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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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It feels like the committee is just waiting for Texas to goes out and throttle the same Texas Tech team that it took an Oregon 4th quarter comeback to beat. I think that data point really makes what should already be an open and shut case impossible to ignore. At that point, you'd have the best win of any team in country so far and games against a common opponent that looked drastically different. 

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19 hours ago, Sgt Hulk said:

Because they are better than us. Yall keep bringing tech up 11 weeks ago.  Teams approve throughout the year. They would pass for 7000 yards against us.  Head to head Oregon beats Texas. Hell a rematch with Bama we’d likely lose. We haven’t looked dominant in a while and we are getting by on our athletes.   All the teams ahead of us not FSU would beat us and that’s reality 

 

we are 10-1. It’s awesome but we are not dominant or clicking.  Yeah TCU made it to the title by skating on thin us and they got historically akullfucked nationally 

You don't think Oregon is getting by on it's athletes? They have exactly three wins over teams who are bowl eligible and are just running it up against the slop of the Pac 12 . Compare that to Texas who already has six and could potentially end the season with 9 of 11 wins coming against bowl eligible teams depending on weekend results. 

Texas SOS: 9

Oregon SOS: 63

Oregon has the worst SOS of any of the realistic CFP contenders outside of Georgia at 65. It's much easier to be Danny Almonte when you only have to get up for one game a month. 

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Lots of hand-wringing right now over something that has yet to occur. 

Let's see where we stand after rivalry week. 

FWIW there are plenty of data points that favor Texas vis a vis both Oregon and Bama (other than just our head to head win) should it come to that. 

I think we are due for some chaos.

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6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Lots of hand-wringing right now over something that has yet to occur. 

Let's see where we stand after rivalry week. 

FWIW there are plenty of data points that favor Texas vis a vis both Oregon and Bama (other than just our head to head win) should it come to that. 

I think we are due for some chaos.

Let's just not be a party to the chaos.

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20 hours ago, Mitch Cumsteen said:

If they put a one loss bama in over us then we should cancel the Michigan game next year and schedule incarnate word, because what's the point of even having that big intersectional game?

no, don't cancel it, just pay meatchicken to flip it back to 24 down here 28 up there

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35 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Lots of hand-wringing right now over something that has yet to occur. 

Let's see where we stand after rivalry week. 

FWIW there are plenty of data points that favor Texas vis a vis both Oregon and Bama (other than just our head to head win) should it come to that. 

I think we are due for some chaos.

That was week 6 for us but whatevs

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1 hour ago, ITHorn said:

You don't think Oregon is getting by on it's athletes? They have exactly three wins over teams who are bowl eligible and are just running it up against the slop of the Pac 12 . Compare that to Texas who already has six and could potentially end the season with 9 of 11 wins coming against bowl eligible teams depending on weekend results. 

Texas SOS: 9

Oregon SOS: 63

Oregon has the worst SOS of any of the realistic CFP contenders outside of Georgia at 65. It's much easier to be Danny Almonte when you only have to get up for one game a month. 

Per Sagarin SOS among the top 10:

Texas 2

Alabama 24

Washington 25

Missouri 26

Ohio St. 47

Oregon 57

Georgia 61

Michigan 63

Louisville 64

FSU 68

 

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39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

FWIW there are plenty of data points that favor Texas vis a vis both Oregon and Bama (other than just our head to head win) should it come to that. 

 

Time to get Sark all over the Saturday games to lobby that our resume > Oregon and remind everyone of the H2H win over Bama.  Channel some 2004 Mack Brown energy.

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39 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Lots of hand-wringing right now over something that has yet to occur. 

Let's see where we stand after rivalry week. 

FWIW there are plenty of data points that favor Texas vis a vis both Oregon and Bama (other than just our head to head win) should it come to that. 

I think we are due for some chaos.

We are WAY overdue.  Very little in the last 3 weeks.  Lets just hope we aren't directly involved.

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I was listening to ESPNU radio this afternoon and not sure who the two hosts talking were but a caller called in saying there is no way Bama should go over UT if they both win out.  The two hosts went on and on about how head to head really doesn’t matter and it’s all about the eye test and Bama is now better than UT.  It amazes me that over the last 10 plus years any narrative to fit Bama going to the playoffs or title game seems to be in play.   I sure hope that scenario doesn’t happen this way because I will lose my shit.

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I like this guy’s analysis of resumes, which includes the potential future results and how they stack up, at least according to his formula. Big takeaways are the CFP rankings highly overvalue Oregon and FSU. But we all know CFB rankings have always been highly based on number and recency of losses, and style points late in the season.

Also, the SEC has earned a lot of credit over the years, but I really wish more (read: any) of the national voices would actually scrutinize their 12-game schedules, namely the eight-game SEC slate and at least three (and often four) cupcakes most of them play in non-conference.
 

 

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On 11/19/2023 at 10:08 AM, Hondo said:

Got anything to add other than your faux aggressive, message board-tough tone?

But yeah, you're right.  OU scored with 15 seconds left.  The record has been corrected to be technically accurate.  All good now?

Woah woah do I have anything to add?  You're the dipshit.  I know more about this football team and this university and I'm guessing sports in general than you can come close to.  You made a stupid statement and you got checked.  

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12 hours ago, LonghornBreeder said:

One of the guys I work with occasionally is a Florida grad. I told him today that I'd be pulling for them to take down FSU. His response was, "Yeah, that ain't happening."

A sad state of affairs in Gainesville these days.

My uncle is the same way. It's just honesty at this point though. 

Mertz went full Tebow and hurt himself so both teams will have a backup QB. 

Florida's QB room is thin thin thin and no defense.  

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19 hours ago, The Dog said:

Lots of hand-wringing right now over something that has yet to occur. 

Let's see where we stand after rivalry week. 

FWIW there are plenty of data points that favor Texas vis a vis both Oregon and Bama (other than just our head to head win) should it come to that. 

I think we are due for some chaos.

I don’t disagree regarding Oregon; however, my primary question would be if that was the case then why has Oregon been ahead of Texas this entire time?  If Oregon beats washington they are in. If Oregon loses, they are out. So is there a needed comparison with them or am I missing something? (No coffee yet)

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1 minute ago, Pancho said:

I don’t disagree regarding Oregon; however, my primary question would be if that was the case then why has Oregon been ahead of Texas this entire time?  If Oregon beats washington they are in. If Oregon loses, they are out. So is there a needed comparison with them or am I missing something? (No coffee yet)

Because they've looked better for the most part and have a Heisman candidate QB. Now that Quinn is back and we took care of ISU on the road that could start to shift in our favor. A couple more strong showings and our SOS will be hard to compete with. Also, we have the eyeballs.

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2 minutes ago, mwaadeeb said:

Because they've looked better for the most part and have a Heisman candidate QB. 

Ahh you’re making the point I’ve been arguing on this board for weeks. The committee can use “eye test” and ignore resume and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. But now it feels like Texas vs Oregon is a moot point because if Oregon loses the P12 title game they are out and if they win it they are in. 
 

I heard someone on a college football podcast on Sunday say Texas needs to put up style points versus tech and whoever we play in the B12 title game just in case and I agree with that. 

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8 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don’t disagree regarding Oregon; however, my primary question would be if that was the case then why has Oregon been ahead of Texas this entire time?  If Oregon beats washington they are in. If Oregon loses, they are out. So is there a needed comparison with them or am I missing something? (No coffee yet)

1. Their loss to Washington looks better than our loss to OU

2. Oregon has looked unstoppable the last few weeks while we've been stumbling and could easily have 1-2 more losses, so no reason to re-evaluate.

Just MHO on their reasoning.

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

1. Their loss to Washington looks better than our loss to OU

2. Oregon has looked unstoppable the last few weeks while we've been stumbling and could easily have 1-2 more losses, so no reason to re-evaluate.

Just MHO on their reasoning.

I don’t disagree with any if this. It’s just unclear why your argument of data points (Texas vs Oregon) would suddenly come into play now when it hasn’t before, especially when it seems like Texas vs Oregon is moot because of their situation (win and in, lose—to OSU or Washington again—and out)

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1 minute ago, Pancho said:

I don’t disagree with any if this. It’s just unclear why your argument of data points (Texas vs Oregon) would suddenly come into play now when it hasn’t before, especially when it seems like Texas vs Oregon is moot because of their situation (win and in, lose—to OSU or Washington again—and out)

Because the CFP rankings at this point are just for show. They don't matter. The only one that matters is the final one when all games have been played.

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2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I don’t disagree with any if this. It’s just unclear why your argument of data points (Texas vs Oregon) would suddenly come into play now when it hasn’t before, especially when it seems like Texas vs Oregon is moot because of their situation (win and in, lose—to OSU or Washington again—and out)

In prior seasons, it seems like the committee does a do-over in the final ranking and is not afraid to reassess where teams were prior to that week.  Who knows what they do this year, but I do not think it is out of the question that they would reassess Oregon vs. Texas after the championship games.

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Florida couldn’t beat most high school teams right now so FSU is safe there. I really think they could lose in the ACC championship though. I think Lanning is a fraud and that Oregon state could take them out. I think the loser of Mich-Ohio St gets left out. Is it not safe to say we have a pretty realistic shot at getting in? 

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I think there are only 4 scenarios where we get in

1. Both Washington and Oregon lose this week to their in state rivals.

2. One of Washington or Oregon lose this week and then follows that up by winning the Pac 12.

3. The winner of Ohio State/Michigan loses to Iowa.

4. Florida State loses to either Florida or Louisville.

(4) is the only one that I think is going to happen, so I'm rooting hard for it.  The SEC champ is getting in no matter what; there's no sense spending time arguing about it. It makes you look naive to spend time suggesting they would leave them out.

I'm maybe slightly worried that (4) happens, Georgia loses, and the committee takes Georgia instead of Texas. But it's not a real worry. The only way I can see that happening is if our wins over Tech and the Big 12 runner up look like the TCU type win where no one thinks we look impressive.  And honestly, if play like that, a lot of us deep down won't think we're better than Georgia either.

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4 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

Honest question: am I the only one here who would be okay with a 13-1 season where we missed CFP? I imagine I'll get crucified for this.

I mean, it'd be fine, Sark would definitely have achieved everything we asked of him, but making the CFP would be a lot better.

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2014:

Top 4 before the conf champ games: Bama, Oregon, TCU*, FSU
After: Bama, Oregon, FSU, Ohio State
*TCU left out due to Big 12 not having a champ game and designating co-champs

2015:

Before: Clemson, Bama, OU, Iowa*
After: Clemson, Bama, Michigan State, OU
*Iowa drops out after losing the B1G Champ to MSU, who takes their spot

2017:

Before: Clemson, Auburn*, OU, Wisconsin
After: Clemson, OU, Georgia, Bama
*Auburn drops out after losing SEC champ game to Georgia, who moved in.  Bama also jumps in, as the other option is a 2-loss B1G champ or one-loss non-champ Wisconsin

2018:

Before: Alabama, Clemson, ND, Georgia*
After: Alabama Clemson, ND, OU
*Georgia drops out after losing SEC champ game and Big 12 champ OU moves in

2019:

Before: Ohio State, LSU, Clemson, Georgia*
After: LSU, Ohio State, Clemson, OU
*Georgia drops out after losing SEC champ game to LSU and Big 12 champ OU moves in

2021:

Before: Georgia, Michigan, Alabama, Cincinnati
After: Alabama, Michigan, Georgia, Cincinnati
*Georgia stays in despite losing to Alabama in the SEC champ game, but the only other option was 11-1 ND and a not undefeated ND is always going to be at a disadvantage

2022:

Before: Georgia, Michigan, TCU, USC*
After: Georgia, Michigan, TCU, Ohio State
*USC drops out after losing Pac 12 title game and Ohio State moves in because no one else has less than 2 losses
 

TLDR:

Georgia is not guaranteed to stay in if they lose to Bama, as the committee has historically put a 12-1 conference champion in ahead of a 1-loss non-champ.  The committee seems to care most about:

  • Conference championships
  • Number of losses

A 1-loss non-champ > a 2-loss conference champ, but a 1-loss conf champ > 1-loss non-conf champ.  2-loss conference champs get left out all the time in favor of 1-loss teams who didn't win their division. 

Anything can happen, but I don't see the committee giving 12-1 Georgia a bid over 12-1 Oregon or 12-1 Texas if those 2 win their CCGs. 

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20 minutes ago, fellside said:

I think there are only 4 scenarios where we get in

1. Both Washington and Oregon lose this week to their in state rivals.

2. One of Washington or Oregon lose this week and then follows that up by winning the Pac 12.

3. The winner of Ohio State/Michigan loses to Iowa.

4. Florida State loses to either Florida or Louisville.

(4) is the only one that I think is going to happen, so I'm rooting hard for it.  The SEC champ is getting in no matter what; there's no sense spending time arguing about it. It makes you look naive to spend time suggesting they would leave them out.

I'm maybe slightly worried that (4) happens, Georgia loses, and the committee takes Georgia instead of Texas. But it's not a real worry. The only way I can see that happening is if our wins over Tech and the Big 12 runner up look like the TCU type win where no one thinks we look impressive.  And honestly, if play like that, a lot of us deep down won't think we're better than Georgia either.

 

I think there is a real chance (maybe not >50%, but real), that if FSU loses, Bama wins out and Oregon wins out, Texas and Bama both make it in over Oregon. Yes it would require the committee to reverse Texas and Oregon even though Oregon’s most impressive two wins would have come in the final two weeks. But, if we beat Tech more handily than Oregon and Bama shows they can beat Georgia, that might be enough for the committee to latch onto. 

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Honest question: am I the only one here who would be okay with a 13-1 season where we missed CFP? I imagine I'll get crucified for this.

Define “okay with.”

If Texas goes 12-1, wins the Big 12, and is #5 looking up at 4 undefeated champs or 3 + 12-1 Oregon; as it stands today it’s hard to argue Texas is a top 4 team in that scenario. Should have gone for it at the end of the OU game, tough shit. Still unequivocally a great year. Anyone thinking that is underachieving and would not take that result is crazy.

The only plausible playoff scenario Texas would really have a legitimate gripe on is Alabama beating Georgia and vaulting over Texas for a spot. Honestly Alabama would have the more impressive body of work and if Texas’s signature win were over another team at the same rank I’d favor Alabama; but fuck that shit, it was litigated on the field in a two score game.

If you mean you’d rather miss the playoff because you would rather win a NY6 (not a guarantee) as opposed to playing a CFP semi as a likely underdog, yeah that is dumb aggy nonsense. You want to compete for a championship.
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12 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

Honest question: am I the only one here who would be okay with a 13-1 season where we missed CFP? I imagine I'll get crucified for this.

I’ve heard some analysts make this argument, that it would be better for both Sark and the program. I don’t agree with it but I can see why someone would/could make that argument.

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18 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

Honest question: am I the only one here who would be okay with a 13-1 season where we missed CFP? I imagine I'll get crucified for this.

I wouldn't be ok with it, but I also wouldn't be too angry, because I don't think we're one of the best four teams in the country. 

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4 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Define “okay with.”

If Texas goes 12-1, wins the Big 12, and is #5 looking up at 4 undefeated champs or 3 + 12-1 Oregon; as it stands today it’s hard to argue Texas is a top 4 team in that scenario. Should have gone for it at the end of the OU game, tough shit. Still unequivocally a great year. Anyone thinking that is underachieving and would not take that result is crazy.

If you mean you’d rather miss the playoff because you would rather win a NY6 (not a guarantee) as opposed to playing a CFP semi as a likely underdog, yeah that is dumb aggy nonsense. You want to compete for a championship.

Yeah, if we miss out by being #5 or #6 because there's 4 undefeated champs or because Oregon kills UW in the Pac 12 CCG, it is what it is.

But no, I don't want to miss the playoffs for a more guaranteed NY6 bowl win.  God, how awful would it be if we went the entire 10 year 4-team CFP period without ever making it? 

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19 hours ago, conVINCEd said:

Dear Gata,

We helped you guys win a natty by taking out Nebraska back in ‘96.  This would be a good weekend to return the favor.

We also would've skullfucked you in 2008, but our garbage ass conference let you beat ou instead.

So, help an old friend out, would ya?

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6 hours ago, Red Five said:

I wouldn't be ok with it, but I also wouldn't be too angry, because I don't think we're one of the best four teams in the country. 

The "best team in the NFL" doesn't always win the Super Bowl. It happens all the time. Texas can beat anyone in the country if they play well. Just get in the playoffs and see what happens. Fuck all this shit about being better off not going to the playoffs. Anyone that believes or says that has ulterior motives ie. wanting Bama ahead of Texas.

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13 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

I think there is a real chance (maybe not >50%, but real), that if FSU loses, Bama wins out and Oregon wins out, Texas and Bama both make it in over Oregon.

In this scenario, don’t all 3 of Texas, Oregon, and Bama make it? With the Michigan/OSU winner as the 1 seed. 

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10 minutes ago, UncleSonny said:

In this scenario, don’t all 3 of Texas, Oregon, and Bama make it? With the Michigan/OSU winner as the 1 seed. 

Yes because you'd have the following conference champs:

1. Undefeated B1G champ (unless Iowa pulls off a shocker - talk about chaos)

2. Texas, Oregon, Alabama, and whomever wins the ACC (doesn't matter even if it's FSU). The first three all get in over FSU. 

So here's a fun scenario - if Iowa wins the B1G then you'd have a LOT of 1 loss teams and no undefeateds (assuming Oregon and Bama win their conferences). 

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1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Ahh you’re making the point I’ve been arguing on this board for weeks. The committee can use “eye test” and ignore resume and there’s nothing anyone can do about it. But now it feels like Texas vs Oregon is a moot point because if Oregon loses the P12 title game they are out and if they win it they are in. 
 

I heard someone on a college football podcast on Sunday say Texas needs to put up style points versus tech and whoever we play in the B12 title game just in case and I agree with that. 

Of course style point matter, but they don't replace (or shouldn't) stated criteria

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34 minutes ago, gmr548 said:


Define “okay with.”

If Texas goes 12-1, wins the Big 12, and is #5 looking up at 4 undefeated champs or 3 + 12-1 Oregon; as it stands today it’s hard to argue Texas is a top 4 team in that scenario. Should have gone for it at the end of the OU game, tough shit. Still unequivocally a great year. Anyone thinking that is underachieving and would not take that result is crazy.

The only plausible playoff scenario Texas would really have a legitimate gripe on is Alabama beating Georgia and vaulting over Texas for a spot. Honestly Alabama would have the more impressive body of work and if Texas’s signature win were over another team at the same rank I’d favor Alabama; but fuck that shit, it was litigated on the field in a two score game.

If you mean you’d rather miss the playoff because you would rather win a NY6 (not a guarantee) as opposed to playing a CFP semi as a likely underdog, yeah that is dumb aggy nonsense. You want to compete for a championship.

What are you, a lawyer?

Almost all of these CFP scenarios have us on the outside looking in and my attitude is I don't care. If we went 13-1 but didn't get into CFP as the first team out, I'm okay with that because what a great fucking season that is. One of the best ever? I don't know, but still great. Probably one of the top 15-20 considering where we've been over the last decade+.

Do I hope we make CFP? Yes. Do I hope we win CFP? Yes. My point was it sounds like a lot of you are already doomsaying if we don't make CFP and I was just curious if I'm the only one here not doomsaying...because if we were to finish 13-1 but miss CFP, I would be okay with that.

And, bro, don't go throwing around aggy at me. I'm the third consecutive generation of my family to hang a diploma from The University of Texas at Austin on my wall and there's a National Championship ring in my immediate family. You can call me dumass. You can call me idoit. You can call me moran. But don't call me aggy.

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5 minutes ago, AnotherLawyer said:

What are you, a lawyer?

Almost all of these CFP scenarios have us on the outside looking in and my attitude is I don't care. If we went 13-1 but didn't get into CFP as the first team out, I'm okay with that because what a great fucking season that is. One of the best ever? I don't know, but still great. Probably one of the top 15-20 considering where we've been over the last decade+.

Do I hope we make CFP? Yes. Do I hope we win CFP? Yes. My point was it sounds like a lot of you are already doomsaying if we don't make CFP and I was just curious if I'm the only one here not doomsaying...because if we were to finish 13-1 but miss CFP, I would be okay with that.

And, bro, don't go throwing around aggy at me. I'm the third consecutive generation of my family to hang a diploma from The University of Texas at Austin on my wall and there's a National Championship ring in my immediate family. You can call me dumass. You can call me idoit. You can call me moran. But don't call me aggy.

Listen dumass, idiot, moran, if we win these next two convincingly, especially if one of them is OU, we should get in over the fucking ducks because they're fucking ducks and stupid, and if we don't, I'm going full Aaron Rodgers. 

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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