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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

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32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Look I get that polls are polls and people should be skeptical. But when Trump was leading in every public poll post-debate, they were gospel to the media. Now Tapper is saying don’t believe them because Harris is leading. And your sources are who? 

 

This first chart has been posted before, but I think it very relevant. It looks a bit confusing at first, but this tracks the gender gap on new voter registration.   The orange is 2020 and the blue is 2024.     The percentage is the greater percentage of women than men registering.

Take a look at swinging states Ohio and Michigan

IMG_3253.thumb.png.82f10a64891465f35a236b5aeec9e48f.png

it shows 6.6 and 4.9% more women than men new registering in 2024.  

Now look at the second chart showing women in Louisiana registration.

IMG_3254.thumb.png.4d812b77afed6464158789c17749f8a7.png

it shows in Louisiana that in 2020 there were more women than men registering with a 13% advantage to the GOP.  After Biden dropped out there is a landslide of women registering with a 14% advantage to Democratic voters. 

The other thing is, the women are all younger voters and most of them African-American.   The bottom line is this ground swell of newly registered voters are mostly going to be voting for Harris, being that younger females lead the demographic.   Nevada and Florida have abortion rights on the ballot.  But preventing a national abortion ban is on everyone’s ballot by implication.     If an abortion rights bill can win in red State Kansas, this could well be a wildcard that results in several percentage points in favor of Harris.  

I am guessing that this issue has not been totally baked into the polls yet.  

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1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

Take a look at swinging states Ohio and Michigan

Mark Cuban Notes GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

3 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Mark Cuban Notes GIFs - Find & Share on GIPHY

Ummm if you want Ohio women, go ahead.

We all know you got your eye on Big Gretch instead.

Edited by Js1

9 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I am guessing that this issue has not been totally baked into the polls yet.  

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

Georgia

 

 

30 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

Low energy

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29 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

"Someone in his orbit should stage an intervention before his “doctor” kills him."

Mixed Martial Arts No GIF by UFC

31 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

Yeah, I hope they intervene.

33 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

He just doesn’t know how to read very well. You can tell when he comes to a comma and doesn’t pause when he’s supposed to. He’s on the teleprompter and has no idea what the speech is about until he hears the words come out of his mouth. 

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

A whole lot of this. I don’t think the polls are accurately capturing the groundswell support from young voters particularly young women. Harris has tons of energy and charisma and doesn’t have the baggage, deserved or not, that Hilary did which is creating a lot more excitement. Combined with everyone knows at this point what you’re going to get with a second Trump term and you’ve got a lot of motivated younger voters. We just have to keep them engaged for the next couple of months and make sure they show up at the polls in November. I hope Dems make a huge early voting push to get those voters to vote when it’s convenient for them.

13 minutes ago, royiv said:

A whole lot of this. I don’t think the polls are accurately capturing the groundswell support from young voters particularly young women. Harris has tons of energy and charisma and doesn’t have the baggage, deserved or not, that Hilary did which is creating a lot more excitement. Combined with everyone knows at this point what you’re going to get with a second Trump term and you’ve got a lot of motivated younger voters. We just have to keep them engaged for the next couple of months and make sure they show up at the polls in November. I hope Dems make a huge early voting push to get those voters to vote when it’s convenient for them.

Early voting will always be the D strategy. Get those votes banked. First ballots go out in 2 weeks 

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

21 minutes ago, royiv said:

Low energy

 

SDE 

18 minutes ago, Frank The Tank said:

He just doesn’t know how to read very well. You can tell when he comes to a comma and doesn’t pause when he’s supposed to. He’s on the teleprompter and has no idea what the speech is about until he hears the words come out of his mouth. 

 

he reads on an elementary school level, if that 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Kaplan Strategies: Harris, 52, Trump 45 (GCB: Dems +3, 44-41)

Kaplan is the pollster associated with Redstate.com and had Trump up 15 in MI and 10 in PA in April.  Don't worry, they spun this as "Harris cannot pull away from Trump" in a poll where she is up 7 lol 

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

10 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

Not polling, but performances: 

These were all pre-Harris though.  That CO-04 race was, as mentioned, super wonky because it was also the primary and the GOP had a very contested primary with Boebert switching to CO-04. 

If the combined 2023/24 specials are pointing to a D+2/3 environment pre-Harris, you have to think she's bumped that up to +3/4.  So nearly in line with polling. 

 

 

1 minute ago, TeeDubya said:

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

Generic Congressional Ballot

Edited by Js1

7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

he reads on an elementary school level, if that 

But....  only the very best elementary school level.  They don't want you to know that!  Tremendous reading.

Just now, TeeDubya said:

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

General Congressional Ballot (Q: do you want a dem or republican for your congressional rep? A: 44% Dems, 41% Reps)

1 minute ago, TeeDubya said:

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

generic congressional ballot

7 hours ago, The Dog said:

You are correct in that point.

However, they've used the argument that the agreement was settled before in order to keep Trump from bailing and doing additional debates. Now they are trying to flip the script and make changes? 

The Harris campaign is trying to have it both ways.

Tough shit.  Team dotard needs the debate(s) a lot more than Harris does at this point.

15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of Bible stuff..

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/christians-kamala-can-pull-evangelical-voters-away-donald-trump-rcna167561

How I’ve been convincing Christians they don’t have to vote Republican

Democrats need to embrace the idea that evangelicals, and especially white male evangelicals, are worth winning and can be won.

By Doug Pagitt, executive director of Vote Common Good

During the last month, Christians for Kamala joined the ranks of groups supporting Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. In so doing, they stand beside groups as wide-ranging as Comics for Kamala and Deadheads for Kamala. Because Harris has shown she will include us all in her vision for the United States and bring together what has been torn apart, all of these groups have seized upon the newfound enthusiasm among the electorate since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris.

A religious coalition such as this entering the chat is an important step in the right direction, and, if built upon, could help sway enough movable religious voters in critical battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. What’s more, it could mean breaking the stronghold that MAGA forces have on many of our country’s evangelical voters. Thanks in part to the cooperation of so many self-identified Christian voters, the MAGA movement has seized control of the Republican Party and helped lead our country down a dark, democracy-threatening path.

Central to our work at Vote Common Good, I spend a lot of my time traveling the country speaking to voters, particularly evangelical and Catholic voters who are hardwired into voting Republican, working to get them to break out of those patterns. What I’ve learned is that most don’t want or need their elected leader to be like them, but they really do want their leader to like them. It wasn’t clear that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton liked evangelical and Catholic men when she ran for president in 2016, and it remains largely unclear to many of these voters in 2024 if Kamala Harris does. Trump, on the other hand, probably doesn’t like them, but he put his arms around these voters in a transactional exchange, and he promised and in some cases delivered them power.

But on the trail in 2020, 2022 and this year, I’ve gleaned the reason many evangelical and Christian voters ultimately leave Trump: his obvious lack of kindness. A poll that my organization Vote Common Good commissioned in 2020 showed that in swing states, Trump’s lack of kindness was driving evangelical and Catholic voters away in large enough numbers to potentially affect the outcome of the election.

Voters typically realize that the way they vote reflects on them. And those religious voters who defected from Trump didn’t like the way his unkindness reflected on them, whether it be putting migrant children in cages, the way he treats women, the way he treats the press, the way he treats nearly everyone who left his administration and the way he treats democracy itself. Many of these voters know that’s not the behavior they want their children to emulate.

The Harris campaign clearly knows it has an opportunity here. The choice of Tim Walz as vice presidential nominee is in no small part evidence of that. But it isn’t nearly enough. Democrats more broadly need to embrace the idea that evangelicals, and especially white male evangelicals, are worth winning and can be won without the party compromising its values.

What it’s going to take is a concerted, grassroots effort to reach these voters, listen to them and bring them along on a journey to help them understand it’s OK for them to let concern for the common good, and not allegiance to a political party, determine how they vote. We need to tell them that what Democrats are pushing for lines up with the values evangelicals hold dear — making the world better and bringing people together. Those policies include commonsense gun reform to keep kids safe, engaging solutions at the border and lowering the cost of child care. Many Christians are heartbroken at the idea that they have to choose between a faith that’s meaningful to them and a political identity that has been wedded to it. They don’t know what to do, and we need to help them separate those two identities.

---

More at the link above.

Fuck 'em.  They enabled the monster, they can clean up his shit.

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Two anecdotes:

 

1) the boy messaged us and asked us to order him a camo Harris Walz hat.  No such luck.  Completely sold out.  Seriously, not on back order -- SOLD OUT.

2) at lunch at the Tavern, GOLL correctly observed that Jim Hightower was sitting at the bar, having a snack and making some notes.  I had to go to the bar to close out, and chatted him up, asked him how he's feeling about things.  "We had a great week last week -- I mean we democrats."  I told him "well not just us democrats, all of us, right?"  He was pretty pleased with that.  He said that he loved Walz, and told me he actually went up to Minn to work for his campaign when he first ran for Congress. "He was just a teacher then, and he's the same guy now.  His football team introduced him, and they really do think that highly of him."  I asked him how he was feeling about our chances - "We're going to win.  I don't remember when I've seen enthusiasm and energy like this."  I told him I was surprised by how organized and focused the party was now, and he chuckled "me too, but they are."

Hightower was always a great Texas character, agree or disagree with him.  Was cool to chat with him.

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2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Fuck 'em.  They enabled the monster, they can clean up his shit.

More importantly: they aren't "Christians" (followers of Christ).  They don't believe in a single fucking thing that Jesus Christ tells them to believe/do, and they actually believe in/act contrary to almost everything Christ said.  They think Matthew 25 is blasphemous communism...instead of it being the central message of the Gospels.

Don't appeal to American evangelical Christians with actual thoughts on real-deal Christianity -- it only pisses them off and entrenches them more.  

19 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

 

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not polling, but performances: 

These were all pre-Harris though.  That CO-04 race was, as mentioned, super wonky because it was also the primary and the GOP had a very contested primary with Boebert switching to CO-04. 

If the combined 2023/24 specials are pointing to a D+2/3 environment pre-Harris, you have to think she's bumped that up to +3/4.  So nearly in line with polling. 

 

 

Generic Congressional Ballot

To add to this, Washington state runs a combined primary where the top 2 candidates advance to the general election regardless of party. Statewide results in early August were anywhere from the D+13 to D+16 range, which would indicate a pretty similar environment to 2020 where WA was D+13 for governor and D+15-16 for most other statewide races. Was Biden +20 but that's because it's a particularly bad state for Trump demographically (lots of whites who played school). Presidential primary was back in March and not included in the top two primary earlier this month.

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Two anecdotes:

 

1) the boy messaged us and asked us to order him a camo Harris Walz hat.  No such luck.  Completely sold out.  Seriously, not on back order -- SOLD OUT.

2) at lunch at the Tavern, GOLL correctly observed that Jim Hightower was sitting at the bar, having a snack and making some notes.  I had to go to the bar to close out, and chatted him up, asked him how he's feeling about things.  "We had a great week last week -- I mean we democrats."  I told him "well not just us democrats, all of us, right?"  He was pretty pleased with that.  He said that he loved Walz, and told me he actually went up to Minn to work for his campaign when he first ran for Congress. "He was just a teacher then, and he's the same guy now.  His football team introduced him, and they really do think that highly of him."  I asked him how he was feeling about our chances - "We're going to win.  I don't remember when I've seen enthusiasm and energy like this."  I told him I was surprised by how organized and focused the party was now, and he chuckled "me too, but they are."

Hightower was always a great Texas character, agree or disagree with him.  Was cool to chat with him.

csb

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

To add to this, Washington state runs a combined primary where the top 2 candidates advance to the general election regardless of party. Statewide results in early August were anywhere from the D+13 to D+16 range, which would indicate a pretty similar environment to 2020 where WA was D+13 for governor and D+15-16 for most other statewide races. Was Biden +20 but that's because it's a particularly bad state for Trump demographically (lots of whites who played school). Presidential primary was back in March and not included in the top two primary earlier this month.

Yes, the Washington results were better than 2020 but not as good as 2018. So D+3-4 range. They are similar to 2016’s numbers, but Dems got crushed in rural WA in 2016 primary, which was a huge warning sign. Rural WA results in 2024 were 5 points better than 2016 and 1.3 points better for Dems than 2020 

https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/?amp=1

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yes, the Washington results were better than 2020 but not as good as 2018. So D+3-4 range. They are similar to 2016’s numbers, but Dems got crushed in rural WA in 2016 primary, which was a huge warning sign. Rural WA results in 2024 were 5 points better than 2016 and 1.3 points better for Dems than 2020 

https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/?amp=1

Dotard ain't getting within 3-4 points of Harris in Washington.  Biden won it 58.0 to 38.8.

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Dotard ain't getting within 3-4 points of Harris in Washington.  Biden won it 58.0 to 38.8.

That’s not what it says. Go read the article. The results of the WA primary heavily predict the national lean because WA‘s demographics mirror the country’s in terms of share of white voters and college education levels

Trump will lose badly in WA, but it’s likely to be a D+3/4 down ballot for the WHOLE country. WA Dems were  D+16 in the house vote 

Edited by Js1

3 hours ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

IMG_0160.jpeg

RIP

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s not what it says. Go read the article. The results of the WA primary heavily predict the national lean because WA‘s demographics mirror the country’s in terms of share of white voters and college education levels

Trump will lose badly in WA, but it’s likely to be a D+3/4 down ballot for the WHOLE country. WA Dems were  D+16 in the house vote 

Got it.

22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

More importantly: they aren't "Christians" (followers of Christ).  They don't believe in a single fucking thing that Jesus Christ tells them to believe/do, and they actually believe in/act contrary to almost everything Christ said.  They think Matthew 25 is blasphemous communism...instead of it being the central message of the Gospels.

Don't appeal to American evangelical Christians with actual thoughts on real-deal Christianity -- it only pisses them off and entrenches them more.  

They don’t have to believe in or follow that beta shit. All they need is to believe that Jesus is their savior and the son of god.   Boom- Christian.  And I guess a baptism so that Jesus knows you mean it. 

1 hour ago, Frank The Tank said:

has no idea what the speech is about until he hears the words come out of his mouth

Haven't we all been there though?

Haven't we all been there though?

I have no idea what he’s talking about after it comes out of his mouth.
1 minute ago, Tuco said:


I have no idea what he’s talking about after it comes out of his mouth.

GIF by Cool GIFs Only!!

Busy day today.

Can someone point me to the post where Pimphand or others dropped in to explain how Biden/Harris are responsible for the record high Dow close?

  • Popular Post

Oh, another Walz bit I forgot from my quick chat with Hightower.  I commented that the GQP keeps trying to attack him, but they have nothing, and he answered "there's nothing for them to use.  He's exactly who he is, and he hasn't run from anything he's done."  I mentioned "sure, like saying if you want to call feeding school kids lunch is communism, have at it."  Jim said "yep, there's nothing he needs to run from."  Walz was the first thing he mentioned when I chatted him up, and he flat-out says he's the real-deal and what you see is what you get.

I just think it's so damned refreshing.  

3 hours ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Looks like a saddlebag with eyes. He kilt a bare wif a nife.

🎵 Kilt him a bar when he was sixty-three 🎵

  • Popular Post

#traitor #putinspuppet 

 

IMG_1658.jpeg

Edited by tx 3 putt

2 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Two anecdotes:

 

1) the boy messaged us and asked us to order him a camo Harris Walz hat.  No such luck.  Completely sold out.  Seriously, not on back order -- SOLD OUT.

2) at lunch at the Tavern, GOLL correctly observed that Jim Hightower was sitting at the bar, having a snack and making some notes.  I had to go to the bar to close out, and chatted him up, asked him how he's feeling about things.  "We had a great week last week -- I mean we democrats."  I told him "well not just us democrats, all of us, right?"  He was pretty pleased with that.  He said that he loved Walz, and told me he actually went up to Minn to work for his campaign when he first ran for Congress. "He was just a teacher then, and he's the same guy now.  His football team introduced him, and they really do think that highly of him."  I asked him how he was feeling about our chances - "We're going to win.  I don't remember when I've seen enthusiasm and energy like this."  I told him I was surprised by how organized and focused the party was now, and he chuckled "me too, but they are."

Hightower was always a great Texas character, agree or disagree with him.  Was cool to chat with him.

So GOLL stuck you with the check (or, should I say stuck one of your clients with the check)? 

41 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

#traitor #putinspuppet 

 

 

Did somebody ask Donald where in the contract it specifies that if one of the partners is delinquent the others will fail to defend them?

And isn't it ironic that the man who has contracted so much to so many ---- from Trump University to independent contractors on his construction sites to cities like El Paso and Green Bay ---- and not paid off is talking like this?

Edited by Hornius Emeritus

image.thumb.jpeg.29ee827e58d844bb7f5f795f077df75b.jpeg

But, keep in mind, that money doesn’t include the PACs. Miriam Adelson didn’t pledge $100M to the campaign, she pledged it to a PAC.
2 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

he reads on an elementary school level, if that 

 

And his horde respects the fact that he's undereducated.

Not being part of the "intellectual elite" makes him more trustworthy.

That's how completely fucked this country is.  Trump losing would buy us some time and avert the impending disaster, but there's still a very stupid reckoning coming.

12 minutes ago, Tuco said:


But, keep in mind, that money doesn’t include the PACs. Miriam Adelson didn’t pledge $100M to the campaign, she pledged it to a PAC.

It's the difference in field offices and volunteers that stands out IMHO.

2 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

 

And his horde respects the fact that he's undereducated.

Not being part of the "intellectual elite" makes him more trustworthy.

That's how completely fucked this country is.  Trump losing would buy us some time and avert the impending disaster, but there's still a very stupid reckoning coming.

Coming?  That reckoning is already occurring.

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