is Texas. Baylor cannot compete directly. This game will be functionally over as soon as Texas executes its fundamentals. If that happens from the start, Baylor will fold in the middle of 2nd quarter and may realistically end the Aranda era. They're a fragile, apathetic bunch right now who are mentally checked out. They'll give it their best in the beginning out of pride. If there's success (because Texas allowed it), the game could be on. Otherwise, they'll have emptied the bag and surrendered.

I spend a lot of time looking at our opponents and data (among other matchups) because I like to throw a few bucks here and there at games.

When the line started it was at -8. That was free money but man that # jumped quick. 

You didn't say it outright, but you described it. They run the wide zone. It's all about  OL movement and cutbacks by the RB's. They absolutely don't have a basher anymore, so that means their offense stalls often. Lots of stops at the LOS for an opposing defense. They cannot throw over the top because they don't have a WR that can run by people. I think their starter is hurt and that means even less throwing ability.  As far as aranda  - they are tied into a massive contract and kicking the shit out of them isn't going to change his employment status - but it will still be fun to do it.

I missed -8 and laid off -15 for a number of reasons. Everything points to a +20 pt win and them scoring 10 or less.

Edited by redswingline
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22 minutes ago, Ghost of LL said:

I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth.  SMU plays at TCU at 11:00.  Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future.  Go to Joe T's for a late lunch.  And then head down to Waco for the Texas game.

Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.

Brown water margarita's at Joe T's are fantastic and potent -- not sure a roadtrip to "Bidet on the Brazos" would be in the cards without a designated driver. 

Love Joe T's just remember that unless things have changed there, Joe T's only takes cash.  😋

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10 minutes ago, redswingline said:

I spend a lot of time looking at our opponents and data (among other matchups) because I like to throw a few bucks here and there at games.

When the line started it was at -8. That was free money but man that # jumped quick. 

You didn't say it outright, but you described it. They run the wide zone. It's all about  OL movement and cutbacks by the RB's. They absolutely don't have a basher anymore, so that means their offense stalls often. Lots of stops at the LOS for an opposing defense. They cannot throw over the top because they don't have a WR that can run by people. I think their starter is hurt and that means even less throwing ability.  As far as aranda  - they are tied into a massive contract and kicking the shit out of them isn't going to change his employment status - but it will still be fun to do it.

I missed -8 and laid off -15 for a number of reasons. Everything points to a +20 pt win and them scoring 10 or less.

Really, your uncertainty here is only how much you believe in Texas' ability to execute fundamentals. The Texas team that lined up against Bama and executed can name its score against Baylor. A Texas team that defensively guesses at gaps, comes off assignments to chase RBs, offensively throws off back feet and clangs easy passes off receivers con manos de piedra will find themselves on SportsCenter as giddy students carry away the goalposts.

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24 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

Really, your uncertainty here is only how much you believe in Texas' ability to execute fundamentals. The Texas team that lined up against Bama and executed can name its score against Baylor. A Texas team that defensively guesses at gaps, comes off assignments to chase RBs, offensively throws off back feet and clangs easy passes off receivers con manos de piedra will find themselves on SportsCenter as giddy students carry away the goalposts.

 I use a combination of stats, information (player injuries, game location etc) and watching teams before betting. For this particular matchup, I laid off due to a lack of data points. I know baylor is bad, but I'm not certain how bad, yet.  For me, laying off happens quite a bit at the beginning of the season because the fewer the games, the less data we have. I'm also not impressed by our offensive efficiency. Plus this is also a road game - which increases (betting) risk.  A key marker for me is comparable opponents (vague, I know but I won't get into detail on it) and we don't have that data either. If I step away from all of that, I'm certain we win and would not be surprised if it was 42-10. But I'm not going to lay down big coin on it.

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35 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

Really, your uncertainty here is only how much you believe in Texas' ability to execute fundamentals. The Texas team that lined up against Bama and executed can name its score against Baylor. A Texas team that defensively guesses at gaps, comes off assignments to chase RBs, offensively throws off back feet and clangs easy passes off receivers con manos de piedra will find themselves on SportsCenter as giddy students carry away the goalposts.

They don’t have enough to give our defense true issues. I also believe Wyoming has a better OL than them. Wyoming is also better coached. 
 

If we turn the ball over or give up big plays on special teams, then this can get close. If we play a similar game to how we did on offense last week, we will get another unimpressive win. Sawyer is gonna throw a bunch of picks as long as we make them throw the ball. 
 

Pound the ball, play clean, score TDs, play defense, and they’ll be forced to adjust on both sides of the ball. We can start throwing more once they do. 

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I hope the staff recognizes that we have an elite defense this year and call the offense to help them.

High percentage passes and run the ball to keep the clock moving and reduce the number of possessions the other team has. Our defense can shut teams out if we do that.

I don't want to see many three incomplete pass three and outs. 

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49 minutes ago, LTtxfan said:

What about this guy having the speed to go deep for baylor ??

I was looking at tape a couple days ago. Their WR's could not get separation vs tx st or utah. That certainly will not improve when playing us.

Plus, they are playing a backup QB that is starting his 2nd game? Even if a WR gets open, who thinks their QB can get him the ball?

 

complettion.jpg.ef420d7a128f921f28226f66ae127fda.jpg

 

qbstats.jpg.158371b16d8343d4cc0382d6908d2e8c.jpg

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49 minutes ago, GoldAppleCorps said:

Really, your uncertainty here is only how much you believe in Texas' ability to execute fundamentals.

Yes,

 

Quote

The Texas team that lined up against Bama and executed can name its score against Baylor. 

Also yes.   

 

Texas tends to play to its opponents level (which often manifests itself in shit execution of fundamentals) until proven otherwise.

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6 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

I hope the staff recognizes that we have an elite defense this year and call the offense to help them.

High percentage passes and run the ball to keep the clock moving and reduce the number of possessions the other team has. Our defense can shut teams out if we do that.

I don't want to see many three incomplete pass three and outs. 

If you're the superior team, you shouldn't want to limit possessions in a game

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I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth.  SMU plays at TCU at 11:00.  Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future.  Go to Joe T's for a late lunch.  And then head down to Waco for the Texas game.
Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.
I vastly prefer Los Vaqueros for TexMex, and it's just a short walk away from Joe T's. Of course FW now has a variety of great restaurants serving just about any type cuisine you can think of.
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17 minutes ago, ousux said:
1 hour ago, Ghost of LL said:
I'll tell you what--if I were going to this game, I'd pre-game in Fort Worth.  SMU plays at TCU at 11:00.  Get you some Iron Skillet action for the last time for the foreseeable future.  Go to Joe T's for a late lunch.  And then head down to Waco for the Texas game.
Pull into the Bidet on the Brazos just in time to take care of what is going to come naturally after your meal at Joe T's.

I vastly prefer Los Vaqueros for TexMex, and it's just a short walk away from Joe T's. Of course FW now has a variety of great restaurants serving just about any type cuisine you can think of.

Also El Patron, unless the goal is simply to sit outside and drink margaritas. 

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37 minutes ago, Atticus said:

They don’t have enough to give our defense true issues. I also believe Wyoming has a better OL than them. Wyoming is also better coached. 

If you go back and watch the Wyoming game, their QB played pretty fucking lights out (given what his talent level was supposed to be) outside of the pick six once they were in desperation mode. He got almost everything he could out of our defense - which admittedly wasn't a lot. 

If this Baylor QB doesn't play one of the best games of his life they are going to be in for a long fucking night. 

Granted, we've seen QBs pull that shit time and time again against Texas. Maybe Ant Hill or Sorrell can knock that bullshit out of him early. 

Edited by ztejas
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