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THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]


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The Committee has complete freedom. There appear to be no rules, just "guidelines". If Bama squeaks by Georgia, I think there's a reasonable likelihood they both get in, and we and FSU are both fucked, regardless of our winning. If FSU wins, we won't get in over them anyway. We need FSU to lose, and either Georgia to win or for Bama to absolutely trash them.

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6 minutes ago, Texasborn91 said:

The Oregon boards are saying they would roll Tech by 50 also if they played today. PNW Aggy? 

I mean it's very fair to say that the Tech team we just saw was very different from the one Oregon did. And Oregon played them on the road in Week 2, probably spent most of the week trying to find Lubbock on a map.

Texas played them in the last week of the year, with the chance to clinch a CCG berth and stay in the CFP discussion, and having very obviously circled the game after a year of chirping from the Tech side. If Oregon was that motivated and playing at home against the Tech MASH unit they probably could win by 50. That doesn't mean Texas wasn't very impressive. I wouldn't take much more from the exercise than that.

2 minutes ago, DanTheHorn said:

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Okay this was funny lol

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6 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I’ll concede that we want chaos if FSU wins, but I will stand by my statement that we want chalk if they lose.

Agreed, but the order of the games is wrong on Saturday.  Conflicted interests while watching the SEC game.  

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25 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

His scenario leaves only one possibility for Texas to get in and eliminates several others. 

If Texas wins:

Texas is in if FSU loses. Nothing else matters. (There can be a maximum of 4 conference champs with 12-1 or better records, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and Big 10). 

Texas is in if Michigan loses. Nothing else matters. (There can be a maximum of 4 conference champs with 12-1 or better records, Big 12, Pac 12, SEC, and ACC). 

If both Michigan and FSU wins, our only chance is Oregon and Alabama winning, meaning 2 of Texas, Oregon, and Alabama will get in as 1 loss conference champions. Alabama would get in and then our h2h would come into play to drag us in over Oregon. 

There is simply no benefit to us to rooting for Georgia and Washington. None. Zero. 

 

If Texas beats OSU and Oregon beats #3 Washington, they're going to leave out Oregon...who is CURRENTLY ranked 2 spots ahead of Texas without the big win over #3 in play?  I don't see that happening. 

25 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Sagarin has #4 Oregon 1.94 points better than #7 Texas, similar gap to Texas vs OU (who interestingly is ranked 8 right behind Texas - big drop off there).

SP+ has Oregon 2.5 points better than #7 Texas, enormous gap after Bama who is basically tied with Texas so no real comp.

FPI has #3 Oregon 2.8 points better than #7 Texas, a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND (interestingly top 10 seems to be where most ratings are falling off a cliff)

The FEI gap between #2 Oregon and #7 Texas is equal to that between Texas and #21 USC/#22 Clemson.

#5 Texas is marginally ahead of #7 Oregon in Massey's ratings (8.88 vs 8.85, which is really a T-6 with Washington), which measure past performance, but Oregon has a power rating 2 points higher, again slightly bigger than the gap between Texas and OU.

KFord has #3 Oregon rated 2.3 points higher than #7 Texas, also a little wider than the gap between Texas and #11 ND.

Analytics generally suggest Oregon would be a pick'em against Texas on the road and provide a general consensus that one is a top 4 team and one isn't. That is a notable advantage in the context of picking the top 4 teams.

You forgot to include the metric that apparently trumps all.  The "but we're Texas" metric.

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6 minutes ago, Street2Peschel said:

What happens if Oregon beats Washington in a close game but Bo Nix goes down with a season ending injury.  Would THAT make Texas more appealing to the dipshits who are running this clown show?

Well Bo Nix definitely gets a martyr Heisman here.

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2 minutes ago, Tex Long said:

The Committee has complete freedom. There appear to be no rules, just "guidelines". If Bama squeaks by Georgia, I think there's a reasonable likelihood they both get in, and we and FSU are both fucked, regardless of our winning. If FSU wins, we won't get in over them anyway. We need FSU to lose, and either Georgia to win or for Bama to absolutely trash them.

DisGoneBeGood.gif

We have a decade of results that says that doesn't actually happen. The real problem is that people keep acting as if the preliminary rankings are anything other than an attempt to generate publicity. They don't fucking matter. 

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1 minute ago, bullet said:

Someone mentioned the committee:

Big 10 3 members

ACC 2

SEC 1

Pac 12 1

Big 12 1

MWC 1

AAC 1

Other 2 (Journalist and Virginia Union)

RC Slocum-interim AD at ASU, Aggie coach, not sure where you slot him.  Half SEC, half Pac 12?

RC is not on the committee

Jesus just use the Intergoogles

https://collegefootballplayoff.com/sports/selectioncommittee/roster

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5 minutes ago, Hondo said:

If Texas beats OSU and Oregon beats #3 Washington, they're going to leave out Oregon...who is CURRENTLY ranked 2 spots ahead of Texas without the big win over #3 in play?  I don't see that happening. 

Yes, if Alabama also wins, I think that is the most likely scenario. The primary way it doesn't happen is if Oregon blows out Washington and/or Texas struggles against okstate. At any rate, it certainly has a hell of a lot better chance of getting Texas in than any other scenario where FSU and Michigan win. Rooting for Georgia and Washington is rooting against our own self interest. We get no benefit from those two winning. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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38 minutes ago, The Dog said:

We need Bama to lose because if they win in this case then we are out.

they couldn’t have telegraphed this more - Georgia is in no mattter what. 

Jesus Christ you are a fucking idiot and continue to post stupid shit. Please let the adults discuss this.

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4 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

I don’t know why people think Louisville winning is so far fetched. They were going to be #9 this week minus the loss. They can beat fsu. 

It's not crazy (like Iowa over Mich), but still only around ~25% chance based on the odds.  But there is a better chance Bama wins over Georgia.  As much as everyone is doom and gloom, Texas still has a decent shot.  If you believe ESPN's predictor (which looks reasonable to me), we are sitting at about 50/50 shot of making playoffs (near 100% if FSU loses and still a decent shot if Bama wins).  Texas chances are actually not that much lower than Georgia's chances, but Georgia controls their destiny.  

image.thumb.png.23b68e7e0e499066ab440d815e17d55e.png 

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1 minute ago, BigBenBamboozle said:

This gnashing of teeth over Oregon is going to seem so silly after Louisville and Georgia win.

Just wait. If Oregon win Friday night, the meltdown will be insane. Even though the only 2 games that matter for us are the Big 12 and ACC championships 

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I wish Blacklab would lay the ban hammer on these stupid fucks still nashing their teeth about Oregon. The committee has made it clear that eye test + possible Bo Nix heisman trumps all the metrics that have been discussed ad naseum.

The Pac12 champ is in no matter what. Michigan is in (they're not losing to Iowa) 

1. FSU loses, we're in

2. Bama beats Georgia, we're more than likely in. 

End of story. For fucks sake.

Edited by Hmbre97
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7 minutes ago, RockyMountainHighHorn said:

I don’t know why people think Louisville winning is so far fetched. They were going to be #9 this week minus the loss. They can beat fsu. 

There are teams with a history of wining and there are the Louisville's of the world that get close but just seem to find a way to screw it up. I hope that is not the case Saturday but I will enjoy the hell out of Texas win all day long with a Louisville win being the cherry on top but a loss by them will not define my Saturday.

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1 minute ago, Hmbre97 said:

I wish Blacklab would lay the ban hammer on these stupid fucks still nashing their teeth about Oregon. The committee has made it clear that eye test + possible Bo Nis heisman trumps all the metrics that have been discussed ad naseum.

The Pac12 champ is in no matter what. Michigan is in (they're not losing to Iowa) 

1. FSU loses, we're in

2. Bama beats Georgia, we're more than likely in. 

End of story. For fucks sake.

I’m not confident we go over Bama, the people worrying about Georgia also going in this scenario need therapy though.

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11 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

We have a decade of results that says that doesn't actually happen.  

No, we don't. We have results that say two teams from the same conference can get in, and have done so... like last season... Argue about other circumstances if you like, but don't claim it can't happen. It fucking well can - I seriously doubt that it will, but it sure as hell ain't impossible or without precedent.

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Just now, Hank_Hill said:

I’m not confident we go over Bama, the people worrying about Georgia also going in this scenario need therapy though.

I’d say the people who think Ohio State is in ahead of us should be lobotomized, but it’s clear they already were

 

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Just wait. If Oregon win Friday night, the meltdown will be insane. Even though the only 2 games that matter for us are the Big 12 and ACC championships 

I'm trying to figure out why anyone thinks Oregon winning is bad. There is no scenario where we get in over an undefeated Washington. We don't benefit at all if Washington wins. We have a chance (even if folks mistakenly think it's small) if Oregon wins. 

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We've reached the penultimate rankings of the season, and the committee hasn't had to do a lot of moving and shaking. Thanks to an unprecedented year of success for the favorites -- teams ranked in the top eight are 89-7 with all seven losses coming to top-13 opponents -- it's been mostly rinse and repeat.

But since the majority of the top 25 won't play again until bowl season, the committee's choices this week resonate more than most, and that means a few big names and playoff regulars have good reason to gripe.

_end_rule.png251.png&h=60&w=60333.png&h=60&w=60

1. Texas Longhorns (11-1, No. 7) and Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, No. 😎

The committee has made it clear since its first set of rankings this year that there's a lot of love in the room for Ohio State, but boy -- this still seems like a bit of a stretch, doesn't it?

A quick look at how the four one-loss teams stack up:

Top-35 wins by FPI (essentially a "Quad 1" win)
Alabama, 5
Texas, 5
Ohio State, 3
Oregon, 3

Wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents
Alabama, 7
Texas, 7
Ohio State, 6
Oregon, 5

Wins vs. winning Power 5 opponents
Alabama, 5
Texas, 4
Ohio State, 4
Oregon, 3

Strength of record
Ohio State, 5
Texas, 6
Alabama, 7
Oregon, 8

 

Alabama is one of four one-loss teams. Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sportsnone

That last category certainly helps Ohio State's case, though the eye test suggests it's a bit dubious. Ohio State has two marquee wins: Notre Dame and Penn State. Both are good teams, ranked in the top 20 by the committee, and suggest the Buckeyes are worthy of discussion. But Notre Dame also got smoked by Louisville and lost to a reeling Clemsonteam fresh off a Dabo Swinney radio rant, all meanwhile Penn State was unaware it was legal to throw a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame's best win, in retrospect, came against NC State. Penn State's résumé begins and ends with Iowa. Are we absolutely sure it's the résumé builders the committee thinks it is?

Of course, ranking Oregon ahead of all of them is even more preposterous, given the Ducks' lack of résumé, but that problem will take care of itself in the Pac-12 title game.

Ohio State, meanwhile, is just sitting in the clubhouse, waiting for chaos, enjoying its place in the pecking order ahead of Texas and Alabama and certainly well aware that, at this point in the season, no team ranked worse than sixth has made the playoff.

It's certainly possible that, should Bama or Texas add the all-important "conference champion" label to its résumé, the committee will see to adjusting these standings. But it's also possible the committee sees a delicate issue of an Alabama-Texas debate (the Tide are red hot, the Horns hold the head-to-head win) and have decided to take a note from Iowa and punt on the issue altogether, as it did in 2014 when it ignored the thorny Baylor-or-TCU debate in favor of ... Ohio State!

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38999326/cfp-rankings-anger-index-conference-championship-week-2023

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1 minute ago, Tex Long said:

No, we don't. We have results that say two teams from the same conference can get in, and have done so... like last season... Argue about other circumstances if you like, but don't claim it can't happen. It fucking well can - I seriously doubt that it will, but it sure as hell ain't impossible or without precedent.

You’re looking at them without context. It’s been explained. Not our fault you won’t read it 

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Just now, Hank_Hill said:

I’m not confident we go over Bama, the people worrying about Georgia also going in this scenario need therapy though.

Nah, I'm not worried about Alabama unless they run Georgia out of the building like we did Tech. We have poll momentum over them much like Oregon has over us. There is no interesting story with Alabama either; no possible heisman winner, fatigue of seeing Bama in the playoff, our H2H win. 

I'd eat a pile of white crusted over dog shit if Alabama pulled out a squeeker over Georgia and got in over us if we handle our business vs OSU.

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27 minutes ago, Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand said:

Not that you're necessarily arguing this-

-Texas's win over Bama doesn't count as much cuz it was at the beginning of the season

-Also, Georgia's loss doesn't count as much because it came at the end of the year to the team Texas beat

Bro, we've seen this committee over the years tie themselves in knots to explain away 2 SEC teams getting in. Do I think it will happen, most likely no. I don't think Bama is beating Georgia unless Bama just has a perfect day. But I could very easily see Bama winning then we get the "see, this Bama team is different from the one Texas beat...Milroe was a different player". I could also see "it's hard to go undefeated in the SEC and Georgia did that all year until their final slip up". "The Big 12 just isn't as tough as the SEC and Texas lost to a 2 loss team". Granted that would have to be combined with FSU losing. Total chaos scenario. I won't even entertain Iowa winning. 

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1 minute ago, Tex Long said:

No, we don't. We have results that say two teams from the same conference can get in, and have done so... like last season... Argue about other circumstances if you like, but don't claim it can't happen. It fucking well can - I seriously doubt that it will, but it sure as hell ain't impossible or without precedent.

Never happened over conference champions of the same record. The opposite has in fact happened. A conference champion has jumped a non-conference champion multiple times. 

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Just now, mdmost said:

Bro, we've seen this committee over the years tie themselves in knots to explain away 2 SEC teams getting in. Do I think it will happen, most likely no. I don't think Bama is beating Georgia unless Bama just has a perfect day. But I could very easily see Bama winning then we get the "see, this Bama team is different from the one Texas beat...Milroe was a different player". I could also see "it's hard to go undefeated in the SEC and Georgia did that all year until their final slip up". Granted that would have to be combined with FSU losing. Total chaos scenario. I won't even entertain Iowa winning. 

When? The only time multiple teams from the same conference have gotten in is when they have better records than the conference champions. That isn't knots. It's lack of other options. I swear, people are mixing up the playoffs with the old BCS. 

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1 hour ago, dcar00 said:

say it with me SOS doesn't matter.  schedule cupcakes and beat everyone's ass as bad as possible.

This has been the Michigan strategy for the last 2 years and it’s worked perfectly. Play a 2 season game and win the conference and you’re in. UO didn’t even do that this year and they’re going to be in with a win. The risk of playing heavyweights in the OOC isn’t worth it. Congrats to the committee on the devaluation of the first month of college football. If this is how it’s going to be we should just play 8-9 conference games and then start a 32 or 64 team playoff.

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1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

When? The only time multiple teams from the same conference have gotten in is when they have better records than the conference champions. That isn't knots. It's lack of other options. I swear, people are mixing up the playoffs with the old BCS. 

This. Undefeated > 1 loss P5 champ > 1 loss non champ > 2 loss P5 champ 

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5 minutes ago, The Dog said:

We've reached the penultimate rankings of the season, and the committee hasn't had to do a lot of moving and shaking. Thanks to an unprecedented year of success for the favorites -- teams ranked in the top eight are 89-7 with all seven losses coming to top-13 opponents -- it's been mostly rinse and repeat.

But since the majority of the top 25 won't play again until bowl season, the committee's choices this week resonate more than most, and that means a few big names and playoff regulars have good reason to gripe.

_end_rule.png251.png&h=60&w=60333.png&h=60&w=60

1. Texas Longhorns (11-1, No. 7) and Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1, No. 😎

The committee has made it clear since its first set of rankings this year that there's a lot of love in the room for Ohio State, but boy -- this still seems like a bit of a stretch, doesn't it?

A quick look at how the four one-loss teams stack up:

Top-35 wins by FPI (essentially a "Quad 1" win)
Alabama, 5
Texas, 5
Ohio State, 3
Oregon, 3

Wins vs. bowl-eligible opponents
Alabama, 7
Texas, 7
Ohio State, 6
Oregon, 5

Wins vs. winning Power 5 opponents
Alabama, 5
Texas, 4
Ohio State, 4
Oregon, 3

Strength of record
Ohio State, 5
Texas, 6
Alabama, 7
Oregon, 8

 

Alabama is one of four one-loss teams. Gary Cosby Jr.-USA TODAY Sportsnone

That last category certainly helps Ohio State's case, though the eye test suggests it's a bit dubious. Ohio State has two marquee wins: Notre Dame and Penn State. Both are good teams, ranked in the top 20 by the committee, and suggest the Buckeyes are worthy of discussion. But Notre Dame also got smoked by Louisville and lost to a reeling Clemsonteam fresh off a Dabo Swinney radio rant, all meanwhile Penn State was unaware it was legal to throw a pass beyond the line of scrimmage. Notre Dame's best win, in retrospect, came against NC State. Penn State's résumé begins and ends with Iowa. Are we absolutely sure it's the résumé builders the committee thinks it is?

Of course, ranking Oregon ahead of all of them is even more preposterous, given the Ducks' lack of résumé, but that problem will take care of itself in the Pac-12 title game.

Ohio State, meanwhile, is just sitting in the clubhouse, waiting for chaos, enjoying its place in the pecking order ahead of Texas and Alabama and certainly well aware that, at this point in the season, no team ranked worse than sixth has made the playoff.

It's certainly possible that, should Bama or Texas add the all-important "conference champion" label to its résumé, the committee will see to adjusting these standings. But it's also possible the committee sees a delicate issue of an Alabama-Texas debate (the Tide are red hot, the Horns hold the head-to-head win) and have decided to take a note from Iowa and punt on the issue altogether, as it did in 2014 when it ignored the thorny Baylor-or-TCU debate in favor of ... Ohio State!

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38999326/cfp-rankings-anger-index-conference-championship-week-2023

 

Please pull your head out of your ass and go look up who was the 2014 B1G champ and the results from that conf game. Then once you get some context about what happened and why in 2014, stick your head back up your ass and suffocate yourself.

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  • immamac changed the title to THE College Football Playoff Rankings Thread [MICH,WASH,TEX,ALA]

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