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Posted
3 minutes ago, Armybrat said:

I had the same thoughts. 
looks like one of Putin’s main drone suppliers will be out of business. 
Zelensky should be pleased.

I wouldn’t be surprised if Ukraine helped a tiny bit, I’m sure they are tracking shipments out of Iran to Russia.

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Posted

Here is a big one... 

I say this because now Israel is in visible negotiations with Iran regarding their response and now put the Iranian oil fields on the table as a viable target. 

The fact that so far this has only been explicit military/nuclear capability targets is probably more restraint than expected, and now Israel is openly dictating the terms of what is a viable response if the current leadership wants to stay in power long-term. The destruction of the Iranian refineries on Kharg Island would essentially destroy all oil/natural gas export capabilities of Iran and their only real avenue for hard currency. 

Can Iran be restrained in their response while saving enough face to keep their proxies in line? I am guessing no, and Israel torches only a portion of the infrastructure of the Khuzestan Basin at the start and tells OPEC to get Iran in line or they are going to hit Kharg Island. That is the real jewel economically for Iran and OPEC will either have to demand Iran to play ball or Iran gets economically neutered and most of the major players in the ME no longer have a financial reason to put up with their bullshit. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Laxtonto said:

Here is a big one... 

I say this because now Israel is in visible negotiations with Iran regarding their response and now put the Iranian oil fields on the table as a viable target. 

The fact that so far this has only been explicit military/nuclear capability targets is probably more restraint than expected, and now Israel is openly dictating the terms of what is a viable response if the current leadership wants to stay in power long-term. The destruction of the Iranian refineries on Kharg Island would essentially destroy all oil/natural gas export capabilities of Iran and their only real avenue for hard currency. 

Can Iran be restrained in their response while saving enough face to keep their proxies in line? I am guessing no, and Israel torches only a portion of the infrastructure of the Khuzestan Basin at the start and tells OPEC to get Iran in line or they are going to hit Kharg Island. That is the real jewel economically for Iran and OPEC will either have to demand Iran to play ball or Iran gets economically neutered and most of the major players in the ME no longer have a financial reason to put up with their bullshit. 

I don't know shit about fuck, but it seems like after you get you entire military decapitated that you probably don't have any competent way to respond to shit. 

Posted

If this plays out.  And it's a big "if", this takes two massive pieces off the board.  

IF there is some semblance of regime change (and I hate that phrase) in Iran, giving the Iranian people some level of self-determinism, it's a win for the entire region.  Almost every state-sponsored terrorist organization in the region has ties to Iran. 

What I can't hash out is how.  Internal revolution?  The IDF can degrade Iranian capabilities, but they can't do anything on the ground.  

But IF this were to happen, Russia's major partner in crime also isn't there to help prop up their war efforts.  They need Iranian supplied munitions and arms to keep this up.  

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Posted
2 hours ago, Brian Fantana said:

Lol @ the notion that this has literally anything at all to do with October 7. Some of you are so tunnel visioned it's incredible.

I think October 7th was the tactical error. It broke the tenous peace and invited a blowback that is still reveberating to this moment. And it's going horribly for the Anti-Israel faction of Hamas, Iran, non-peaceful Palestinians, etc.

CEO of ADL had this to say about it and I generally agree with him:

Quote

Let’s be clear: Israel’s strike on the Islamic Republic of Iran is an act of self-defense. The war did not begin tonight. The Islamic Republic of Iran has been waging covert and overt war against Israel and global Jewry for decades.

The Iranian regime is the world's leading state sponsor of antisemitism and terror. Destroying Israel has been one of the core tenets of the regime since 1979. Time and again, it has reminded the world of its commitment to this genocidal aspiration.

The Islamic Republic and its terror proxies chant ‘Death to Israel, Death to America’ in the same breath. Time and again, the Jewish people have learned a difficult, painful lesson that was reaffirmed as recently as 10/7/23: Believe your enemies. Take them at their word.

Bottom line: Standing with the Jewish state is standing against terror.

 

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Posted
3 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

I think October 7th was the tactical error. It broke the tenous peace and invited a blowback that is still reveberating to this moment. And it's going horribly for the Anti-Israel faction of Hamas, Iran, non-peaceful Palestinians, etc.

CEO of ADL had this to say about it and I generally agree with him:

 

That's certainly a take. 

Posted
6 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

CEO of ADL had this to say about it and I generally agree with him:

Jonathan Greenblatt is a fucking dipshit moron lying piece of shit hope this helps.

He had a great take on Elon Musk's Nazi salute too, I suggest you go look it up

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Posted
1 hour ago, Bobby_Batronic said:

The methodical nature has been something to behold. They’ve largely eliminated Iran’s neighboring proxies and or prevented them from responding, and now they’ve started on the main course.
 

One wonders if the IAF’s destruction of the Iranian air defense networks and missiles was a warning shot, or merely the first blow followed by a pause to collect itself for the next mission.  

It does also give some heartburn insofar as the IDF has thoroughly demonstrated their ability to pinpoint target and reduce unnecessary casualities. And yet, they're dropping 2000lb JDAMs into city blocks in Gaza

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Posted
6 minutes ago, immamac said:

That's certainly a take. 

I guess I’m not sure what choice Israel had. Iran has been promising their annihilation for decades and they’re allegedly weeks away from a bomb. If true, from Israel’s perspective, logically, they either fight now, while their major population centers exist, or they fight once their major population centers have been destroyed. 

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Posted
2 minutes ago, immamac said:

I don't know shit about fuck, but it seems like after you get you entire military decapitated that you probably don't have any competent way to respond to shit. 

They will always have ballistic missiles buried in the mountains (though once they are launched, that launcher is probably toast) and so they can just lob missiles at cities to try and overwhelm their anti-missile systems or hope the shrapnel of the knocked down missiles hits the population and economic base. So basically, they are then more of a terror weapon than military weapons and it means the population for both countries are under constant air/missile warnings from it.

While war is war, Israel is giving Iran the option of military targets only or military and economic targets. The issue is that the only economic targets for Iran are oil/natural gas and 90% of their refining capability is centralized in one spot. If Israel wants to go there, Iran can not stop them. This was one of the US threats when discussing Iran getting their proxies in line in the past, and I would suspect the Israelis are much less restrained in their actions if Iran does not back down. The problem here is that limits the Iranian response because their ballistic and drone capabilities are going to be much less precise, and so there are a smaller set of military targets that would fall under the margin of error of their guidance systems.

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

Jonathan Greenblatt is a fucking dipshit moron lying piece of shit hope this helps.

Anyways...In a large epic story spanning thousands of pages, the plot is made up of scenes. Scenes drive the character(s) and the conflicts and the arcs therein. Not all scenes are weighted the same.

The 10/7 was a massive scenic event that will go down as a huge event that set this powderkeg off again and one of the biggest events.

But sure, let's just pretend that 10/7 wasn't a catalyst or a powder keg moment in history and minimize 10/7. I also pretend the Red Wedding wasn't a big deal in GoT.

Edited by Vegas64
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Posted
3 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

Anyways...In a large epic story spanning thousands of pages, the plot is made up of scenes. Scenes drive the character(s) and the conflicts and the arcs therein. Not all scenes are weighted the same.

The 10/7 was a massive scenic event that will go down as a huge event that set this powderkeg off again and one of the biggest events.

But sure, let's just pretend that 10/7 wasn't a catalyst or a powder keg moment in history and minimize 10/7. I also pretend the Red Wedding wasn't a big deal in GoT.

Red Wedding didn't do shit for the overall plot. 

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Posted
29 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

To be clear, I very much support the decapitation of the current Iranian regime, fuck them. Free the people.

Anyone who disagrees with this statement outside of Iranian leaders and Jihad Extremist of various sorts... I don't understand at all.

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Posted

In regards to both Hamas/Palestine, Iran, and whoever else we're talking about, these people need to understand that they've lost.  This is common in the history of war.  The losing side won't admit that they've lost and as a result, more and more people die needlessly.  (The Confederacy, Germany, Japan, etc.)  Had Japan, for example, surrendered after the fire bombing of Tokyo, we would have never dropped the two bombs.  Completely pointless but they simply weren't going to surrender.  

Hamas and the Palestinians lost.  They also lose.  Every war they fight, they lose and end up in a worse place.  Take the knee.  Iran lost.  There will never be a nuclear program there, thank god.  Just take the knee and stop with all the bullshit.

But what you're seeing the Israeli's do here is how you historically win a war.  It's not clean like we try to make it.  It's why the US really can't win a war anymore.  We're not going to level the place or starve them out.  You win by doing what Israel is doing.  War is hell.  That's why it's bad.

These people need to take a knee....

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Posted
39 minutes ago, immamac said:

Red Wedding didn't do shit for the overall plot. 

20 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Red Wedding was merely masturbatory material for the fans.

The Red Wedding removed Starks from power in the North and eliminated the primary front of the war with the Lannisters, gave Winterfell to the Boltons, set up Sansa's marriage to Ramsey, caused Arya to go East and get trained by the faceless men, and later Arya's murder of all Frey men. It did some shit.

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Posted (edited)

The point is that, as is mostly the case, two things are true at the same time.

1. Palestine, Israel, Hamas, etc. all have a sweeping history that spans decades if not centuries of conflict and 10/7 was just another in the long line of catalysmic event.

2. 10/7 absolutely kicked off this season of war- and it's turning out to be one of the largest pyrrhic victories in the conflict to date (as far as I can tell) in that it's playing out horribly for Anti-Israel factions of every stripe.

So talking about life at and after 10/7 and analyzing from that angle isn't "tunnel vision" @Brian Fantana.

Edited by Vegas64
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Posted
13 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

In regards to both Hamas/Palestine, Iran, and whoever else we're talking about, these people need to understand that they've lost.  This is common in the history of war.  The losing side won't admit that they've lost and as a result, more and more people die needlessly.  (The Confederacy, Germany, Japan, etc.)  Had Japan, for example, surrendered after the fire bombing of Tokyo, we would have never dropped the two bombs.  Completely pointless but they simply weren't going to surrender.  

Hamas and the Palestinians lost.  They also lose.  Every war they fight, they lose and end up in a worse place.  Take the knee.  Iran lost.  There will never be a nuclear program there, thank god.  Just take the knee and stop with all the bullshit.

But what you're seeing the Israeli's do here is how you historically win a war.  It's not clean like we try to make it.  It's why the US really can't win a war anymore.  We're not going to level the place or starve them out.  You win by doing what Israel is doing.  War is hell.  That's why it's bad.

These people need to take a knee....

Agreed. 
 

If there’s a regime that has openly stated for decades that they want to eliminate you, then you cannot allow them to have nuclear weapons if you can stop it. It was always going to end with an intervention of some kind. They just waited until the plan was in place and there was a US President that is risk tolerant enough to let er rip. Now Israel will press their advantage to the fullest. Not going to go well for Iranians.

If they were caught by surprise then so were the Chinese and Russians. Assistance from them may not be as forthcoming as before their leadership was taken out. 

Posted
3 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

10/7 absolutely kicked off this season of war- and it's turning out to be one of the largest pyrrhic victories in the conflict to date (as far as I can tell) in that it's playing out horribly for Anti-Israel factions of every stripe.

It led to the crippling of communications for Hezbollah - they can’t use cell phones and they don’t trust pagers.  At the least, it’s probably reduced their effectiveness quite a bit.

Posted
3 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

It led to the crippling of communications for Hezbollah - they can’t use cell phones and they don’t trust pagers.  At the least, it’s probably reduced their effectiveness quite a bit.

Yes Duh GIFs | Tenor

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Posted
18 minutes ago, bolverk said:

Video clip below is same as the one posted above, showing when one missile got through. Posting this for the info.

image.png.01328c25fa87956135461787c2897056.png

 

Ballistic missiles are hard to intercept even with very sophisticated defenses. Given this one appears to have hit pretty close to where defensive launches are occurring, it seems Iran has enough information and capability to precisely target military positions in Israel. These don't appear to be random terror strikes on the city. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

How is the Dearborn Caucus taking this?

 

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

You'd think great, considering they voted for this, right?

Wait, you guys seriously think this wouldn't have happened under a current Harris admin? That this isn't a continuation of the already escalating back and forth strikes between Iran and Israel during the last year of the Biden admin?

 

10 minutes ago, Vegas64 said:

The point is that, as is mostly the case, two things are true at the same time.

1. Palestine, Israel, Hamas, etc. all have a sweeping history that spans decades if not centuries of conflict and 10/7 was just another in the long line of catalysmic event.

2. 10/7 absolutely kicked off this season of war- and it's turning out to be one of the largest pyrrhic victories in the conflict to date (as far as I can tell) in that it's playing out horribly for Anti-Israel factions of every stripe.

So talking about life at and after 10/7 and analyzing from that angle isn't "tunnel vision" @Brian Fantana.

I don't necessarily disagree with you, aside from the "centuries of conflict" silly notion, but the conquest of Iran (or at least its natural resources) has been one of the main goals of American hegemony for decades. Israel is the tool that we want to use to execute that and always has been.

Obviously, that's a touchy subject but I absolutely would love to see the mullahs fuck off and die, so long as the end result is good for Iranians. If we facilitate the decapitation of their government and they simply go from one oppressor to another, then what have we really done?

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

Ballistic missiles are hard to intercept even with very sophisticated defenses. Given this one appears to have hit pretty close to where defensive launches are occurring, it seems Iran has enough information and capability to precisely target military positions in Israel. These don't appear to be random terror strikes on the city. 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

 

Wait, you guys seriously think this wouldn't have happened under a current Harris admin? That this isn't a continuation of the already escalating back and forth strikes between Iran and Israel during the last year of the Biden admin?

 

I don't necessarily disagree with you, aside from the "centuries of conflict" silly notion, but the conquest of Iran (or at least its natural resources) has been one of the main goals of American hegemony for decades. Israel is the tool that we want to use to execute that and always has been.

Obviously, that's a touchy subject but I absolutely would love to see the mullahs fuck off and die, so long as the end result is good for Iranians. If we facilitate the decapitation of their government and they simply go from one oppressor to another, then what have we really done?

Israel didn't do this with American good in mind. Is it an unintended benefit to American foreign policy? Sure.

But lots of unintended winners and losers, as is always the case:

KSA and UAE and Iraq will pretend to scowl but they’ll quietly cheer the knee-capping of Iran’s nukes (which they’ve long condemned as destabalizing to their oil money and region), Ukraine is happy in that it hurts Russian munitions/drones, O&G folks are gonna be happy.

The funniest part is Russia and watching Russia try to keep a straight face when they condemn unilateral force and war on another sovereignity. 

Edited by Vegas64
Posted
Just now, Vegas64 said:

Israel didn't do this with American good in mind. Is it an unintended benefit to American foreign policy? Sure.

See this is where I can't agree, that this being in American interest is some unintended side effect.

Israel cannot do these things without our approval, weapons, and money, period. They can't. We are the hammer, Israel is the nail. It's always been that way and will continue to be that way. If we didn't want it to happen it would not happen.

Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Captainant said:

It does also give some heartburn insofar as the IDF has thoroughly demonstrated their ability to pinpoint target and reduce unnecessary casualities. And yet, they're dropping 2000lb JDAMs into city blocks in Gaza

“If your quarry goes to ground, leave no ground to go to.”

-The Operative

I can only imagine that the Hamas fighters weren’t as as precisely located as the bedroom of an Iranian military leader. They’re in this or under this building is likely the best targeting information they had in a much more fluid situation. 
 

Hamas’ habit of placing their infrastructure and bases under civilian sites and hospitals makes rooting them out problematic. 
 

Thats not excusing the destruction of whole city blocks, but perhaps the reasoning behind their choice of munitions and targeting. 

Edited by Bobby_Batronic
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Posted (edited)
10 minutes ago, Brian Fantana said:

See this is where I can't agree, that this being in American interest is some unintended side effect.

Israel cannot do these things without our approval, weapons, and money, period. They can't. We are the hammer, Israel is the nail. It's always been that way and will continue to be that way. If we didn't want it to happen it would not happen.

Depends on how granular you are being. Israel can't do this without the strategic alignment it enjoys from the U.S. (along with the explicit approval historically for such things, money, investments, arms, etc.). 

Did Israel have to call Daddy America and ask for permission to go to the movies and say they will be back by curfew? I don't think that's necessarily true. Especially when you consider the following:

1) Trump sucks

2) Bibi and Trump are already kinda fighting in a petty frenemy way when Israel got rebuffed weeks ago during the UAE/KSA/ME tour and by dealing directly with Iran and Houthis.

3) It's been reported that Bibi thought Trump was being played (strung along by Iran) and he's too dumb to know it and didn't comply to a direct request from this administration to not hit Iran yet

4) The mutually assured destruction chess pieces Iran had are all nerfed to complete levels of ineptitude so there is no "get back" now with Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas all being castrated.

5) Israel / IDF are some bad mother--watch my mouth! 

But seriously Mossad/IDF/Israel have shown some scary tight operational vigor for a country and population it's size. It's no wonder Wiz sold for $28 billion (j/k).

Edited by Vegas64
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Posted
1 minute ago, Vegas64 said:

Depends on how granular you are being. Israel can't do this without the strategic alignment it enjoys from the U.S. (along with the explicit approval historically for such things, money, investments, arms, etc.). 

Did Israel have to call Daddy America and ask for permission to go to the movies and say they will be back by curfew? I don't think that's necessarily true. Especially when you consider the following:

1) Trump sucks

2) Bibi and Trump are already kinda fighting in a petty frenemy way when Israel got rebuffed weeks ago during the UAE/KSA/ME tour and by dealing directly with Iran and Houthis.

3) It's been reported that Bibi thought Trump was being played (strung along by Iran) and he's too dumb to know it and didn't comply to a direct request from this administration to not hit Iran yet

4) The mutually assured destruction chess pieces Iran had are all nerfed to complete levels of ineptitude so there is no "get back" now with Houthis, Hezbollah and Hamas all being castrated.

5) Israel / IDF are some bad mother--what my mouth! 

But seriously Mossad/IDF/Israel have shown some scary tight operational vigor for a country and population it's size. It's no wonder Wiz sold for $28 billion (j/k).

Yeah I mean, we'll see and who knows if we'll ever know the full truth.

But yeah you're not wrong about the bolded part, either, they do some seriously bold, crazy, well-planned shit which makes some of the other shit they do even more infuriating sometimes.

Posted
7 hours ago, BabaYaga said:

Israel is fucking Hannakah Harry in the region….they know when you’ve been sleeping.    They know when you’re awake.   They know if you’ve been bad or good…..

Fixed.

 

IMG_2950.webp

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Posted
1 hour ago, Evil Bill Obrien said:

Yeahhh count me out for standing out on a balcony while there's ballistic missiles falling nearby...

It's Tel Aviv, they see more rockets falling from the sky than we do water in Central Texas.

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